Download pdf - Market Trends Seminar€¦ · Central London supply – September 2016 27.0m sq ft (%) sq ft (RHS) Vacancy rate (all grades) Completed Under construction Proposed Potential fringe

Welcome……..

Market Trends Seminar Post-Brexit Prospects for Property

October 26th 2016

Your Panel……..

Steve Mallen

– Principal, Steve Mallen Consulting (Geography)

Marcus Geddes

– Head of London Portfolio, Land Securities (Land Economy)

James Gulliford

– Joint Head of National Investments, Savills (Land Economy)

Andrew Hook

– Fund Manager, Aviva Investors Property Trust (Law, Real Estate Finance & Geography)

Dominic Smith

– Head of Real Estate Debt Analytics, CBRE (Geography)

Agenda……...

Moderator……..

Introduction Steve Mallen

Principal, SM Consulting

Steve Mallen

Brexit – Does it matter ?

Steve Mallen

Total Value of UK Mortgage Approvals

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Steve Mallen

Jan10 Aug 16

Source: BSA

Steve Mallen

Retail sales – UK Investment Funds……..

Source: Investment Association

Marcus Geddes Head of Property, London Portfolio

London Portfolio

Take-up falling

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Million sq ft Central London quarterly take-up

Quarterly take-up

Source: CBRE

-

2.0

4.0

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Grade A completions and vacancy

Central London supply – September 2016

Source: CBRE, Knight Frank, Land Securities

Va

ca

ncy ra

te (%

) M

illio

n s

q f

t

Completed Under construction

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

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16.0

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1+

Grade A completions and vacancy

Central London supply – September 2016

27.0m

sq ft

Va

ca

ncy ra

te (%

) M

illio

n s

q f

t

(RHS) Vacancy rate (all grades)

Completed Under construction Proposed

Potential fringe London Average completions


Central London supply – March 16 and September 16

forecasts

8.1 7.1

10.4 10.0 8.8

23.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Mar16

Mar16

Mar16

Mar16

Mar16

Mar16

Million sq

ft


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021+

Forecast Grade A completions

Central London supply – March 16 and September 16

forecasts

8.1 7.1

10.4 10.0 8.8

23.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Mar16

Sept16

Mar16

Sept16

Mar16

Sept16

Mar16

Sept16

Mar16

Sept16

Mar16

Sept16

Million sq

ft

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021+

7.0

8.4

9.7

13.0

27.0

8.4


Forecast Grade A completions Average completions

Rents fall as occupiers release space

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

%

Source: CBRE and IPD

Central London rental value growth

Rents fall as occupiers release space

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

%

Mill

ion

s o

f sq ft

-28%

Net new supply of second hand space Central London rental value growth

-23%

Source: CBRE and IPD

Volumes down 36% compared to Q3 2015*, slowing ahead to 23 June

Well let, high quality assets most resilient

Limited transactional evidence on higher risk properties

Investment Market

Nova South, SW1 * Rolling 4 quarters year-on-year

Re-pricing of risk

Marginal movement of assumptions

Significant impact on land value

Investment Market - Land Pricing

Cushman Wakefield

London Portfolio

£3bn of disposals in London over the last six years

Crystallising early profit on developments

Disposal of non-core assets with limited look ahead returns after adding value

Sales – crystallising value

Empress State, SW6

110 Cannon Street, EC4

Thomas More Square, E1

Arundel Great Court, WC2

Holborn Gate, WC1

Times Square, EC4

London

Portfolio

Key:

Size denotes

weighting by

value

Portion of London Portfolio refurbished or developed since 2006

A modern relevant office portfolio

81% of the portfolio is less than 10 years old

Demolish

ed and

redevelop

ed

61%

Refurbish

ed

20%

Managed

19%

Diverse customer base

16.4%

42.2%

13.8%

14.4%

2.2%

5.5%

2.1% 3.4%

Selected key occupiers Rental income by business sector

Standard Industrial Classification

Retail Trade

Public admin

Manufacturing

Transport and comms

Wholesale trade

Other

Financial services

Services

Source: Land Securities and IPD

3.5m sq ft development programme

11.5 acres of new public realm

20,000 employed on construction sites

Community Employment Programme: trained 1,100 over last 5 years securing 826 jobs

Development

Nova, SW1

20 Eastbourne Terrace, W2

Three lettings secured in August totalling 24,000 sq ft

10 year leases

90% let with two floors remaining

1 & 2 New Ludgate, EC4

5,160 sq ft let since March

96% let with one floor remaining

Development letting – maintaining momentum

New Ludgate, EC4

20 Eastbourne Terrace, W2

83,000 sq ft let since March 2016 on 15 year leases

Now 35% pre-let

360,000 sq ft to let

Retailers and office occupiers fitting out

Nova – good interest as we approach completion

Nova North, SW1

Rigorous asset management

Located next to Tottenham Court Road Crossrail station

Trip Advisor has taken an additional 8,500 sq ft of space

Leases extended to 2023

Pre-agreed 2018 rent reviews

Rent increased by 38%

7 Soho Square – growing customer, lengthening income

Tottenham Court

Road - East

Soho

Square

Tottenham Court Road

- West

Creating opportunities

Piccadilly Lights

Obtained planning consent to replace existing 6 screens with a single state of the art screen

Flexibility over how space is used

Interactive screen technology responding to public, environment and social media

Creating opportunities – harnessing new technology

Piccadilly Lights, consented screen

Geography – well-connected locations across the whole of London

Capitalise on development and refurbishment skills

Pure yield / asset management opportunities to capture rental and capital value growth

Restocking the portfolio

Development programme funded by judicious sales

Created building and income resilience

Creating and seizing opportunities to drive value

Ready to restock…but patient

Replacing risk with resilience

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“Post Brexit Prospects for Property” 26th October 2016

Where were we before the Brexit?

• Comparatively strong economic outlook, with some concerns about austerity

• Investment cycle slowing both in terms of volume and pricing (“depth” in bidding

evaporated in Summer 15)

• Occupational markets robust:

Lower vacancies than previous cycles

Some questions about expanding development pipeline particularly in C London

Slowing investment volumes and prime yields not being met for 12 months +

Weakening (but positive) rental growth prospects

• Bank lending restrained and at low LTVs

• Property firmly in the “least worst asset” box

The sentiment-based investment market has slowed to similar levels that we saw in 2008 and 2009

0

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400

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,000

Jan

-14

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Ma

r-14

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y-1

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-14

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c-1

5

Jan

-16

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-16

Ma

r-16

Apr-

16

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y-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Aug-1

6 Num

ber

of de

als

£m

Volume £m No of deals

0

100

200

300

400

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Num

ber

of de

als

£m

Volume £m No of deals

UK RE market performance since the vote

• Initial turmoil created a perception of deep discounting (mainly from open ended daily

dealt funds), but this was not supported two weeks later

• Over the last month clear signs have emerged from buyers that while secondary or short

term income assets have seen declines, long term income and annuity type investments

with fixed uplifts are maintaining their value

• The devaluation of sterling and some price discounts mean that entry prices are nearly

20% cheaper than prior to the referendum for some investors

Biggest questions for 2016 and beyond are around the occupational markets

Retail

• Stable 2H 2016, then all eyes on consumer confidence, saving ratios and Christmas

• Weak pound, and minimum wage will drag on retailer profitability

Logistics

• Consumer caution may result in an uptick in online sales and support logistics demand

• Stable occupational outlook

Offices

• Needs-based occupational demand to be unaffected, though a rise in lease extensions likely as

businesses evaluate the new world. Leasing volumes lower than original forecast of reversion to

trend levels in 2017

• Regional office markets and outer London supported by lower supply and comparative cost savings

for occupiers

Conclusions and outlook

• Remember we started 2016, 6 years into an “upcycle”, with capital values up 35%, commercial

RE having outperformed all other asset classes and some yields were back to 2007 levels

• We are in a property boom and historically they have ended badly

• Investors don’t have confidence in the valuation system hence the discounts to NAV in public

markets

• Declining lease lengths increase income and pricing volatility (question relevance of risk

premium to gilt rate)

• Bull case revolved around low rates, the need for income plus increased allocations to RE

• IPD benchmarking is stifling creativity and dictating strategy

• Remember income makes up the vast majority of property’s long term performance and rental

growth always underwhelms

CULS – MARKET TRENDS 2016

The Post Brexit Prospects for Property

26th October 2016

AGENDA ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

OCCUPIER MARKET BACKGROUND

CAPITAL MARKET PERSPECTIVE

OUTLOOK

For the investor

42

European Economic Outlook

Eurozone economic sentiment recovers after the initial dip post Brexit vote

– GDP in the Eurozone is likely to continue to grow at a modest pace

– Economic confidence in the Eurozone and EU overall recovered in September from a dip seen after the UK’s EU referendum. For the

Eurozone, it is now above the May 2016 levels.

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

EU28 and Euro Area GDP Growth Rates (y/y)

EA 19 EU 28

%

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Economic Sentiment Indicator

EA 19 EU 28

Index

For the investor

43

European Economic Outlook Unemployment and low inflation point to continued weakness in the European

economy

– Unemployment in the Eurozone remained stable at 10.1% in August 2016 - the lowest point since mid-2011.

– Eurozone consumer prices rose 0.4% in August (y/y) – the fastest rate since mid-2014. Inflation is still uncomfortably low, well below the ECB’s

inflation target close to 2%.

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Unemployment rate

Eurozone Spain Germany France Ireland

%

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Eurozone inflation (y/y)

Headline CPI Rate Core CPI rate

%

For the investor

44

Prime rents increased by 3.8% y/y in Q3 following a 3.5% rise in H1 2016. Retail continues to outperform.

Source: CBRE

Positive indicators for European property markets

Improving occupier market fundamentals

Source: CBRE

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Eurozone Prime Rent Index (2007Q1=100)

Retail Industrial Office All property

Index

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EU-15 Office Vacancy Index (2007Q1=100) Index

For the investor

45

Supply response remains modest

New supply remains limited in most markets

Significant levels of development in CEE markets, Dublin and Luxembourg.

Source: PMA

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Office Development Pipeline (Net Addition as % Stock)

2017-18 2019-21 2017-2021

For the investor

46

Investment demand remains high

Sweden, CEE, Denmark, Finland and Netherlands recorded double-digit y/y increases in investment volumes in Q1-Q3

2016

* France, Germany, Benelux

** Austria, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia

Investment volumes lower than in 2015 due to supply shortages, still above average

Source: CBRE

0

10

20

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60

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

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2015

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2016

European ex UK Investment Volumes

Core Periphery Nordics 4Q rolling average

€ billion

For the investor

47

Market pricing suggests that bond yields will remain in negative territory until 2019.

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Source: Bloomberg, as at 20/10/2016

Higher uncertainty to drive government bond yields lower for longer

Government bond yield movements

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16

5Y Government Bond Yields

France Germany Sweden Belgium

%

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

01/02/2017 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021

5Y German Gov’t Bond Forward Curve

Today -3M -6M -9M

For the investor

48

A higher spread between property and bond yields is expected in 2016 and 2017 as government bond yields remain close

to zero.

Source: Bloomberg, Aviva Investors.

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

% Europe (ex UK) All Property vs. 10y German Bund

Spread Q3 2016 All Property (ex UK) Yield Q3 2016 All Property (ex UK) Yield Q2 2016

10Y Government Bund Yield Q3 2016 10Y Government Bund Yield Q2 2016 Spread Q2 2016

Forecasts

Property risk premium over bonds to remain substantial

Lower bond yields for longer will drive the spread in next 5 years

OUTLOOK FOR EUROPEAN REAL

ESTATE

For the investor

50

Office markets, more advanced in the rental and yield cycles, will underperform.

0

2

4

6

8

Europe (ex UK) Total Return Forecasts, 2016H2-2021H1( p.a.) %

Source: Aviva Investors.

European prime total return forecasts – 2016H2-2021H1

Retail markets in CEE, Ireland and Spain expected to deliver the highest returns

For the investor

Political Risk remains elevated Plenty of political hurdles to jump

DATE

COUNTRY POLITICAL EVENT

23rd November 2016 USA US presidential election

4th December 2016 Italy Constitutional referendum

4th December 2016 Austria Presidential election (re-run)

15th March 2017 Netherlands Dutch parliamentary election

end-March 2017 UK / Wider EU Article 50 likely to be triggered

April / May 2017 France French presidential election

May 2017 Germany German regional elections

September 2017 Germany German parliamentary elections

Potential for contagion remains high

CBRE DEBT ANALYTICS

DEBT OUTLOOK AFTER THE VOTE

OCTOBER 2016

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Five year swap All property senior lending margin All-in cost of lending

Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

Source: CBRE, Macrobond.

Note: Assumes 65% LTV.

KEY COMPONENTS OF LENDING PRICING FOR Q4 2015 TO Q3 2016 SENIOR LENDING

CHANGING LENDING TERMS OVER THE LAST NINE MONTHS

% c106

bps

c6

bps

c68

bps

c6

bps c39

bps

0

20

40

60

80

100

200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

LTV at origination in % and end value in £

Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

0%

14%

12%

CHANGING DEFAULT RISK OVER THE LAST NINE MONTHS

Assumed LTV of 65%

at origination

ALL ASSETS START AT 100

3%

Source: CBRE.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR Q4 2015 TO Q3 2016 SENIOR LENDING

Pro

ba

bili

ty o

f d

efa

ult, %

PD = 0.1% PD = 0.5% PD = 2.2% PD = 2.1%

3.1

2.8

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Interest rate Margin Arr. Fee Gross return Expected Loss Risk adj return

CURRENT LENDING RETURNS



GROSS AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN FOR Q3 2016 SENIOR LENDING

%

0

20

40

60

80

100

200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0


Q3 2016

MITIGATING DEFAULT RISK THROUGH LOWER LTV

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR Q3 2016 SENIOR LENDING

Source: CBRE.

Pro

ba

bili

ty o

f d

efa

ult, %

3%

Assumed LTV of 65%

at origination

PD = 2.1% PD = 0.7%

Assumed LTV of 55%

at origination

ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE RETURNS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

Risk-adjusted return Gross return

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

Risk-adjusted return Gross return

GROSS AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN FOR Q4 2015 TO Q3 2016 SENIOR LENDING

Source: CBRE.


Se

nio

r le

nd

ing r

etu

rn, %

Se

nio

r le

nd

ing p

rem

ium

ve

rsus G

ilts,

%

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5 year Gilts iTraxx Main iTraxxCrossover

UK REITCrp Bonds

UK AAACMBS

UK AACMBS

UK ACMBS

UK BBBCMBS

Q3 2015 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

CRE DEBT IN A MULTI-ASSET CONTEXT

PREMIUM ON CRE DEBT VERSUS OTHER FORMS OF FIXED INCOME, Q3 2015 TO Q3 2016


Pre

miu

m o

ffe

red

by s

en

ior

CR

E le

nd

ing

0

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

Grossreturn

Risk-adjusted

return

Grossreturn

Risk-adjusted

return

Grossreturn

Risk-adjusted

return

Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

CHANGING LENDING RETURNS OVER THE LAST NINE MONTHS

‘GOOD’ SLOT ‘SATISFACTORY’

SLOT

GROSS AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN ON RWA FOR Q4 2015 TO Q3 2016 SENIOR LENDING



Re

turn

on

RW

A

‘STRONG’ SLOT

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Standard Shops Shopping Centres Retail Warehouses

Central London offices South Eastern offices Rest of UK offices

All Industrial

THE OUTLOOK FOR DIFFERENT SECTORS

0.3% – Shopping Centres

3.5% – SE Offices

0.1% – All Industrial

0.0% – Retail Warehouse

1.0% – Rest UK Offices

0.6% – Standard Shops

5.4% – Central London Offices

Probability of Default, Segments

Pro

ba

bili

ty o

f d

efa

ult, %

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR Q3 2016 SENIOR LENDING

Source: CBRE.

2% -2% 9% -5% -3% 2% 9%


Assumed LTV of 65%

at origination Retail

Warehouse

All Industrial

Rest of UK

Offices

Standard

Shops

Shopping

Centres

Central

London

Offices SE Offices

RETURNS TO EQUITY AND DEBT

0

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

All Property Standard ShopsShopping CentresRetail WarehousesAll RetailCentral London officesSouth Eastern officesRest of UK officesAll Offices All Industrial

Senior debt, risk-adjusted return Ungeared equity, total return Senior debt, gross return

COMPARISON OF RETURNS, EQUITY INVESTMENT AND Q3 2016 SENIOR LENDING

Retu

rn, %

pa

Source: CBRE.

2.8% 2.1%

2.4%

4.8% 3.4%

0.5%

1.8%

2.8%

1.0%

3.9%

COMPARISON OF RISK AND RETURN

Shops

Sh.Cen

R.W’house

London off

SE off

RUK off

Industrial

All property

Shops

Sh.Centre

R.W’house

London off

SE off

RUK off

Industrial

All property

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Historic standard deviation in five year total return, 1999-2015

Senior debt, risk-adjusted return Ungeared equity, total return

Source: CBRE.

EXPECTED RETURN VERSUS HISTORIC STANDARD DEVIATION IN RETURN

Fore

ca

st to

tal re

turn

, %

pa

, Q

3 2

01

6-Q

3 2

01

21

2.8

2.1 1.9 1.9

1.6

1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9

0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

0.3

0

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Sh

ops

Ind

ustr

ial

R.W

'ho

use

All

pro

pert

y

Lo

nd

on

off

Sh

.Ce

n

Ind

ustr

ial

R.W

'ho

use

RU

K o

ff

All

pro

pert

y

Sh

ops

RU

K o

ff

SE

off

Sh

.Ce

n

SE

off

Lo

nd

on

off

SHARPE RATIO

SHARPE RATIO FOR CRE DEBT AND CRE EQUITY

Sh

arp

e r

atio

Source: CBRE.

Senior debt, risk-adjusted return Ungeared equity, total return

CONCLUSIONS

SENIOR

LENDING

RETURNS

c.3%

MARGINS UP

25BPS

POST-BREXIT

VOTE

LOW CAPITAL

GROWTH

OUTLOOK DRIVES

PD UP TO 2% AT

65% LTV –

STILL MODEST,

AND SUB-1%

AT 55% LTV

PREMIUM TO

GILTS 2.5-2.8%

AND RISING

PREMIUM TO

CORPORATE

DEBT

1.8%

AND RISING

EQUITY

PREMIUM

FAIR, BUT NO

MORE

LOW VOLATILITY

OF CRE DEBT

MAKES

IT A CLEAR

RISK-ADJUSTED

WINNER

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION

CONTACT US

[email protected]

VISIT OUR MICROSITE FOR QUARTERLY

PUBLICATIONS AND TOPICAL THOUGHT

LEADERSHIP ITEMS –

www.valuedinsights.cbre.co.uk/debt-analytics

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.valuedinsights.cbre.co.uk/debt-analytics



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