Miljøbelastning med anthropogene stoffer
Eksempel „bly“, emissioner og deponering i Europa, 1958- 1995
Hans von Storch, Charlotte Hagner, Mariza Costa-Cabral
Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum
Miljøbelastning med anthropogene stoffer
Eksempel „bly“, emissioner og deponering i Europa, 1958- 1995
Hans von Storch, Charlotte Hagner, Mariza Costa-Cabral
Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum
Geofysisk Afdeling, Niels Bohr Institutet, København, 16. Oktober 2002
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Motivation1. Prototypical example of a reconstructing of flow
and deposition of anthropogenic matter on the regional scale (50 - 1000 km).
2. Lead is also chosen because of the highly variable emissions, with an unabated increase until about 1970 and several political regulations in the 1970s and 1980s, which ended with the out-phasing of lead in gasoline.
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Lead emission
Total gasoline sale
Consumption of gasoline in Germany (mio.litres) and associated lead emissions (tons)
Political regulation in 1971, 1975 and 1985.
General overview of lead pollution
Source: Umweltbundesamt 2001
Atmospheric Lead Concentration in German Urban and Rural Areas 1970-1989
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I f KData source: Umweltprobenbank, Research Center Karlsruhe, 1999
Lead concentration in annual beech leaves in German forest areas 1989-1997
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I f KData source: Pb – monitoring of the German Environmental Ministry (1998) and Landesamt Nordrhein –Westfalen(1998).
Atmospheric Lead Concentrations in German Conurbation and Rural Areas 1986 –1995
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I f KData source: Umweltprobenbank 1999b
Lead concentrations (g/g) in spruce (Picea abies) sprouts and poplar (Populus nigra) leaves in urban areas in Saarland, 1985-1996
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Lead concentration (mg/kg) in Blue Mussels (Mytilus Edulis)
in the North Sea, 1982-1997
Data source: Ministry of Ecology of Niedersachsen 1999
* Sample stations: Bantsbalje ( 53°34’/ 7°01’); Borkum ( 53°35.4’/ 6°47.84’); Cuxhaven Leitdamm ( 53°53.05’/ 8°41.03’); Elmshörn Rinne ( 53°29.05’/ 6°54.00’);
Mellumbalje ( 53°41.09’/ 8 °08.08’)
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0
40
80
120
g/l
lead in human bloodaccording to G and M data sets
G childrenG adultsM
European Gasoline Lead Content Regulations
Initial Regulations
Germany
– 1971, the ”German Environmental Programm” was passed
Increasing automobile emissions were considered to be a latent danger for humans, animals and plants
– 1972, legal max. lead content of gasoline: 0.4 g Pb/l
– 1976, legal max. lead content of gasoline: 0.15 g Pb/l
European Union
– 1978, the first EU-regulation of lead in gasoline was adopted:
– Gasoline with more than 0.4 g Pb/l was banned on EU-markets
Further Regulations
Germany
– 1984, unleaded gasoline was introduced on the German market, complemented by tax incentives
– Justified by widespread damage to forests due to NOx, CO and CxHy
– 1988, low-emission cars become obligatory
European Union
– 1989, obligation to offer super-unleaded gasoline in all member states
– lead in gasoline should be reduced to max. 0.15 g Pb/l Inst
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I f KData source: German Environmental Ministry ,1998
Annual Lead Emissions in Different EU–Nations 1980 –1996
Sources of lead emissions, 1955-1995
Costa-C
abral, 2001
Estimatedlead emissions(from Pacyna and Pacyna, 2000)
1955
19951955
1975
Atmospheric concentration
deposition
Calculated depositions
1995
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
lead concentration in the airwaldhof obswaldhof simwesterland obswesterland sim
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model estimate
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Chemical / ecological dimension
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1960 1970 1980 1990
0
200
400
600
modelling lead concentrationin air using (5)
6 cell AElinearly interpolated LCannual series LC
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1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994
0
40
80
120
160
200
lea
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on
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ntr
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in h
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blo
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(g
/l)
Fit of (6/7) and test of (4)observed 95% -ileestimated 95%-ileobserved m eanestimated mean
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0 100 200
0
200
400
600
800
frequency distribution of LH B (g/l)
in adults in 1991/1992 in the M dats set
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1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
0
100
200
300
400le
ad
co
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en
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tio
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blo
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(g
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means
90%-iles
95%-iles
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I f K1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
100
200
300
400
lea
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on
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ntr
ati
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in b
loo
d,
g/l
lead concentrations in human bloodadults in Münster
scenario 1: m eansscenario 1: 90% ilesscenario 1: 95% ilesscenario 2: 90% ilesscenario 3: 90% iles
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Conclusions1. Past political and economic evolutions may be assessed
quantitatively by a retrospective analysis. Scenarios of environmental impact of possible future socio-economic developments are possible to be constructed.
2. Lead reduction in gasoline was successful in reducing the presence of lead in the atmosphere, in terrestrial ecosystems and in men.
3. In aquatic ecosystems the increase of concentrations has been halted at a level well above the natural level. (How long is the residence time in sediment?)
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Data source: Koopmann et al.1994
Lead Concentrations (g/kg) in Surface Sediments (0-10 cm depth) of the Wadden Sea
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I f KData source: Schwedhelm & Irion 1985
Lead Concentrations in a Marsh Sediment Core (≤2m)
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Lead Use in Gasoline in 1996
Country Western Europe
Lead Content in Gasoline (g/l)
Market Share of Leaded Gasoline (%)
Austria 0 0 (since 1993)
Belgium 0.013 26
Denmark 0 0
Finland 0 0
France 0.013 38
Germany 0.013 3
Greece 0.4 (0.15 in Athens) 67 (since 1995)
Iceland 0.013 15
Ireland 0.013 35
Italy 0.013 56
Luxembourg 0.013 18
Netherlands 0.013 14
Norway 0.013 2
Portugal 0.4 61
Spain 0.4 77
Sweden 0 0 (since 1994)
Switzerland 0.013 13
Turkey 0.4 82
United Kingdom 0.013 33
Country Central and Eastern Europe
Lead Content in Gasoline (g/l)
Market Share of Leaded Gasoline (%)
Bulgaria 0.15 95
Croatia 0.6 70
Czech Republic 0.15 45
Hungary 0.15 36
Moldova 0.4 100
Poland 0.15 30
Romania 0.6 94
Russian Federation 0.6 50
Slovak Republic 0 0 (since 1995)
Source: modified from World Bank 1997
Source: World Bank (1997), Heinzow et al. (1998)
Blood Lead Levels in Different Cities in 1980s and 1990s
US- scientists expect health dangers for children above a blood lead level of 100g/l.
German experts are convinced there can be health dangers above 150gPb/l.
blo
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g/l)
years of sampling