Lecture at the

Society for International Development

15 March 2010

Yvo de Boer

Executive SecretaryUNFCCC

Key development challenges• 25 000 People die of hunger or hunger-related causes every day

• 1.1 Billion people have inadequate access to water; 2.6 Billion people lack basic sanitation

• 1.6 Billion people — a quarter of humanity — live without electricity

• These existing stresses may be exacerbated by climate change

• Overriding concerns of developing countries: poverty eradication and sustainable development (impossible without reliable access to energy)

Warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years.

Source: IPCC 2007

Observed changes

Global average sea level

Northern hemispheresnow cover

Global average temperature

Source: IPCC 2007

Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure 2008-2030

Biofuels$0.2 trillion

1% Upstream

Refining

TransportShipping & ports

Mining$5.9 trillion

23%

$5.1 trillion20%Power

$13.7 trillion53%

Generation

Transmission

Distribution

Upstream

T&D

LNG

52%

15%

33%

58%

9%

33%

79%

17%4%

86%

14%

Total investment = $25.6 trillion (in year-2008 dollars)

Gas

Oil

Coal$0.7 trillion

3%

Just over half of all energy-investment needs to 2030 are needed in the power sector, mainly in developing countries - Source: IEA 2009

Source: IEA 2009

World total primary energy demand up to 2030 (Reference scenario)

Mto

e Other renewables

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

WEO-2008 total

Global demand grows by 40% between 2007 and 2030, with coal use rising most in absolute terms

World total primary energy demand up to 2030 (450 scenario)

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

32%

36% Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Biomass

Other renewables

Share of zero-carbon fuels(right axis)

Source: IEA 2009

In the 450 Scenario, demand for fossil fuels peaks by 2020. By 2030 zero-carbon fuels make up a third of the world's primary sources of energy demand

Convergence of the energy and climate change agendas

Increased demand, dwindling fossil fuel resources and economic realities will lead to:

• decreased energy security

• increasing energy prices

• increased emissions from energy Addressing climate change, e.g. through energy efficiency or by increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix, will have a positive effect: • increased energy security

• decreased prices

• greater energy independence

• decreased emissions from energy

Share of global greenhouse gas emissions by major sectors (2005)

Global GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) in 2005

Transport14%

Other Fuel Combustion10%

Manufacturing/Constructio

n13%

Electricity/Heat31%

Industrial Processes5%

International Bunkers2%

Waste4%

Agriculture16%

Energy72%

Fugitive Emissions5%

Source: WRI

Climate change impacts

Poor and least developed regions:

• People exposed to increased water stress by 2020: » 12 to 81 million in Latin America» 75 to 250 million in Africa

• Possible yield reduction in agriculture:» 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia» 30% by 2080 in Latin America» 50% by 2020 in some African countries

Source: IPCC 2007

Climate change impacts

Europe:

• Inland and coastal flooding

• Health risks due to heat-waves

• Reduction of water availability and crop productivity in South Europe

• Species losses and reduced snow cover in mountains

Source: IPCC 2007

Stabilisation scenarios

3.2 – 4.0

2.8 – 3.2

2.4 – 2.8

2.0 – 2.4

Global mean temp.

increase (ºC)

2020 – 2060590 – 710

2010 – 2030535 – 590

2000 – 2020490 – 535

2000 – 2015445 – 490

Year CO2

needs to peak

Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO2-eq)

Source: IPCC 2007

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

• 194 Parties – near universal membership

• The ultimate objective of the Convention: “… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” (Art. 2)

The overarching themes in the intergovernmental climate change negotiations

Mitigation • Involves human interventions to reduce the sources of GHGs or enhance their sinks.

Adaptation: coping with climatic change – taking measures to reduce the negative effects, or exploit the positive ones, by making appropriate adjustments.

• Adaptation is inevitable • Developing countries will be most affected.

2007: Climate change science goes mainstream

• IPCC’s fourth assessment report: recognition that current efforts are not commensurate with the scale of the problem

• Mitigation: One IPCC scenario: industrialised countries to reduce by 25 – 40% below 1990 by 2020.

• Adaptation: options exist

• Recognition of the urgency to act;

• Huge political momentum and increased public awareness on climate change

The UN Climate Change Conference in Bali 2007

Launch of negotiations to respond to momentum of 2007: the Bali Road Map, which includes

• Convention negotiations: strengthen the international response up to and beyond 2012

• Negotiations on key building blocks: adaptation, mitigation, including REDD, technology, capacity building and finance

• On-going work, e.g. technology, adaptation

• Kyoto Protocol negotiations

• 2 Years of negotiations towards an “agreed outcome” in 2009

• no consensus on the legal nature of an “agreed outcome”

Different interests and concerns in the negotiations

• Developed countries: fear the price tag of action, loss of competitiveness and carbon leakage

• Developing countries: fear targets imposed through the backdoor

• Small Island developing countries: fear that too little ambition will lead to their demise

• Oil producing countries: fear the adverse effects of response measures

m

• ALBA countries: fear that a solution based on capitalist principles will not translate into a solution

The view of developing countries

Developing countries are hesitant to engage because:

• Targets have not been met by industrialised countries

• Finance has not been provided

• They fear that climate change action will constrain their economic growth

• There is a lingering suspicion towards the industrialised world

The UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen 2009

While disappointing to many, the conference was important because:

• It raised climate change policy to where it belongs: the highest political level;

• It advanced critical technical issues in the Bali Road Map negotiations

• It produced the Copenhagen Accord (not legally binding):

• A letter of political intent; 100+ countries have associated

• 2°C

• short-term and long-term finance

• a review by 2015

• targets; actions

Priorities during 2010

• Rebuild confidence in the process

• Progress is needed on finance:

• the 30 billion USD need to flow

• clarity needed on how to generate the 100 billion USD

• Clarity on what “legally binding” could entail

• Governments need to assess which points of convergence in the Accord could be used to conclude the Bali Road Map negotiations

The UN Climate Change Conference in Mexico 2010

• Objectives for Mexico need to take current political realities into account

• The needs of developing countries need to be addressed

1. Fully operational architecture that makes it possible for developing countries to act on climate change

• Needs to include many avenues for cooperation to make it work

2. Clear leadership by industrialised countries

3. Conclusion of the negotiations under the Bali Road Map

• Progress could lead to consensus to turn the outcome into a legal treaty in the future.

Avenues for cooperation through the climate change regime with adequate finance

Mitigation, e.g.:

• NAMAs;

•Technology mechanism to boost technology transfer;

• Capacity-building;

• REDD;

Adaptation, e.g.:

• Adaptation framework to support work at regional and national levels;

• Mechanisms to manage loss and damage, including insurance;

Avenues for cooperation: private sector involvement

• The private sector will be key in implementation

Directly through the climate change regime:

• Existing market mechanisms; new mechanisms

• Possibility of generating new funding

Outside the regime, but with benefits for the climate:

• Business is often driven by sustainability issues not directly perceived as climate related, but which: • cut operating costs, e.g. through energy efficiency standards

• share knowledge on sustainability in a globalised world

• are increasingly greening growth

• boost cooperation on green innovation

Avenues for cooperation: the development community

The development community needs to assist developing countries, especially LDCs, African countries and Small Island Developing States:

• identify the most pressing adaptation needs

• identify critical technology gaps for adaptation

• assist in implementing adaptation in the context of overall development strategies

• identify options to leap-frog emissions-intensive growth and assist in mitigation planning

• identify investment needs and technology gaps for mitigation

• assist in implementing mitigation actions

Thank you