Preliminary Analysis and Classification of Natural Disasters
Prof. S.C. Wirasinghe, PEng (APEGA)
Ms. H.J. Caldera
Ms. S.W. Durage
SCHULICH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
WES 2013
Singapore
September 2013
Outline
• Natural Hazards Vs. Natural Disaster
• Proposed Definitions for Natural Events
• Fatality Based Disaster Scale
• Advantages of the Scale
• Limitations
• Conclusions
Natural Hazards
Natural Disasters
• Natural hazards
– Uncontrollable forces
• Natural disasters
– Consequence of natural hazards interacting with
human activity & infrastructure
– Adversely affects human (& animal) communities
• Human vulnerability
• Different terminology
– No clear sense of scale
– No consistent method
to define events
– The vocabulary, context and the interpretations of
each term is not fixed in the literature
(Kelman; 2008)
• Need consistent scale to describe the disaster
continuum
Background
Objectives
• A scale for disasters
– impacted population; fatalities, affected area,
damaged homes; economic cost
• Multidimensional scale
• A preliminary scale
– Top ten fatality records for a selected set of disasters
Dictionary Emergency Disaster Catastrophe Calamity Cataclysm
Oxford A serious,
unexpected, and
often dangerous
situation requiring
immediate action
A sudden accident or a
natural catastrophe
that causes great
damage or loss of life
An event causing great and
usually sudden damage or
suffering; a disaster
An event causing
great and often
sudden damage or
distress; a disaster
A large-scale and violent
event in the natural world
Merriam-
Webster
An urgent need for
assistance or relief
A sudden calamitous
event bringing great
damage, loss, or
destruction
A violent and sudden
change in a feature of
the earth
A violent usually
destructive natural
event (as a
supernova)
A disastrous event
marked by great loss
and lasting distress
and suffering
Flood, deluge
Catastrophe
Dictionary.r
eference.co
m
A state, especially of
need for
help or relief, created
by some unexpected
event
A calamitous event,
especially one
occurring suddenly and
causing great loss of
life, damage, or
hardship, as a flood,
airplane crash, or
business failure.
A sudden and
widespread disaster
Geology. A sudden,
violent disturbance,
especially of a part of
the surface of the
earth; cataclysm.
A great misfortune or
disaster, as a flood or
serious injury.
Physical
Geography. A
sudden and violent
physical action
producing changes
in the earth's
surface.
An extensive flood;
deluge.
Various Definitions
Dictionary Emergency Disaster Catastrophe Calamity Cataclysm
Glossary
A serious, unexpected, and
often dangerous situation
requiring immediate action.
A sudden event, such as an
accident or a natural
catastrophe, that causes
great damage or loss of life.
An event causing great and
often sudden damage or
suffering
An event causing
great and often sudden
damage or distress; a
disaster.
Disaster and distress
A large-scale and violent
event in the natural world.
Thefreedicti
onary.com
A serious situation or
occurrence that
happens
unexpectedly and
demands immediate
action.
A condition of
urgent need for
action or assistance
An occurrence causing
widespread destruction and
distress; a catastrophe
A great, often sudden
calamity
A sudden violent
change in the earth's
surface; a cataclysm
An event that brings terrible
loss, lasting distress, or
severe affliction; a disaster
A violent upheaval that
causes great destruction
or brings about a
fundamental change.
A violent and sudden
change in the earth's
crust.
A devastating flood.
Wikipedia A situation that poses an
immediate risk to health,
life,
property or environment
A natural or man -made
hazard resulting in an event
of substantial extent causing
significant physical damage
or destruction, loss of life, or
drastic change to the
environment.
An extremely large-scale
disaster, a horrible event.
A disaster, a terrible event Any
catastrophic geological
phenomenon (volcanic
eruption, earthquake),
the result of a sudden
release of energy in the
Earth's crust that creates
seismic waves
More generally any
large-scale disaster
Various Definitions Contd.
Proposed Draft Order & Definitions for Natural Events
• EMERGENCY: A sudden natural event that causes damage, injuries and some
fatalities
• DISASTER: A major natural event that causes significant damage, many
serious injuries and many fatalities
• CATASTROPHE: A large scale natural disturbance that causes severe
destruction, major amount of injuries and extensive fatalities
• CALAMITY: A very large scale natural disturbance that causes widespread
destruction, massive amount of injuries and a great loss of life
• CATACLYSM: An extremely large scale natural upheaval, that causes
widespread devastation, uncountable amount of injuries and unimaginable
loss of life
Severity Levels of a Flood
Emergency
Disaster
CatastropheCalamity
Cataclysm
Disaster Profile
Sub-Sub Type
Sub-TypeMain TypeGroup
Types of disasterNatural disasters
Biological events
Geophysical events
Mass movement dry (triggered by ground
shaking)
AvalancheSnow avalancheDebris avalanche
Rock fall
Landslide
Mudslide
LaharsDebris flow
Subsidence
Sudden subsidence
Long-lasting subsidenceEarthquakes
Ground shakingTsunamis
Volcanoes Volcanic eruption
Meteorological events
Storms
Tropical cyclones/ storms
HurricanesTyphoonsCyclones
Extra tropical cyclones
Winter storms
Local/ Convective storms
Severe/ Generic storms
Thunderstorms/ LightningHailstorms
Snowstorms/ Blizzard
TornadoesSandstorms/ Dust
storms
Orographic storms/ Strong winds
Hydrological events
Floods
General (river) floods
Flash floodsStorm surges/ Coastal floods
Mass movement wet
Rock fallsLandslides Debris flow
AvalanchesSnow avalancheDebris avalanche
SubsidenceSudden subsidence
Long-lasting subsidence
Climatological events
Extraterrestrial events
Meteorite/ Asteroid
Manmade Disasters
Sub- Sub Type
Selected Set of Disasters
• Earthquake
• Flash flood
• Flood
• Forest fire
• Landslide
• Lightning
• Cyclone
• Hurricane
• Tornado
• Meteoroid strike
• Tsunami
• Volcano eruption
Type Fatalities Year Event
Cyclone/ Hurricane 500,000 1970 Bhola cyclone - East Pakistan (now Bangladesh)
Earthquake 830,000 1556 Shaanxi Province, China
Flash Flood 2,200 1889 Dam Failure-Johnstown, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
Flood 2,500,000 1931 Yangtze, Huai and Yellow River- Central China
Forest fire 1,200 1871 Peshtigo Fire - Wisconsin, U.S.A.
Land slide 100,000 1920 Ningxia, China
Lightning 4000 1856 Palace of the Grand Master Explosion-Rhodes, Greece
Meteoroid Not Available
Tornado 1,300 1989 Daulatpur-Salturia Tornado - Manikganj, Bangladesh
Tsunami 230,273 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand
Volcano 92,000 1815 Mount Tambora - Indonesia
Deadliest Events
Factors that Distinguish One Disaster from the Other
• Physical Aspects
• Prediction/Detection
Type Definition Magnitude
Occurrence
(Frequency/No. of
Events)
Flood
An overflow of a large
amount of water beyond its
normal limits, especially
over what is normally dry
land
Peak level of the water
at a particular location in
a waterway
“100-year flood” or “500-
year flood” to convey the
idea of the frequency of
a flood of certain
magnitude
Type
Ability to
Detect and
Track
Mechanism Estimated Time
Flood Can be predicted Using Rainfall intensity measurements,
river flow data and prediction modelsDays
Factors that Distinguish One Disaster from the Other Contd.
• Impacts
• Mitigation Measures
Type Mitigation
FloodFlood Barriers; Structural measures to improve flood safety in housing construction;
Early warning systems; land use restrictions
Type FatalitiesTotal No. of
Affected PeopleArea Destroyed
Economic
Loss
Damage
Extent
Flood
2,500,000-
1931 China
floods
238,973,000-
China P Rep,
General flood-
1998
Thailand: Phichit,
Nakhon Sawan, Phra
Nakhon Si
Ayuttaya, Pathumthani,
Nonthaburi, Bangkok-
Thailand, 2011
Economic
damage cost-
US$ 40,000
million -
Thailand, 2011
City-Region-
Continent
Extreme Value Distribution (EVD)
• EVDs are the limiting distributions for the largest or the smallest of a very large collection of random observations from the same arbitrary distribution
• For example
– Flood frequency analysis : 100 year flood discharge
– Reliability modelling : System failure time
Extreme Value Distribution contd.
• Three related ways of identifying extremes in real data– Block maxima
(X2, X6,X15,X16,X23)
– The largest (rth) order statistics within blocks• 2nd order statistics
(X2,X3,X6,X8,X12,X15,X16,X18,X23,X25)
– Extremes that exceed a high threshold
(X2,X3,X6,X7,X8,X15,X23,X24,X25)
2500000210000017000001300000900000500000100000
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Fatality
Fre
qu
en
cy
Shape 0.4095
Scale 37496
N 97
Weibull Histogram of Fatality
Fatality Based Disaster Classification
• Top 10 fatality records for each disaster type– Mean : 112,135 and standard deviation : 290,807
EVD for Each Type of Disaster
Type of Disaster Extreme Value Distribution
Cyclone/ Hurricane
Earthquake
Flash Flood
Flood
Forest fire
Land slide
Lightning
Meteoroid
Tornado Frechet (α=1.14213, µ=0, σ=2.01878) = exp {- (x/2.01878)-1.14213}
Tsunami
Volcano Frechet (α=0.440009, µ=0, σ=8.96027) = exp {- (x/8.96027)-0.440009}
Extreme Tornado Outbreaks for United States
Fatality Based Disaster Scale• µ ~ 100,000 and σ~ 300,000
• Lowest limit of fatality(F) = μ-0.33333σ = 1
Type Fatality Range Example
Emergency µ-0.33333σ ≤ F < µ-0.3333σ 1 ≤ F < 10 A small landslide that kills one person
Disaster Type 1 µ-0.3333σ ≤ F < µ-0.333σ 10 ≤ F < 100Edmonton tornado, Canada -1987 that
killed 27 people
Disaster Type 2 µ-0.333σ ≤ F < µ-0.33σ 100 ≤ F < 1,000Thailand flood-2011 that resulted in a total
of 815 deaths
Catastrophe Type 1 µ-0.33σ ≤ F < µ-0.3σ 1,000 ≤ F < 10,000Hurricane Katrina-2005, U.S.A that killed
1833 people
Catastrophe Type 2 µ-0.3σ ≤ F < µ 10,000 ≤ F < 100,000Tohuku earthquake and tsunami-2011,
Japan that killed 15882 people
Calamity Type 1 µ ≤ F < µ+3σ 100,000 ≤ F < 1,000,000Haiti earthquake 2010 killed 316,000
people
Calamity Type 2 µ+3σ ≤ F < µ+33σ 1,000,000 ≤ F < 10M China floods-1931 death toll >2,500,000
Cataclysm Type 1 µ+33σ ≤ F < µ+333σ 10M ≤ F < 100M -
Cataclysm Type 2 µ+333σ ≤ F < µ+3333σ 100M ≤ F < 1BSuper Volcano (e.g. Yellowstone)
Estimated deaths <1B
Partial or Full
Extinctionµ+33333σ ≤ F < µ+33333σ 1B ≤ F < 10B
•Meteor strike (diameter > 1.5 Km) -
estimated deaths :<1.5*109
•Pandemic (Avian influenza) – estimated
deaths : <2.8B
TypeFlash Flood
Forest Fire
Lightning Tornado Volcano Land slide
Cyclone/ Hurricane
Earthquake Tsunami FloodMeteoroid
ImpactEmergency √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Disaster Type 1 √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √Disaster Type 2 √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Catastrophe Type 1
√ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Catastrophe Type 2
× × × × √ √ √ √ √ √
Calamity Type 1 × × × × × √ √ √ √ √Calamity Type 2 × × × × × × × × × √
Cataclysm Type 1
× × × × × × × × × ×
Cataclysm Type 2
× × × × × × × × × ×
Partial or
Full
Extinction
× × × × × × × × × ×
Disaster Classification• Meteoroid impact
– Does not have fatalities in recorded history
– Has the potential to vary (emergency - cataclysm level)
Disaster Classification Contd.
Volcano
Type Event
EmergencyGaleras Volcano : Colombia
(1993) - 9 deaths
Disaster
Type 1
Mt. St. Helens Volcano :
United States (1980) -
57 deaths
Disaster
Type 2
Pinatuba Volcano :
Philippines (1991) -
800 deaths
Catastrophe
Type 1
Laki Volcano : Iceland
(1783) - 9,350 deaths
Catastrophe
Type 2
Mount Tambora Volcano :
Indonesia (1815) -
92,000 deaths
TornadoType Event (Tornado Outbreaks)
EmergencySaroma, Hokkaidō Tornado :
Japan (2006) - 9 deaths
Disaster
Type 1
Marshfield MO Tornado : USA
(1930) - 99 deaths
Disaster
Type 2
Bangladesh Tornado :
Bangladesh (1969) -
923 deaths
Catastrophe
Type 1
Daulatpur - Salturia Tornado :
Manikganj, Bangladesh
(1989) - 1,300 deaths
Advantages of the Scale
• Overall place of each type of disaster
• Easy to recognize an event occurrence and
enter it into a database
• Good foundation to develop an advanced
scale to classify disaster occurrences
worldwide
Limitations
– Twin or more disasters
– Armageddon events
(Asteroids; Large Meteors; Super Volcanoes)
– Winter disaster events
– Slow-moving disasters
– Population increase & economic expansion
Conclusion
• Initial step of scale development process
• Multidimensional scale to understand the
disaster continuum
– All types of disasters at different levels
– Various parameters
Example:
Event magnitude, number of fatalities, affected
population and impact area
Thank You!
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