The Future of Travel and TourismITB Convention – Berlin - March 11th 2009
Rohit Talwar - CEO - Fast Future
[email protected] Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 Mob +44 (0)7973 405145
Image source: Hydropolis, Dubai
For details on Fast Future’s
seminar on Winning in a Downturn
April 30th 2009 - 6pm
QE II Centre London
please email
What do they Have in Common?
They all started in an economic downturn
How will the Downturn Develop?
http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg
Love is in the Air
Road to Nowhere
Suspicious Minds
Dancing in the Dark
GDP Growth India and China
8-10%
6-7%
1-2%
Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%
GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
Prepare for Alternative Scenarios
Airlines in Crisis
Sources: www.flysilverjet.com / www.maxjet.com / http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg
Demographic Destinies 3 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
1998
445 665
769
5266
4034
731
965
339
572
Source : United Nations2008 2050 Source: UN
Economic Power Shifts
The Top 20 in 2025?
Source: www.gs.com
US$ 3.76 Trillion investment by 2020
170 million Tourists by 2020
Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012
Over 900 new hotels offering 750,000+ rooms by 2020
900+ new aircraft by 2027
Middle East Travel and Tourism
2009
2010
2015
28%
19%
56%
16%
38%
43%
79%
12%
9%
Revenue Impact Against 2008Growth
Flat
Decline
203 RespondentsSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Profit Impact Against 2008
2009
2010
2015
25%
25%
55%
20%
37%
38%
73%
18%
9%
Growth
Flat
Decline
204 RespondentsSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Cost Cutting -Emphasis on Innovation -
Increasing Use of Partnerships -
More New Product Development -
Headcount Reduction -
Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers -Changing Organisational Structure -
Price Increases -
Focus on Premium Products -
Reduction of Product Range -
Changing our Basic Strategy -
Changing Business Model -
Staff Motivation Activities -Looking for Acquisitions -
Increased Marketing -
Other -No Change -
Selling Parts of the Business -
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Customer Relationships -
Cost Control -
Innovation -
Supplier Relationships -
Clear Internal Communications -
Marketing and Brand Promotion -
Other -
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Vacations 2015
http://www.maskworld.com/pix/costumes/large/91099-urlauber-fat-suit-tourist-fat-suit.jpg
47% - More47% - More
48% - Shorter48% - Shorter
70% - More Low Cost70% - More Low Cost
20% - More Luxury20% - More Luxury
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
81%81% 76%76%
62%62% 80%80%http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/usa/images/vacation-travel.jpg http://stephen.banksie.co.uk/research/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/louvre33.jpg
Http://www.umanitoba.ca/campus/physical_plant/media/sustainability.jpg http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/1848797.html
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Leveraging the Networks 74% - Will use Networks to Research and Find Deals
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
64%
31%
3%3% 2%2%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Travel Expectations in 2015
• No. of domestic nights 31% 27%
• No. of international nights 42% 23%
• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%
Up Down
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpg
Air Travel 2015
Air Travel in 2015
• 65% expect costs to rise on domestic and international flights
• Personal domestic flights 29% 28%
• Personal international flights 39% 24%
• Travel Budgets 44% 32%
Up Down
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/
New Business Models
85% - In-Flight / In-Room 85% - In-Flight / In-Room
66% - Experience Lounges66% - Experience Lounges
53% - Testing Vacations53% - Testing Vacations
67% - Monetize Clients67% - Monetize Clients
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Under 100 US Airports by 2015?
http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpg
38%38%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Airports only in Major Euro Cities
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/aircraft-pictures/T5large.jpg
40%40%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Low Cost Carriers
http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermanwingsA319.png
62% - Half will Collapse62% - Half will Collapse
49% - Massive Growth49% - Massive GrowthData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
New Business Models / New Airlines
62%62%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Lufthansa-1.jpg
Preference for Rail over Air
66% - Europe66% - Europe
18% - USA18% - USAData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpg
http://www.jumbohostel.com/DynPage.aspx?id=64673&mn1=5293&mn2=5302
Innovations will Continue to Emerge – e.g. Jumbo Hostel, Sweden
Mobile Hotels - Movil
http://www.ohgizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/hotel_movil.jpg
http://www.gizmag.com/from-oilrig-to-luxury-eco-resort-11156/11156/picture/70690/
Rig Hotels
www.mondolithic.com
Hello Hypersonic?Hello Hypersonic?
48%48%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
$20,000 Commercial Spaceflight?$20,000 Commercial Spaceflight?
29%29%Image source: Virgin GalacticData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Space Hotels?
18%18%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
http://www.bornrich.org/images/space-hotel_18.jpg
Airship Hotels
30%30%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Source: Aeroscraft
http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpg
Augmented Reality
69%69%
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
www.mondolithic.com
23%23%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
Environment
Don’t Make What you Don’t Need
From requirement analysis through contract negotiation to implementation and demobilization in months Source: Siemens Industrial Solutions & Services - Airport Logistics
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Environmental Control• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero environmental
footprint (waste, energy use, emissions) will be out of business
• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all airlines
• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that dramatically restrict the number of flights they can take
• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly, proving the business benefit outweighs environmental impact
23%
77%
25%
18%
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
What does the timeline of developments look like for your
key markets?
Travel 2015 - Conclusions
• Demand will hold up
• Airline profitability is critical
• New business models will evolve
• Sustainability still on the agenda
http://dubaiworld.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/dubailand-wheel.jpg
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