LNG Developments in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean
Luke StobbartSenior Pricing Specialist - Atlantic LNG
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 2
• New Demand in the M. East and S. Asia
• US LNG
• The Panama Canal
Developments in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean
Private & Confidential. 3
New Demand in the M. East and S. Asia
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 4
• Pakistan – Exquisite – March 2015
• Egypt - Hoegh Gallant – April 2015
• Jordan – Golar Eskimo – May 2015
• Egypt – BW Singapore – September 2015
New FSRUs in the M. East and S. Asia
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 5
Middle Eastern Demand Profile pre FSRUs
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
May
-14
Jun-
14Ju
l-14
Aug-
14Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
n-15
Jul-1
5Au
g-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6Ap
r-16
May
-16
Jun-
16Ju
l-16
Aug-
16
Middle Eastern Demand (Mcm)
Dubai Kuwait
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 6
New Indian Ocean Demand
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
May
-14
Jun-
14Ju
l-14
Aug-
14Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
n-15
Jul-1
5Au
g-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5N
ov-1
5D
ec-1
5Ja
n-16
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6Ap
r-16
May
-16
Jun-
16Ju
l-16
Aug-
16
Demand from the Middle East and Pakistan (Mcm of gas)
Dubai Kuwait Egypt Jordan Pakistan
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 7
New Indian Ocean Demand
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000Middle Eastern and South Asian Demand (Mcm of gas)
India Dubai Kuwait Egypt Jordan Pakistan
Source: S&P Global Platts
Source: Platts. Private & Confidential. 8
Where is the supply coming from?
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 9
Qatari volumes increasingly staying in the regionSources of Supply
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2014 2015 2016
Qatari Exports to M.East and S. Asia - Sep to Aug - Mcm
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 10
Indian Ocean Demand meets Middle Eastern Supply
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000Middle East and South Asian Imports by source (Mcm gas)
Middle East Atlantic Pacific
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 11
Northeast Asian demand has been declining
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr-
14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-
15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct
-15
Nov
-15
Dec-
15
Jan-
16
Feb-
16
Mar
-16
Apr-
16
May
-16
Jun-
16
Jul-1
6
Aug-
16
Mcm
of
gas
LNG Deliveries to China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 12
More Asian Supply coming from the Pacific
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000Sources of Northeast Asian Supply by Region (Mcm of gas)
Atlantic Middle East Pacific
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
. Private & Confidential. 13
Push and Pull
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000Middle Eastern Exports (Mcm)
M. East & S. Asia Atlantic Asia
Source: S&P Global Platts
Private & Confidential. 14
M. Eastern demand also PULLING from different sources
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 15
Increase in Diversity of Supply
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000Indian Ocean Imports by source (Mcm of gas)
Qatar Nigeria Australia Equatorial Guinea
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 16
Increase in Diversity of SupplySources of Supply
2013 McmQatar 11,894
Nigeria 705 Yemen 453 Egypt 342
Algeria 87 Norway 85
2016 McmQatar 19,318
Nigeria 5,215 Australia 1,910
E. Guinea 1,743 Trinidad 1,348 Oman 767
Netherlands 549 USA 489
France 365 Norway 348 Belgium 344 Angola 185
Abu Dhabi 162 Singapore 94
Egypt 91 Spain 90
Malaysia 87 UK 83
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 17
M.E. and S.A Pull on European Reloads
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mcm
of g
as
NWE Re-exports
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 18
Majority of reloads now delivered to M.E and S.A.
South America(477 Mcm)
15%
M. East and S. Asia
(1,959 Mcm)64%
Far East (643 Mcm)21%
European re-exports for 2016
Source: S&P Global Platts
Private & Confidential. 19
Going forward…
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 20
• Jamaica – Golar Arctic FSU - 2016
• Malta – Waka Maru FSU - 2016
• Abu Dhabi – Excelerate – 2016
• Colombia – Hoegh Grace – 2016
• Ghana – Golar Tundra – 2017
• Pakistan – BW Integrity – 2017
• Egypt – Out to tender – 2017
Going forward…
Private & Confidential. 21
US LNG and Sabine Pass
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 22
Versatile supply - no restriction clause
Trains 1 and 2 - will add 9 mtpa to Atlantic capacity
Close to the Panama Canal, South America and Europe
Off takers: Cheniere, Shell, and recently Gas Natural
Sabine Pass – Key Facts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 23
Sabine Pass Exports
South America69%
Middle East12%
India 8%
Southeast Europe7% F. East
4%
Sabine Pass Exports by Destination
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 24
• Mainly flowing to South America and Indian Ocean
• With only one delivered to the Far East so far
• And two cargoes delivered to Southwest Europe
• None have yet come to Northwest Europe – as is widely expected
US LNG Destinations
South America Middle East South Asia Southern Europe Far East
Argentina Brazil Chile DR Dubai Jordan Kuwait India Portugal Spain China Total
6 4 9 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 28
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 25
Volumes expected to come to Europe in the Fall
Henry Hub prices tend to remain flat or dip during this period
While NBP prices tend to rise in the lead up to winter
Less competition for cargoes during the shoulder months
US LNG
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 26
US LNG – Henry Hub
Source: S&P Global Platts
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
02/01 02/02 02/03 02/04 02/05 02/06 02/07 02/08 02/09 02/10 02/11 02/12
$/M
MB
tu
Month Ahead NYMEX Henry Hub Settlement Prices
2013201420152016
Henry Hub prices tend to remain flat or dip in the fall
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 27
US LNG – NBP
Source: S&P Global Platts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/M
MB
tu
Platts asseessed NBP Month Ahead Forward Prices
20122013201420152016
While NBP prices tend to pick up into the fall
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 28
NBP vs. Delivered US LNG
Source: S&P Global Platts at August 18
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Q1
96% NBP Forward Prices vs Sabine Pass Delivered Cargoes ($/MMBtu)
115% HH+Shipping 96% NBP
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 29
Sabine Pass Pricing Model
Fixed fee regardless of whether you lift or not. (Shell - $2.25/MMBtu) Considered as sunk cost
115% Henry Hub 115% of the final settlement price for the NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures
contract for the month in which the relevant cargo is scheduled
US LNG – Some background Henry Hub
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 30
NBP Forward
96% NBP
HH Forward 115% HH
115% HH+Shipping Differential
Oct 4.59 4.40 2.93 3.37 3.85 0.73Nov 5.18 4.97 3.01 3.46 3.94 1.25Dec 5.46 5.24 3.20 3.68 4.16 1.30Jan 5.58 5.35 3.32 3.82 4.30 1.28Q1 5.58 5.35 3.05 3.50 3.98 1.59
US LNG – Differentials Widen into the Fall Forward prices
Source: S&P Global Platts at September 19
Private & Confidential. 31
However, for the time being…
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 32
• We have not seen any cargoes delivered to NWE
• Because premiums outside of Europe still strong enough to divert cargoes
• US volumes still mostly localized to South America
• With some of these using the Panama Canal for the journey
US LNG for the time being…
Private & Confidential. 33
The Panama Canal
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 34
• Most cargoes have gone to the Pacific Coast of the Americas• Only one cargo has made it all the way to the Far East• More recently two cargoes loaded in Peru and are crossing into the Atlantic
Panama CanalSo far…
Vessel Charterer Destination Cargo source Return voyageMaran Gas Apollonia Shell China Sabine Pass Not Applicable
British Merchant BP Mexico Atlantic LNG Returned to the Atlantic via canal
Maran Gas Delphi Shell Chile Sabine PassReturning to the Atlantic via Magellan
Sestao Knutsen Shell Chile Sabine Pass Returned to the Atlantic via canal
Gaslog Salem Shell Chile ArzewReturning to the Atlantic via Magellan
Oak Spirit Cheneire USA Unladen Not Applicable
Gaslog Saratoga Gas Natural Chile Sabine PassReturning to the Atlantic via Magellan
Methane Becki Anne Shell Trinidad Unladen Not Applicable
Galea Shell Spain Planta de Gas Melchorita Not Applicable
Madrid Spirit Shell Spain Planta de Gas Melchorita Not Applicable
Source: S&P Global Platts
Private & Confidential. 35
Going forward…
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 36
Panama CanalThe future
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Atlantic Deliveries to Manzanillo and Quintero (Mcm)
Source: S&P Global Platts
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 37
Less demand for Atlantic cargoes in the Pacific
Source: S&P Global Platts
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000Sources of Northeast Asian Supply by Region (Mcm of gas)
Atlantic Middle East Pacific
Natural Gas
Private & Confidential. 38
• Seeing the development of geographic localization
• Qatari volumes the moving away from the Pacific towards the new demand centres in the M. East and S. Asia
• US LNG and the Panama Canal mainly servicing the Latin American Markets closest to them
Main takeawaysImplications in the short term
We welcome your feedback
Luke StobbartSenior Pricing Specialist, Atlantic LNGS&P Global [email protected]