Trim Size: 25.375 x 11.0# of Pages: 2# of Colors: 4C ProcessBleed: 0.125
The regional unemployment rate has been following the pattern of both the U.S. and
Ohio. The trends for all three have been similar, although the NEO rate more closely
follows that of Ohio than the U.S. The slowing economy over the last year has
led to a leveling of the improvement trend at all levels.
2007 has the highest average annual employment in the last six years.
This report made possible through the generous support of Charter One Foundation.
737 Bolivar Road, Suite 2000, Cleveland, Ohio 44115888.NEO.1411 • www.teamneo.org • www.clevelandplusbusiness.com
Data Sources: Team Northeast Ohio uses a number of data sources for the Regional Economic Review. One of the primary sources is the Moody’s Economy.com (www.economy.com) regional modeling system. This firm is the leading independent provider of economic, financial and industry research and data that specializes in national and metropolitan economic growth forecasts. Moody’s Economy.com county level output, employment and payroll historical data are estimated from several publicly available sources and are summarized into the Team NEO regional footprint. It is important to understand data provided by Economy.com are estimates of economic activity.
Team NEO also uses data from federal and state sources as part of the report. As with Economy.com, the information for the Team NEO footprint is derived from data reported at either the county or metropolitan level. We rely heavily on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) and Ohio’s Labor Market Information (www.lmi.state.oh.us) for information on wages, unemployment and both general and industry-specific employment. In addition, Team NEO uses data from the Census (www.census.gov) to track housing-related activity including the number of single and multifamily permits, as well as their values.
Fourth Quarter Unemployment
Rate Shows Modest
Improvement
1.94
1.96
1.98
2.00
2.02
2.04
2.06
2.08
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
(Mill
ions
)
Northeast Ohio Total Employment
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Quarterly Unemployment Rate
NEO 16 Ohio U.S.
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
0.3%
5.1%3.8%
3.0%
4.8%2.6%
1.2% 0.3%(-1.9)%
1.2%1.8%
2.6% 1.1% 0.7%0.3%
1.0%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Northeast Ohio: Real GRPBillions (2006 Dollars)
Real GRP Average Annual Growth = 1.9%
Northeast Ohio
Economic Review
March 2008
Source: Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data)
Total Employment Is the Highest in the Last Six Years
Modest Growth Expected to Continue in 2008Northeast Ohio is seeing its sixth consecutive year of growth and has grown in 14 of the last 15 years. The anticipated real GRP for 2008 has been added to the chart, and at the time of this printing, we expect modest growth to continue.
The 2007 number was adjusted down as was 2006. This data comes from Moody’s Economy.com, which continues to revise its estimates. Even now, 2007 remains an estimated number. It comes as no surprise 2007 was adjusted down, as we know the economy weakened at the end of the year. The gap between the Average Annual Growth trend line and the 2007 bar is representative of softness in both the national and local economies.
Source: Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data)
Source: Moody’s Economy.com
This chart shows the total jobs in Northeast Ohio without seasonal adjustment. Looking at the history for each quarter makes it easier to see year-to-year comparisons. The overall trend also illustrates the seasonal pattern in employment. Total jobs usually are highest in Q3 and lowest in Q1.
For all of 2007, the employment levels for each quarter have been above or generally equal to the same quarters in 2006. The full year of 2007 outpaced 2006 as the highest annual employment in the last six years.
The seasonal decrease in total employment from Q3 to Q4 2007 was the smallest in recent years, a good sign for the resilience of the Northeast Ohio economy.
About Team NEOTeam NEO markets Northeast Ohio to attract business investment in targeted industry clusters. The organization is a joint venture of the largest metro chambers, representing 16 counties and their 4 million people. Team NEO serves as a central resource, informing and serving those considering investment in Northeast Ohio and is a co-founder of the Cleveland Plus™ Marketing Alliance, a coalition to drive strategic, long-term marketing for Northeast Ohio. For more information, visit www.teamneo.org.
Our partners include:Greater Cleveland Partnership
Greater Akron ChamberStark Development Board
Team Lorain CountyYoungstown-Warren Regional Chamber
Medina County Economic Development Corporation
High-skill industries and jobs fuel continued growth in Northeast Ohio.
AshtabulaLake
Cleveland
Akron Youngstown
Canton
Geauga
Trumbull
Portage
Mahoning
Columbiana
Carroll
Stark
Summit
Cuyahoga
Medina
Lorain
WayneAshland
Richland
Cleveland Plus 16-County Region
Trim Size: 25.375 x 11.0# of Pages: 2# of Colors: 4C ProcessBleed: 0.125
High-Tech Industries to Grow the Fastest; Manufacturing Still StrongThis chart ranks NEO industries based on Economy.com’s 10-year growth projections. The information industry is expected to grow the fastest, a total of 34%. Other faster-growing sectors include manufacturing; professional and technical services; and finance and insurance. Despite current perceptions, manufacturing output is projected to continue growing and will remain the largest sector in terms of GRP. Nearly all sectors are expected to grow. One surprising aspect of the Economy.com forecast is the slow growth projected for the health care industry, at both the national and NEO regional level. This is contrary to other national forecasts that show a general continuation of current growth trends in this sector. The regional forecast reflects expectations for the sectoral growth in the state and the U.S. However, local conditions, such as significant capital investments by health care providers in the region, are not factored into the forecast.
The first edition in 2008 of our quarterly Northeast Ohio Economic Review begins by
comparing our mix of industries with the U.S. as a whole, and then focuses on projections
for the next 10 years.
Projections Indicate Higher Paying Jobs Will Grow Faster
Economy.com predictions show strong growth trends in higher paying occupations. In our last report, we found that over the last 15 years, jobs with above average pay had grown 50% faster than jobs with below average pay. Economy.com’s
projections for the next ten years show jobs with above average pay in total growing 7.5%, while below average pay jobs in the aggregate show no growth
over this period. Thus, the historical trend is expected to be even more pronounced in the future. Higher paying occupations account for all the expected growth in
employment, indicating that education will become even more valuable in the future.
Northeast Ohio Projected Occupational Employment Change: 2007–2017
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Percent Change
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
Mgmt
LegalCmptr&Math
Food Prep & Serving
Production
Farm, Fish& Forest
Office & Admin
Hlth CareSpprt
Pers Care& Serv
Hlth CarePract & Tech
Edu,Trng& Lib
Bldg/GrndsClng/MntTrans &
Mtrl Mvg
Arch& Eng
Com & Soc Serv
Art, Dsgn& Ent
Sciences
Bus & FincConstruct
Sales
Install &Repair
ProtectServ
Source: Moody’s Economy.comSource: Moody’s Economy.com
KEY:The size of the bubbles in the chart correlates to the size of employment within the occupational group. The colors are only for ease of readability. The vertical scale shows the average annual wage for the occupation, depicting the Northeast Ohio average annual wage for 2006 (most current data available) of $37,800 with a gold bar. The horizontal scale shows anticipated estimated employment change over the next ten years.
The information sector is expected to grow 34% over the next 10 years.
NEO workforce expected to become more skilled.
Manufacturing and Headquarters Industry Sectors in the Cleveland Plus™ Region Have Higher Share Than U.S.This chart depicts total output for the U.S. and the 16-county Cleveland Plus™ region. The first six bars represent industries in which Northeast Ohio has a higher share of output than the national average. The final five represent those industries in which NEO’s output is less than the U.S. Output in Northeast Ohio continues to be driven by manufacturing, accounting for nearly 23% of total output. Though employment has declined in manufacturing, it remains a productive and essential component of the economy. Finance and insurance, as well as health care and social assistance, comprise a larger portion of the Northeast Ohio economy than they do nationally. This reflects the significant concentration of internationally recognized companies and institutions in this field. The Cleveland Plus region is also the headquarters for 10 Fortune 500 firms and many others. This strong corporate presence is reflected in the larger than national share of “management of companies and enterprises.”
Source: Moody’s Economy.com
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Information
Public Administration
All Other Industries
Mgmt of Companies/Entps
Retail Trade
Finance & Insurance
% of Total 2007 Gross Regional Product U.S. NEO
U.S. and Northeast Ohio 2007 Share of Output
Prof, Sci, & Tech Services
Real Estate / Rental & Leasing
Wholesale Trade
Health Care & Soc Asst
Manufacturing
KEY:(applies to both graph #1 & #2)For simplicity, we use “Output” to mean the same as “Gross Regional Product.” This is the total value of economic output less the value of raw material inputs. It is the total value-added component of production derived from a combination of land, labor and capital.
The designation of “All Other Industries” used in the graphs above refers to a combination of six aggregated industries. These industries include utilities; educational services; construction; agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; other services; and mining.
Finance, insurance, and health care
comprise a larger portion of the Northeast
Ohio economy than they do nationally.
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50
Information
Real Estate/Rental & Leasing
Prof, Sci, & Tech Services
Manufacturing
Finance & Insurance
Retail Trade
All Other Industries
Mgmt of Companies/Entps
Public Administration
Health Care & Soc Asst
Wholesale Trade
2017 2007
Northeast Ohio Projected Output Growth: 2007–2017Billions (2006 Dollars)
34%
25%
22%
22%
17%
17%
9%
6%
3%
2%
(-4%)
KEY:(applies to both graph #2 & #3)Moody’s Economy.com is the world-renowned source in economic data and forecasting. Their methodological approach to analysis of the U.S. economy models national and regional variables, allowing a richer set of data for long-term projections, such as the forecasts included in this report.
Trim Size: 25.375 x 11.0# of Pages: 2# of Colors: 4C ProcessBleed: 0.125
High-Tech Industries to Grow the Fastest; Manufacturing Still StrongThis chart ranks NEO industries based on Economy.com’s 10-year growth projections. The information industry is expected to grow the fastest, a total of 34%. Other faster-growing sectors include manufacturing; professional and technical services; and finance and insurance. Despite current perceptions, manufacturing output is projected to continue growing and will remain the largest sector in terms of GRP. Nearly all sectors are expected to grow. One surprising aspect of the Economy.com forecast is the slow growth projected for the health care industry, at both the national and NEO regional level. This is contrary to other national forecasts that show a general continuation of current growth trends in this sector. The regional forecast reflects expectations for the sectoral growth in the state and the U.S. However, local conditions, such as significant capital investments by health care providers in the region, are not factored into the forecast.
The first edition in 2008 of our quarterly Northeast Ohio Economic Review begins by
comparing our mix of industries with the U.S. as a whole, and then focuses on projections
for the next 10 years.
Projections Indicate Higher Paying Jobs Will Grow Faster
Economy.com predictions show strong growth trends in higher paying occupations. In our last report, we found that over the last 15 years, jobs with above average pay had grown 50% faster than jobs with below average pay. Economy.com’s
projections for the next ten years show jobs with above average pay in total growing 7.5%, while below average pay jobs in the aggregate show no growth
over this period. Thus, the historical trend is expected to be even more pronounced in the future. Higher paying occupations account for all the expected growth in
employment, indicating that education will become even more valuable in the future.
Northeast Ohio Projected Occupational Employment Change: 2007–2017
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Percent Change
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
Mgmt
LegalCmptr&Math
Food Prep & Serving
Production
Farm, Fish& Forest
Office & Admin
Hlth CareSpprt
Pers Care& Serv
Hlth CarePract & Tech
Edu,Trng& Lib
Bldg/GrndsClng/MntTrans &
Mtrl Mvg
Arch& Eng
Com & Soc Serv
Art, Dsgn& Ent
Sciences
Bus & FincConstruct
Sales
Install &Repair
ProtectServ
Source: Moody’s Economy.comSource: Moody’s Economy.com
KEY:The size of the bubbles in the chart correlates to the size of employment within the occupational group. The colors are only for ease of readability. The vertical scale shows the average annual wage for the occupation, depicting the Northeast Ohio average annual wage for 2006 (most current data available) of $37,800 with a gold bar. The horizontal scale shows anticipated estimated employment change over the next ten years.
The information sector is expected to grow 34% over the next 10 years.
NEO workforce expected to become more skilled.
Manufacturing and Headquarters Industry Sectors in the Cleveland Plus™ Region Have Higher Share Than U.S.This chart depicts total output for the U.S. and the 16-county Cleveland Plus™ region. The first six bars represent industries in which Northeast Ohio has a higher share of output than the national average. The final five represent those industries in which NEO’s output is less than the U.S. Output in Northeast Ohio continues to be driven by manufacturing, accounting for nearly 23% of total output. Though employment has declined in manufacturing, it remains a productive and essential component of the economy. Finance and insurance, as well as health care and social assistance, comprise a larger portion of the Northeast Ohio economy than they do nationally. This reflects the significant concentration of internationally recognized companies and institutions in this field. The Cleveland Plus region is also the headquarters for 10 Fortune 500 firms and many others. This strong corporate presence is reflected in the larger than national share of “management of companies and enterprises.”
Source: Moody’s Economy.com
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Information
Public Administration
All Other Industries
Mgmt of Companies/Entps
Retail Trade
Finance & Insurance
% of Total 2007 Gross Regional Product U.S. NEO
U.S. and Northeast Ohio 2007 Share of Output
Prof, Sci, & Tech Services
Real Estate / Rental & Leasing
Wholesale Trade
Health Care & Soc Asst
Manufacturing
KEY:(applies to both graph #1 & #2)For simplicity, we use “Output” to mean the same as “Gross Regional Product.” This is the total value of economic output less the value of raw material inputs. It is the total value-added component of production derived from a combination of land, labor and capital.
The designation of “All Other Industries” used in the graphs above refers to a combination of six aggregated industries. These industries include utilities; educational services; construction; agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; other services; and mining.
Finance, insurance, and health care
comprise a larger portion of the Northeast
Ohio economy than they do nationally.
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50
Information
Real Estate/Rental & Leasing
Prof, Sci, & Tech Services
Manufacturing
Finance & Insurance
Retail Trade
All Other Industries
Mgmt of Companies/Entps
Public Administration
Health Care & Soc Asst
Wholesale Trade
2017 2007
Northeast Ohio Projected Output Growth: 2007–2017Billions (2006 Dollars)
34%
25%
22%
22%
17%
17%
9%
6%
3%
2%
(-4%)
KEY:(applies to both graph #2 & #3)Moody’s Economy.com is the world-renowned source in economic data and forecasting. Their methodological approach to analysis of the U.S. economy models national and regional variables, allowing a richer set of data for long-term projections, such as the forecasts included in this report.
Trim Size: 25.375 x 11.0# of Pages: 2# of Colors: 4C ProcessBleed: 0.125
High-Tech Industries to Grow the Fastest; Manufacturing Still StrongThis chart ranks NEO industries based on Economy.com’s 10-year growth projections. The information industry is expected to grow the fastest, a total of 34%. Other faster-growing sectors include manufacturing; professional and technical services; and finance and insurance. Despite current perceptions, manufacturing output is projected to continue growing and will remain the largest sector in terms of GRP. Nearly all sectors are expected to grow. One surprising aspect of the Economy.com forecast is the slow growth projected for the health care industry, at both the national and NEO regional level. This is contrary to other national forecasts that show a general continuation of current growth trends in this sector. The regional forecast reflects expectations for the sectoral growth in the state and the U.S. However, local conditions, such as significant capital investments by health care providers in the region, are not factored into the forecast.
The first edition in 2008 of our quarterly Northeast Ohio Economic Review begins by
comparing our mix of industries with the U.S. as a whole, and then focuses on projections
for the next 10 years.
Projections Indicate Higher Paying Jobs Will Grow Faster
Economy.com predictions show strong growth trends in higher paying occupations. In our last report, we found that over the last 15 years, jobs with above average pay had grown 50% faster than jobs with below average pay. Economy.com’s
projections for the next ten years show jobs with above average pay in total growing 7.5%, while below average pay jobs in the aggregate show no growth
over this period. Thus, the historical trend is expected to be even more pronounced in the future. Higher paying occupations account for all the expected growth in
employment, indicating that education will become even more valuable in the future.
Northeast Ohio Projected Occupational Employment Change: 2007–2017
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Percent Change
Aver
age
Annu
al W
age
Mgmt
LegalCmptr&Math
Food Prep & Serving
Production
Farm, Fish& Forest
Office & Admin
Hlth CareSpprt
Pers Care& Serv
Hlth CarePract & Tech
Edu,Trng& Lib
Bldg/GrndsClng/MntTrans &
Mtrl Mvg
Arch& Eng
Com & Soc Serv
Art, Dsgn& Ent
Sciences
Bus & FincConstruct
Sales
Install &Repair
ProtectServ
Source: Moody’s Economy.comSource: Moody’s Economy.com
KEY:The size of the bubbles in the chart correlates to the size of employment within the occupational group. The colors are only for ease of readability. The vertical scale shows the average annual wage for the occupation, depicting the Northeast Ohio average annual wage for 2006 (most current data available) of $37,800 with a gold bar. The horizontal scale shows anticipated estimated employment change over the next ten years.
The information sector is expected to grow 34% over the next 10 years.
NEO workforce expected to become more skilled.
Manufacturing and Headquarters Industry Sectors in the Cleveland Plus™ Region Have Higher Share Than U.S.This chart depicts total output for the U.S. and the 16-county Cleveland Plus™ region. The first six bars represent industries in which Northeast Ohio has a higher share of output than the national average. The final five represent those industries in which NEO’s output is less than the U.S. Output in Northeast Ohio continues to be driven by manufacturing, accounting for nearly 23% of total output. Though employment has declined in manufacturing, it remains a productive and essential component of the economy. Finance and insurance, as well as health care and social assistance, comprise a larger portion of the Northeast Ohio economy than they do nationally. This reflects the significant concentration of internationally recognized companies and institutions in this field. The Cleveland Plus region is also the headquarters for 10 Fortune 500 firms and many others. This strong corporate presence is reflected in the larger than national share of “management of companies and enterprises.”
Source: Moody’s Economy.com
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Information
Public Administration
All Other Industries
Mgmt of Companies/Entps
Retail Trade
Finance & Insurance
% of Total 2007 Gross Regional Product U.S. NEO
U.S. and Northeast Ohio 2007 Share of Output
Prof, Sci, & Tech Services
Real Estate / Rental & Leasing
Wholesale Trade
Health Care & Soc Asst
Manufacturing
KEY:(applies to both graph #1 & #2)For simplicity, we use “Output” to mean the same as “Gross Regional Product.” This is the total value of economic output less the value of raw material inputs. It is the total value-added component of production derived from a combination of land, labor and capital.
The designation of “All Other Industries” used in the graphs above refers to a combination of six aggregated industries. These industries include utilities; educational services; construction; agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; other services; and mining.
Finance, insurance, and health care
comprise a larger portion of the Northeast
Ohio economy than they do nationally.
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50
Information
Real Estate/Rental & Leasing
Prof, Sci, & Tech Services
Manufacturing
Finance & Insurance
Retail Trade
All Other Industries
Mgmt of Companies/Entps
Public Administration
Health Care & Soc Asst
Wholesale Trade
2017 2007
Northeast Ohio Projected Output Growth: 2007–2017Billions (2006 Dollars)
34%
25%
22%
22%
17%
17%
9%
6%
3%
2%
(-4%)
KEY:(applies to both graph #2 & #3)Moody’s Economy.com is the world-renowned source in economic data and forecasting. Their methodological approach to analysis of the U.S. economy models national and regional variables, allowing a richer set of data for long-term projections, such as the forecasts included in this report.
Trim Size: 25.375 x 11.0# of Pages: 2# of Colors: 4C ProcessBleed: 0.125
The regional unemployment rate has been following the pattern of both the U.S. and
Ohio. The trends for all three have been similar, although the NEO rate more closely
follows that of Ohio than the U.S. The slowing economy over the last year has
led to a leveling of the improvement trend at all levels.
2007 has the highest average annual employment in the last six years.
This report made possible through the generous support of Charter One Foundation.
737 Bolivar Road, Suite 2000, Cleveland, Ohio 44115888.NEO.1411 • www.teamneo.org • www.clevelandplusbusiness.com
Data Sources: Team Northeast Ohio uses a number of data sources for the Regional Economic Review. One of the primary sources is the Moody’s Economy.com (www.economy.com) regional modeling system. This firm is the leading independent provider of economic, financial and industry research and data that specializes in national and metropolitan economic growth forecasts. Moody’s Economy.com county level output, employment and payroll historical data are estimated from several publicly available sources and are summarized into the Team NEO regional footprint. It is important to understand data provided by Economy.com are estimates of economic activity.
Team NEO also uses data from federal and state sources as part of the report. As with Economy.com, the information for the Team NEO footprint is derived from data reported at either the county or metropolitan level. We rely heavily on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) and Ohio’s Labor Market Information (www.lmi.state.oh.us) for information on wages, unemployment and both general and industry-specific employment. In addition, Team NEO uses data from the Census (www.census.gov) to track housing-related activity including the number of single and multifamily permits, as well as their values.
Fourth Quarter Unemployment
Rate Shows Modest
Improvement
1.94
1.96
1.98
2.00
2.02
2.04
2.06
2.08
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
(Mill
ions
)
Northeast Ohio Total Employment
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Quarterly Unemployment Rate
NEO 16 Ohio U.S.
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
0.3%
5.1%3.8%
3.0%
4.8%2.6%
1.2% 0.3%(-1.9)%
1.2%1.8%
2.6% 1.1% 0.7%0.3%
1.0%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Northeast Ohio: Real GRPBillions (2006 Dollars)
Real GRP Average Annual Growth = 1.9%
Northeast Ohio
Economic Review
March 2008
Source: Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data)
Total Employment Is the Highest in the Last Six Years
Modest Growth Expected to Continue in 2008Northeast Ohio is seeing its sixth consecutive year of growth and has grown in 14 of the last 15 years. The anticipated real GRP for 2008 has been added to the chart, and at the time of this printing, we expect modest growth to continue.
The 2007 number was adjusted down as was 2006. This data comes from Moody’s Economy.com, which continues to revise its estimates. Even now, 2007 remains an estimated number. It comes as no surprise 2007 was adjusted down, as we know the economy weakened at the end of the year. The gap between the Average Annual Growth trend line and the 2007 bar is representative of softness in both the national and local economies.
Source: Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data)
Source: Moody’s Economy.com
This chart shows the total jobs in Northeast Ohio without seasonal adjustment. Looking at the history for each quarter makes it easier to see year-to-year comparisons. The overall trend also illustrates the seasonal pattern in employment. Total jobs usually are highest in Q3 and lowest in Q1.
For all of 2007, the employment levels for each quarter have been above or generally equal to the same quarters in 2006. The full year of 2007 outpaced 2006 as the highest annual employment in the last six years.
The seasonal decrease in total employment from Q3 to Q4 2007 was the smallest in recent years, a good sign for the resilience of the Northeast Ohio economy.
About Team NEOTeam NEO markets Northeast Ohio to attract business investment in targeted industry clusters. The organization is a joint venture of the largest metro chambers, representing 16 counties and their 4 million people. Team NEO serves as a central resource, informing and serving those considering investment in Northeast Ohio and is a co-founder of the Cleveland Plus™ Marketing Alliance, a coalition to drive strategic, long-term marketing for Northeast Ohio. For more information, visit www.teamneo.org.
Our partners include:Greater Cleveland Partnership
Greater Akron ChamberStark Development Board
Team Lorain CountyYoungstown-Warren Regional Chamber
Medina County Economic Development Corporation
High-skill industries and jobs fuel continued growth in Northeast Ohio.
AshtabulaLake
Cleveland
Akron Youngstown
Canton
Geauga
Trumbull
Portage
Mahoning
Columbiana
Carroll
Stark
Summit
Cuyahoga
Medina
Lorain
WayneAshland
Richland
Cleveland Plus 16-County Region
Trim Size: 25.375 x 11.0# of Pages: 2# of Colors: 4C ProcessBleed: 0.125
The regional unemployment rate has been following the pattern of both the U.S. and
Ohio. The trends for all three have been similar, although the NEO rate more closely
follows that of Ohio than the U.S. The slowing economy over the last year has
led to a leveling of the improvement trend at all levels.
2007 has the highest average annual employment in the last six years.
This report made possible through the generous support of Charter One Foundation.
737 Bolivar Road, Suite 2000, Cleveland, Ohio 44115888.NEO.1411 • www.teamneo.org • www.clevelandplusbusiness.com
Data Sources: Team Northeast Ohio uses a number of data sources for the Regional Economic Review. One of the primary sources is the Moody’s Economy.com (www.economy.com) regional modeling system. This firm is the leading independent provider of economic, financial and industry research and data that specializes in national and metropolitan economic growth forecasts. Moody’s Economy.com county level output, employment and payroll historical data are estimated from several publicly available sources and are summarized into the Team NEO regional footprint. It is important to understand data provided by Economy.com are estimates of economic activity.
Team NEO also uses data from federal and state sources as part of the report. As with Economy.com, the information for the Team NEO footprint is derived from data reported at either the county or metropolitan level. We rely heavily on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) and Ohio’s Labor Market Information (www.lmi.state.oh.us) for information on wages, unemployment and both general and industry-specific employment. In addition, Team NEO uses data from the Census (www.census.gov) to track housing-related activity including the number of single and multifamily permits, as well as their values.
Fourth Quarter Unemployment
Rate Shows Modest
Improvement
1.94
1.96
1.98
2.00
2.02
2.04
2.06
2.08
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
(Mill
ions
)
Northeast Ohio Total Employment
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Quarterly Unemployment Rate
NEO 16 Ohio U.S.
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
0.3%
5.1%3.8%
3.0%
4.8%2.6%
1.2% 0.3%(-1.9)%
1.2%1.8%
2.6% 1.1% 0.7%0.3%
1.0%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Northeast Ohio: Real GRPBillions (2006 Dollars)
Real GRP Average Annual Growth = 1.9%
Northeast Ohio
Economic Review
March 2008
Source: Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data)
Total Employment Is the Highest in the Last Six Years
Modest Growth Expected to Continue in 2008Northeast Ohio is seeing its sixth consecutive year of growth and has grown in 14 of the last 15 years. The anticipated real GRP for 2008 has been added to the chart, and at the time of this printing, we expect modest growth to continue.
The 2007 number was adjusted down as was 2006. This data comes from Moody’s Economy.com, which continues to revise its estimates. Even now, 2007 remains an estimated number. It comes as no surprise 2007 was adjusted down, as we know the economy weakened at the end of the year. The gap between the Average Annual Growth trend line and the 2007 bar is representative of softness in both the national and local economies.
Source: Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data)
Source: Moody’s Economy.com
This chart shows the total jobs in Northeast Ohio without seasonal adjustment. Looking at the history for each quarter makes it easier to see year-to-year comparisons. The overall trend also illustrates the seasonal pattern in employment. Total jobs usually are highest in Q3 and lowest in Q1.
For all of 2007, the employment levels for each quarter have been above or generally equal to the same quarters in 2006. The full year of 2007 outpaced 2006 as the highest annual employment in the last six years.
The seasonal decrease in total employment from Q3 to Q4 2007 was the smallest in recent years, a good sign for the resilience of the Northeast Ohio economy.
About Team NEOTeam NEO markets Northeast Ohio to attract business investment in targeted industry clusters. The organization is a joint venture of the largest metro chambers, representing 16 counties and their 4 million people. Team NEO serves as a central resource, informing and serving those considering investment in Northeast Ohio and is a co-founder of the Cleveland Plus™ Marketing Alliance, a coalition to drive strategic, long-term marketing for Northeast Ohio. For more information, visit www.teamneo.org.
Our partners include:Greater Cleveland Partnership
Greater Akron ChamberStark Development Board
Team Lorain CountyYoungstown-Warren Regional Chamber
Medina County Economic Development Corporation
High-skill industries and jobs fuel continued growth in Northeast Ohio.
AshtabulaLake
Cleveland
Akron Youngstown
Canton
Geauga
Trumbull
Portage
Mahoning
Columbiana
Carroll
Stark
Summit
Cuyahoga
Medina
Lorain
WayneAshland
Richland
Cleveland Plus 16-County Region