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A
Technical Recommendations
Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation
Pepper NCDEX Apr-12 Trading Range 42800 – 46470
Jeera NCDEX Apr-12 Buy above 13360 TP 13560/13780 SL 13000
TMC NCDEX Apr-12 Trading Range 4200 – 4470
Chilli NCDEX Apr-12 Buy in the range 5640-5610 TP 5855/5970
SL 5480
Cardamom MCX Apr-12 Trading Range - 1170 – 1320
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Pepper
Review
Pepper prices continued bullish trend during last week on cues from prevailing supply crunch across the spot markets.
Futures started the week on negative note continuing the corrections started in the of previous week. However, later on
prices turned bullish due to supply shortage at terminal market. According to trade sources, traders are directly buying
from growers which is creating tight supply situation across the spot markets. Trend in global pepper market also
remained firm amid tight supply form Vietnam. Therefore, on cues from prevailing fundamentals futures prices also
remain firm making a new all time high everyday and ended the week on higher note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 41850 43700 39920 43360 4.28 41513 44.47 7119 17.92May-12 41930 44305 40240 43885 4.70 4566 36.54 1829 31.02Jun-12 41900 44530 40300 44110 5.20 474 -35.16 295 5.73
Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday
Outlook
Pepper prices are expected to continue the bullish trend on cues from strong demand amid tight supply situation.
According to trade sources, traders and growers both are holding back their stock due to continuous rise In prices.
Overall trend in global pepper market is also remaining firm as supply from all the major countries are remaining thin
in anticipation of further rise in prices. However, India parity in international market is at $8400-8800 per MT which
much higher than any other origin. Thus, higher Indian quotes might affect exports demand for Indian pepper limiting
huge gains.
Factors to watch out
Average daily prices at spot market of Kochi increased to `38,400 and `40,400 per quintal for Ungarbled and MG-1
grade respectively
In February 2012, Brazil exported 1,679 mt of pepper valued at $11.8 million. the export was significantly lower
when compared to the export in February 2011 and a continuous decrease from exports in the previous months.
this reflected that current stock in brazil is very thin
-120
-20
80
180
280
380
480
580
680Pepper Spread : May - Apr
Contango
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35000
37000
39000
41000
43000
45000
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000PVO Analysis - Pepper
Open Interest Volume Price
Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses were at 1974 tonnes as on March 15 , 2011
As per Spices Board data, international price of pepper in New York market remained steady to $7.83 per kg during
the week ended March 9 , 2011 but quoted higher against $5.51 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 37173 38547 40953 43360 44733 46107 48513May-12 37250 38745 41315 43885 45380 46875 49445Jun-12 37200 38750 41430 44110 45660 47210 49890
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis
The NCDEX Pepper April contract prices, volumes and
open interest have increased. It is a good indication that
market is attracting larger numbers of traders willing to
open positions from the long side and hold them. Traders
are more confident that prices will continue to climb in
favor of a working long.
Technical
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Jeera
Review
Jeera prices traded continued the bearish trend amid poor domestic demand during the week ended on Mar. 17th.
Futures started the week on negative note extending previous week’s corrections. Rising arrivals amid peak arrival
season along with subdued domestic and export demand further added to the down side. However, prices took smart
recovery on short covering during the week but failed to sustain the gains. Rise in arrivals of fresh crop pulled down the
prices at both spot and futures front. Therefore, on cues from spot activity futures prices ended the week on negative
note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 13580 13580 12877.5 13157.5 -2.97 43167 51.40 17979 16.96May-12 13870 13870 13162.5 13457.5 -2.83 9126 75.43 6366 52.88Jun-12 14100 14100 13455 13677.5 -4.00 2033 384.00 480 87.00
Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday
Outlook
Jeera prices are projected to remain under pressure on cues from prevailing subdued spot market activities. According
to trade sources, bulk buyers and stockiest are staying away from market in anticipation of further fall in prices.
However, a small recovery during the week can be seen at lower levels as market is in oversold zone, but this recovery
might remain short live due to prevailing weak fundamentals.
Factors to watch out
Arrivals at spot market of Unjha are hovering in the range of 26000-28000 bags (1 bag= 60 Kg.); while traded
quantity is remaining 20000-22000 bags
Production is estimates around 40-45 lakh bags against 28-30 lakh bags last year which might further add t the
down side
NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 6026 tonnes as on March 15, 2011
As per Spices Board data, international price of jeera in New York market declined to $3.79 per kg during the week
ended march 9th, 2011 however, against $3.84 per kg in the same period last year
200
250
300
350
Jeera Spread : May - Apr
Contango
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12800
13000
13200
13400
13600
13800
14000
14200
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
PVO Analysis - Jeera
Open Interest Volume Price
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 12128 12503 12830 13158 13533 13908 14235May-12 12416 12789 13123 13458 13831 14204 14538Jun-12 12743 13099 13388 13678 14033 14389 14678
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis
The NCDEX jeera April contract prices have decline
while volumes and open interest have increased. It
indicates that new money is coming into the market,
showing aggressive new short selling. This scenario will
prove out a continuation of a downtrend.
Technical
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Turmeric
Review
NCDEX turmeric prices continued the downtrend on back of huge arrivals witnessed at domestic markets across the
countries. From starting of the week prices traded down in continuation of bearish trend. Poor buying interest from
both bulk buyers and exporters kept prices under pressure. However, later on futures took smart recovery on fresh
buying from local masla buyers. Nonetheless, overall trend remained weak as farmers increased supply in lieu of higher
prices which reflected in futures prices also. Huge supply across the spot market pulled down the prices. Therefore, on
cues from spot market activities futures prices traded down and ended the week on bearish note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 4424 4444 4204 4258 -4.66 59970 23.92 22460 1.61May-12 4534 4534 4250 4308 -5.32 24660 85.07 14150 35.99Jun-12 4504 4510 4252 4378 -4.49 4760 143.48 4915 26.19
Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday
Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected trade lower on rising arrivals across the spot markets. According to trade sources, though
some traders have received fresh orders but supply is so huge at market that might outweigh the impact of fresh buying
from north Indian buyers. Bumper crop production is weighing on market sentiments keeping prices under pressure.
Any rise in prices might result in increase in supply dragging down the prices.
Factors to watch out
As per trade sources, daily arrivals at spot market of Erode increased to 20,000 bags while selling remained 50-60%
of total arrivals (1bag=70Kg.)
Exporters have not received fresh orders now and they are expecting March 10th they will get order till then they are
not interested in bulk buying
Turmeric production estimates from current year are around 82 lakh bags against 65-68 lakh bags last year
NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 1079 tonnes as on March 15, 2011
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Turmeric Spread : May - Apr
Contango
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4100
4300
4500
4700
4900
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000 PVO Analysis - Turmeric
Open Interest Volume Price
As per Spices Board data, international price of Turmeric in New York market remained unchanged to $5.62 per kg
during the week ended March 9th, 2011 lower from $5.29 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 3920 4062 4160 4258 4400 4542 4640May-12 3910 4080 4194 4308 4478 4648 4762Jun-12 3992 4122 4250 4378 4508 4638 4766
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis
The NCDEX Turmeric April contract prices have
declined while volumes and open interest have
declined. It indicates that new money is coming into
the market, showing aggressive new short selling.
This scenario will prove out a continuation of a
downtrend or bearish trend.
Technical
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Chilli
Review Chilli prices continued the bearish trend for 2nd consecutive week amid poor demand at domestic front. Futures started
the week on lower note on extended losses. However, later on prices reversed the trend and witnessed smart recovery
on lower level buying but failed to sustain the gains. Huge arrivals of fresh crop along with poor export demand further
added to the down side. Therefore, on cues from futures prices traded down and closed on negative note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 5888 5888 5480 5726 -1.95 18630 32.60 6440 25.17Jun-12 6200 6248 5892 6116 -2.49 3190 47.34 2045 37.25
Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday
Outlook
Chilli prices are expected to trade on a mixed note on cues from sluggish spot market activity. Poor export demand from
for Indian chilli is likely to have negative impact on prices. However, recent decline in arrivals might support the prices
to recover during the week. Demand from domestic buyers in small amount might also add to the prices.
Factors to watch out
Arrivals at Guntur chilli market were reported more than 1 lakh bags a day (1 bag=40Kg.)
As per data released by Spices board, during Apr-Dec, 2011 export of chilli was around 1,53,500 tones down by 19
% Y/Y
Prevailing poor export demand amid pesticide residue in Indian chilli also indicates that chilli export for 2011-12
are likely to remain lower
Chilli production estimates for this season is estimated around 12.5-13 lakh tonnes v/s 10.5- 11 lakh tones last year
NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 1760 tonnes as on March 15, 2011
As per Spices Board data, international price of chilli in New York market declined to $3.20 per kg during the week
ended March 9th, 2011 down against $3.64 per kg quoted in the same period last year
380
400
420
440
460
480
500Chilli spread : Jun - Apr
Contango
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5400
5600
5800
6000
6200
6400
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000PVO Analysis - Chilli
Open Interest Volume Price
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 5100 5290 5508 5726 5916 6106 6324Jun-12 5567 5729 5923 6116 6279 6441 6635
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis
The NCDEX chilli April contract prices have declined
while volumes and open interest have declined. It
indicates that trend is still bearish but as compared to
previous week fall is limited. Therefore, a small recovery
can be expected in coming days at lower levels.
Technical
A strong break out
through the
deciding channel
in chilli
continuation chart
keeps the prices in
positive territory.
Initial bias is
remains neutral
this week and
expected to
continue the rally
towards the next
resistance of 5855
then 5970 levels,
which is 38.2 &
50% Fibonacci
levels for its
previous fall, starts
from 6464 to
5480. However, incase of any fall on the downside will holds at 5610 levels and bring some buying pressure for the
same. Weekly momentum indicator RSI-14 period trading at 0.50 levels by supporting our bullish view, an upside
crossover from the Mov Avg in MACD is also another aspect for taking bullish view in coming sessions.
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Cardamom
Review
Cardamom futures resumed bullish trend during the week ended on March 17th after witnessing corrections on profit
booking. From starting of the week futures traded higher on follow though buying. Good demand at domestic as well as
export front pushed the prices on higher note. Though prices witnessed small corrections during the week but overall
positive trend remained intact which was also reflected in higher export ate offered by exporters. Thus, on cues from
spot activity futures prices traded up and ended on positive note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 1015 1178.2 1008.9 1178.2 16.77 62072 84.79 7785 29.32May-12 1070.7 1242.8 1065 1242.8 17.66 11988 92.76 1529 46.60Jun-12 1114.9 1121.2 1078 1100 17.75 1114 139.23 398 54.02
Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday
Outlook Cardamom futures are expected to continue the bullish trend on strong domestic and export demand. Heavy buying
from local buyers and exporters as harvesting season is coming to an end is supporting prices at spot front. However,
prices might take decent corrections on profit booking during the days, but these corrections are expected to create
further buying opportunity in near term. According to traders, prevailing dryer weather in major growing regions of
Kerala are creating concern for next season crop and pushing prices on higher side.
Factors to watch out
Arrivals Daily auction has declined to 40-55 tonnes while average prices hovered in the range of Rs. 700-840 per
Kg.
According to data released by Spices board, cardamom exports during Apr-Dec, 2011 were up by 389% to 3450
tons against same period in last year
Total arrivals during the current season from August 1, 2011 to March 11, 2012 was at 14,264 tonnes and the sales
at 13,848 tonnes as against 7,684 tonnes of arrivals and 7,499 tonnes sales in the same period last year
MCX warehouse stocks of Cardamom as on March 15, 2011 were 17 tonnes
40
45
50
55
60
65
70Cardamom Spread : May - Apr
Contango
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900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
20000PVO Analysis - Cardamom
Open Interest Volume Price
As per Spices Board data, international price of Cardamom in Saudi Arabia market improved to $18.42 per kg
during the week ended February 10, 2011; however, it was lower than $29.88 per kg quoted in the same period
last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 896 952 1065 1178 1235 1291 1404May-12 946 1006 1124 1243 1302 1361 1480Jun-12 1035 1057 1078 1100 1121 1143 1165
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis
The MCX cardamom March contract prices, volumes
and open interest have increased. It indicates that
Market is attracting larger numbers of traders
willing to open positions from the long side and
hold them. Traders are more confident that prices
will continue to climb in favor of a working long.
Technical
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