The World in 2029
World Tourism Forum Lucerne
Rohit Talwar CEO
Fast Future April 23rd 2009
Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766
Mob +44 (0)7973 405145
What do they Have in Common?
They all started in an economic downturn
81%81% 76%76%
62%62% 80%80%
Demographic Destinies Over 2 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
1998
445 665
769
5266
4034
731
965
339
572
Source : United Nations2008 2050 Source: UN
Changing European Ethnicity
Life Redefined – Lifespans are Increasing
Food – Up or Salty?
Politics gets Complex
Economic Power Shifts
The Top 20 in 2025?
Source: www.gs.com
How will the Downturn Develop?
US Bank Exposure to Default RiskDerivates as % of Risk Capital Q408
Love is in the Air
Road to Nowhere
Suspicious Minds
Dancing in the Dark
GDP Growth India and China
8-10%
6-7%
1-2%
Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%
GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
Prepare for Alternative Scenarios
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
Sustainability – Hope Fulfilled?
Don’t Break What you Can’t Fix“For too long, environmentally-friendly technology and issues about the environment have been seen as a corporate social responsibility issue and not an opportunity to create new wealth in the future. Governments alone cannot solve the problems we face unless the capitalist world invests in a sustainable future.”
Sir Richard Branson.
Virgin Atlantic
http://www.easier.com/view/News/Motoring/Saab/article-110953.htmlhttp://www.bizbuzzmedia.com/Admin/ImageGallery/BizBuzzMedia/Rob%20Coppinger/Virgin-low-res.jpg
http://www.bizbuzzmedia.com/Admin/ImageGallery/BizBuzzMedia/jackiet/Silverjet%20plane%20taking%20off.jpg
Don’t Make What you Don’t Need
From requirement analysis through contract negotiation to implementation and demobilization in months Source: Siemens Industrial Solutions & Services - Airport Logistics
Masdar – Tomorrow’s Energy Blueprint?
Image sources: http://www.outnext.com/on/2007/05/masdar_city_gre.html
Masdar in Abu Dhabi completes in 2015 as one of the first planned eco-cities – the solutions developed could be rolled out globally. Could you be part of that?
Opening Up Education
Transforming Healthcare
Rethinking Infrastructure
Telephony• Voice• Messaging• SIM card• Phonebook• Ring Tones• Security
Connectivity• Cellular• Up to 14 bands• WLAN/BT• GPS• NFC• FM
Data/Enterprise• 100Mbps• Email• IMS• Browsing• VPN• PIM• Ecommerce• Payments
Software• Protocols• Middleware• Applications• User Interface• Minimize fragmentation
Multimedia• Camera 8-16M• Camcorder• 24M Color Display • Memory (160GB)• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out• Games
(50-100M Tps)• DRM
Technology – The World in your Hand?
The Only Way to Fly?The Only Way to Fly?
Society – me, we or all of us?
http://bloginitiative.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/crowd.jpg
The Middle East – Against the Wind?
US$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025
170 million Tourists by 2020
Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012
Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by 2025
1130 new aircraft by 2030
Airlines in Crisis
http://www.papermag.com/blogs/air-india-new-livery4.jpg
Airports - Endangered Species?
http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpg
Promise Fulfilled?
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpg
What does the timeline of developments look like for your
key markets?
Conclusions - Designing the Future
• Restricting entry will become the issue
• Eco-political risks rising
• Technology will transform experiences
• New business models must evolve
• Sustainability in question