ISAP2013@Pacifico YokohamaSession: Adapting to Climate Change: Experience and Challenges for Asia
Projected Climate Change Impactsin Asia and Japanin Asia and Japan
Kiyoshi TakahashiCenter for Social and Environmental Systems Research
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Research gaps and hot topics of impact research
• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy
P j ti f i t id i f t• Projections of impacts considering future socio‐economic developmentp
• Evaluation of adaptation options
• Projections of impacts of extreme events
C i ti f t i ti i i t• Communication of uncertainties in impact projections
• Economics of adaptation
• Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation or related matters in Japan
• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”– Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change
p p
impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government
• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”– Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to
increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process– →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk
management strategies; FY2012‐2016)
• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs,
downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation
• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries
– Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs
• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program)
– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projectssome other projects
– →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)
Research gaps and hot topics of impact research
• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy
P j ti f i t id i f t• Projections of impacts considering future socio‐economic developmentp
• Evaluation of adaptation options
• Projections of impacts of extreme events
C i ti f t i ti i i t• Communication of uncertainties in impact projections
• Economics of adaptation
• Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation or related matters in Japan
• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”– Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change
p p
impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government
• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”– Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to
increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process– →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk
management strategies; FY2012‐2016)
• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs,
downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation
• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries
– Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs
• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program)
– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projectssome other projects
– →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)
Risk MapAd t ti
S-4: Comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on sensitive sectors in Japan(FY2005-2009; A predecessor of “S-8” project)
p
Without adaptation measures
Water Human
Improvement of ImpactProjection
Adaptationmeasures
With adaptation measures
resources health
Agriculture CoastsForestsg
Comprehensive
Climate scenario
Population
scenario
Common scenarioDevelopment of Impact
FunctionsEconomic assessment
Proposal of economic assessment method
Comprehensiveprojections
assessment methodDevelopment of monetary
assessment basic unitIntegrated
assessment tool
10
15
20GHG emissions
700
900
1100GHG concentrations
3.0
4.0
5.0Temperature changes
-15
-10
-5
0Impacts
assessment tool
0
5
10
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00 300
500
700
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
21
10
21
20
21
30
21
40
21
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
21
10
21
20
21
30
21
40
21
50
-30
-25
-20
15
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
http://www.nies.go.jp/s4_impact/seika.html
Sectoral risk maps reported in S-4 projectg j
7 1年に熱ストレスで死亡する確率(人口1000万人あたりの死亡数で示したもの)
0 1 10 100 5000 1 10 100 500
S-4 project: Impacts on Forest:Distribution of suitable habitats for beech (Fagus crenata) forests
Beech forests
( g )
Beech forests Nationwide decrease
of suitable habitats
• 2031‐2050: 35‐56%
• 2081‐2100: 69‐93%
Vulnerable area: western Japan, the Pacific side of Honshu
8
S-4 project: Synthesis of sector analyses of climate change impacts (Radar charts)
1.0Flood Area
Sl C llAffected Area due to Storm-S Fl di ( J '
1.0Flood Area
Sl C llAffected Area due to Storm-S Fl di ( J '
change impacts (Radar charts)
0.5
Slope Collapse
Sandy Beach LossAffected Area due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Western
Japan)
Surge Flooding ( Japan'sthree major bays)
0.5
Slope Collapse
Sandy Beach LossAffected Area due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Western
Japan)
Surge Flooding ( Japan'sthree major bays)
0.0Heat Stress Mortality Risk
Rice YieldAffected Population due toStorm-Surge Flooding
Affected Population due toStorm-Surge Flooding (Japan's three major bays)
0.0Heat Stress Mortality Risk
Rice YieldAffected Population due toStorm-Surge Flooding
Affected Population due toStorm-Surge Flooding (Japan's three major bays)
Rice Yield
Loss of Suitable Habitats forF. crenata Forests
Risk of Pine Wilt
Storm-Surge Flooding ( Western Japan)
Flood Area
Rice Yield
Loss of Suitable Habitats forF. crenata Forests
Risk of Pine Wilt
Storm Surge Flooding ( Western Japan)
450s BaU
0.5
1.0
Slope Collapse
Sandy Beach LossAffected Area due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Western
Japan)
Affected Area due to Storm-Surge Flooding ( Japan'sthree major bays)
0.0
0.5
1.0
洪水氾濫面積
土砂災害リスク
砂浜喪失面積熱ストレス
死亡リスクコメ収量
ブナ適域喪失マツ枯れ危険域
高潮浸水被害
人口(西日本)
高潮浸水被害
人口(三大湾)
高潮浸水面積
(西日本)
高潮浸水面積
(三大湾)
2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s
2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
0.0Heat Stress Mortality Risk
Affected Population due to
Affected Population due toStorm-Surge Flooding (Japan's three major bays)
apa )
9
Rice Yield
Loss of Suitable Habitats forF. crenata Forests
Risk of Pine Wilt
Affected Population due toStorm-Surge Flooding ( Western Japan)
550s
Framework of S-8 Project (FY2010-2014)Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation
Socio‐Economic Scenarios Climate Scenarios
strategy on whole Japan and local government
【Theme 1】Research on highly reliable quantitative assessment of climate change impacts throughout Japan
Simp
assemeth
HealthAgri DisasterBio.Water
Climate Scenario downscaler al
ment
d
Integrated assessment model
Economic assessment
plifie
d
ssment
hod
Feedback from local government
Feedback from developing country
Regiona
assessm
method
【Theme 2】Research on impact assessment and comprehensive d i li i
government country
【Theme 3】Research on indexes of
vulnerability and adaptationeffectsadaptation policies
at the local government level
adaptation effects in the Asia‐Pacific
Region
Local government consortium
Various impact and adaptation studies in th A i P ifi i
Transmission of research results to domestic and international policymaking
consortium the Asia‐Pacific region
Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation or related matters in Japan
• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”– Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change
p p
impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government
• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”– Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to
increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process– →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk
management strategies; FY2012‐2016)
• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs,
downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation
• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries
– Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs
• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program)
– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projectssome other projects
– →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)
• Develop advanced data downscaling method• Develop data assimilation technology• Develop simulation technology for climate change adaptation• http://www.mext‐isacc.jp/eng/
Development and Application of Comprehensive Downscaling
WaterCityAgriculture/Fishery
Methods for Hokkaido
An innovative method of forecasting ocean circulation and fishery-resource variabilities linked to climate change forvariabilities linked to climate change for operational use
Advanced downscaling of the local easterly cold wind "Yamase" and the winter monsoon in the Tohoku region
Advanced downscaling methods for adaptations to future snow cover change in the Sea of Japan side areas under the global warming
A Water Resources Management System Enhancing Adaptability to Climate
Development of decision support system for optimal agricultural producton under global environment changes
Development of Seamless Chemical AssimiLation System and its Application for Atmospheric Environmental Materials
Development of Decision Making System for Water Resource Policy under Climate Change in Shikoku Area
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in water hazard assessed using regional climate scenarios in the Tokyo region
Statistical downscaling of alternative climate change scenarios on the river and coastal basin managements for environmental policy-making of Kochi Prefecture
Green Innovation for Urban-Seaside Integrated Area
Development of a sophisticated downscaling model using feedback parameterizations and its applications for adaptations to urban heat islands, extremely hot days, and heavy rain falls.
(cited from the URL above and translated)
Research gaps and hot topics of impact research
• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy
P j ti f i t id i f t• Projections of impacts considering future socio‐economic developmentp
• Evaluation of adaptation options
• Projections of impacts of extreme events
C i ti f t i ti i i t• Communication of uncertainties in impact projections
• Economics of adaptation
• Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation or related matters in Japan
• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”– Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change
p p
impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government
• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”– Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to
increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process– →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk
management strategies; FY2012‐2016)
• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs,
downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation
• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries
– Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs
• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program)
– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projectssome other projects
– →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)
Integrated research on climate change scenarios to increase
Scheme of the S-5 project (2007-2011)g g
public awareness and contribute to the policy process (S-5 project)
Projection of climate changewith GCM
tain
tyys
is ReliabilityDevelopment of
with GCMRCM
Downscaling
Un
cert
anal
ys
Reliability assessment of GCM
pprobabilistic
climate scenario
Probabilistic climate change scenario
mp
act
essm
ent
Water resource
OceanFishery
CryosphereSLR
CropFood
Indexes of extreme event
Probabilistic climate change scenario
on on
Imas
se
「Vision of future climate」Needs on
scientific knowledge
esea
rch
on
mu
nic
atio
Communication(How to deliver scientific
knowledge to citizens)
Needs of companyNeeds of citizen
Res
com
m
Policymakers・Citizens・Companies
U t i t i GHG / i i i
[S-5] Various uncertainties in impact projection
Uncertainty in GHG / socio-economic scenario
Climate projection
NaturalClimatemodel
GHGemission
p j
variabilitymodel
uncertaintyemission
uncertainty
Impactj ti
Uncertainty in methods for developingprojection for developing
climate scenarios
I tImpactmodel
uncertainty
Socio-economicscenario
Climatescenario
uncertainty
Impact projection
uncertaintyuncertainty
uncertainty
[S-5] Climate scenarios based on multi-GCMs
CMIP3 data
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php
In order to contribute to IPCC-AR4 many research teamsIn order to contribute to IPCC-AR4, many research teams in the world conducted climate projections based on common GHGs emission assumptions. The results of the psimulations were collected in PCMDI (US) and distributed publicly through the Internet.
Example of impact assessment considering uncertainty of climate projection Crop productivity assessments
using plural GCM projections
Impact on rice productivity
uncertainty of climate projection using plural GCM projections evaluated in IPCC-AR4
SRES-A2 SRES-A1B SRES-B1
Masutomi Y. et al. (2009) Agric.Ecosyst.Environ.,131,281-291
SRES A2 SRES A1B SRES B1
80-100
60-80
40-60
80-100
60-80
40-60
80-100
60-80
40-60
Probability of crop productivity decrease [%] (with CO2 fertilization;2080s-1990s)
20-40
1-20
0-1
20-40
1-20
0-1
20-40
1-20
0-1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.5
0
0.1
0.2
~-20
~-15
~-10
0~-5
-5~0
0~5
5~10
0~15
5~20
0~25
0
0.1
0.2
~-20
~-15
~-10
0~-5
-5~0
0~5
5~10
0~15
5~20
0~25
0
0.1
0.2
~-20
~-15
~-10
~-5
5~0
0~5
~10
~15
~20
~25
PDFs of estimated productivity change (Asia;with CO2 fertilization; 2080s-1990s)
-25~
-20~
-15~
-10 - 5
10
15
20
生産量変化率[%]
-25~
-20~
-15~
-10 - 5
10
15
20
生産量変化率[%]
-25~
-20~
-15~
-10 - 5
10
15
20
生産量変化率[%]
Research gaps and hot topics of impact research
• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy
P j ti f i t id i f t• Projections of impacts considering future socio‐economic developmentp
• Evaluation of adaptation options
• Projections of impacts of extreme events
C i ti f t i ti i i t• Communication of uncertainties in impact projections
• Economics of adaptation
• Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Large-scale (>$3mil./year) research projects on adaptation or related matters in Japan
• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐8”– Ministry of Environment, FY2010‐14, 12 sub‐teams, Assessment of climate change
p p
impacts and adaptation strategy on whole Japan and local government
• Environment Research & Technology Development Fund “S‐5”– Ministry of Environment, FY2007‐11,, Integrated research on climate change scenarios to
increase public awareness and contribute to the policy process– →New project (S‐10: A comprehensive research on the development of global climate risk
management strategies; FY2012‐2016)
• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation• Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2010‐14, 12 programs,
downscaling, assimilation, simulation for CC adaptation
• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address• Development of mitigation and adaptation technologies to address global warming in the agriculture, forestry and Fisheries
– Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, FY2010‐14 , 7 programs
• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century• Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN‐Program)
– Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, FY2007‐11 , 3 teams with some other projectssome other projects
– →New program (Sousei‐program: FY2012‐2016)
http://www jamstec go jp/kakushin21/en
Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21st century http://www.jamstec.go.jp/kakushin21/enp j y
(cited from a brochure of the program)
Example of KAKUSHIN’s output on climate change impacts
Change ratio of extreme flood discharge (yearly maximum daily discharge, 50‐year return period).(y y y g , y p )
Th f i b i l t l th 3000000K 2The area of river basins are equal to or larger than 3000000Km2. Top: Ratio of near future simulations (2015-2039) to present-day simulations (1979-2004).Bottom: Ration of the end of 21st century simulations (2075-2099) to the present-day simulations (1979-2004).
(cited from a brochure of the program)
Collaborations between research projects
Climate projection (funded by MEXT)Climate projection (funded by MEXT)
(2002-2006)
・ 100km AO-GCM by CCSR/NIES/FRCGC (-2100)・ 20km time-slice experiments by MRI/JMAKyosei
・ [Long-term] 280km Earth System Model by FRCGC (-2300)[N t ] 50k AO GCM b CCSR/NIES/FRCGC ( 2030)
Kakushin
( )・ [Near-term] 50km AO-GCM by CCSR/NIES/FRCGC (-2030)・ [Extreme event] 20km time-slice experiments by MRI/JMA
Sousei・ Probabilistic climate scenarios・ Long-term scenarios
Task Group on Climate Scenario U ili i
・ Co-ordination of data exchange・ Share of know-how on climate
i tili ti
Impact assessment (funded by MOE)・ Spatial downscaling of climate scenarios (with RCM / SD) ・ Downscaling of socio economic scenarios (global)
Utilization scenario utilization
S-5
・ Downscaling of socio-economic scenarios (global)・ Sectoral impact assessment at global scale・ Risk communication with public citizen and business
S-10・ Risk management strategies
S-4・Analyses of sectoral impacts in Japan and Asia
S-8・Sectoral impacts and adaptation strategies in Japan・Adaptation policy of Local Governments
S-10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014AR5AR4
Research gaps and hot topics of impact research
• Costs of inaction / benefits of climate policy
P j ti f i t id i f t• Projections of impacts considering future socio‐economic developmentp
• Evaluation of adaptation options
• Projections of impacts of extreme events
C i ti f t i ti i i t• Communication of uncertainties in impact projections
• Economics of adaptation
• Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (WB, 2010)
East Asia and PacificE d C t l A iEurope and Central AsiaLatin America and CaribbeanMiddle East and North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Sahara Africa
Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (WB, 2010)
NCAR(降水が増える気候シナリオ)
CSIRO(降水が減る気候シナリオ)
UNFCCC(200単位:10億米ドル/年 UNFCCC(2007)の推計値
単位:10億米ドル/年
インフラ
沿岸域
水供給・洪水防護
農林水産
人間健康人間健康
極端現象
総計
Toward the improvement of impact analyses in Asia-Enhancement of collaboration -
• Data
Enhancement of collaboration
– Climate scenarios, especially downscaled ones
– Socio‐economic scenarios both top‐down (downscaled)Socio economic scenarios both top down (downscaled) scenarios and bottom‐up scenarios
– Public archive system for storing and sharing the data?– Public archive system for storing and sharing the data?
• Methods
– Collaborative researches for developing and sharing tools and methods for impact analyses
• Adaptation experiences
Menu of adaptation options including indigenous ones– Menu of adaptation options including indigenous ones
– Accumulation of cases (good and bad practices)