Models of Wikipedia Dynamics
Ed H. Chi(joint work with
Bongwon Suh, Gregorio Convertino, Peter Pirolli)
Area ManagerAugmented Social Cognition Area
Intelligent Systems Laboratory
Total Edits Changes
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Total Active Editors
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Logistic Model (k=carrying capacity)
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A hypothetical logistic Lotka-Volterra population growth model bounded by a limit K.
P = population sizer = growth rateK = carrying capacity
Logistic Growth Model
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A Revised Logistic Growth Model
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Deeper Analysis based on Editor Classes
Edit Activities by Editor Class
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Edit Activities by Editor Class
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Resistance (Revert Ratio)
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Population shift
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Population Shifts (log scale)
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Population Shift (%)
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Admin Changes and Protection Measures
Admin changes
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User Blocks
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Page Protection
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Pages Survived vs. Deleted (in thousands)
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Key takeaways• Wikipedia can be viewed as an in-vivo,
unprecedented experiment on knowledge co-creation.
• Editing activity changing– Moved from exponential growth to logistic growth
• Population dynamic changing– Revert resistance different for lower class editors– Middle class being squeezed– Pyramid structure important?
• Protection measures correlate with activity
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