Skills for the future
Skills for future Europe: Skills for future Europe: New evidence from new forecastNew evidence from new forecast
Vladimir Kvetan
Cedefop
Skills for the future
General picture• Challenges involved in implementing tools and principles
for education, training and learning • Connecting point - Learning outcomes • Wider policy strategy
– Need for increased action on national and EU levels – complementary approach
– Importance of improving cooperation between stakeholders
– Need for coherent approach for validating learning at the workplace
Skills for the future
General picture (2)
• Key actions:– Increase of transparency of education and training to improve
the relevance of qualification– Develop common qualifications standards and curricula and
promotion of validation and competence measurement– Technical and operational support to all sectoral initiatives– Support and develop mutual trust and communication between
partners competent authorities and stakeholders– Identify and assess future skills and competences
• http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/events/18446.aspx
Skills for the future
Cedefop’s skill needs analysisCedefop’s skill needs analysis
Forecasting Forecasting (macro trends)(macro trends)
Sectoral & Sectoral & occupational studiesoccupational studies
EmployerEmployer surveysurvey
Mismatch researchMismatch research
http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/identifying-skills-needs/index.aspx
Skills for the future
The new Cedefop skills forecastThe new Cedefop skills forecast
• provides projections of skill supply and demand• provides first analysis/indicators of LM imbalances
Current approach:• is based on improved methodology and data• uses econometric modelling and time series• uses official data sources (primarily Eurostat: Europop
2010, National accounts and LFS; DG ECFIN)• covers EU-27, Norway, Switzerland (and CCs)• covers period up to 2020 • assumes modest recovery and a return to job growth
Skills for the future
Key resultsKey results• more than 83 million job opportunities due to:
– a modest net increase in employment of around 8 million new jobs (expansion demand); and
– around 75 million jobs that will need to be filled as people retire or leave the workforce (replacement demand)
• job opportunities in all types of occupations, but most at the higher and lower end of the job spectrum possible risk of job polarisation
– the trend towards more skill-intensive jobs at all levels will continue and many traditional manual or routine jobs will decline
– Place for growth in non-routine tasks even for low skilled• Structural changes
– most job opportunities will be in services – Impact on manufacturing and primary industry not so hard as expected
• a more highly-qualified workforce, with more than 80% of people having at least medium-level qualifications in 2020
• skill demand will lag behind skill supply and brings risk of over-qualification in the short-term
Skills for the future
Impact of the recession on the employment Impact of the recession on the employment in EU-27+in EU-27+
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
205
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
245
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Million jobs crisis
5,5 million job losses
8 million new jobs
forecast
Skills for the future
Impact of the recession on the employment Impact of the recession on the employment in EU-27+ (cont.)in EU-27+ (cont.)
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Sectoral developmentsSectoral developments in Europe in Europe(EU 27)(EU 27)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Millions
Distribution & transport
Business & other services
Non-marketed services
Manufacturing
Construction
Primary sector & utilities
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Employment in manufacturing sector (EU 27)
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Growth and uncertainty: sectorsGrowth and uncertainty: sectors
Uncertainty High Low
Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing nes Mechanical Engineering Water Supply Motor Vehicles Retailing Construction Water Transport Distribution Communications Hotels & Catering Banking & Finance Land Transport etc Computing Services Air Transport Professional Services Insurance Other Business Services Education Miscellaneous Services
Hig
h
Health & Social Work Oil & Gas etc Agriculture etc Food, Drink & Tobacco Coal Wood & Paper Other Mining Printing & Publishing Textiles, Clothing & Leather Chemicals nes Manufactured Fuels Rubber & Plastics Metal Goods Non-Metallic Mineral Product Electronics Basic Metals Other Transport Equipment Electrical Eng. & Instruments Gas Supply
Gro
wth
rate
201
0-20
20
Low
Electricity
Public Administration & Defence
Source: Cedefop forecast 2012
Skills for the future
Developments in occupationsDevelopments in occupations-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Legislators, senior offi cials and managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerks
Service workers and shop and market sales workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
Net change (expansion demand) Replacement demand
83 million job opportunities between 2010-2020
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
million jobs
Skills for the future
Structural and occupation specific Structural and occupation specific componentscomponents
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Legis lators , senior offi cia ls and managers
Profess ionals
Technicians and associate profess ionals
Clerks
Service workers and shop and market sa les workers
Ski l l agricul tura l and fi shery workers
Craft and related workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
Structura l component Occupation specifi c componentSource: Cedefop (2012)
Skills for the future
Demand for qualificationsDemand for qualifications
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Low qualification
Medium qualification
High qualification
Net change (expansion demand) Replacement demand
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
million jobs
Skills for the future
Labour force by qualificationLabour force by qualification
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020
Mill
ions
Low qualification Medium qualification High qualification
37 %
47 %
22 %
47 %
31 % 24 % 16 %
47 %
29 %
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Highly qualified youth and womenHighly qualified youth and women
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Ageing in Europe Ageing in Europe (change between 2010 and 2020)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
mill
ion
Population Labour force
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Matching demand and supplyMatching demand and supply
Broadly: trends in both skill demand and supply go in the same direction
BUT
supply rises faster (highly qualified)
demand rises slower (crisis effect)
RISK OF SKILL MISMATCH
Skills for the future
Matching demand and supply: Matching demand and supply: difficulty to hiredifficulty to hire
Source: Cedefop (2012)
Skills for the future
Employment by qualificationsEmployment by qualifications
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020
Legislators,senior officialsand managers
Professionals Techniciansand associateprofessionals
Clerks Service shopand market
sales workers
Skilledagriculturaland fishery
workers
Craft andrelated trades
workers
Plant/machineoperators and
assemblers
Elementaryoccupations
High
Medium
Low
million jobs
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Skills mix by occupation in manufacturing sector (EU 27)
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Employment by qualificationsEmployment by qualifications (plant and machine operators) (plant and machine operators)
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
New data and results ONLINE New data and results ONLINE
Look for
at www.cedefop.europa.eu
Skills for the future
ConclusionsConclusions
• High unemployment vs. skill shortages
• Due to the crisis supply of higher qualifications rises faster than demand
• Matching calls for the „right“ skillsMore detailed skill analysesPartnershipsGuidance and counselling
Skills for the future
Thank you for your attention
More information:www.cedefop.europa.eu
Access the forecast data and results online at www.cedefop.europa.eu!