1

PreliminaryReport

HydrogenScotland:ARoutetoExportPowerhouse

BoostingProductivitywithExisting,Emerging,andFutureRenewableEnergyTechnologies

RonaldMacDonaldDonaldMacRae

Co-FoundersHIAlba-IDEA

Contents

1. AmmoniaasStoreofRenewableEnergy

2. ScaleofAmmonia-HydrogenOpportunity

3. ExistingTechnologiestoProduceAmmoniafromRenewableEnergy

4. EmergingTechnologiestoProduceAmmoniafromRenewableEnergy

5. FutureTechnologiestoProduceAmmoniafromRenewableEnergy

6. BoostingtheScottishEconomybyAdvancingRenewableEnergyTechnologies

6.1 ExistingDemand6.1.1ReplacementofFossilFuelImports6.1.2RoboticsandDronesinAgriculture6.1.3VerticalFarming:390TimesMoreProductiveThanFieldFarms?

6.2 EmergingDemand6.2.1Transportation6.2.2MoltenMetalBatteries6.2.3RenewableElectrificationofMetalProduction

6.3 FutureDemand6.3.1DistributedLedgerTechnology6.3.2HyperloopandtheBoringCompany6.3.3WirelessElectricityTransmission

6.4 ExistingDisruptionofSupply6.4.1Stepdecreaseinpriceofwindpower6.4.2Storedsolarandgeo-thermalpower–roadenergyandair-conditioning6.4.3MistySolar

6.5 EmergingDisruptionofSupply6.5.1TypesofSolarPanels6.5.2GameChangingPotentialinOptoelectronicsDevicesIncludingSolarPVs6.5.3RevolutionisingWindTurbinesandBlades6.5.4WaveandTidalEnergy6.5.5FloatingWindFarms6.5.6AmmoniaProductionfromOffshoreWind6.5.6CollectingandConvertingOceanandSeaBornePlasticWastetoBioenergy6.5.7PulpandPaperIndustryWastetoBioenergy

6.6 FutureDisruptionofSupply6.6.1IntegrationofRenewableResourcesandInfrastructure6.6.23DHousinginHighlands&IslandsandDevelopingCountrySisterCommunities6.6.2IntegrationofRenewableResourcesandtheBuiltEnvironment

2

1. AmmoniaasStoreofRenewableEnergyTheAustralianCSIRObreakthroughtechnology,projectedtolowermarkedlythecostofproducinghydrogenfromammonia,hasgreatlyenlivenedtheprospectsofusingammoniaasameansofstoringandtransportingrenewableenergy.________________________________________________________________________________________

BOCtocollaboratewithCSIROonrevolutionary$3.4mhydrogenproject

Linktovideopresentation…

________________________________________________________________________________________Thisislikelytoacceleratethepaceofeffortstoimprovethecost-effectivenessofexistingtechnologiesusingrenewableenergytomanufactureammoniaandtoincentivisetheemergenceoflower-costprototypetechnologiesandextremelypromisinglab-basedfuturetechnologies.

Theammoniamarketataglance:

• At180milliontonnespaammoniaisthesecondmostproducedchemicalintheworld

• Predominantuses:fertilisers,explosives,industrialprocessesandrefrigeration• Foodproductionwouldonlymeettheneedsof4billionwithoutammoniaproducts• Priceshaverangedbetween$US500andUS$900pertonnesince2012• Consumptionisgrowingatabout3%pa• DominantproducersareChina,RussiaandtheUSA

Atpresentabout95%ofthepowerforammoniaproductionisfromfossilfuelswithattendantpollutionamountingtoabout3%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions.Mostproductionusesthe100-yearsoldHaber-Bosch(H-B)chemicalprocessinwhichmethanefromnaturalgasorcoalgasandoxygenformammoniaunderextremepressureandtemperature,requiringmassiveenergyinputs.Naturalgaspricesandavailabilitygreatlyaffectthecostofproductionandthecapacityforcertaincountriestobeammoniaindependent.That’sthepresent.Whataboutthemediumterm,2020-2030?Foraglimpse,considertheSouthKoreanGovernment’splantoreplacethecountry’sapproximately26,000compressednaturalgas(CNG)buseswithhydrogen-poweredvehicles,reportedTHECHOSUNILBO.Thegovernmentwillallowexistingfillingandgasstationstosetuphydrogenfuelpumpsandencouragecompaniestodevelopmajorpartsforhydrogenvehiclessuchasmeasurementsensorsandhydrogenstoragetanks.Andthat’sjustSouthKoreanbuses.Inaddition,hydrogenfuel-cellscouldwellfindincreasinguseinpowering:

a) Trucks–movinggoodsaroundthePortofLA

b) Trains–world’sfirstordersinGermany

c) Planes–replacingjetfuelswithliquidhydrogen

d) Ships–recenthydrogenfuel-cellsystemsformaritimeapplications,firstcruiseshipscheduled

e) Rockets–NASAhasusedhydrogenasrocketfuelfordecadesbutforinterstellartravelhavecommissioneda2017studyoffusionrockets.

3

This2017studyofelectricbustechnologiescomparestheperformanceofdieselbuseswithhybridelectricbuses(generatingelectricityonboardusingadieselengine),fuel-cellelectricbuses(generatingelectricityonboardusinghydrogenfuel-cells)andbatteryelectricbuses(storeelectricityon-board,chargedovernightorintermittentlyenroute).Thestudyconcludes:

“Today,electricbuses(EBs)holdaclearadvantageoverdieselbusesinseveralperformancecategories,particularlythereduction(orelimination)oftailpipeandgreenhousegasemissions.Electricbusesmayalsodeliverbenefitsintermsofenergyefficiency,environmentalimpact,passengercomfort,andintegrationwithrenewableenergysources.EBsarealreadybecomingthebusofchoiceforanumberofcitiesandpublictransportprovidersworldwide.WhileEBsstillsufferfromincreasedvehiclekerbweightandhighertotalcostsofownership,ongoingtechnologydevelopmentandincreasedproductionvolumesshouldreducetheseobstaclesincomingyears.”

However,incontrasttotheprospectsforhydrogenfuel-cellbuses,trucks,trains,shipsandplanestherearecompetingcommercialinterestsforandagainstthedevelopmentofhydrogenfuel-cellcars.Whileitmakessenseforthefossilfuelandcarmanufacturingindustriestolobbyforthehydrogencar,essentiallyaproductlineextensionforthem,formerUSDOESecretaryStevenChuwasquotedinthearticle“ToyotavsTesla:Canhydrogenfuel-cellcarscompetewithEVs:“Weaskedourselves,‘Isitlikelyinthenext10,15,20yearsthatwewillconverttoahydrogencareconomy?’Theanswerwasno.”AcompellingcontraryviewfromWashingtonStateUniversityconcludes:

“Theentireproblemisthatfolksviewthis‘race’asacompetitioninthefirstplace.Thatcreatesanunnecessaryracetothebottom.Weneedallofourcleanenergysolutionstobesubstantiallysuccessful—andfast.WhatI’veshownhereisthatinmany,ifnoteveryway,hydrogenfuel-cellvehicletechnologiesaresynergisticwithbatteryelectricvehicles.Ourgoalshouldbethebestofbothworlds.”

ThisisreinforcedbyShellinhedgingtheirbetsbybuyingtheretailfuelnetworkFirstUtilitytoprovideacomprehensivenetworkofrenewableenergysuper-chargersforelectricvehiclesthroughouttheUKandGermanyaswellastheongoingdeliveryofoil,dieselandnaturalgas.AtthesametimeShellisalsopartofseveralinitiativestoencouragetheadoptionandroleofhydrogeninthefutureoftransport.Athree-waybetfromthecorporatewithaworld-leadingscenarioplanningcapacity.AlsorelevantisthesuitfiledbyNewYorkCityagainstBP,Chevron,Conoco-Phillips,ExxonMobilandRoyalDutchShell,theworld’sfivelargestpubliclytradedoilcompanies,seekingtoholdthemresponsibleforpresentandfuturedamagestothecityfromclimatechange,throughtheoilandgasproductstheyhavesoldovertheyears.Italsochargesthatthecompaniesandtheindustryofwhichtheyareparthaveknownforsometimeabouttheconsequencesbutsoughttoobscurethem.AsoflateJanuary2018,nineUScitieshavedonelikewise.Willthisincreasinglycompelthesemajorstoconsiderimplementinginitiativessuchasthedevelopmentoftherenewableammonia-hydrogenfuelcycleonamassivescale?WouldthisbeanopportunityforBPtodomorethantoutthemselvesasthe"BeyondPetroleum”companywithvastlylesscostlyenvironmentalriskthanoffshoreoil&gasexplorationandproductionjustasTrump’soffshoreoildrillingplansignorethelessonsofBPDeepwaterHorizon.

4

2. ScaleofAmmonia-HydrogenOpportunityProvidingrenewableammonia-hydrogenfuelfora26Kbusfleetwouldrequiretheconstructionofrenewable(wind/solar/wave)energyfarmsgeneratingabout8,700MWwithanestimatedcapitalrequirementof£8.4bn1.Thiscouldbeachievedthroughtheinstallationsat,say,25locationsacrosstheHighlands&Islands(HI)eachgeneratinganaverageof368MW.Toputthisincontext,afurther15MW-16MWwoulddeliverthepowerforapopulationofabout10,000residentsintheregionofeachlocation.Ifweassumethattheavailabilityofincreasinglyeconomicrenewablepowerwoulddeliveracapacitytomanufacturehighvalue-addedproductsforexportmarketsdrawingmainlyonlocalnaturalresources,thenafurther116MWwouldbringtherenewableenergyfarmcapacitytoabout500MWateachlocation,increasingtheestimatedcapitalrequirementto£12bnforatotalof12,500MW,morethantwiceScotland’sinstalledwindpowercapacityof5,328MWasofMarch2015.Beyondthiscanweenvisagerenewablehydrogenenergystoredinammoniaforexportonascale100timesScotland’senergyneedsorgreaterthanthemaximumannualproductionofenergyfromoil&gassourcedfromtheNorthSeainthepast50years?WouldwecatchDutchdiseaseortaketheNorwegiansovereignwealthroute?Renewableenergytoammoniaproductiontechnologies–existing,emerging,future–areoutlinedinthenextthreesectionsofthispaper.ThefinalsectionidentifiesawiderangeofopportunitiesforScotlandtobenefitfromcontributingtoandadoptingadvancesinexisting,emergingandfuturerenewableenergytechnologiestomeetgrowingglobaldemandsforenergyontheonehandanddisruptingthesupplymodesofenergyontheother.Inotherpaperstheauthorsareconductingfurtherinvestigationsof:

a) InnovationinBuildingSocialCapitaltoMaximiseWell-Being

b) InvestmentinDemonstrationsofHydrogenScotlandTechnologies

c) InvestmentintheDeploymentofHydrogenScotlandTechnologiesandAdvances

d) ScopingtheExtentofEco-Industrialising2theHighlandsandIslands:Proposedeco-industrialisationoftheHighlandsandIslandswouldfocusonthemanufactureofhighvalue-addedproductsforexportmarketsdrawingmainlyonlocalnaturalresources,includingseaweed,peatandbogiron.

e) CroftingasaCatalystfortheHydrogenScotlandDevelopmentandEco-Industrialisation

f) GreenprintforaLeadCommunityontheIsleofSkye:Theattractionofinvestmentinprototypedemonstrationsoftheexisting/emerging/futureammoniaproductiontechnologiesandamodeleco-industrialpark3(EIP)inSkyeasaleadingdemonstrationsupportingtheattractionofthemassiveinvestmentinrenewableenergygenerationforeshadowed.

g) EvaluationoftheNationalSocio-EconomicandEnvironmentalImpactsofMultipleCommunities:Articulationanddepictionofamodelcommunityof10,000residentsoperatinga500MWrenewableenergyfarmtomeetlocalpowerneeds,amajorammonia-hydrogenexportenterpriseandtheoperationofamajoreco-industrialparkfollowedbythedevelopmentandapplicationofacomputablegeneralequilibriummodel(CGEM)toassessthenational/regional/multisectoreconomicandenvironmentalimpactsof25suchcommunitiesthroughouttheHighlandsandIslands.

h) AppraisalofManufacturingandServiceExportOpportunitiesfromImplementingHydrogenScotland

i) ABusinessCaseforOperatinganImplementationCapacityontheIsleofSkye

1SouthAustralianGreenHydrogenStudy:AreportfortheGovernmentofSouthAustralia(page6).BywayofcomparisonasreportedinTheTimes,Dec2017:PlannedexpenditureonHeathrowT5nowreducedtoabout£14billionabout£2billionmorethantheestimatedpotentiallymassiveproductivity-boostinginvestmentin25x500MWwindfarms.2Eco-industrialisationorIndustrialSymbiosisisaclosedloopproductioncyclecontinuouslyimprovingenvironmentalandeconomicoutcomes.Mutuallybeneficialconnectionsamongindustry,naturalsystems,energy,materialandlocalcommunitiesbecomecentralfactorsindesigningeco-industrialproductionprocesses.3Deliversinter-businesscooperationwiththelocalcommunitytoreducewasteandpollution,efficientlysharingresources(suchasinformation,materials,water,energy,infrastructure,andnaturalresources)toachievesustainabledevelopmentbyincreasingeconomicgainsandimprovingenvironmentalquality.

5

3. ExistingTechnologiestoProduceAmmoniafromRenewableEnergyRenewableenergyaccountsforonlyabout5%ofsocalled”green”ammoniaproduction,chieflyfromhydroelectricityasreportedanddepictedinthefigurebelowfromtheHydroWorld.compaperRenewableFuels:ManufacturingAmmoniafromHydropower.

TobeviableammoniasynthesisbytheHaber-Bosch(H-B)processorSolid-StateAmmoniaSynthesis(SSAS)process(discussedinthenextsection)requiressteadyflowsofcheapelectricity.Rapidadvancesinloweringthecostsofbatterystoragetechnologiestohandlewind,waveandsolarpowerintermittencytogetherwithrapidlydecreasingcostsofgeneratingwindandsolarpowerislikelytoprovideneartermsolutionsthatwillsurpassmarkedlythefinancialviabilityofhydroandwithoutitsadverseexternalities.Manycountriesareeitherinvestigatingammonia-hydrogenproductionorfundingprototypeoperationstogainexperienceinusingabundant,lowcostrenewableenergytoproduceammoniaforlocalfarm-basedandotherusesorinsomecasesforexportingonlargetomassivescales.InScotland,the2006reportoftheHydrogenEnergyGroupnotedthatrenewableenergyresourcesareprimarilylocatedintheHighlandsandIslands(paragraph42,page13).Amongotherthings,thishasledtoprojectsdesignedtogainexperienceintheapplicationoffuelcelltechnologiestoconvertrenewableenergygeneratedhydrogentopowerfortransportationpurposesatthelocallevel:

a) HI-EnergyfundedHebrideanHydrogenParkinwhichhydrogenisproducedbyelectrolysisthenstoredforusebypostaldeliveryvehicles.

b) HIEfundedOrkneySurf'n'TurfprojecttoproducehydrogenfromtidalpowerthentransporttoKirkwallforfuelcellconversionbackintoelectricityforuseasauxiliarypowerforferries.

c) PublicandprivatepartnershipfundedAberdeenHydrogenBusProjectusinghydrogenproducedfroma1MWelectrolysertopowera10fuel-cellbusfleetoperatinginpublicrevenueservice.

In2014ScottishEnterprisefundedthereport“Ruralstudyontoammonia-hydrogenproduction”,whichrecommended“thatinordertotestthefeasibilityofthisconcept,asmall-scaledevice(100-300kWhydrogenfacility)shouldbetakenforwardinordertoevaluateitspracticality,atanestimatedtotalcapitalcostofaround£2million”.AcaseiscurrentlybeingdevelopedfortheIsleofSkyetobeusedasalocationforsuchatestusingrenewableenergyaswellasaprototypeplantfortheemergingSSAStechnologyandthepotentiallygame-changing,lab-basedtechnologybeingdevelopedatGlasgowUniversityconsideredinthefollowingsections.

6

Giventhetechnologyadvancessince2014,itmaybeworthconductingafurtherstudytoevaluatetheeconomicsofproducingammoniabydrawingpowerfromanexistingmajorhydroelectricinstallation.OnepossibilitywouldbecomparingtheeconomicsofusingtheLochaberhydroelectricpowerfacilitytoproduceammoniaforexportinsteadofcurrentplanstoupgradetheexistingsmeltingplantandplanneddownstreamoperationstoextendaluminiumingotproductiontothemanufactureofaluminiumrolledproductsandautoparts.Onetheonehand,theformerrequiresair,water,cheapelectricityandashortpipelinetotankerdistributionand/orlocalproductionofawiderangeofammonia-basedproductsforlocaluseandexport.Ontheother,thereisaneedtoimportalumina,usemassiveamountsof“cheap”hydroelectricpowerfor:

(a)aluminiumsmeltingwithitsadverseexternalities;

(b)convertaluminiumingotstorollingstock;and

(c)subsequentmanufactureofautoparts,andfinallyexportthesevariousproducts.

InAustralia,ammonia-hydrogenisbeingviewedas“ournextgreatexport”:

7

4. EmergingTechnologiestoProduceAmmoniafromRenewableEnergyAcomparisonofthepowerrequirementsoftheelectrolysisandH-BprocesswiththeSolidStateAmmoniaSynthesis(SSAS)processfortheproductionofammoniaisshowninthediagramsbelowfromUSAbasedcompanyNHThreeLLc(NHThree).

8

NHThreehavedevelopedandpatentedanSSAStechnologytoproduceammoniaatalowercostthantheH-Bprocess,andwiththeobviousenvironmentaladvantageofnotusingfossilfuelfeedstock.ThekeyprocessesinSSASare:a) dissociatinggaseousH2OintogaseousO2andadsorbedH+b) transportingH+throughaprotonconductingmembranec) reactingH+withadsorbedN2tomakeNH3.SSASplantswilldifferfromrenewableenergyconfiguredH-Bplantsthrough:a) reducedcapitalandoperatingcostsb) designflexibilityenhancingplug&playfeatures,remotemonitoringtoincreasesuitabilityforoperatingin

remotelocationsc) lesseningpressuresontheenvironment.SSAScouldsolveproblemsassociatedwithrenewableelectricalenergy:a) loadlevelling,interalia,postponinginvestmentsinnewgeneratingcapacityb) night-timeproductionofelectricityc) conversionofstranded(generatedatlocationsremotefromthegrid)electricityintotransportationfuel.NHThree:“SSAScouldbethe"killerapp"thatwillallowclean-nuclear,hydro,solar,andwindpowergenerationtoreducetheworld'sdependenceonfossilfuels.”InAustralia,technologycompanyAlchemyofAirPty(AOA)LtdhassecuredexclusiverightstomanufactureandrollouttheNHThreetechnologyinaterritorythatincludesAustralasia,themajorityofAsiaandtheMiddleEastincludingIsrael.ThepubliclylistedAustraliancompanyAuthorisedInvestmentFundLimited(ASX:AIY)hasagreedtopurchase30%ofAOA.Notetheoxygenproducedasaby-productcanbeusedforotherchemicalprocesseswithineco-industrialparks(EIPs)orexportedasarelativelyvaluableproduct.MovequicklyandanopportunitymayexistforaScottishHighlands’concerntosecuretherightstomanufacturethetechnologyfortheEuropeanmarket,initiallytestingthetechnologythenrollingitoutthroughouttheHighlandsinpartnershipwithappropriatecommunities,includingthepossibilityofactiveinvolvementbycroftingcommunitiesintheestablishmentandoperationofEIPs.Asnotedabove,acaseisbeingmadefortheIsleofSkyetotestthistechnologyandtotakealeadinrollingouttheprocessthroughouttheHighlands.5. FutureTechnologiestoProduceAmmoniafromRenewableEnergyAresearchgroupatGlasgowUniversityhavelab-testedaprocessthatproduceshydrogen30timesfasterthantheleadingcommercialelectrolyserswhichneedcatalystsmadeofpreciousmetal,highpressuresandasnotedabovemassiveinputsofelectricityfromrenewableenergysources.WritinginthejournalSciencein2014,thegroupclaimstheirprocesswillincreasehydrogenproductionwithlowerpowerloadsatnormalatmosphericpressure.Insteadofremainingagas,requiringstorageathighpressuresandlowtemperatures,theirprocesswillstorehydrogeninacarbon-freeliquid.SpeakingtoBBCScotland,thegroupleaderProfCroninsaysit'lltaketimeandmoneytoachievethescaleofanindustrialprocess:"Ithinkformakingsomethingthat'sgoingtogetintoareallylargesystem,it'sgoingtotakeuptotenyears.Hopefullywe'llinspireacompanytogetstartedandputthetechnologyinthatcompany."TheprocesshasalreadybeenpatentedthroughfinancialsupportfromScottishEnterprise.Asnotedabove,acaseisbeingmadefortheIsleofSkyetoprovidealocationfortestingthistechnologyoncesufficientlydeveloped.

9

6. BoostingtheScottishEconomybyAdvancingRenewableEnergyTechnologies6.1 ExistingDemand6.1.1ReplacementofFossilFuelImportsAsreportedinTheTimes(13December2017),“BritainhasmetjustunderhalfofitswintergasneedsinrecentyearsfromNorthSeaproductionanddomesticstoragesites.TheremainderhascomebypipelinefromNorwayandtheContinent,andthroughimportsofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)byshipfromcountriessuchasQatar.”Andthat’sjustBritainamongmostnationsthatwillseektoreplacesuchfossilfuelimportswithpowergeneratedathome,increasinglyviarenewableswithsurplusproductionconvertedtostorableandtransportableammonia.Whiletheammoniaexportsfrom25x500MWwindfarmsacrosstheHighlandswouldscarcelymakeadentinthisdemand,itholdsthepotentialtopoweranimmenselyproductivesub-economycapableofboostingthewholeScottisheconomyasoutlinedbelow.6.1.2RoboticsandDronesinAgricultureAsreportedbyComputeScotlandroboticanddronetechnologiesareplayingincreasingrolesinraisingtheproductivityofagricultureinScotland.Robotmachineryanddronesarelikelytobecomemainstreamasrenewableenergybecomesthelowestcostoption.Atthesametimesensors/dronesand“bigdata”applicationswillreducetheneedforskilleddriversoftractorsandawiderangeofagriculturalmachinery.Theuseofdronestoapplyingpesticidesatthepointofneedratherthanaerialsprayingwillleadtolesspollutionofwaterways.Thesameappliestoincreasinglyeffectiveapplicationoffertilisers,includingammonia-basedandseaweed-basedfertilisers.ConceivablyeachHI-EIPcouldhouseanenterprisewiththecapacitytoapplythesetechnologiestocrofting,farmingandseaweedharvesting.6.1.3VerticalFarming:390TimesMoreProductiveThanFieldFarms?

AeroFarms VertiCrop:VerticalFarming

10

AeroFarms’headquartersinNewark,NewJersey,isaformersteelfactorythat'sbeenconvertedintotheworld'slargestverticalfarm.Throughoutthe6,410m2ofgrowingspace,plantbedsarestackedontopofeachotherin12layersbetweenfloorandceiling.LEDsprovidelightingandtherootsofleafygreens,herbsandsaladsarekeptnourishedusingan"aeroponic"mistclaimedtouse95%lesswaterthanoutdooragriculture."Thisisgame-changingintermsofproductivity,"explainsMarcOshima,AeroFarms'co-founder."Wecantakethesameseedthatmighttake30-35daystogrowoutside,anditwillhavea12-16daycrop-cycleinoursystem,sowecanhave20cropcyclesayear."AeroFarms'agriculturaloptimisationreliesonalgorithmsthatcontinuallymonitornutrientsandlightingatdifferentpointsintheplants'growthcycles.Byoptimisinglightwavelengthsandthenutrient-filledmist,operatorscanendowplantswithdifferenttastes,textures,coloursandyield."Forexample,wecanmakewatercressspicierandlettucesweeter,"hesays.Theflagshipfacility,inpartnershipwithRBH,PrudentialandGoldmanSachswillbeabletoproduce900,000kgofvegetables--whichwillbedistributedtolocalbuyers--annuallywhenitreachesfullcapacity,predictedformidwaythrough2016.AlsodepictedistheverticalfarmingventureVertiCropusingahydroponictechnologywiththeclaimof20timesmoreyieldthanopenfieldagriculture.Clearlyanassessmentoftheforegoingproductivity/yieldclaimswouldprecedeseriousinvestigationofthesetechnologies,forexample,asacorebusinessfacilitywithineachoftheprojected25HIeco-industrialparks(HI-EIPs),distributingtheirproductsinkelp-basedbiodegradablepackaging-producedbyselectHI-EIPsforgeneralEIPusageandasanexportproduct–asdryfoodsforexport,asfreshfoodsforlocalandregionalconsumptionandasaninputtohigh-valueaddedfoodproducts-forcoldstorageforgourmetmarkets,cookchillforgourmetmarketsandhospitalsandsousvideforleadingrestaurants.ThecapitalcostoflandacquisitionandbuildingswouldbeverydifferentfromtheAeroFarms’caseunlessfit-for-purposesolutionsareofferedbyanyofthe173buildingsontheBuildingsatRiskRegisteracrosstheHighlandsorotherstructures.6.2 EmergingDemand6.2.1TransportationThedemandforwindpowerandallrenewableformsofpowergenerationisgoingnowherebutupifweaddtheever-increasingelectrificationoftransportationsystemsglobally:

a) Trucks–startingwithelectrictractorsover20yearsago,alltypesofelectrictrucksarebeingbuilt.Hybriddiesel-electrictruckshavebeeninoperationforover10years.

b) Trains–Railwayelectrificationhasconstantlyincreasedsincetheworld’sfirstordersinGermanyinthelatenineteenthcenturyaccountingby2012fornearlyonethirdoftotaltracksglobally,withScotlandaddingtheGlasgowtoEdinburghrouteby2018andHS2comingonstreamthelate2020s,about20yearsafterHS1.

c) Planes–Boeingbackedhybridjetfuel-electricplanesandEasyJetleaddevelopmentofallelectricplanesinthenextdecade.

d) Ships–Perhapsthedayiscomingwhenallcontainerswillarrivedocksideonelectrictrucksor(preferably)trainsfortransportingbyelectricships.

e) Rockets–“Insteadoffuel,plasmajetenginesuseelectricitytogenerateelectromagneticfields,compressingandexcitingagas,suchasairorargon,intoaplasma–ahot,denseionisedstatesimilartothatinsideafusionreactororstar.”

6.2.2MoltenMetalBatteriesFurther,addthesurgesindemandthatwillarisefromtheuseofrenewableelectricityinthepollution-freeproductionofmetals(beyondthe“congealed”electricityalreadyusedinconvertingaluminatoaluminium),oftenfromhydrosourcessuchastheLochaberoperationnotedabove.Asanexample,MITresearchhasledtotheprototypedevelopmentofmoltenmetalbatteriesforpotentiallycheap,long-lastingstorageofrenewableenergytoovercometheproblemofintermittency,incompetitionwiththerapiddevelopmentanduseoflithium-ionbatteriesforthestorageofrenewablepower.Therecentstart-upcompany,Ambri,aimstoacceleratethedevelopmentofthistechnology.

11

6.2.3RenewableElectrificationofMetalProductionAvariationofthisMITtechnologyisalsobeingdevelopedtorenewablyelectrifytheproductionof“green”iron,steelandothermetalsthrough“anewanodematerialforoxygenevolutioninmoltenoxideelectrolysis”publishedinNatureandsubsequentlyreportedbyMITPress.Itisanticipatedthatthepollution-freesteelproductionprocesswillbecommerciallyviableatthescaleofafewthousandtonnesperannum,anorderofmagnitudelessthancurrentviablesteelmakingoperationsandconjuringtheimageofreopeningthebogironoreminesofthenorthernHighlandstoproduce“green”steelatanumberEIPsinthisregion.TheseandmanyotherminesaredescribedinthepublicationEconomicmineralsofScotland–bedrockofScotland'seconomicdevelopment.AsthisrecentMcKinseyarticleclaims,smallmetalandminingprojectscanoperateprofitably.6.2.4HydrogenandGraphiteProductionfromOnshoreNaturalGasorBiomethaneandBogIronJobsbythethousandsandpoundsbythebillionsifonlyScotlandwouldbowtothepressureofexploitingitsonshoreoilandgasreserves.Eveninareaswheretherewouldbeminimalenvironmentalimpactsthereisstilltheenvironmentaldownsideoftransporting,refiningandpollutingusesoftheextractions.Butwhatifthenaturalgasextractedcouldbeusedonsitetoachievecarbonneutraloutcomes.ThisistheprospectofferedbythedevelopersoftheHazerProcesstoenabletheeffectiveconversionofnaturalgas,andsimilarfeedstocks,intohydrogenandhigh-qualitygraphitetomeetburgeoningglobaldemand,usingverycheapironoreratherthanpreciousmetalsasaprocesscatalyst.QuestioniswhethertherearemultiplelocationsthroughouttheHighlandsandIslandsthatcouldco-locatebogironandnaturalgasextractionforefficientoperationofthisprocess.Orcouldthehydrogenproducedbeusedtotransportthebogirontotheproductionsiteaswellastotransporttheprocessedgraphiteandthehydrogentoendusers?ThedevelopersoftheHazerProcessarealsobetteringcarbonneutraloutcomesbyusingbiomethaneforcarbonnegativeoutcomes.Scotlandisalreadyrepletewithbiomethaneproductionfacilitieswithmoreindevelopment.WhatprospectsarethereforseveraloftheproposedEIPsproducingbiomethanefromlocal“waste”materialsforhydrogen-graphiteproduction?Howfeasiblewoulditbetoco-locatetheseoperationswiththeproductionoflithium-graphitebatteriesfortherapidgrowingelectricalvehiclemarket,sourcingandshippingthelithiumfromUKminingoperationsbeingdevelopedbyCornishLithium?Howfeasiblewoulditbetofurtherco-locatewithaplantfortheproductionofgraphenefromgraphiteformoreefficientlithium-graphenebatteriesandfortheemergingmyriadapplicationsofthesuperstrengthpropertiesofgraphene.Talkingofadvancedmaterials,TheScottishcompanyCelluCompwiththemission“materialchangeforgood”isproducingarangeofadvanced“sustainable”materialsfromwasteorastheyputit“nanocellulosefibresofrootvegetables”.Doesthisportendscopeforfurthersymbioticsynergiesforco-locationinEIPswithabundantcheaprenewableenergyontap?Theprospectsareendless.AforthcomingpaperonHI-EIPswillsurveyawiderangeofprospectsindepthandprovidetheviewsofproponentsandspecialistsontheirfeasibility.6.3 FutureDemand6.3.1DistributedLedgerTechnologyItisanticipatedthatoverwhelmingelectricalenergywillberequiredtooperatedistributedledgertechnologies(DLTs)services.Forexample,inthecaseofFrancematchingorexceedingsome15%ofthenationalelectricityconsumptionispresentlyaccountedforbydigitaltechnology.DLTserviceswillincludetheapplicationofblockchainandvarianttechnologiesandassociatedenergy-intensive“mining”effortsunderpinningover1,000cryptocurrenciesledbyBitcoinandamyriadofenvisagedsmartcontractservicesledbyEthereum.Thisrapidgrowthinenergydemandisleadingtothecreationof“energy-light”algorithmssuchasthatunderpinningthecryptocurrencyprovidedbyLitecoin.Conceivablyregulationwillrequirealgorithmstoenacttheimperative:useonlyrenewablepowerinabidtodecarbonisetheenvironmentalimpactofDLTs.OrthecommercialimperativeasreportedintheTimes(Jan.2018):“AtGoogle’sDeepmindinLondon,algorithmsarepreparingtosavethesearchenginecompanyafortuneinenergybillsbyrethinkingitselectricitydistributionsystem.”Rollonquantumcomputing….

12

AfurthercontrollingprospectistobalancetheburgeoningenergydemandofDLTswiththeuseofsmartcontractstooptimiseefficienciesintheretailenergymarkets,wherebydistributedledgerscanactas“anewdrivertoenhancethelevelofintegrationanddevelopmentoftheenergyretailmarketdeliveringbenefits”1suchas:(a)maximisingthereturnstoconsumerswhogeneratetheirownpowerandselltheirexcesstothegrid–producingconsumersorprosumers;and(b)consumersenterintoanenergycontractledgersystemthatfacilitatesachangeinenergysupplierattheclickofafewbuttonsonamobiledevice.6.3.2HyperloopandtheBoringCompanyHyperloop:“Hyperloopisanewmodeoftransportationthatmovesfreightandpeoplequickly,safely,on-demandanddirectfromorigintodestination.PassengersorcargoareloadedintotheHyperloopvehicleandaccelerategraduallyviaelectricpropulsionthroughalow-pressuretube.Thevehiclefloatsabovethetrackusingmagneticlevitationandglidesatairlinespeedsforlongdistancesduetoultra-lowaerodynamicdrag.HyperloopOnesystemswillbebuiltoncolumnsortunnelledbelowgroundtoavoiddangerousgradecrossingsandwildlife.It’sfullyautonomousandenclosed,eliminatingpiloterrorandweatherhazards.It’ssafeandclean,withnodirectcarbonemissions.WatchthisvideotogetanideaofhowHyperloopworks.”BoringCompany:“Tosolvetheproblemofsoul-destroyingtraffic,roadsmustgo3D,whichmeanseitherflyingcarsortunnels.Unlikeflyingcars,tunnelsareweatherproof,outofsightandwon'tfallonyourhead.Alargenetworkoftunnelsmanylevelsdeepwouldfixcongestioninanycity,nomatterhowlargeitgrew(justkeepaddinglevels).Thekeytomakingthisworkisincreasingtunnellingspeedanddroppingcostsbyafactorof10ormore–agoalofTheBoringCompany.Fasttodig,lowcosttunnelswouldalsomakeHyperloopadoptionviableandenablerapidtransitacrossdenselypopulatedregions,enablingtravelfromNewYorktoWashingtonDCinlessthan30minutes.”6.3.3WirelessElectricityTransmissionRecentadvancesinwirelesselectricitytransmission(firstdemonstratedbyNicolaTeslanearly130yearsago)haveledStanfordscientistsreportinginNatureonadvancesinpoweringelectricvehicles:

“Intheory,onecoulddriveforanunlimitedamountoftimewithouthavingtostoptorecharge.Thehopeisthatyou’llbeabletochargeyourelectriccarwhileyou’redrivingdownthehighway.Acoilinthebottomofthevehiclecouldreceiveelectricityfromaseriesofcoilsconnectedtoanelectriccurrentembeddedintheroad.”

Thedistantfuture:

a) SolarenergyelectricaltransmissionfromstationsontheMoontospacecraftorbitingtheEarthoronacoursetotheplanetsorwillharnessingfusionobviate?

b) RedirectingcometsorasteroidsonapredictedcollisioncoursewithEarthfromtransmissionstationsontheMoontargetingmassivecoilsinstalledonthecometsorasteroidsorafusiondirectedmissile?

6.4 ExistingDisruptionofSupply6.4.1StepdecreaseinpriceofwindpowerInadditiontotheemergingmassivedemandforrenewableenergyfromthetechnologicallydisruptingelectrificationofmetalproductionandmoltenmetalbatteriesnotedabove,anincreasinglycompellingcasetoreplacefossilfuelimportsgloballywithrenewableammonia-hydrogenmayariseasthepriceofrenewableenergyfalls.Asanexampleofapotentiallydisruptingexistingtechnology,anticipatedpositivedevelopmentsinwindenergyplanttechnologyhaveledtopredictedonshorewindpowerprices(ataNovember2017auction)inGermanyfallingtoaboutathirdofthepriceofenergyfromthenewHinkleynuclearpowerplantintheUK.2Isthislikelytoleadtoamarkeddecreaseintheestimated£12bncostofthe25x500MWwindfarms?1DistributedLedgerTechnology:beyondblockchain(pp76-77),UKGovernmentOfficeforScience,Jan2016andtheVideo.2WindpowerpriceshaveplummetedagaininGermany,RenewEconomy,Nov2017.

13

6.4.2Storedsolarandgeo-thermalpower–roadenergyandair-conditioning

Inthepast30yearsallmannerofsolarandgeothermaltechnologieshasbeendevelopedandappliedinScotlandandworldwideforroadheating(ice-freeinwinter)andcooling(ofoverheatedtarmacinsummer).Thesameenergystoragesystemsusedtoachievetheseoutcomesarealsobeingusedwithheatpumpstopowertheair-conditioningofbuildings.Inthemaintheseareone-offapplications,customisedforspecificsituationssuchaslow-costharnessingofsolarandgeothermalenergy.Asyetno“game-changing”technologieshavebeendevelopedinthisspace.Inasfarasthesetechnologiescanbeutilisedcost-effectivelyinHI-EIPs,it’sworthnotingthattheUllapool-basedfirmInvisibleHeatiswellplacedtoprovideadviceonapplications.6.4.3MistySolar

Solarpanelsgeneratethemostelectricityonclearsunnydays,typicallydroppingoncloudydaysby10-25%oftheirratedcapacitydependingonthedensityofthecloudsandtheirdiffuselightreceptivity.Panelsengineeredtocaptureabroaderrangeofthesolarspectrumgeneratemoreelectricityevenwhenit’sovercast,withthepaybackperiodfortheMistyIsleonlyabout20%longerthanthebestUKlocation.

SolarPanelGenerationintheUKbyLocation

Location SolarEnergyGeneration(kWh/1kWp)Approx.PaybackTermsona4kWpPlymouth 2.61 6years&2monthsBrighton 2.48 6years&5monthsBristol 2.46 6years&5monthsNorwich 2.44 6years&10monthsBirmingham,Hull&Liverpool 2.31 7yearsNewcastle 2.29 7years&1monthCarlisle 2.23 7years&3monthsDumfries&Aberdeen 2.21 7years&5monthsGlasgow 2.13 7years&8monthsIslesofSkye 2.10 7years&9monthsThurso 2.04 7years&10months

AndthisfromRKJoinery,Portree-basedinstallerofsolarpanelsandair/groundsourceheatpumps:

“SolarenergypanelsarebyfaroneofthemostpopularrenewableenergysolutionsinvestedinbyhomeownersintheSkyeandLochalsharea.Thepanelscapturedirectenergyfromthesunwhichisthenconvertedtoelectricitytoheatandpoweryourhome.Thepanelsfunctionindaylightandcloudcoverisnotanissue.Asyouaregeneratingyourownenergythisoffersasignificantsavingonyourutilitybills.”

6.5 EmergingDisruptionofSupply6.5.1TypesofSolarPanel

Thereareawiderangeofdifferentsolarpanelsavailableincludingtiles,slates,andlightweightfilmsthatallhavetheirbenefitsanddisadvantageswhenitcomestochoosingtherightsolarenergysystem.Solarslatesandtilesarebecomingmorepopularbecausetheyareaestheticallypleasing,economicalanddurable.Addtothisthinfilm,flexiblesolarpanelsthatcanbeintegratedintoanyshapewhichmeansthattheyhaveawiderrangeofuses,includingoncaravansandtents.6.5.2GameChangingPotentialinOptoelectronicsDevicesIncludingSolarPVs

AsreportedinNature(September2017),perovskitematerialshavebecomeverypromisingcandidatesforanewgenerationofpotentiallyprintableandefficientoptoelectronicdevicesincludingsolarpanelsusingphotovoltaics:

“Asof2017,innovativepreparationmethodsgiveaccesstoeverhighermaterialqualityandtunability;perovskite-basedphotovoltaicsresearchisnowmovingbeyondpureefficiencyimprovementsandisexploringscale-up,tandemsandstabilityissues;andapplicationsinlightemissionanddetectioncontinuetosoar,thankstoadeeperunderstandingoftheperovskitesintriguingphysicalproperties.“

14

6.5.3RevolutionisingWindTurbinesandBlades

MaterialsforWindTurbineBlades:AnOverview:Thisrecentreviewcoverstheuseofadvancedmaterialsforincrementalimprovementsinbladeeffectiveness.Whatfollowsareproposalsformajorimprovements.Whilebuildingatever-largerscaleshasreducedwindpowercosts,furtherdeploymentcontinuestobehinderedbythemanufacturingandtransportationoflargeblades,expensiveoperationsandmaintenance,andsitingandtransmissionlimitations.R&Disinthepipelinetomakefurthermarkedreductionsinthecostsandnoiseofwindpowerevenasthetechnologyfacilitatesfasterbladerotation:

1. GEisdevelopingfabric-basedbladestensionwrappedaroundalightweight,easilyaltered,metalstructurestoreducetheirweightandproductioncostsby70%whilemaintainingconventionalwindturbineperformance.

2. Theproductionofleatherfromkelpandjellyfish(notedearlier)leadstothequerywhetheritcouldbeusedtoproducethebladefabricatseveraloftheconjectured25HI-EIPs.

3. AndfromleftfieldorPhys.Org,Nov.2016“Owl-inspiredwingdesignreduceswindturbinenoiseby10decibels”,whilehavingnonegativeimpactonthebladesaerodynamics.

AnassessmentwillbemadeoftheprospectsforanumberoftheHI-EIPsmanufacturingthecomponentsforthefabric-basedblades(depictedbelow)forassemblyonsiteatthe25x500MWwindfarms,referredtoearlier,andbeyondthistoassemblyatthesitesofwindfarmsworldwideasamajorexportinitiative.Lochaberaluminiumsmelterformetalliccomponentsand/orcompositesusingEIPproducedsuper-strengthgraphene(section6.2.4)orbogironsteel(alsosection6.2.3)?____________________________________________________________________________________________________

FabricCoveredBladesCouldMakeWindTurbinesCheaper&MoreEfficient

Illustratedisasectionofawindbladedepictinganewmanufacturingconceptthatwouldentailcoveringthebladewithatensionedfabric,significantlyreducingproductioncostsandmakingwindpowermoreeconomical.ImagebyGE.____________________________________________________________________________________________________Thiswouldenabletheconstructionworldwideofmuchlargerwindturbines(operatingwithinmuchcheapertobuildtowerstructures)thatcancapturemorewindwithsignificantlylowerproductionandtransportationcosts.6.5.4WaveandTidalEnergy

Scotlandhastremendouswaveandtidalenergyresourcesandassuchhasbeenattheforefrontofglobalmarineenergydevelopmentsforthepastdecade.TheOrkneybasedwaveandtidaltestfacility,theEuropeanMarineEnergyCentre(EMEC),withoveradecadeofreal-seaexperiencehasdeployedmoregrid-connectedmarineenergyconvertersthanatanyothersinglesiteintheworldandthecentreremainstheworld’sonlyaccreditedmarineenergylaboratory.1ThepotentialexiststogeneratemoreelectricitythaniscurrentlyneededfromthewatersaroundtheScottishcoast.Asnotedearlier,theOrkneySurf'n'Turfprojecttoproducehydrogenfromtidalpowerisaleading-edgedevelopment,foreshadowingacapacitytogeneratehydrogenlocallyforlocaltransportationpurposes.

WaveEnergyScotland(WES)wasformedin2014attherequestoftheScottishGovernmentasasubsidiaryofHighlandsandIslandsEnterprise.ItsaimistoensurethatScotlandmaintainsaleadingroleinthedevelopmentofmarineenergy.SofarWEShasawarded£25.4mto61projects,workingwith171separateorganisations,across11differentcountries.2

1ThewaveandtidalresourceofScotland,ScienceDirect,Dec20172WaveEnergyScotland

15

6.5.5FloatingWindFarms:RenewableEnergy,AmmoniaProductionandSeaweedHarvestingThefirstfloatingwindturbineintheUSstartedoperationsin2014asrecordedinthisTedTalk.NorwegiancompanyStatoilhasmadethefinalinvestmentdecisiontobuildtheworld’sfirstfloatingwindfarm:TheHywindpilotparkoffshorePeterheadinAberdeenshire,Scotland.Statoilhasinstalleda30MWwindturbinefarmonfloatingstructuresatBuchanDeep,25kmoffshorePeterhead,harnessingScottishwindresourcestoproviderenewableenergytothemainland.Thewindfarmwillpoweraround20,000households.Productionstartisexpectedinlate2017.IreneRummelhoff,Statoil’sexecutivevicepresidentforNewEnergySolutionssays:

“WeareverypleasedtodevelopthisprojectinScotland,inaregionwithahugewindresourceandanexperiencedsupplychainfromoilandgas.Throughindustryandsupportivepolicies,theUKandScotlandistakingapositionattheforefrontofdevelopingoffshorewindasacompetitivenewenergysource.”1

MasdarandStatoilrecentlyannouncedacollaborativeagreementtoanalysedatafromthe“batwind”storagefacilityconnectedtotheHywindwindfarm.Asoldrigscometotheendoftheiruseforoilandgasextractionwoulditmakesenseforthemtocontinueoperationsashubsforfixedandfloatingwindfarms?IncontrasttotheHywinds’developmenttheBeatriceOffshoreWindFarmwillextendtheoperationofthetwowindtowersinstalledadjoiningtheclosingdownoftheBeatriceOilFieldoperations.ShouldtheBeatriceoilrigsbedecommissionedandremovedasplannedorusednotonlyasahubforthiswindfarmbutalsoasafacilitytohouseaplantfortheproductionofammonia?HowfeasiblewoulditbetouseScotland’smanyagingrigsaswindfarmhubsforthispurpose,includingthethreecurrentlystrandedintheCromartyFirth?Couldexistingpipelinesfromoldrigsbeusedtotransferwindenergyproducedammoniatoonshorestorageandtankertransportationtoexportmarketsinpreferencetothedissipationlossesfromlongdistanceelectrical-cabletransferofwindenergytotheonshoregrid?Asithappens,thishasbeenassessedbymeansofasimulationmodeldevelopedaspartofadoctoraldissertation.2Howwouldwaterfortheammoniaproductionprocessbeproduced?

a) Onrigrainwaterharvesting(limitedsupply)?

b) ReverseosmosisdesalinationusingwindenergyorOTEC(page5)?

c) Usingtheirownspeciallydesignedformofgraphene,'Graphair',CSIROscientistshavesuperchargedwaterpurification,makingitsimpler,moreeffectiveandquicker.Thenewfilteringtechniqueissoeffective,watersamplesfromSydneyHarbourweresafetodrinkafterpassingthroughthefilter.CouldGraphairbeproducedfromproposedproductionofHIgraphite-grapheneconsideredinsection6.2.4?

d) Drillingandextractionfromwatertablebelowtheseabedusingexistingoil&gasdrillingequipment?

e) Reversepipeline(ammoniapumpedtoonshorefromrigsforstorage/shippingandwaterpumpedfromonshoretorig?

Theeconomicfeasibilityislikelytobedependentonultra-cheaprenewableenergyand/orincreasingrobotisationofmaterialtransfers,productionandmaintenanceoperations(includingonshorestorage/loadingofammonia-andpossiblyoxygen-toshippingtankersforexport).Increasingrobotisationwouldalsoreduceon-righumandemandsforwaterconsumption.Beyondrenewableenergystorageforexport,couldthesteelcablesstrungbetweenwindturbinemountingsanddisusedoilrigsprovideanidealseaweedgrowingandharvesting(shippingfree)zone?TheDutchenterpriseEcofyshasactivelypursuedtheopportunityoflargescaleoffshorebiomasscultivation,culminatingwiththelaunchofapilottestprojectforseaweedcultivationintheDutchNorthSea.Couldmembersofcroftingfamiliesbetrainedtoperformmaintenanceworksononshoreandoffshorewindturbinesaswellasyear-roundseaweedgrowthtendingandharvesting?Andfromleftfieldcouldoldrigsbedeployedfortheoperationofutilitylevelwindenergygenerationfromwindkites?TheScottishfirmKPShaveextensivelytestedanddevelopedatwin-kitesystemforthispurpose

1Firstpower8SeptemberOctober2017asperthisYouTubevideouploadedbyStatoil.2ATechno-EconomicFeasibilityStudyofAmmoniaPlantsPoweredbyOffshoreWind

16

thatuses85%lessmaterialsthanwindturbinesystems.Leftfield?NotwhenyouconsiderthatitisbackedbyShell,E.ON1andSchlumberger2.6.5.6CollectingandConvertingOceanandSeaBornePlasticWastetoBioenergyNaturetakesmillionsofyearstocreatefossiloil.Licella’sCatalyticHydrothermalReactor(Cat-HTR™)takes20-30minutestocreatearenewablebiocrudeoil.Usingwateratornearsupercriticaltemperatures,theCat-HTR™convertsawidevarietyoflow-cost,wastefeedstocksandresiduesintohigh-valueproducts.TheCat-HTR™platformhasbeenextensivelytested,andconservativelyscaledup,overthepasttenyearstoitscurrentcommercial-readymodule,locatedontheNSWCentralCoast,Australia.Unliketechniquessuchaspyrolysis,hydrothermalupgradingwithLicella’sCat-HTR™platformproducesastablebiocrudewhichcanbeeasilyshipped,isnotacidicandismiscible(blendable)withconventionaloil.LicellaanditspartnerArmstrongareplanningtobuilda20,000tpaterrestrialplantshortlyintheUK.Licella’sChiefScientist,DrBillRowlands,respondedintheaffirmativetoourqueryastowhetheritwouldbepossibletodevelopaportablescaleoperationoftheCat-HTR™platformforoperationonverylargeships(sayaircraftcarriersize)designedtocollectplasticwasteatsea,converttheplastictocrudebiofuel,refinethebiofuelatseaandusethistopowertheshipinacontinuousoperation?Hisresponse:“Yes,itwouldcertainlybepossibletodevelopaunitwithafootprintthatwouldfitonalargeship.Thenon-optimizedfootprintofaunitcapableofprocessing20,000tpaofplasticwouldbearound3500m2,producingabout14,000tpaoffuel.Withalargeshipburningsay,200tonnesperday(myguess)thenitwouldseemfeasibleforsuchashiptobemorethanself-sufficient.”Issuesincustomisingasea-basedplantwouldneedtodealwiththeparticularissuesofsodiumchloridecontaminationoftheplasticrecoveredfromtheocean,theintegrationofthetechnologywiththeships'systemsandthefactthatnearlyhalfthewasteintheplasticgarbagepatchesisnylonfishingnetsasreportedinthisrecentABCScienceNewsarticle.Inrelationtothefirsttwo,BillRowlandsconsideredneitheras“show-stoppersinmyview”.Waterpuritysolutionsincludedistillationofseawaterand/orsubsequentreverseosmosisorapplicationofthe'Graphair'(notedabove)tosuperchargewaterpurification,makingitsimpler,moreeffectiveandquicker,anyofwhichcouldbepoweredbyrefinedbiocrudeproducedonboard.InrelationtoCat-HTR™processingofnylon,DrRowlandsresponded:“Wewouldneedtoinvestigatethefateofthenitrogeninthenylon,ifitisasubstantialcomponentofthemix.Itdependswhatfuelspecificationsareattachedtothefuelsfortheship’senginesandforothercombustionpurposes.Onecanburnprettymuchanythinginaslowstrokediesel,butthatdoesn’tmeanthatanOEMwillwarrantit.”Plannedeffortstocleanuptheoceansofplasticsandfishingnetdebris—TheOceanCleanup(plastics)andtheHealthySeasInitiative(nylon)—involveprocessesofconcentratingtheseabornewasteintodenseclumpsforhaulingonboardthenreturningtoshore(usingpollutingdieselunlessarenewablehydrogentoelectricitypoweredshippingisused)tosortandconvertthewastetovariousproductsincludingdieselandrecyclednylonfibres.NeitheroftheseprocesseswouldappeartobenearlyascosteffectiveastheCat-HTR™solution.However,thetechnologyforwasteconcentrationandhaulingonboardmaybeappropriatetechnologies.Theproposalhereisthatfollowingbenefit-costanalysisbasedonquickandreadyengineeringassessmentsofthefeasibilitythatfundingissoughttobuildaprototype(substantiallyautonomous)shipthatintegratesalltheprocessesforeshadowedintheforegoing.6.5.7PulpandPaperIndustryWastetoBioenergy “TheCat-HTR™processisastrongtechnicalfitforthekraftprocess.TheopportunitytodirectlyproduceadvancedbiofuelsfromourexistingsystemscouldtransitionCanforfrombeingstrictlyapulpandpapermanufacturertoabio-energyproduceraswell.TheLicella™technologyhassignificantsimilaritiestoourexistingprocesseswhichmakethispartnershipanaturalfit.”BrettRobinson,President,CanforPulp.

1E.ONUKisanEnglishenergycompanyandasubsidiaryofE.ON,theworld'slargestinvestor-ownedpowerandgascompany.2SchlumbergerLimitedistheworld'slargestoilfieldservicescompany,employingabout100,000inmorethan85countries.

17

AnopportunityfortheScottishpulpandpaperindustrytoregrowtoitsformerscaleanddosomoreeconomicallyandenvironmentally?6.6 FutureDisruptionofSupply6.6.1IntegrationofRenewableResourcesandInfrastructureOfhighrelevanceistherecentreportfromtheSiemens’IntelligentInfrastructureprogramme:“TheBusinessCaseforSmartCityInfrastructure:Aberdeen”:“Acityseekingtodiversifyitseconomyaroundthefutureofenergydemonstrateshowharboursplayasuchanimportantroleinthateconomicdiversityandhowthiseconomicgeneratorcanplayitspartintheenergyeconomyandtransportsystemsdevelopment.”InconsideringtheChallengesofConstantGrowth,Siemensconsiderthat:

“Digitalizationischangingourworld.Todaythenumberofconnecteddeviceshassurpassedthenumberofhumansontheplanet.Theseintelligentdevicesgeneratemassiveamountsofdatatransforminglifeandbusinessacrossallsectors.However,muchinfrastructurehasyettobetransformedbytheinformationage.Instead,inmostplaces,trains,powersystems,buildings,buses,androadshavehardlychangedinnature.Somedigitalsystemshavebeenincorporatedbutwehaveonlyjustbeguntounlockthepotentialoffullydigitized,electrified,information-enabled,intelligentinfrastructure.Doingsowillbekeytomeetingtheworld’spresentandfuturesustainabledevelopmentchallenges.”

6.6.23DHousinginHighlands&IslandsandDevelopingCountrySisterCommunitiesTheOverviewpaperrefersto3Dprintingofhousesforlessthan$10Kusinglocallyproducedconcreteasdepictedinthisvideoanddescribedinthisarticle.Thenconsidermakingthesehousesautonomouswithalargerflatroofsurfaceservingasawatertanktocatchrainwaterandprovidingadditionaloutdoorlivingspace.Addtothis3Dprintedultra-lowcost,highefficiencysolarpanelsontheflatroofandtheexternalwallscladwithsheetsof3Dprintedsolarcells,usingseaweedextracts.The3Dprintedversionsoftheseroofmountedwindturbines(perhapsadaptingthis3Dprintingprocessforlargeblades)wouldthengeneratemorethansufficientsuppliesofenergyregardlessoftheweather,especiallyifthecostofbatterystoragecontinuestoplummet,possiblywiththisseaweed-basedadvance.Providea5Gserviceandtheoccupantscaninteractatevermoreadvancinglevelsofcommunication/data-sharing/computationwithanygroupsanywhereandeldercitizenoccupantscanbesupportedbyanever-increasingefficacyoftelehealthmonitoringandsupportingdroneservicesConsiderationcouldbegivento3Dprintingofhouses(asconsideredabove)oncroftstohouse:

a) youngfamilymembers;

b) workingvisitors;

c) developingcountrystudents/farmersreceivinganeducation&traininginfarming/crofting/permaculture/afforest,perhapsobtainingtheUniversityoftheHighlandsandIslands(UHI)certificateincrofting;

d) smallcommunitiesofelderlycitizensmovingfromacutehospitalbedstocommunitycareandthetherapyofparticipatinginpermacultureandafforestactivities.

AnotherprospectcouldbeUHIbasedresearchon3Dtoproducedesignsfor3Dhouseprintingmachinery(forcentralbeltmanufacturing)andsoftwaredriversandleveragethisintoasignificantR&D3Dprintingprogram.ThisTedTalkdescribeshowoneyoungwomanfrustratedbyherlackofself-determinationinthehousingmarketcreatedacomputergamethatallowshomebuyerstodesignahouseandhaveitdeliveredtotheminmodularcomponentsthatcanbeassembledon-site.Shereferstothehowtheadvancesin3Dprintingisacceleratingprogresstowardsthisoutcomebymarkedlycuttingcosts,protectingtheenvironmentandhelpingprovidehomesforthoseinneed.Shecallsforawayofmirroringtheprovisionofsuchhousingindevelopedcountrieswithanequivalentbuildinadevelopingcountry.Apossibilityinourcasecouldbetoaskeachdevelopingcountrystudenttousethecomputergametodesigna3Dhouseforamemberorfamilyofherorhiscommunitybackhome.Ifthestudentsinagivencroftingcommunityareallfromthesame“sister”communitybackhomethenintimethatcommunitywillhaveasubstantialqualityhousingstock.Fundingforthisendeavourcouldbesoughtfromtheappropriateinternationaltrainingentities(e.g.UNITARsupportedby

18

UNDP)withNGOsfundedtooperatethe3Dprintingfacilitiesindevelopingcountries.Therapportandrelationshipsbetweenacroftingcommunityandtheirdevelopingcountry“sister”communitycouldleadtomanyopportunitiesandbenefitsforallconcerned.ExtendthisacrossallcroftingcommunitiesandScotlandcouldmakeaprofoundandgloballysignificantdifferenceinthis“tradenotaid”space.6.6.3IntegrationofRenewableResourcesandPurposefulBuiltEnvironmentsTheintegrationofrenewableresourcesinbuildingsisafundamentalaspectofthe21st-centuryarchitectureinordertoachievezeroenergybuildings(ZEB),reducetheconsumptionoffossilenergyandcutcarbonemissionsinurbanareas1.Advancesincludesmallverticalaxisturbinesontheroofsbuildings,betweenbuildingsandinternalcorridorsinbuildings.SolarPVpanelsarealreadywidelyusedandintegratedintobuildingstructures.Increasinglythesameislikelytoapplytotilesonroofsandwallsandeventothecapacityofwindowstocaptureenergy,especiallyifperovskitesgreatlyenhancethecurrentlowefficiencyofcurrentapplications.Ofparticularinterestisaprospectivenano-technologytointegratewindenergycaptureintosolarpanelsreferredtoas“NanoVent-SkinMicro-Turbines”.PerhapsthisdevelopmentpossibilityforGlasgow-basedsmallwindturbinemanufacturerGaia-WindthroughtheirpartnershipwithDanishcompanyVestas,theworld’slargestmanufacturerofwindturbines.TheauthorsrecentlyproducedadiscussionpaperonimprovingthetourisminfrastructureoftheIsleofSkyewhichoutlinedacaseforamultipurposebuildingreferredtoasSkyeIDEA(page34),featuring:amongotherthings,aworld-classclimbingwall;capacitiesforattractingentrepreneursandinnovativeenterprises;abusinessincubationcentre;researchactivitiessupportingEIPinitiatives,inparticularprocessesforreachingagreementonthegovernancearrangementsfortheproposed25xHIsettlementsdrawingonsourcessuchastheHighlandCouncil,theCroftingCommission,theScottishCrofters’FederationandtheInstituteforInnovationandPublicPurpose(IIAPP)2.TheIIAPP’s“ambitiousagendaaimstoinformpublicpolicy;innovationsinpublicservicesincludinghealthandsocialcare;greeninnovationandsustainabledevelopment”.ITisrelevanttothedesignandbuiltenvironmentissuesfacingtheproposed25Windfarms/HIsettlements/EIPsandahighlyinnovativeandenergy-efficientbuildingforSkyeIDEAthattheIIAPPoperatesfromTheBarlett,UniversityCollegeLondon’s“globalfacultyofthebuiltenvironment.”SoalsoistheJeanneGang’spracticeofdesigningrelationshipsoftrustthrougharchitectureinspiredanddrivenbycommunitiesandgovernancepopulatingeachother’sminds.Addtothistherecentstudyonpublicpolicytomaximisewellbeingcreationratherthanwealthcreation,TheOriginsofHappiness:

Whatmakespeoplehappy?Whyshouldgovernmentscareaboutpeople’swell-being?Howwouldpolicychangeifwell-beingwasthemainobjective?TheOriginsofHappinessseekstorevolutionizehowwethinkabouthumanprioritiesandtopromotepublicpolicychangesthatarebasedonwhatreallymatterstopeople.DrawingonauniquelycomprehensiverangeofevidencefromlongitudinaldataonoveronehundredthousandindividualsinBritain,theUnitedStates,Australia,andGermany,theauthorsconsiderthekeyfactorsthataffecthumanwell-being.

Caninstitutionalandownershiparrangementsreducecostsfurtherandleadtoeverimprovingproductivity?Inthisrespect,theIsleofSkyeRenewablesCo-operative(establishedin2007forthepurposeofowningashareintheBenAketilwindfarmlocatednearDunvegan)providesonesuchownershiparrangementworthassessing.ThesameappliestotheLowCarbonHubandtheirrecentlypublishedCommunityEnergyManifestosettingonwhycommunityenergyisavitallyimportantdriveroftheUK’snationalenergytransition.Asaprecursor,theyenvisagethewholeofOxfordshirepoweredbyaninterconnectedseriesofsmartmicro-gridscentredaroundmultiplesmall-scale,community-controlledrenewableenergyschemes.

1SmallVerticalAxisWindTurbinesforEnergyEfficiencyofBuildings,JournalofCleanEnergyTechnologies,Vol.4,No.1,January20162IIAPP’sfoundingdirector,MarianaMazzucato,isProfessorintheEconomicsofInnovationandPublicValue,authorofTheEntrepreneurialState,winnerofthe2018LeontiefEconomicPrize,amemberoftheScottishGovernment’sCouncilofEconomicAdvisors,andamemberoftheWorldEconomicForum’sCouncilontheEconomicsofInnovation.

19

AndthisfromWired:“Microgridsandtheblockchainarepoweringourenergyfuture”.Asthe“belltolls”fortheeraoflarge-scalepowerplantsmanyareheraldingandchampioningtheascensionofgridnetworksofsuper-smartandsuper-cleanenergysystemsembodyingtheriseofmicrogridslinkedtolocalisedpowersources,andoftenreferredtoas“distributedgeneration”sources.Forexample,ahandfulofbuildingsinatownwiththeirownsolarpanelsmightbeconnectedtonearbyresidences.Peoplewiththeirownsolarpanelscansellsurpluselectricitytotheirneighbours:apeer-to-peernetworkforelectricity.DLTisbeingusedtoensurethataccuraterecordsofthesetransactionsaresharedbyeveryoneonthenetwork.Theproductivityboostingprospectsforthisbeingutilisedbymicrogridscontrolledbyeachoftheproposed25xHIcommunitydevelopmentsandtheirattendantEIPswouldbemarkedlyenhancedbythegainsenvisagedforapplicationsoptimisingtheinterconnectivityofthemicrogrids.ConceivablyadvancesinsuchDLT-enablingsoftware(fornotonlytheoptimisationofenergymicrogridsbutalsotheenvisagedmyriadexport-basedproductionactivitieswithinandbetweenHIcommunities)wouldbewithintheprovenanceofresidentsoperatingwithinandbetweenthesecommunities.Astheprospectsandrealitiesfordecentralised(trust-based,well-beingfocussed)communitiesareincreasinglyenhancedworldwide,HIcommunitiesinthevanguardwouldbewellplacedtodeliverSoftware-as-a-Service(SaaS)atasignificantindustrialscaleofeffort.WhynotshepherdSaaSandsheep?_____________________________________________________________________________________