School Place Planning Meeting
Shrewsbury Area
Monday, 6 June 2016
Shrewsbury Training & Development Centre
Welcome and introductions
Purpose of Meeting
• Outline the Shropshire position in respect of school place
planning, through to 2026 - the end of the current ‘Plan Period’
• Contextualise against the Government’s proposed changes in
education policy
• Review the forecast position for the Shrewsbury school place
planning area
• Seek the views of the key local educational stakeholders on the
ways forward in securing additional provision of school places
in the planning area
• Outline and agree the next steps
Legal Duties
• Council has a statutory duty to plan, organise and commission sufficient
school places for every school age child in the county whose parents
choose to educate them in the state funded sector
• As strategic commissioner the Council forecasts the level of demand and
supply of school places, providing the right number of places in the right
locations at the right time
• Forecasting is a complex task, taking into account: school capacities,
current pupil numbers, known pre-school children and planned housing
developments
• Council employs tried and tested methodology for forecasting future
demand
• Increasingly challenging as the educational landscape changes, in
particular as schools move out of maintained control
National Context
• Education White paper – Educational Excellence Everywhere – indicates
councils will retain legal responsibility for ensuring all children have a
school place
• All schools still expected to become, or be in the process of becoming
academies in the next 6 years, despite the announcement on 6 May
• Move to a national fair funding formula from 2019/20
• LGA have raised concerns about the limited powers of Councils to
properly discharge place planning duties - indications are that legislative
changes are being proposed
• Councils cannot currently determine or change the number of places or
pupil range of academies
• Ongoing commissioning role will be wholly dependent on legislative
change and effective working relationships with other providers ie
academies and multi-academy trusts
School Place Planning Document
• Document circulated to all schools and academies in February 2016
• Available on the Shropshire Learning Gateway at
https://www.shropshirelg.net/services/school-place-planning/
• Provides a position statement on arrangements for education provision
in Shropshire based on current forecasts
• Provides overview of likely supply and demand issues in the coming
years and identifies areas in which there are forecast pressures on
school places
• Also highlights areas of falling rolls and potential sustainability issues
• Engages with education stakeholders in the strategic process for school
place planning in these specific areas
• Has led to a round of initial meetings in a number of school place
planning areas
School and Pupil Demographics
• Nationally, Government has identified the need for an additional
600,000 school places up to 2020
• Shropshire is bucking the national trend for pupil growth with a
forecast demographic decline in pupil numbers over the same period
– currently estimated at 3.2% (excluding housing development)
• Individual schools and communities of schools are forecast to see a
rise in surplus places by 2020
• Out of Shropshire’s 16 place planning areas, 5 will experience
pressure on pupil places by 2026, due primarily to housing
developments – Shrewsbury is one of the 5
• However, within these areas the position for individual schools will be
contrasting, with some having pressure for places and others facing
falling school rolls and possible sustainability issues
Shrewsbury Planning Area
Shrewsbury Primary Catchment Areas
Shrewsbury School Planning Areas
South & West
North
Centre & East
Housing Developments
• The forecasts used in the data analyses include housing developments
that had permission by 31 March 2015
• Other applications that have not received permission by this date or
have been submitted since are monitored and included in the long term
forecasts
• The housing factor used at primary level for the Shrewsbury planning
area is 0.1770 ie for every 100 dwellings an average of 18 primary
pupils are expected from the development
• The housing factor used at secondary level for the Shrewsbury planning
area is 0.1414 ie an average of 14 secondary pupils per 100 dwellings
• The funding for any capital works due to large scale housing is
expected, by the Government, to be funded by developer contributions
Shrewsbury Town SAMDev
• The Site Allocations and Management of Development Plan (SAMDev)
for the town has identified a housing guideline of 6,500 dwellings by 2026
• Allocations of around 3,760 dwellings have been made and are shown by
development on the next slide
• Analysed over the 3 school planning areas, the 3,760 dwellings are
distributed as follows:
North Shrewsbury – 330 dwellings
Central & East Shrewsbury – 1,930 dwellings
South & West Shrewsbury – 1,500 dwellings
• It is anticipated that the balance of around 2,740 dwellings will be
delivered through what is termed ‘windfall development’ over the Plan
Period to 2026
• Work is now underway to partially review the Local Plan, which will
identify development needs across Shropshire up to 2036
In and Out of Area Analysis
• School expansions are required where current provision
does not meet the demand for catchment area pupils
• Reminder: right number of places in the right locations at
the right time
• Displacement can be expected where school numbers
include significant numbers of children from outside the
school’s catchment area
• Displacement can benefit schools who experience
catchment area children historically moving out of area
and can therefore support sustainability
Pupil Forecasts for Shrewsbury Planning Area
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Shrewsbury Planning AreaTotal Number on Roll 2010-15 and Forecast to 2023
Primary Age Range 4-11 (7 year groups) Secondary Age Range 11-16 (5 year groups)
Primary Schools Total Net Capacity Secondary School Net Capacity
Pupil Number Forecasts
Schools
Current Forecasts
Net Capacity Admission NumberNumber on Roll
October 2015
2016/1
7
2017/1
8
2018/1
9
2019/2
0
2020/2
1
2021/2
2
2022/2
3
North Shrewsbury
Grange Primary 420 60 227 234 242 243 235
Greenacres Primary 210 30 135 143 143 138 134
Harlescott Junior 360 90 340 347 351 359 373
Mount Pleasant Primary 238 34 263 258 263 260 267
Sundorne Infant 270 90 270 269 268 274 285
Total North Shrewsbury 1,498 304 1,235 1,251 1,267 1,274 1,294
Centre & East Shrewsbury
Belvidere Primary 238 34 230 225 223 207 191
Coleham Primary 420 60 413 408 414 399 407
Crowmoor Primary 210 30 183 200 211 221 225
Greenfields Primary 350 50 352 355 354 367 367
Martin Wilson Primary 238 34 190 201 211 221 230
Mereside CE Primary 350 50 236 241 257 249 262
Shrewsbury Catholic Cathedral Primary 210 30 138 141 141 141 140
St. Giles' CE Primary 322 46 326 318 316 290 280
Wilfred Owen Primary 210 30 206 205 213 209 207
Total Centre & East Shrewsbury 2,548 364 2,274 2,294 2,340 2,304 2,309
South & West Shrewsbury
Meole Brace CE Primary and Nursery 350 50 319 327 347 334 328
Oxon CE Primary 420 60 411 427 449 457 475
Radbrook Primary 315 45 306 311 302 288 282
St. George's Junior 360 90 353 348 358 357 361
Woodfield Infant 270 90 264 265 249 247 213
Total South & West Shrewsbury 1,715 335 1,653 1,678 1,705 1,683 1,659
Rural Shrewsbury
Oakmeadow CE Primary and Nursery 420 60 343 363 384 402 397
St. Lucia's CE Primary 112 16 104 104 107 108 95
Total Rural Shrewsbury 532 76 447 467 491 510 492
Total Shrewsbury Primary 6,293 1,079 5,609 5,690 5,803 5,771 5,754
Belvidere School 840 168 814 804 810 816 822 820 841 872
Meole Brace School 1,215 243 1,210 1,217 1,215 1,234 1,252 1,260 1,276 1,292
The Priory School 840 168 837 838 838 849 845 845 856 868
Shrewsbury Academy 1,185 237 835 823 828 866 873 884 909 929
Total Shrewsbury Secondary 4,080 816 3,696 3,682 3,691 3,765 3,792 3,809 3,882 3,961
Note: The changes to the capacities and PANs for Mount Pleasant Primary and Martin Wilson are not reflected in the table above
Shrewsbury Primary
Catchment Area Pupils Other Shrewsbury Pupils Out of Area Pupils Unfilled Places
1,683 pupils
27.6%
213 pupils
3.5%
612 pupils
10.1%
Primary Catchment Area Analysis – October 2015
Total Shrewsbury
Catchment (excl Cathedral
School) = 6,083 pupils
3,575 pupils
58.8%
Primary Pupil Number Forecasts
5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
6200
6400
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Academic Year
Total Schools' Net Capacity
October 2015 Numbers on Roll
Total Pupil Numbers Forecast
Shrewsbury Secondary
136 pupils
3.3%
418 pupils
10.3%
Secondary Catchment Area Analysis – October 2015
Total Shrewsbury
Catchment = 4,080 pupils
3,526 pupils
86.4%
Catchment Area Pupils Out of Area Pupils Unfilled Places
Secondary Pupil Forecasts
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
4100
4200
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
Academic Year
Secondary School - Pupil Numbers Forecast
Total Secondary NumbersForecast
Total Schools' Net Capacity
October 2015 Numbers onRoll
Shrewsbury School Place Planning Area
• Localised issues continue to be proactively managed
• North – additional places at Mount Pleasant and Sundorne Infant in
the short to medium term to meet the increase in forecast demand
• Centre & East – additional provision at Mereside in longer term to
meet demand – consideration towards enhancement of other schools
to meet increased demand resulting from housing developments
• South & West – additional places required in medium to longer term
to meet demand – limited scope to expand existing schools may
require new school provision
• Secondary – additional places will be required in the medium to
longer term to meet demand from in-area secondary age pupils
Shrewsbury School Place Planning Area
• Primary school place requirement in Shrewsbury across the
plan period to 2025/26 is for 422 places forecast as follows:
• Secondary school place requirement in Shrewsbury across the
plan period to 2025/26 is for 370 places forecast as follows:
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26
32
C&E
31
N
117
S&W
90C&E/S&W
90C&E/S&W
62C&E/S&W
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26
60 150 160
Shrewsbury School Place Planning Area
Considerations:
• Location and completion of housing developments relative to the school
sites
• Constraints and/or limitations for expansion on current sites in Shrewsbury
• Possible re-designation of existing accommodation back into classrooms
• Identification of other options and/or sites in the town
• Efficient and effective use of capital resources
• Ongoing discussions/dialogue with schools in both primary and secondary
phases
• Consultation on catchment area reorganisation
• Looking beyond the current plan period and future-proofing for growth in
the town post 2026
• Regular reviews based on up-to-date and refreshed data eg what
happened in 2016 admissions and transfer rounds
Any further comments and/or perspectives?