Modeling and visualization softwarefor the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere
T. Egorova*, N. Hochmuth***, E. Rozanov*,**, A.V. Shapiro*,**, A.I. Shapiro*, and W. Schmutz*
*PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** IAC ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland
*** Institut für 4D-Technologien Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland
Goals of the project
• Find out how well we understand the solar irradiance influence on the middle atmosphere;
• Learn how to manage near-real-time operation and visualization;
• At the moment Space Weather Service is a secondary goal but may become interesting
Nowcast of neutral and ion composition in the mesosphere based
on solar irradiance measurements
6-Hourly Data fromobservations by LYRA, PREMOS
orReconstructions
6-Hourly Data fromobservations by LYRA, PREMOS
orReconstructions
Preparation of the entireSpectral solar irradiancePreparation of the entireSpectral solar irradiance
Simulations of the neutraland charged species
with free running CICM SOCOLi
Simulations of the neutraland charged species
with free running CICM SOCOLi
Nowcasting results available on web
every 6 hours
Nowcasting results available on web
every 6 hoursOutput validation to improve the model
Output validation to improve the model
Egorova et al. 2005; Schraner et al. 2008; Egorova et al. 2010
CTM:Model for Evaluation of oZONe trends
Rozanov et al. 1999, 2001Egorova et al. 2001, 2003
t = 15 min for dynamicst = 2 h for radiation horizontal resolution: T30 (3.75°) vertical resolution: 39 levels to 0.01 hPa
MEZON
MA-ECHAM4
GCM:Middle Atmosphere version of the European Center/Hamburg Model 4
Manzini and McFarlane, 1998t = 2 h for radiation and chemistry 41 chemical species Electrons, 17 negative ions 31
positive ions Reactions: 118 gas-phase,
33 photolysis, 16 het, 500 ionic GCM-CTM coupling by O3 , H2O, CH4,
N2O, CFCs
Chemistry-Ionosphere Climate model SOCOLi
CCM SOCOLCCM SOCOLi i outputoutput
Mixing ratio of the neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density
for the 6 hour period after the last LYRA measurement
and their statistical properties
Mixing ratio of the neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density
for the 6 hour period after the last LYRA measurement
and their statistical properties
Charged components:Charged components:
OO+,+, O O22++, O, O44
++, N, N++, NO, NO++, N, N22++, H, H22OO22
++, H, H33OO++,O,O22++∙N∙N22, O, O22
++∙H∙H22O, HO, H33OO++∙OH, NO∙OH, NO++∙H∙H22O, NOO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)33, ,
NONO++∙CO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙N∙N22, NO, NO++∙H∙H22O∙COO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙H∙H22O∙NO∙N22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙CO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙N∙N22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)33, ,
HH++∙(H∙(H22O)O)44, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)55, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)66, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)77, H, H33OO++∙CO∙CO22, H, H33OO++∙N∙N22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙CO∙CO22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙N∙N22
e¯,O¯, Oe¯,O¯, O22¯, O¯, O33¯, O¯, O44¯, OH¯, CO¯, OH¯, CO33¯, CO¯, CO44¯, NO¯, NO22¯, NO¯, NO33¯, HCO¯, HCO33¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH33¯,O¯,O22¯∙H¯∙H22O, NOO, NO33¯∙H¯∙H22O, O,
COCO33¯∙H¯∙H22OO
Neutral components:Neutral components:
OO33 , O , O** , O , O , O , O22
**, NO, HO, NO, HO22, ClO, NO, ClO, NO
22 , OH, NO , OH, NO33, N, N
22OO55, , HNOHNO33, HONO, HONO
33, ClONO, ClONO22, Cl, N, N, Cl, N, N**, H, H
22OO22, H, HOCl, , H, HOCl,
ClCl22, Cl, Cl
22OO22, HCl , Br, CH, HCl , Br, CH22O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNOO, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO
33, BrCl, CH, BrCl, CH33, CH, CH
33OO22, CH, CH33O, HCO, CHO, HCO, CH
33OO22H, HH, H22O, O,
CFC-11, CFC-12, NCFC-11, CFC-12, N22O, CHO, CH
44, CO, H, CO, H22, CBrF, CBrF
33
Charged components:Charged components:
OO+,+, O O22++, O, O44
++, N, N++, NO, NO++, N, N22++, H, H22OO22
++, H, H33OO++,O,O22++∙N∙N22, O, O22
++∙H∙H22O, HO, H33OO++∙OH, NO∙OH, NO++∙H∙H22O, NOO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)33, ,
NONO++∙CO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙N∙N22, NO, NO++∙H∙H22O∙COO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙H∙H22O∙NO∙N22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙CO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙N∙N22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)33, ,
HH++∙(H∙(H22O)O)44, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)55, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)66, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)77, H, H33OO++∙CO∙CO22, H, H33OO++∙N∙N22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙CO∙CO22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙N∙N22
e¯,O¯, Oe¯,O¯, O22¯, O¯, O33¯, O¯, O44¯, OH¯, CO¯, OH¯, CO33¯, CO¯, CO44¯, NO¯, NO22¯, NO¯, NO33¯, HCO¯, HCO33¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH33¯,O¯,O22¯∙H¯∙H22O, NOO, NO33¯∙H¯∙H22O, O,
COCO33¯∙H¯∙H22OO
Neutral components:Neutral components:
OO33 , O , O** , O , O , O , O22
**, NO, HO, NO, HO22, ClO, NO, ClO, NO
22 , OH, NO , OH, NO33, N, N
22OO55, , HNOHNO33, HONO, HONO
33, ClONO, ClONO22, Cl, N, N, Cl, N, N**, H, H
22OO22, H, HOCl, , H, HOCl,
ClCl22, Cl, Cl
22OO22, HCl , Br, CH, HCl , Br, CH22O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNOO, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO
33, BrCl, CH, BrCl, CH33, CH, CH
33OO22, CH, CH33O, HCO, CHO, HCO, CH
33OO22H, HH, H22O, O,
CFC-11, CFC-12, NCFC-11, CFC-12, N22O, CHO, CH
44, CO, H, CO, H22, CBrF, CBrF
33
4D:latitude, longitude, altitude, time
4D:latitude, longitude, altitude, time
Key chemical Key chemical processesprocesses
MiddleStratosphere
Mesosphere
O2 + hv (<240 nm) = O + O O + O2 + M= O3 + M
Ozone production
H2O + hv (<200 nm) = OH + H
NO + hv = NO+ + e-
Ozone destruction by HOx
EPP:EPP:
Air + particles=
HOx + NOx +Ions + e-
Ozone destruction by HOx
Ozone destruction by NOx
TransportTransport
GCRGCRSPESPEEEPEEP
Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Lyman-Lyman- line from the 2-month mean. line from the 2-month mean.
Compiled by J. Lean
Electron density in the tropics
Tropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cmTropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cm -3-3). ).
Solar UV
SPE
GCR
IR provided by J.-M. Wissing, AIMOS model
Maps of the electron density at 75 km during Maps of the electron density at 75 km during quiet time and Halloween storm. quiet time and Halloween storm.
Funke et al.,2010b
SSI at 205 nm since 1.06.2004
Case study with CICM SOCOL: Increase SSI by ~5%
The sensitivity of the OH,O3 and electrons for 2004-5 can be estimated using any of availble data sets
Comparison with observations:Hydroxyl (75 km, tropical mean)
June, July and August 2004
Experimental setup for nowcasting
10-member model ensemble runfor the next 6 hours
10-member model ensemble runfor the next 6 hours
Spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid
for the next 6 hours
Spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid
for the next 6 hours
Initial fields for 10 ensemble
members
Initial fields for 10 ensemble
members
Model outputfor the next 6 hours
Model outputfor the next 6 hours
Initialization fieldsfor the next periodInitialization fieldsfor the next period
Website
http://projects.pmodwrc.ch/lyra/
http://147.86.9.121/test/silver/:
10-11.2010
O3, NO, NO2, OH, H2O
e-, total p+
T, den, GPH
Conclusions and outlook •Model reasonable reproduces the resposnse of the middle atmosphere to the variability of solar irradiance and particles
•Visualization software is ready for operations
•Validation should be extended to cover extra-polar ozone and electron density
•LYRA and PREMOS solar irradiance data is not yet fully calibrated and at the moment we do not have real-time SSI data to run the model in nowcasting mode
•The extention of the model to cover ionosphere will make our results more usable.
• Visualization software in climate mode can be use for educational and outreach purposes.