RPSEA Overview and Project Status
NCAR Earth System LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric Research
NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially supported by the Willis Research Network and the Research Program to Secure Energy for America
Greg Holland
1
Workshop ScheduleMonday 8 March: Overview and Methodology13:00-15:00 Overview and Project Status
13:00-13:40 Progress Overview (Greg Holland)13:40-14:05 Offshore Industry Perspective (Cort Cooper)14:05-14:35 GFDL Research (Tom Knutson)
14:35-15:00 Other Recent Research (Greg Holland) 15:00-15:20 Afternoon Tea 15:20-17:00 Methodology
15:20-15:45 Model Set-up (Cindy Bruyere)15:45-16:10 Sensitivity Studies (James Done)16:10-16:35 Comparison with Other Studies (Greg Holland)
16:35-17:00 Hurricane Intensity (Greg Holland)17:00-17:30 General Discussion17:30-18:30 Reception at NCAR,19:00 Dinner at Dushanbe 2Holland RPSEA Overview 0310
Workshop ScheduleTuesday 9 March: Results and Future Work08:30-10:35 Results Part 1
08:30-08:55 Identifying Model Hurricanes (Asuka Suzuki) 08:55-09:20 Hurricane Frequency (Asuka Suzuki)09:20-09:55 Statistical Downscaling (Cindy Bruyere)09:55-10:25 Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling (Asuka Suzuki )
10:30-11:00 Morning Tea 11:00-11:45 Results Part 2
10:45-12:00 Importance for Offshore Energy Industry (James Done)
11:45-13:00 Lunch (provided) and also a brief tour of NCAR for those who are interested
13:0-15:00 Wrap UpGeneral Discussion (Cort Cooper, Chair)Next Stages (Greg Holland, Chair)
15:00-16:00 Afternoon Tea and Informal Discussion, then close
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Project Overview and Status
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Task 1: Model Set-Up and Initial Testing
1. Analysis of 1995-2005 period. Done
2. Test and further develop and test two statistical downscaling approaches:
• Hurricane Genesis Potential (GP) climatological relationship of Emanuel and Nolan (2004); Done
• Development of a new downscaling technique to help specify the climatology of the more intense hurricanes using modeling simulations at 12 and 4 km resolution; Done
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Genesis Potential IndexGP 105 RH 850
30
3 Vpot
70
3
1 0.1Vshear 2
absolute vorticity
Vpot potential intensity
Vshear shear between 850hPa and 200hPa
Emanuel and Nolan (2004)Camargo (2007)
Presentation on statistical downscaling by Cindy Bruyere
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Channel Model Simulations
Observation1995 - 2000
Regional Model1995 - 2000
Presentation by James Done on model sensitivity and uncertainty
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Task 2: Intermediate Testing
• 50-y simulations of current climate and comparisons of both atmosphere and GOM ocean: Done– Compare multiyear-trends in wind
shear in the North Atlantic hurricane latitudes of the free-running results to that in the assimilating results; Done, led to bias correction to CCSM
– Compare multi-year trends in mixed-layer ocean temperature. Done
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NCEP/NCAR ReanalysisCCSM
Windshear Bias in CCSM
Presentation on model set up by Cindy Bruyere and comparison with other studies by Greg Holland
9
Regional Model: New Results
Presentation by Asuka Suzuki on Frequency
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Task 3: 50-Y Forecasts
WRF12 kmWRF
36 km Imag
e by
Ste
ve D
ayo
@U
CA
R
CCSM ~ 150 km
CC
SM ~
150
km
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Task 3: 50-Y Forecasts
• 11-y Time slices: 1995-2005, 2020-2030, 2045-2055:– 36 km resolution; Done– 12 km resolution; Under way at
Argonne NL– Selected 4-km simulations; Awaiting 12
km
• New Task: 25 km global simulation with full CCSM. On hold
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Additional Work
• New approach to identifying tropical cyclones in model simulations; Done
• Application of the Emanuel Statistical Downscaling method to hurricanes; Done
Presentations by Asuka Suzuki on cyclone identification and Emanuel Model, and by Cindy Bruyere on statistical downscaling.
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Additional Work
• Development and application of the Willis Hurricane Index; Done
• Application of Extreme Value Theory to assessing intense hurricane changes based on model output. Done
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Willis Hurricane Index
Average WHI vs Losses
R2 =0.91
3 2( ) 5( ) 5( )65 50 1525 65,
7, 7,
m h t
t m
t t
v R vWHI
For v and v
If v v
Presentation on Importance to Offshore Energy Industry by James Done
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Application of EVT to NRCM Predictions
PE69=Cat5PE58-Cat4,5PE48=Major HurricanesPE32=Hurricanes
Presentation on extreme value theory by Greg Holland
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Additional Work
• Paper to the Offshore Technology Conference 2010 (May):– Holland, G.J., J. Done, C. Bruyere, C. Cooper and A.
Suzuki, 2010: Model Investigations of the Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Future Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclone Activity. OTC Metocean 2010
• Special Industry Session at the American Meteorological Society Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Conference (May)– Afternoon and evening sessions, 10 presentations and a
panel discussion.17Holland RPSEA Overview 0310
Overall Results
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Impact on Gulf
Caveat on small size of area, which amplifies uncertainty.
Damage expected to stay reasonably stable, due to reduction in size countering increased intensity
Genesis Locations
25%
Summary• The required task list is largely
completed except for completion and analysis of the 12/4 km simulations, which are well on the way:• Task 1: Model Setup and Initial Testing is
completed• Task 2: Intermediate Testing is completed• Task 3: 50-y Forecasts: 36 km completed, 12
and 4 km under way, 25 km global on hold, all statistical downscaling completed.
• Additional work: Emanual downscaling, Willis Hurricane Index, Extreme value theory application, conference papers and sessions.
• New completion date of December 2010 will enable considerable further work and analysis to be provided
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