Climate Action
European Biodiversity Conference, 9 December 2015 "Managing Europe's carbon stocks for climate resilience ecosystems" Press Club Brussels Europe (Rue Froissart, 95)
Land Use in the Paris climate Conference (COP21) Peter Wehrheim, European Commission, Head of Unit Directorate General for Climate Action
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Two issues
Land Use, agriculture and forestry in climate mitigation
From Kyoto to Paris: land use plays an increasingly important role
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1. Non-CO2 from agriculture (CH4, N2O) are part of EU‘s 2020 reduction commitment!
2. CO2 from agricultural soils and forestry is not included in 2020 climate target!
Agriculture, Forestry and climate
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Agriculture, Forests, Land Use(AFOLU): One fourth of global GHG emissions
Source: IPCC, 5th Assessment Report & New Climate Economy Report 2014
Land Use, agriculture and forestry in climate mitigation
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Why the role of forest/land is important for Climate Change ? Sources and removal of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (2004-2013)
Forests/land are part of the problem and part of the solution…
15.8±0.4 GtCO2/yr
44%
Remains in the atmosphere
Remains in the atmosphere Absorbed by forests
Absorbed by oceans
10.6±2.9
GtCO2/yr
29%
26%
9.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr
32.4±1.6 GtCO2/yr 91%
3.3±1.8 GtCO2/yr 9%
+
Fossil fuel emissions
Deforestation emissions (Global Carbon project 2014)
Land Use, agriculture and forestry in climate mitigation
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"Business as usual" projection of EU agriculture non-CO2 emissions into 2050
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current policy
Power Sector
Residential & Tertiary
Non CO2 Other Sectors
Industry
Transport
Non CO2 Agriculture
• Without further action agriculture emissions will grow in relative importance
• By 2050: third of total EU emissions, tripling its current share
Land Use, agriculture and forestry in climate mitigation
Climate Action
UNFCCC • Article 2: The ultimate objective of this Convention of the UN Convention on
Climate Change is a stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere within a timeframe, which ensures that food production is not threatened.
Kyoto:
Land use sector treated differently for developed and developing countries
Durban climate conference 2011 adopted rules (LULUCF) for land use for developed countries
Warsaw conference finalized rules on combatting tropical deforestation (REDD+) in developing countries
From Kyoto to Paris
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What is different to Kyoto? All countries set to contribute:
180 countries climate protection pledges
Source: Climate Action Tracker
INDCs – a good step forward 180 countries, ~95% of
emissions UNFCCC assessment: • "No action" scenario would
lead to 3.7 – 4.8°C rise • Delays lead to high mitigation
and adaptation costs • Can stay below 2°C and
maintain economic growth with global action and climate smart policies in all sectors
From Kyoto to Paris
The 2°C target
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Paris:
About 100 countries mention in their pledges (INDCs) a mitigation role for land use and agriculture
Estimated contribution from land use at global level is about 20-25% countries expect a significant contribution from land use
The pledges made are an important new source of LULUCF information.
Additional efforts to improve transparency are needed, as well as further guidance (from UNFCCC) to enhance the transparency on accounting rules for the land use sector.
From Kyoto to Paris
Climate Action
Conclusions
Role of agriculture, forestry and land
Acknowledgement of significant mitigation potential
From Kyoto to Paris
Basic rules related to land use/agriculture in (international) climate policies exists, but have to evolve further
Process to further improve the environmental integrity and transparency of land use sector – after Paris
Win-wins are available: e.g. soil carbon content, afforestation, agro-forestry
Enhanced financing for global climate-smart agriculture
Inside the EU
The Commission intends to present legislative proposal(s) on the inclusion of agriculture and LULUCF into the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework in 2016.
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Merci beaucoup!
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/
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Share of agriculture GHG emission in total emissions (excl. LULUCF) in the EU-28, 2012
Ireland Agriculture emissions >30%
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Possible to "square the circle"? Reconcile various objectives with each other?
Agriculture
& Foresty
Mitigate climate change
Protect biodiversity water, nat. resources
Maintain food security
Optimize farmers' incomes
Yes! identify win-win solutions, e.g. through increased resource efficiency, more integrated landscape
management
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EU28 land & agriculture emissions since 1990
CO2
Non-CO2
GHG emissions and removals as
reported under the UNFCCC
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Agreed headline targets 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy
2020
2030
New governance system + indicators
-20 % Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
20% Renewable
Energy
20 % Energy
Efficiency
- 40 % Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
27 % Renewable
Energy
27%* Energy
Efficiency
10 % Interconnection
15 % Interconnection
* To be reviewed by 2020, having in mind an EU level of 30%
EUCO 169/14 du 23/10/2014
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…while growing the economy is possible!
EU response
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Decoupling agricultural production from (non-CO2) GHG emissions is possible as well!
2. Agriculture and forestry in international climate change
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Regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting along with changes in the world economy.
Shift in global emissions
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EU Target: - 20%
ETS ESD: 28 MS
targets
Building
s Transport
Agriculture:
Non-CO2
emissions
(livestock and
fertilizer use)
Waste LULUCF Decision
Aforestation
Reforestation
Deforestation
Forest
Management
Cropland and
Grassland
Management, CO2
emissions
Wetland
Drainage and
Rewetting
Treatment of emissions from agricultural land use and forestry in the current EU climate policy
Decision 529/2013/EU: • CO2 emissions and removals • Accounting exercise • No inclusion in the 2020 ESD target • Improved information
EU response
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2030 Stakeholder consultation process
• Consultation ran from 26 March to 18 June 2015
• Available here: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/consultations/articles/0026_en.htm
• Launched in parallel with the 2030 effort sharing consultation
• Addressed to all stakeholders and experts in the field of agriculture and forestry: farmers, SMEs, farmers' associations, regulatory authorities, research institutions, citizens etc.
• Summary report of the consultation will be part of the Impact Assessment
• Stakeholder meeting: 2-day workshop in Sept 2015