Overview of 1366-2001 Overview of 1366-2001 Full Use Guide on Electric Power Full Use Guide on Electric Power
Distribution Reliability IndicesDistribution Reliability Indices
Panel Session – How to Define Major EventsJuly 22, 2002
Presented by Cheryl A. Warren
7/22/2002
2
Foundations of the DefinitionFoundations of the Definition
• Purpose is to partition the data into normal and abnormal days.
• Rigorously analyze and report on abnormal events above and beyond the normal process.
• Use normal events for trending, internal goal setting, and Commission mandated targets.
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Foundations of the DefinitionFoundations of the Definition
• Definition must be understandable by all and easy to apply.Executives and Commissioners must be able to
understand and feel comfortable with the approach.
• Definition must be specific and calculated using the same process for all utilities.
• Must be fair to all utilities.Large and small, urban and rural….
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Foundations of the DefinitionFoundations of the Definition
• Definition must be extensible.The approach must address varying levels
of data collection.Some utilities have little reliability data. Others
have been collecting it with flawed system. Others have very sophisticated systems that track interruptions to the customer level.
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Process To DateProcess To Date
• Members agreed that the current definition should be reevaluated.
• A subgroup was formed to further analyze approaches. Jim Bouford , Rich Christie, Dan Kowaleski, John
McDaniel, Dave Schepers, Cheri Warren, Charlie Williams & Joe Viglietta
• Members discussed the options and performed analysis using real data.
• This panel session will share some of the background behind the current thinking.
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SummarySummary
• The assembled panel will describe the proposed methodology, why one is needed, and potential benefits of the proposed
approach.
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PresentersPresenters
• Rich Christie University of Washington
• Charlie Williams Florida Power Corp A Progress Energy Company
• Dan Kowalewski Exelon – ComEd
• Dave Schepers Ameren Energy
• Jim Bouford National Grid
Major Reliability EventsMajor Reliability EventsSelf - Defining?Self - Defining?
Charlie Williams, P.E.Florida Power
Senior Member IEEE
7/22/2002
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Major Event DefinitionsMajor Event Definitions
• P1366 (old)- 10% of customers in a 24 hour period
• Regulatory Agencies - Severe Storms (Hurricane, Ice Storm, Tornado, Other)
• P1366 (new) - statistical outlier definition
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Other Major Event possibilitiesOther Major Event possibilities
• Severe Lightning Storm
• Earthquake
• Dust Storm
• Other??????
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Reliability AccountabilityReliability Accountability
• Some events are severe - power systems cannot be reasonably or economically designed to withstand them.
• What kind of events should the utility design consider?
• With PBR these issues take on a potential economic impact to the utility and shareholders as well as rate payers.
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Suncoast Lightning StormSuncoast Lightning Storm
• Major Event not defined as severe.
• No definition of severe lightning by NWS
• Lightning data shows it as a “once in 10 year event”.
• Outside help required to assist with restoration
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Suncoast Average Daily Flash Count - July
399 25836
338 339 242 148354 166 367
5813
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 36722
Year
Avg
DA
ily
Fla
sh C
ou
nt
(Ju
ly) Ten year daily average July flashes =
2657/15/00 = 22 times greater than ten year average
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Suncoast RegionWorst Outage Days
219238
217
166
111
177162
216
260
159
422
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 36722
Year
Max
imu
m D
aily
Ou
tag
e C
ou
nt
Average Worst Outage Day (all months) = 1927/15/00 = 2.2 times greater than annual average worst day
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Suncoast Daily Regional SAIDI
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
01/0
1/93
05/0
1/93
09/0
1/93
01/0
1/94
05/0
1/94
09/0
1/94
01/0
1/95
05/0
1/95
09/0
1/95
01/0
1/96
05/0
1/96
09/0
1/96
01/0
1/97
05/0
1/97
09/0
1/97
01/0
1/98
05/0
1/98
09/0
1/98
01/0
1/99
05/0
1/99
09/0
1/99
01/0
1/00
05/0
1/00
09/0
1/00
01/0
1/01
05/0
1/01
09/0
1/01
Date
SA
IDI
Suncoast StormSAIDI = 7.1
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Self Defining?Self Defining?
• Outage and Reliability statistics clearly show this event as an “outlier”
• Customer Expectations ???????
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New Major Event DefinitionNew Major Event Definition
• Statistical process to establish “normal” reliability parameters for daily outage statistics based on historical data
• Establish limits for major events
• Review these limits annually
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Statistical Analysis of Reliability Data
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Severe vs Non-Severe WeatherSuncoast Region
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
# Daily Outages
Dai
ly C
MI
NON-SEVERE
Severe
Suncoast Storm 7/15/2000
3/13/93
3/14/93
9/17/2000
4/25/91
Comparison of Event Definition vs. Statistical Definition
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ConclusionConclusion
• Statistical Definition is definitive and non-ambiguous
• Leaves little room for debate on major events.
• Only excludes events that are of significant impact to the system.
IEEE IEEE Power Engineering Society Power Engineering Society
Summer MeetingSummer Meeting
Reliability Surveying Criteria
David J. Schepers, IEEE MemberManager, Distribution Operating
Ameren - St. Louis, MO
7/22/2002
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Why New Survey Criteria?Why New Survey Criteria?
• Desire to BenchmarkUtility CompaniesRegulators
• Performance-Based Rates
• Continuous Improvement - Determine what makes a Difference
• Need for comparative statistics
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Problems with Current SurveysProblems with Current Surveys
• No Company Identification
• Issues of Data Accuracy What’s Included/Excluded Storms
• Diverse Companies Geography Data Collection Capabilities SCADA/DA Implementation AMR Outage Reporting
• Lack of Common Reporting Standards
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Major Event Definition ProblemMajor Event Definition Problem
• Storm-excluded indices are most valuable for benchmarking
• Current published IEEE definition vagueApplied by 50% of respondents using 10%
customers out, some >24 hours in a region (what’s a region?)
• Need a definition that puts everyone on a common standard
• IEEE Working Group on System Designs new definition - Major Events
7/22/2002
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The OMS And ConnectivityThe OMS And Connectivity
• Automated vs. Manual OMS• Extent Of Connectivity
Customer to transformerTransformer to protective deviceProtective device to upstream protective deviceProtective device to substation breakerBreaker to bus
• How many customers are really out?
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AMR Outage ReportingAMR Outage Reporting
• Accurate maintenance outage records
• Supplement phone calls for more accurate outage recordsNumber of customers affectedOutage start time
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Outage DefinitionOutage Definition
• Sustained vs. momentaryTime definition (IEEE 1366: >5 minutes)Human intervention
• ExclusionsMaintenance outagesPublic-caused outagesDifferent definitions by cause by utility
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DA/ScadaDA/Scada
• Affects CAIDI/SAIDI
• Opportunity to change sustained interruptions into momentary (SAIFI/MAIFI)
• Knowing the extent of implementation allows for better comparison
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System GeographySystem Geography
• Urban/Suburban/Rural
• Network vs. radial
• Urban radial (many feeder ties) vs. rural radial (few feeder ties)
• Circuit length issues
• Customer density
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New Questions In EEI SurveyNew Questions In EEI Survey
• Do you have an automated OMS with Full Connectivity?
• Percentage of Customers with AMR Outage Reporting• Percentage of Customers served by SCADA
Substations• Percentage of Customers on Distribution Circuits with
Automated Switching• Urban/Suburban/Rural Geography• Does your OMS have Partial Restoration Capability?• Will your utility identify itself for others willing to do
likewise?
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What to Report to EEIWhat to Report to EEI
• Standard IEEE Indices SAIFI, CAIDI, SAIDI, MAIFI
• Percentage of Interruptions and Hours by Cause, by System Location
• Actual & Normalized for Major Events
• Percentage of Customers with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or more Normalized Interruptions (CEMI)
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Data and Indices DefinitionsData and Indices Definitions
• Use IEEE 1366 Definitions for Standard Indices
• Sustained Interruptions >5 minutes
• No outage types excluded other than Customer Outage caused by Customer Equipment
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SummarySummary
• Need exists for benchmarking for utilities and regulators alike
• Current surveys do not allow for accurate comparisons
• More segmentation is needed and possible
• EEI Reliability Survey is moving in this direction today
The Need to Segment The Need to Segment (Exclude) Abnormal Events (Exclude) Abnormal Events
from the Calculation of from the Calculation of Reliability IndicesReliability Indices
Presented by Jim Bouford National Grid
7/22/2002
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I. Reasons for Measuring ReliabilityI. Reasons for Measuring Reliability
• Identification of Problems
• Allocation of Resources
• Accepted Measure of Customer Service
• Performance Based Ratemaking
• Comparison with Other Utilities
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II. Requirements of MeasurementsII. Requirements of Measurements
• ComparableYear-to-Year ( Trends )Utility-to-Utility ( Regulatory )
• Universally Applicable
• Correlates Output to Input
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III. Design and Operation RealitiesIII. Design and Operation Realities
• Systems are NOT built to withstand all contingencies
• Workforce levels are set to handle routine activities
• Systems are designed and operated to deal with a defined level of adverse occurrences
• Abnormal occurrences stress the design and/or the operation of the system and Require Abnormal Operational Response
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IV. Simple TruthsIV. Simple Truths
• Expected Occurrences only Require Normal Response
• Abnormal Occurrences Require Abnormal Response
• Abnormal Occurrences Will Distort the Measures; Requirements of Measurement Will Not be Met
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V.V. What To Do What To Do
• Separate Abnormal from Normal Occurrences
• Review the Response to the Abnormal Occurrence
• Use Normal Occurrences for Measurements