LEAN ESTIMATION & PLANNING
IANCARROLL.COMImage credit: Trish2, http://trish2.deviantart.com/art/Crystal-Ball-1-48409990
@Caza_no7
IAN
CA
RR
OL
L.C
OM
ABOUT ME:I’m a Transformation Ninja, not an Agile Coach or a Project Manager
I run a Code Club every Tuesday afternoon teaching 9-11yr old kids how to code
Software Development is my life but I don’t code any more
@Caza_no7
LEAN ESTIMATION & PLANNING
IANCARROLL.COMImage credit: Trish2, http://trish2.deviantart.com/art/Crystal-Ball-1-48409990
@Caza_no7
PART 1
CONVERSATION #1
How long will it take?
CONVERSATION #1
How long will it take?
CONVERSATION #1
How long will it take?
CONVERSATION #2
THE MANAGER
THE DEVELOPER
Vs
How much will it cost?
Expected benefit? £ ______.__
Write down one form of benefit per
post-it note
Expected benefit? £ ______.__
Maximum investment?£ _____.__
ROI
1,000,000
250,000
1 x PM4 x Dev1 x BA1 x QA1 x UX
1 x PM1 x TL12 x Dev2 x BA2 x QA1 x UX1 x DBA
2 x Dev1 x BA/QA
£300/day/person
55 weeks
20 weeks
8 weeks
Maximum investment?£ _____.__250,000
10 Wks 20 Wks 30 Wks 40 Wks 50 Wks 60 Wks 70 Wks
Window of opportunity
HOW MUCH WILL IT COST?HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE?
WHAT IS IT?
PART 2
1Business Vision
2Customer Experience
3Technical Vision
4Story Writing
5Sizing
6Planning
INCEPTION / DISCOVERY
FEATURE 2FEATURE 1FEATURE 1 FEATURE 3 FEATURE 4 FEATURE 5 FEATURE 6
R1
R2
R3
R4
R 5
INCEPTION OUTPUT
SMALL MEDIUM LARGE X-LARGE
STORY SIZING
SMALL (1) MEDIUM (2) LARGE (4) X-LARGE (8)
VELOCITY ESTIMATION
2 WEEKS 2 WEEKS 2 WEEKS 2 WEEKS 2 WEEKS
2 WEEKS 2 WEEKS 2 WEEKS 2 WEEKS 2 WEEKS
8 7 9 8 99 7 1
013
9~9pts per 2 weeks, 116pts
total, how long?
1 x PM4 x Dev1 x BA1 x QA1 x UX
1 x PM1 x TL12 x Dev2 x BA2 x QA1 x UX1 x DBA
2 x Dev1 x BA/QA
£300/day/person
55 weeks
20 weeks
8 weeks
Maximum investment?£ _____.__250,000
10 Wks 20 Wks 30 Wks 40 Wks 50 Wks 60 Wks 70 Wks
Window of opportunity
Post inception view
GO OR NO GO?
DOING DONETO DO
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
# C
ard
s
Iteration # (1 week iterations)
Total Scope
Velocity
Estimated
Forecast
1/10/2
014
1/15/2
014
1/20/2
014
1/25/2
014
1/30/2
014
2/4/2
014
2/9/2
014
2/14/2
014
2/19/2
014
2/24/2
014
3/1/2
014
3/6/2
014
3/11/2
014
3/16/2
014
3/21/2
014
3/26/2
014
3/31/2
014
4/5/2
014
4/10/2
014
4/15/2
014
4/20/2
014
4/25/2
014
4/30/2
014
5/5/2
014
5/10/2
014
5/15/2
014
5/20/2
014
5/25/2
014
5/30/2
014
6/4/2
014
6/9/2
014
6/14/2
014
6/19/2
0140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Total Scopes-curve
VARIATION (RISK)
The Coin Game
Worker
Manager
WorkerManager
ManagerWorker
ManagerWorker
Customer
1
2 3
4
#NoEstimates
SUMMARY
OUTPUTVS
OUTCOME
IANCARROLL.COM@Caza_no7
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