ISFHAN
Equity Research | Indonesia
12 August 2019
Morning Call
Market PULSE Research Team
(+62 21) 2970 9430
Key Indonesia Indices
Close Chg % Chg
JCI 6,282 7.5 0.1
Agricultural 1,374 22.6 1.7
Mining 1,628 21.9 1.4
Basic Industry 834 4.9 0.6
Misc Industry 1,210 -17.7 -1.4
Consumer 2,358 -0.3 0.0
Property 483 -0.4 -0.1
Infrastructure 1,197 -1.8 -0.2
Finance 1,283 3.1 0.2
Trade & Svc 801 -0.6 -0.1
Manufacturing 1,496 -1.0 -0.1
Latest Previous Vol (b) 10.5 11.2
Value (IDR t) 5.6 0.2
Top % gainers Close % Chg
INCO 3,250 4.5
ANTM 1,065 4.4
JPFA 1,610 2.9
Top % losers Close % Chg
SCMA 1,285 -3.4
BBNI 7,925 -2.5
ASII 6,775 -1.8
Most active Close % Chg
TLKM 4,210 0.0
BBRI 4,290 0.9
BBCA 30,025 -0.1
Market Data Latest % Chg
IDR/USD 14,223 -0.2 Dow Jones Index
26,287 -0.3 S&P 500
2,919 -0.7 Oil Price (USD/bbl)
54 -0.7 Gold Price (USD/oz)
1,497 0.3 Coal Price (USD/mt)
68 0.1 CPO Price(MYR/mt) 2,141 3.3
Economic Statistics Latest *Previous
GDP growth YoY (%) 5.05 5.07
CPI inflation (%) 3.32 3.28
7-day Reverse Repo rate (%) 5.75 6.00
*Previous month for CPI & 7-day Reverse Repo rate, quarter for GDP
OCBC Sekuritas
Key Ideas
Trade: Indonesia plans higher dairy tariff to retaliate EU
Nickel: Indonesia’s president seeks input on early nickel ore export ban
Stocks to Watch
TPMA IJ: Co struggles to handle coal transport demand
AALI IJ: Co prepares US$ 100 million standby loan in anticipating CPO prices
NISP IJ: Co records 2% loan growth in 1H19
BBRI IJ: Co cuts loan interest rate by 50 bps
Daily Chart Views
JCI Index – Fall: Potential correction as last price still below
near term resistance (R: 6,300 | S: 6,210)
LSIP – Trading buy: Continue to rise supported by the forming
of Two White candle pattern and increase in volume ( R:1,220 | S:1,125 – Entry:1,160-1,175)
BNGA – Trading buy: Continue to rise supported by the
forming of White candle pattern and increase in volume ( R:1,130 | S:1,050 – Entry:1,065-1,085)
WTON – Spec buy: Potential technical rebound though
forming Black candle pattern but decrease in volume ( R:570 | S:500 – Entry:515-525)
ASII – Buy on Weakness: Potential to fall supported by the
forming of Tweezer Top pattern ( R:7,000 | S:6,425 – Entry:6,500-6,625)
HMSP – Spec buy: Potential technical rebound though forming
of Black Marabozu but decrease in volume ( R:2,980 | S:2,830 – Entry:2,850-2,870)
Sources: PTOS,IDNfinancials, Bloomberg and other sources
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Market Snapshot
Global Market: Shares in Asia traded lower Monday morning following a volatile week for global markets last week as growing trade war fears dented investor sentiment. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4% in early trade, South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.12%. Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged down 0.18%. Markets in Japan, India and Singapore are closed for public holidays. Trump told reporters on Friday the U.S. is not ready to strike a trade deal with China. “China wants to do something, but I’m not doing anything yet,” Trump said. “Twenty-five years of abuse. I’m not ready so fast.” Both sides are set to resume trade negotiations in Washington in early September. At the same time, a new 10% tariff on additional $300 billion worth of Chinese goods are due to go into effect beginning Sept. 1. All eyes continue to be on the yuan, with Beijing fixing the yuan weaker than the psychologically important level of 7 per dollar last week with the imminent new tariffs. The offshore yuan traded at 7.1016 against the dollar on Monday morning. The U.S. dollar traded at 97.507 against a basket of its peers Monday morning, after coming off levels near 98.00 at the start of the previous week. Oil prices traded down, with U.S. crude off 0.51% to $54.23 a barrel and global benchmark Brent down 0.53% to $58.23. Last week, energy prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday supported by a drop in European inventories and OPEC output cuts. That followed even as the International Energy Agency reported demand growth was at its lowest since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Source: CNBC
News Headlines
Indonesia plans higher dairy tariff to retaliate EU
Trade Ministry is seeking to raise the duty for dairy products to the same level of EU’s palm biodiesel import tariff of 8%-18%, but it’s also open to raise further to 20%-25%, according to a top official.The policy meant as retaliation over EU’s plan on palm diesel import tariff which affects Indonesia among others, Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita tells reporters in Jakarta on Friday.Indonesia may need to look for other dairy product suppliers, such as Australia, New Zealand, U.S. or India.“EU can impose something to us as long as the parameter is fair, but if the parameter is not fair, then that is an act of protectionism and trade war. We can’t just be quiet when there is unfairness,” says Lukita. Source:Bloomberg
Indonesia’s president seeks input on early nickel ore export ban
President Joko Widodo is asking suggestions from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry on the possibility of early nickel ore export ban, according to a top official.The plan requires thoughtful consideration as it will hurt exports, Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita tells reporters in Jakarta on Friday. Source:Bloomberg
Trans Power struggles to handle coal transport demand
PT Trans Power Marine Tbk (TPMA) admits that it has been struggling to handle the ever-rising coal transport demand.“We had to rent vessels because our utilisation had reached 100%,” TPMA Finance Director and Corporate Secretary Rudi Sutiono told Kontan.co.id, Thursday (8/8).Currently, the company’s fleet consists of 35 tugboat and barge sets as well as three crane barges. High demand has forced the company to lease four to five tugboat and barge sets.Thus, TPMA plans to acquire one new tugboat and barge set as a strategy to increase the company’s net profit. “Leasing means we have to pay rents and causes our profit margin to drop,” said Mr Sutiono. Source:IDNfinancial&Kontan
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Astra Agro prepares US$ 100 million standby loan in anticipating CPO prices
To anticipate the company's performance due to declining crude palm oil prices, PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) has pocketed a standby loan worth US$ 100 million or equivalent to Rp 1.43 trillion.Astra Agro Lestari's President Director, Santosa said that the funding process was almost complete. "Almost closing, the value is US$ 100 million," Santosa said as quoted by CNBC Indonesia.The loan has a tenor of five years. In 2019, the company will allocate capital expenditure of Rp 1.5 trillion. Source:IDNfinancial&CNBC Indonesia.
Bank OCBC NISP records 2% loan growth in 1H19
PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk (NISP) recorded loan growth of 2% year on year (yoy) in the first semester of 2019. NISP President Director Parwati Surjaudaja said that the loan realisation is the lowest during her 29-year career in the bank. According to Ms Surjaudaja, the slowdown was caused by fluctuating macroeconomic conditions both domestically and overseas in the first six months of the year. Nonetheless, the company remains optimistic that it can achieve this year’s loan growth target of 10%.As reported by Kontan.co.id, due to the loan growth NISP’s net interest income (NII) only grew 2% yoy to Rp 3.21 trillion, while its net interest margin (NIM) ratio was corrected 0.2% to 4% yoy. Source:IDNfinancial&Kontan
BBRI cuts loan interest rate by 50 bps
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) or BRI has lowered its loan interest rate for micro, retail, and consumer segments by 50 basis points (bps) as a response to Bank Indonesia’s (BI) policy of slashing rates by 25 bps.BRI CEO Suprajarto said that lower loan interest rate is expected to boost the company’s loan growth in the micro and retail segments.“In addition to loan digitisation to accelerate loan services, BRI is also adjusting rates so that we can have more room for higher loan growth with a quick loan process and affordable rates,” said Mr Suprajarto in an official statement, Thursday (8/8). Source:IDNfinancial
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Technical Analysis | Indonesia
Daily Chart Views Liga Maradona ● (62) 21-2970 9431 ● [email protected]
Monday
12 August 2019
Summary for today:
JCI Fall Potential correction as last price still below near term resistance
LSIP Trading
buy Continue to rise supported by the forming of Two White candle pattern and increase in volume
BNGA Trading
buy Continue to rise supported by the forming of White candle pattern and increase in volume
WTON Spec
buy Potential technical rebound though forming Black candle pattern but decrease in volume
ASII BOW Potential to fall supported by the forming of Tweezer Top pattern
HMSP Spec
buy Potential technical rebound though forming of Black Marabozu but decrease in volume
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) Gc = Golden-cross Pos = Positive Dc = Dead-cross Neg = Negative
Up = Up Ob = Overbought Dn = Down Os = Oversold
Nt = Neutral
Source: Bloomberg
Recomendation Fall
Resistance 6,315
Support 6,240
Close 6,282
Indicator MACD Dn
W%R Nt
Histogram Neg
Mov Avg Nt
OCBC Sekuritas
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London Sumatera Indonesia (LSIP)
Gc = Golden-cross Pos = Positive Dc = Dead-cross Neg = Negative
Up = Up Ob = Overbought Dn = Down Os = Oversold
Nt = Neutral
Source: Bloomberg
Bank CIMB Niaga (BNGA)
Gc = Golden-cross Pos = Positive Dc = Dead-cross Neg = Negative
Up = Up Ob = Overbought Dn = Down Os = Oversold
Nt = Neutral
Source: Bloomberg
Recommendation Trading buy
Resistance 1,220
Support 1,125
Entry 1,160-1,175
Indicator MACD Dn
W%R Ob
Histogram Pos
Mov Avg Dn
Recommendation Trading buy
Resistance 1,130
Support 1,050
Entry 1,065-1,085
Indicator MACD Dn
W%R Nt
Histogram Neg
Mov Avg Nt
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Wijaya Karya Beton (WTON)
Source: Bloomberg
Astra International (ASII)
Source: Bloomberg
Recommendation Spec buy
Resistance 570
Support1 500
Entry 515-525
Indicator MACD Dn
W%R Nt
Histogram Neg
Mov Avg Nt
Recommendation BOW
Resistance 7,000
Support 6,425
Entry 6,500-6,625
Indicator MACD Dn
W%R Os
Histogram Neg
Mov Avg Dn
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Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna (HMSP)
ws Dc = Dead-cross Neg = Negative
Up = Up Ob = Overbought Dn = Down Os = Oversold Nt = Neutral
Source: Bloomberg
Recomendation Spec buy
Resistance 2,980
Support 2,830
Entry 2,850-2,870
Indicator MACD Dn
W%R Nt
Histogram Pos
Mov Avg Dn
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S 2 S 1 R 1 R 2
Sho rt-
T erm
M id-
T erm
Lo ng-
T erm
JCI 5,642 7,228 6,282 6,237 6,272 6,310 6,354 Bearish Bearish Bullish
H o ldings
INDF 100 66 7,475 7,163 7,400 7,575 7,763 Bullish Bullish Bearish
ASII 255 274 6,775 6,550 6,750 6,925 7,150 Bearish Bearish Bearish
B anks
BBCA 565 748 30,325 29,919 30,138 30,463 30,819 Bearish Bullish Bullish
BBNI 223 148 7,925 7,669 7,913 8,163 8,419 Bearish Bearish Bullish
BBRI 609 534 4,330 4,228 4,305 4,355 4,428 Bearish Bullish Bullish
BBTN 38 25 2,330 2,240 2,310 2,350 2,420 Bearish Bullish Bearish
BDM N 28 49 5,000 4,720 4,900 5,030 5,230 Bullish Bearish Bearish
BJBR 15 15 1,530 1,461 1,523 1,588 1,651 Bearish Bearish Bearish
BM RI 381 348 7,450 7,263 7,425 7,525 7,713 Bearish Bullish Bullish
C o nstruct io ns
ADHI 10 5 1,410 1,351 1,398 1,433 1,481 Bearish Bearish Bullish
PTPP 50 12 1,885 1,814 1,873 1,928 1,984 Bearish Bearish Bullish
WIKA 52 21 2,310 2,235 2,280 2,320 2,375 Bullish Bullish Bullish
WSKT 71 24 1,780 1,719 1,768 1,813 1,869 Bearish Bullish Bullish
C o al M ining
ADRO 61 35 1,095 1,049 1,088 1,113 1,159 Bearish Bearish Bearish
INDY 8 7 1,395 1,318 1,380 1,415 1,488 Bearish Bearish Bearish
ITM G 21 17 15,050 14,638 15,025 15,525 15,888 Bearish Bearish Bearish
PTBA 53 29 2,540 2,405 2,500 2,610 2,725 Bearish Bearish Bearish
C o nsumers
GGRM 100 142 73,625 72,263 73,225 74,700 75,463 Bearish Bearish Bearish
HM SP 147 337 2,900 2,740 2,900 2,970 3,130 Bearish Bearish Bearish
ICBP 84 132 11,300 11,006 11,213 11,363 11,556 Bullish Bullish Bullish
KLBF 46 68 1,440 1,375 1,420 1,450 1,495 Bearish Bearish Bearish
UNVR 107 342 44,825 44,569 44,788 45,013 45,269 Bullish Bearish Bullish
P lantat io ns
AALI 17 20 10,550 9,931 10,263 10,663 10,981 Bullish Bearish Bearish
LSIP 21 8 1,185 1,054 1,118 1,188 1,254 Bullish Bearish Bearish
P o ultry
CPIN 60 80 4,900 4,736 4,848 5,023 5,186 Bearish Bearish Bearish
JPFA 38 19 1,610 1,496 1,568 1,613 1,686 Bullish Bearish Bearish
Infrastructure
INTP 45 80 21,800 21,225 21,550 21,975 22,325 Bearish Bullish Bullish
SM GR 76 76 12,800 12,463 12,700 12,950 13,213 Bullish Bearish Bullish
UNTR 124 86 23,175 22,731 23,038 23,438 23,781 Bearish Bullish Bearish
AKRA 29 15 3,830 3,683 3,775 3,845 3,923 Bearish Bearish Bearish
JSM R 25 42 5,725 5,619 5,688 5,738 5,819 Bearish Bullish Bullish
M etal M ining
ANTM 261 26 1,065 963 1,015 1,080 1,133 Bullish Bearish Bullish
INCO 86 32 3,250 2,985 3,130 3,290 3,405 Bullish Bearish Bearish
TINS 29 7 995 949 988 1,018 1,049 Bearish Bearish Bullish
Oil and Gas
ELSA 6 2 338 327 335 343 353 Bearish Bearish Bullish
M EDC 10 14 810 753 795 830 863 Bearish Bearish Bearish
PGAS 61 48 1,985 1,901 1,953 2,008 2,071 Bullish Bearish Bearish
P ro perty
ASRI 3 6 312 298 309 325 340 Bearish Bullish Bullish
BKSL 25 8 138 130 137 142 150 Bearish Bullish Bullish
BSDE 17 26 1,370 1,308 1,360 1,410 1,468 Bullish Bullish Bullish
CTRA 41 23 1,225 1,169 1,208 1,238 1,269 Bearish Bullish Bullish
LPKR 35 19 262 250 257 265 276 Bearish Bullish Bullish
SM RA 29 18 1,260 1,176 1,228 1,283 1,326 Bullish Bullish Bullish
R etail
LPPF 27 9 3,270 3,053 3,225 3,345 3,543 Bearish Bearish Bearish
M API 9 17 1,000 920 965 1,035 1,100 Bullish Bearish Bullish
RALS 9 9 1,310 1,228 1,275 1,320 1,378 Bullish Bearish Bullish
T eleco mmunicat io n
EXCL 47 35 3,310 3,143 3,275 3,425 3,543 Bullish Bullish Bullish
TLKM 429 422 4,260 4,165 4,250 4,310 4,385 Bullish Bullish Bullish
Suppo rtLast
P rice
R esistance Indicato rsM arket
C ap
D aily
T urno ver
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SHAREHOLDING DECLARATION: The analyst/analysts who wrote this report holds/hold NIL shares in the above security. DISCLAIMER FOR RESEARCH REPORT This report is solely for information and general circulation only and may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without our written consent. This report should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the securities mentioned herein. Whilst we have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness, and you should not act on it without first independently verifying its contents. Any opinion or estimate contained in this report is subject to change without notice. We have not given any consideration to and we have not made any investigation of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient or any class of persons, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the recipient or any class of persons acting on such information or opinion or estimate. You may wish to seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the securities mentioned herein, taking into consideration your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in the securities. PT OCBC Sekuritas and their respective connected and associated corporations together with their respective directors and officers may have or take positions in the securities mentioned in this report and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other investment or securities related services for the corporations whose securities are mentioned in this report as well as other parties generally. The information provided herein may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or future performance of countries, assets, markets or companies. Actual events or results may differ materially. Past performance figures are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Privileged / confidential information may be contained in this document. If you are not the addressee indicated in this document (or responsible for delivery of this message to such person), you may not copy or deliver this message to anyone. Opinions, conclusions and other information in this document that do not relate to the official business of PT OCBC Sekuritas and their respective connected and associated corporations shall be understood as neither given nor endorsed. RATINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: - OCBC Sekuritas Research’s technical comments and recommendations are short-term and trading oriented. - OCBC Sekuritas Research’s fundamental views and ratings (Buy, Hold, Sell) are medium-term calls within a 12-month investment horizon. - As a guide, OCBC Sekuritas Research’s BUY rating indicates a total return in excess of 10% based on the current price; a HOLD rating indicates total returns within +10% and -5%; a SELL rating indicates total returns less than -5%.
Isfhan Helmy Head of Research
Published by PT OCBC Sekuritas Indonesia