Presentation to the Annual Conferenceof theNational Housing Federation 23rd September 2009
Large-scale immigration is a new phenomenonNet migration into England 1964-2006 000sSource: ONS Parliamentary written answer WA91 -17.01.2005 and ONS International Migration Statistics November 2007
and is a matter of public concernSource: MORI Political Monitor: What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today (spontaneous)? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today (spontaneous)? Percentage saying Race relations/immigrants/immigration. (Figures mainly at April except for 74,77, 78 and 82 and Mar 05)
Population projections (millions) - UKSource: Natural Change, High migration and Principal Projection from GAD (2006-based). Balanced migration projection derived from GAD principal and low migration projections
Household Projections to 2031, England
The number of households in England is projected to grow to 27.8 million in 2031, an increase of 6.3 million (29 per cent) over the 2006 estimate, or 252,000 households per year.
Population growth is the main driver of household growth, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase in households between 2006 and 2031.
One person households are projected to increase by 163,000 per year, equating to two-thirds of the increase in households.
By 2031, 32 per cent of households will be headed by those aged 65 or over, up from 26 per cent in 2006.
By 2031, 18 per cent of the total population of England is projected to live alone, compared with 13 per cent in 2006.
The South East region has the largest absolute increase in households of 39,000 per year from 2006 to 2031, a 28 per cent rise from the 2006 level.
The North East region shows the smallest growth in households, at 8,300 per year from 2006 to 2031, or a 19 per cent rise from the 2006 level.
The 2006-based projections show a higher growth in households compared with the 2004-based (revised) projections, equating to an extra 35,000 households per year between 2006 and 2026 in England.
Contents
1. Household projections in England ....2
2. Household projections by region..............................4
3. Drivers of household growth....6
4. Variant projections... .. 6
5. Comparison with previous projections ..... 9
6. Methodology ..... 11
7. Data quality.12
8. Uses of the data 12
9. Accompanying tables ......13
10. Background notes ......14
11. Enquiries...16
HousingStatistical Release
11 March 2009
usingResearchSummary
Number 239, 2007
Household formation reasons38%19%17%25%Net migration is the single largest reason for additional household formation.Source : Estimated from GAD 2006-based population projections and DCLG New Projections of households for England and the Regions to 2026.
COMPLETION OF SOCIAL HOUSING: ENGLAND
Number of Dwellings
Source: DEHG House Building Starts and Completions : England, Table 1a
_1314517639.xls
DWELLING STOCK BY TENURE: ENGLAND (historical series)
Rented from Registered Social Landlords and Local Authorities
Source: DCHG Housing Statistics, Table 104
_1314518454.xls
Source: www.communities.gov.uk/documents/housing/xls/table600
WAITING LIST FOR SOCIAL HOUSING : ENGLAND
_1314514592.xls
ANNUAL INCREASE IN HOUSEHOLDS ON WAITING LIST
FOR SOCIAL HOUSING: ENGLAND
_1314521655.xls
Source: ONS TIM Series
NET NON BRITISH IMMIGRATION
Thousands
_1314515384.xls
DCLG Guidance July 2009
In some areas this guidance will mean giving more priority to people who have been on the waiting list for a long time or more priority for people with strong local connections.
Chart2
0.0224083043-65.1
0.0202423091-40.4
0.0356647223-11.4
0.0712789059-50.1
-0.0135997925-85.3
-0.0062664845-41.2
0.0264412852-19.1
0.0239442077-46.1
0.0324129217-5.5
0.0268777116.2
-0.0208717081-55.4
-0.0145539437-79.4
0.0191096529-47.3
0.035219091634
0.025622771562.9
0.035367805979.6
0.039738322338
0.04582451430.2
0.049989966417.8
0.021888127690.9
0.007729551888.3
-0.013666549944
0.0021366305-13.4
0.0226622526-1.2
0.043166571276.8
0.029431823876
0.027849109355
0.031028671548
0.033533796140
0.0304206016161.6
0.0380188764158
0.0237154074173
0.0205314678154
0.0276966992147
0.0325867766244
0.0183868328204
0.029229979191
0.030568757207
GDP growth
Net migration
Chart1
807814
809540
827886
863623
889041
913800
942154
973748
1003370
1041517
1066217
1088108
1118245
1154685
1175916
Sheet1
Sheet1
0.0224083043-65.1
0.0202423091-40.4
0.0356647223-11.4
0.0712789059-50.1
-0.0135997925-85.3
-0.0062664845-41.2
0.0264412852-19.1
0.0239442077-46.1
0.0324129217-5.5
0.0268777116.2
-0.0208717081-55.4
-0.0145539437-79.4
0.0191096529-47.3
0.035219091634
0.025622771562.9
0.035367805979.6
0.039738322338
0.04582451430.2
0.049989966417.8
0.021888127690.9
0.007729551888.3
-0.013666549944
0.0021366305-13.4
0.0226622526-1.2
0.043166571276.8
0.029431823876
0.027849109355
0.031028671548
0.033533796140
0.0304206016161.6
0.0380188764158
0.0237154074173
0.0205314678154
0.0276966992147
0.0325867766244
0.0183868328204
0.029229979191
0.030568757207
&A
Page &P
GDP growth
Net migration
TSDdownload2
EmploymentReal GDPMigration
DYDCABMIGDP growthNetGross
1948284961
19492944073.3%
19503037733.2%
19513120602.7%
19523122230.1%
19533242013.8%
19543375314.1%
19553492403.5%
19563524830.9%
19573583301.7%
19583594730.3%
19592543619593748324.3%
19602589419603947985.3%
19612618919614039242.3%
19622638219624081411.0%
19632641719634256224.3%
19642673519644489345.5%
19652701819654589572.2%
19662719519664678071.9%
19672683219674793512.5%
19682668219684994284.2%
19692671719695098112.1%ILO unemployment
197026622705212352.2%-65.1%
197126285715317862.0%-40.43.4
197226273725507523.6%-11.44.1
197326897735900097.1%-50.13.1
19742698674581985-1.4%-85.32.9
19752689675578338-0.6%-41.23.7
197626659765936302.6%-19.15.1
197726697776078442.4%-46.15.1
197826861786275463.2%-5.55.1
197927283796444132.7%6.24.7
19802723980630963-2.1%-55.45.7
19812622381621780-1.5%-79.49.9
198225775826336621.9%-47.311.3
198325470836559793.5%3412.2
198426173846727872.6%62.912
198526479856965823.5%79.611.7
198626522867242634.0%3811.7
198727052877574524.6%30.211.3
198828022887953175.0%17.89.1
198928912898127252.2%90.97.4
199029225908190070.8%88.37.1
19912830191807814-1.4%449.3
199227828928095400.2%-13.411.8
199327378938278862.3%-1.212.3
199427525948636234.3%76.811.1
199527887958890412.9%7610
199628231969138002.8%559.5
199728705979421543.1%487.8
199828835989737483.4%1406.9
1999291659910033703.0%161.66.6
2000296040010415173.8%1585.9
2001299230110662172.4%1735.6
2002300780210881082.1%1545.7
2003303750311182452.8%1475.6
2004306830411546853.3%2445.1
2005310400511759161.8%2045.3
2006312940612102882.9%1915.8
2007315360712472853.1%5.6
200831678
1955 Q186530
1955 Q286611
1955 Q388327
1955 Q487772
1956 Q188310
1956 Q288062
1956 Q387862
1956 Q488249
1957 Q189930
1957 Q289886
1957 Q389248
1957 Q489266
1958 Q190692
1958 Q288346
1958 Q390189
1958 Q490246
1959 Q191122
1959 Q2254361959 Q292606
1959 Q3..1959 Q394455
1959 Q4..1959 Q496649
1960 Q1..1960 Q198726
1960 Q2258941960 Q297636
1960 Q3..1960 Q398979
1960 Q4..1960 Q499457
1961 Q1..1961 Q1101037
1961 Q2261891961 Q2101415
1961 Q3..1961 Q3100856
1961 Q4..1961 Q4100616
1962 Q1..1962 Q1101123
1962 Q2263821962 Q2102101
1962 Q3..1962 Q3102688
1962 Q4..1962 Q4102229
1963 Q1..1963 Q1102356
1963 Q2264171963 Q2106635
1963 Q3..1963 Q3107095
1963 Q4..1963 Q4109536
1964 Q1..1964 Q1110294
1964 Q2267351964 Q2112079
1964 Q3..1964 Q3112412
1964 Q4..1964 Q4114149
1965 Q1..1965 Q1113785
1965 Q2270181965 Q2114047
1965 Q3..1965 Q3115147
1965 Q4..1965 Q4115978
1966 Q1..1966 Q1116277
1966 Q2271951966 Q2117016
1966 Q3..1966 Q3117494
1966 Q4..1966 Q4117020
1967 Q1..1967 Q1118595
1967 Q2268321967 Q2120042
1967 Q3..1967 Q3120258
1967 Q4..1967 Q4120456
1968 Q1..1968 Q1124277
1968 Q2266821968 Q2123362
1968 Q3..1968 Q3125673
1968 Q4..1968 Q4126116
1969 Q1..1969 Q1126179
1969 Q2267171969 Q2127176
1969 Q3..1969 Q3127914
1969 Q4..1969 Q4128542
1970 Q1..1970 Q1127431
1970 Q2266221970 Q2130287
1970 Q3..1970 Q3131353
1970 Q4..1970 Q4132164
1971 Q1..1971 Q1130624
1971 Q2262851971 Q2132359
1971 Q3..1971 Q3134356
1971 Q4..1971 Q4134447
1972 Q1..1972 Q1134412
1972 Q2262731972 Q2137781
1972 Q3..1972 Q3138095
1972 Q4..1972 Q4140464
1973 Q1..1973 Q1147750
1973 Q2268971973 Q2148316
1973 Q3..1973 Q3147113
1973 Q4..1973 Q4146830
1974 Q1..1974 Q1143181
1974 Q2269861974 Q2145888
1974 Q3..1974 Q3147360
1974 Q4..1974 Q4145556
1975 Q1..1975 Q1145947
1975 Q2268961975 Q2143596
1975 Q3..1975 Q3143379
1975 Q4..1975 Q4145416
1976 Q1..1976 Q1147793
1976 Q2266591976 Q2146632
1976 Q3..1976 Q3148050
1976 Q4..1976 Q4151155
1977 Q1..1977 Q1151387
1977 Q2266971977 Q2150671
1977 Q3..1977 Q3151838
1977 Q4..1977 Q4153948
1978 Q1..1978 Q1154680
1978 Q2268611978 Q2156130
1978 Q3269641978 Q3157792
1978 Q4271461978 Q4158944
1979 Q1271741979 Q1157581
1979 Q2272831979 Q2164317
1979 Q3273621979 Q3160431
1979 Q4274111979 Q4162084
1980 Q1273341980 Q1160517
1980 Q2272391980 Q2157625
1980 Q3269781980 Q3157306
1980 Q4266861980 Q4155515
1981 Q1264251981 Q1154337
1981 Q2262231981 Q2154532
1981 Q3260931981 Q3156511
1981 Q4259291981 Q4156400
1982 Q1258761982 Q1156855
1982 Q2257751982 Q2158761
1982 Q3256361982 Q3158662
1982 Q4254681982 Q4159384
1983 Q1254101983 Q1161703
1983 Q2254701983 Q2162878
1983 Q3257281983 Q3164749
1983 Q4259171983 Q4166649
1984 Q1260541984 Q1168161
1984 Q2261731984 Q2166946
1984 Q3262621984 Q3167668
1984 Q4263731984 Q4170012
1985 Q1264381985 Q1171785
1985 Q2264791985 Q2174507
1985 Q3265211985 Q3174543
1985 Q4265191985 Q4175747
1986 Q1264961986 Q1178295
1986 Q2265221986 Q2180320
1986 Q3266051986 Q3181303
1986 Q4266841986 Q4184345
1987 Q1267621987 Q1185392
1987 Q2270521987 Q2187336
1987 Q3273141987 Q3191464
1987 Q4275991987 Q4193260
1988 Q1278231988 Q1196410
1988 Q2280221988 Q2197335
1988 Q3282731988 Q3200074
1988 Q4285091988 Q4201498
1989 Q1288121989 Q1202066
1989 Q2289121989 Q2203345
1989 Q3290111989 Q3203548
1989 Q4291241989 Q4203766
1990 Q1291351990 Q1205461
1990 Q2292251990 Q2206551
1990 Q3291191990 Q3204086
1990 Q4289021990 Q4202909
1991 Q1285911991 Q1202798
1991 Q2283011991 Q2202118
1991 Q3281411991 Q3201342
1991 Q4279881991 Q4201556
1992 Q1279771992 Q1201975
1992 Q2278281992 Q2201483
1992 Q3274211992 Q3202482
1992 Q4272701992 Q4203600
1993 Q1273951993 Q1204937
1993 Q2273781993 Q2205868
1993 Q3274371993 Q3207644
1993 Q4275021993 Q4209437
1994 Q1275011994 Q1211750
1994 Q2275251994 Q2214767
1994 Q3277111994 Q3217759
1994 Q4277941994 Q4219347
1995 Q1278081995 Q1220009
1995 Q2278871995 Q2221416
1995 Q3278811995 Q3223366
1995 Q4280211995 Q4224250
1996 Q1280191996 Q1226292
1996 Q2282311996 Q2227368
1996 Q3281291996 Q3229145
1996 Q4282271996 Q4230995
1997 Q1284041997 Q1232700
1997 Q2287051997 Q2234521
1997 Q3286681997 Q3236409
1997 Q4287801997 Q4238524
1998 Q1289531998 Q1240721
1998 Q2288351998 Q2242051
1998 Q3288201998 Q3244595
1998 Q4290111998 Q4246381
1999 Q1290711999 Q1247270
1999 Q2291651999 Q2248905
1999 Q3292921999 Q3252204
1999 Q4294611999 Q4254991
2000 Q1295222000 Q1257799
2000 Q2296042000 Q2259684
2000 Q3296852000 Q3261230
2000 Q4298042000 Q4262804
2001 Q1298662001 Q1265267
2001 Q2299232001 Q2265573
2001 Q3299382001 Q3267163
2001 Q4300432001 Q4268214
2002 Q1300522002 Q1269595
2002 Q2300782002 Q2271044
2002 Q3301282002 Q3273034
2002 Q4301952002 Q4274435
2003 Q1302542003 Q1276082
2003 Q2303752003 Q2277686
2003 Q3304942003 Q3280743
2003 Q4305682003 Q4283734
2004 Q1306492004 Q1285764
2004 Q2306832004 Q2288357
2004 Q3306852004 Q3289441
2004 Q4308522004 Q4291123
2005 Q1310182005 Q1291764
2005 Q2310402005 Q2293078
2005 Q3311382005 Q3294588
2005 Q4312532005 Q4296486
2006 Q1312762006 Q1299301
2006 Q2312942006 Q2301371
2006 Q3313122006 Q3303495
2006 Q4314122006 Q4306121
2007 Q1314312007 Q1308527
2007 Q2315362007 Q2311170
2007 Q3316072007 Q3312926
2007 Q4316112007 Q4314662
2008 Q1316522008 Q1315510
2008 Q2316782008 Q2315629
DYDCUK Workforce jobs (SA) : Total - thousands (LMT table B11)ABMIGross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted
Seasonally adjustedSeasonally adjusted
Updated on 12/ 9/2008Constant 2003 prices
Updated on 22/ 8/2008
Most immigrants come from outside the EU
SOURCES OF NET MIGRATION
'000's
EMBED MSGraph.Chart.8 \s
A8
EU15
Net Non EU Migration
_1289820159.xls
GAD net immigration assumptions and reality.the scale of future migration has been consistently underestimated.
Source: http://www.mori.com/polls/trends/issues.shtml#1993Actual figures are 60.587 start population, 62.294 end on natural change, 77.236 on principal population and 65.437 on balanced migration basis.