Background of Zamboanga Siege
COG (MNLF Perspective)
Strategic
Operational
Justifications
Conclusion
Chronology of Events:
29 Jun 13 Nur Misuari conducted MNLF leadership assembly; Declared that he is against the Bangsamoro framework initiated by MILF
o Present in the assembly were Ustadz Jain Jali and an alleged UN rep who declared that:
He can call up thousands of UN Forces to be led by USA if MNLF conflict would erupt again He can facilitate the direct line talk of MISUARI with the UN Secretary General if MNLF will declare
Independence during the conflict
08 Jul 13 MOL 500 MNLF members marched in Lamitan City as part of their peace consultation caravan exercise in Basilan.
25 Jul13 MOL 300 MNLF fighters consolidated at their base camps in Zambo Sibugay for the declaration of Bangsamoro Independence and raising MNLF flag
MNLF is a rebel group founded by Nur Misuari in 1969
MNLF-GPH Peace Process 1976 1996
Tripoli Agreement in 1977
Final Peace Agreement in 1996
26 Jul13 MNLF general assembly conducted at Alicia, ZSP attended by MOL 200 MNLF members
29 Jul13 Misuaris supposed declaration of BangsamoroIndependence in Talipao, Sulu did not materialize
12 Aug 13 Misuari declared Bangsamoro Independence to almost 700 MNLF members/supporters in Talipao, Sulu and stated: Im declaring this day, August 12, 2013 as Bangsamoro Republic
Independence Day.
13 Aug 13 Nur Misuari declared independence again in Indanan, Sulu (the pronouncement of independence in 12 Aug has not
created so much impact)
21Aug 13 MNLF Senior Leaders Forum was held in Zambo City attended by prominent MNLF personalities, ARMM Governor and
Dir Yosup Paradji of OPAPP with the purpose of sustaining the
peace accord between the govt and MNLF
31Aug - 01Sep13 A convergence forum for development in MNLF communities was held in Zambo City
presided by USEC Lorena of OPAPP and attended by ARMM
officials and 100 top ranking MNLF leaders
5-8 Sep 13 MNLF Force Build-up Misuaris armed loyalists started massing up and moving out
of Sulu
Fighters from Jolo and Basilan arrived in Zambo City 7 pump boats with HPFAs arrived in Zambo City.
9 Sep 13 Armed MNLF were seen moving on foot from Brgy Santa Barbara heading towards Brgy Santa Catalina,
Zambo City. Initial fighting started on this day until 27 Sep
28 Sep 23 Oct 13 Post conflict activities 23 Oct 13 Military intervention was finally concluded
through a Turn-over Ceremony between JTF ZAMPELAN and
Zamboanga City Govt
6MILITARY MNLF CIV
KILLED/KIA 26 206 12
WOUNDED/WIA/ 194 70
CAPTURED/APPREHENDED 270
SURRENDERED 24
RESCUED HOSTAGES 195
LOSSES/RECOVERED 262 HPFAs AND 20 LPFAs
IDP 125,000
HOMES BURNED 10,000 approx
GOVT COST
80-100
BILLION PHP
Center of Gravity (COG) Critical Capabilities (CC)
Critical Requirements (CR)Critical Vulnerabilities (CV)
Means that are considered crucial enablers for
the adversarys COG to function and essential to the accomplishment of the adversarys assumed objective(s) (VERB)
Those essential conditions, resources, and
means for a critical capability to be fully
operational (NOUN)
Aspects or components of the adversarys critical requirements which are deficient or vulnerable
to direct or indirect attack that will create
decisive or significant effects disproportionate to
the military resources applied (NOUN)
Source of power that provides freedom of
action, physical and moral strength, and will
to act (NOUN)
Critical Factor Analysis Model
End State/ Objectives: Assess Friendly and Enemy
CC
CRCV
1. Field Forces
(WMC/PNP)
2. Leadership
3. Support System
4. Infrasturcture
5. Population
Operational Environment: ZAMBASULTA End State: Take-over and control of Zamboanga City
1 32 4 5
o Control of Airport/Seaport
o Employ Mil/PNP Forces
o Use of Communication facilities
o Control of Commerce/Economic activities
o Control of the Seat of Government
o Support of Local & International Media
o Control of Health Facilities
o Support of the populace
o Manpower/Workforce (S)
o People of Zamboanga (P)
o Banks, Utilities services, communications, (S)
o Critical Infrastructure / Airport/Seaport/Power
Grids/Water Plants/ Road network (S)
o Military/police/other law enforcement agencies (F)
o Seat of Govt/Military Leadership (L) Mayor Salazar COMWESMINCOM
o Command and Control systems and facilities (L)
o Peace and Order (L/F)
o Leadership
o Population
o Infrastructure
o Support System
Commo Logistics Finance Work Force
o Field Forces
OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT (ZAMBASULTA)
ZAMBASULTA is the home to several Muslims Tribes in the region. It is where most of the MNLF
members and fighters loyal to Nur Misuari resides. MNLF are very familiar with the terrain.
OPERATIONAL CENTER OF GRAVITY:
The Western Mindanao Command (WESMINCOM),
based in Zamboanga City, is the primary instrument of the
national government to protect and defend the western
Mindanao from major threats, both external and internal.
Thus, it is the Operational COG. In the conduct of internal
security operations, it supports the PNP and other law
enforcement agencies. The fall of WESMINCOM will mean
the fall of ZAMBASULTA.
CC
CRCV
1 32 4 5
1. Leadership
2. Population
3. Infrastructure
4. Support System
5. Field Forces
End State: Establish Mindanao as a new nation that is composed of a federation of four sub-states, namely: (1) Substate of
Mindanao, (2) Substate of Sulu, (3) Substate of Bangsamoro, and (4) Substate of Compostela. Mindanao will be an egalitarian
State. Sulu and Bangsamoro will be Islamic States. Compostela will be a Socialist State.
o Control of the Regional Centers
o Control of Economic Centers
o Control of Technology Hub
o Employ Military and police forces
o Support of the populace
o Control of rich biodiversity and natural resources
o Geographic Location Zamboanga City serves as converging point
o Functioning local government
o Public utilities
o Critical Infrastructure power plants/grid, air&sea ports, roads, bridges, telecom facilities
o Command and Control systems & facilities
o Logistics
o Manpower/workforce
o Military, police & other law enforcement agencies
o Global and regional alliances
o Population/Consituents
o Media
o Leadership/Governance
o Population
o Infrastructure
o Support System
o Field Forces
Strategic Environment: Bangsamoro Land
STRATEGIC CENTER OF GRAVITY:
Leadership and Control of Zamboanga City as the MNLF sees
the city as the symbolic center of power of the national
government in western Mindanao. It is also the most
accessible among the possible targeted highly-urbanized
cities in which to conduct their offensive activities. Seizing it
and declaring the Bangsamoro Independence (and raising
their flag) in this city would attract national and international
attention, thus advancing their objective of secession from
the RP.
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT (BANGSAMORO LAND SULU, MINDANAO, PALAWAN, SABAH)
- are home to a sizeable Muslim population- is considered the agricultural basin of the Philippines
- sacred home of Raja Bantogen the Meranaw largest non-Muslim and Subanon Tribe;
No determined casualty criteria before disengaging
Blend-in with the civilians
Take civilians as hostage and use as shield
-The MNLF will pursue the attainment of its end state whatever it cost
- No determined casualty criteria before disengaging
- There were left with no options when they were isolated/surrounded by the government forces in
land and at sea but to burn houses/buildings, take civilians as hostages and use as shield, blend with
them to escape from the area.
MNLF Government
Operational End
State
Take-over and control of Zamboanga City Destroy the MNLF forces at
Zamboanga City and prevent
the escalation of hostilities to
other parts of Mindanao with
minimal collateral damage
Strategic End State Establish Mindanao as a new nation that is
composed of a federation of four sub-states,
namely: (1) Substate of Mindanao, (2)
Substate of Sulu, (3) Substate of
Bangsamoro, and (4) Substate of
Compostela. Mindanao will be an egalitarian
State. Sulu and Bangsamoro will be Islamic
States. Compostela will be a Socialist State
Prevent the MNLF from getting
outside support and in gaining
media mileage
End States compared:
The MNLF failed to achieve their operational and strategic end state while the government
achieved its end state. However, the collateral damage of the siege exceeded the expectations.
History is written by the victors as such,
rebellion can only be justified if it wins...
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