Market Trend after the CrisisA Case in Japanese Outbound Travel
by Hiroshi KurosuJTB Foundation, Tokyo
Session 3, Day 1
GDP and Departure Rate by Gender
2All right reserved by JTB Foundation Departure rate = No. of Departure per capita
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
+0.0%
+0.2%
+0.4%
+0.6%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
2007 2008 2009 2010
Gro
wth
of r
eal G
DP,
ann
ualiz
ed a
nd s
easo
nally
adj
uste
d
Gro
wth
of d
epar
ture
rate
Real GDP growth
Male
Female
Rise of JPY and Japanese Arrivals to Korea
All right reserved by JTB Foundation 3
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4
2007 2008 2009 2010
Kor
ean
Won
to J
PY
(100
JPY
)
YoY
arr
ival
gro
wth
Arrival growth
JPY per Korean Won
Economy Under Long Lasting Deflation
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-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
GD
P G
ap (%
)
GD
P D
efla
tor
GDP Def lator
GDP Gap
Source: IMF
Departure Growth by Gender Age Group
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-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
0-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-
Gro
wth
of d
epar
ture
rate
2009 vs. 2008
Female Male
Growth of Passport Issues by Gender Age groupJune 2009~May 2010 (12 months)
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-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Under 20 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80 and over
YoY
gro
wth
FemaleMale
Rising Senior Market
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60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Depa
rture
s, M
AT
inde
xed
2000
=100
Over 60 male
Over 60 female
Japanese Arrivals to DestinationsYTD 2010
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-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
South KoreaMacau
VietnamChina
Hong KongGuamHawaiiTaiwan
MalaysiaNorthern Mariana
SingaporeNew Zealand
Australia
YTD 2010 cf. same period in 2008
Japanese Arrivals to China by Age Group
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-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
2008 2009 2010
YoY
grow
th
15-2425-4445-6465 and over
Japanese Arrivals to Korea by Age Group
All right reserved by JTB Foundation 10
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
2008 2009 2010
YoY
gro
wth
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61 and over
Improving Imagefor Northeast Asian Destinations
• Holiday market has been shifting to short-hauls from long-hauls since last decade
and now…• Both satisfaction levels and wish-to-return
rates are improving among those who visited Northeast Asian destinations
• Popularity for short-hauls as next holiday destinations is rising
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All right reserved by JTB Foundation 12
Implication to Regional Tourism• Demand for destinations in the region will
increase significantly as mid-long term trend– Senior travelers will lead the growth– Touring holiday will remain popular
• Total consumption in the region will grow– Average spending per trip may fall down
• More Japanese entrepreneurs are going to participate in the tourism product development in the region
• Japan will come into the LCC networkAll right reserved by JTB Foundation 13
Thank you