Jurandir ZULLO JuniorJurandir ZULLO Junior [email protected]@cpa.unicamp.br
Effective use of agrometeorological Effective use of agrometeorological systems and informationsystems and information
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Presentation Outline
Brazilian Agricultural Zoning
Agrometeorological operational systems in Brazil – regional and national
Effects of climate change (IPCC) in Brazilian Agricultural Zoning
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Agricultural Zoning
Agribusiness GDP in 2003: US$ 165 billion (30% GDP - US$ 500 billion)
Agribusiness Exportations: US$ 30 billion (40%) 30% of jobs Grain production in 2003: 122 millions tons
Program coordinated by the Department of Agriculture and EMBRAPA (National Institute for Agricultural Research) since 1995
Federal Farm Credit PolicyUS$ 8 billion (US$ 2.5 billion for small farmers)
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Main Objective Decrease the climate risks
dry spells during flowering and grain-filling (60%) excessive rain during the harvest period (30%)
Product
Planting Calendars
Crops: Corn, Soybean, Beans, Rice (Wheat, Sorghum,
Fruits, Coffee)
Periods: Dekad (10 days), Oct to Dec (Jan to Dec)
Counties / Municipal districts
Macro-regions: Central, Southeast and South
(Northeast)
Risk: less than or equal to 20%
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
< 25%
25% - 50%50% - 75%
75% - 100%
Probability of 10-days dry spellsJanuary - BAHIA
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
< 25%
25% - 50%50% - 75%
75% - 100%
Probability of 10-days dry spellsFebruary - BAHIA
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Methodology
Simulation of cumulative water balance for different soil types, planting dates, cycle lengths, ground stations
Decision criteria / Risk Analysis:a) WRSI during reproductive stage Threshold Value
(80% of all simulated years) WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction IndexWRSI = actual / maximum evapotranspiration
b) Excessive rain during harvest50mm accumulated in 3 days of a 5-days period
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Preliminary Data Collection
Length of four growth stages (Initial, Vegetative, Reproductive and Maturity) for early and normal cultivars
Length of total growing period
Crop coefficient (Kc)
Soil water holding capacity
Rainfall
Evapotranspiration
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Initial
Stage
Vegetative Stage
Reproductive Stage
Maturity
Kc
LENGTH OF GROWTH STAGES
RAINFALL
CLIMATERISK ZONING
WRSI
PETCROP
COEFFICIENT
COMPUTE ZONING
CUMULATIVE WATER BALANCE
SOIL TYPE PLANTING
DEKAD
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
soybeansoybean
600.000 SIMULATIONS600.000 SIMULATIONS
corncorn
2.500.000 SIMULATIONS2.500.000 SIMULATIONSbeansbeans
500.000 SIMULATIONS500.000 SIMULATIONSricerice
400.000 SIMULATIONS400.000 SIMULATIONS
wheatwheat
450.000 SIMULATIONS450.000 SIMULATIONS
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Soybean
Early Cultivar
Clay Soil
Dekad: Oct, 1st
Goiás (341.000km2)
F AV O R Á V E L
D E S F AV O R Á V E L
I N T E R M E D I Á R I A
5 0 k m
|
_
_
||
|
Z O N E A M E N T O A G R O C L IM Á T IC O D A C U LT U R A D A SO JA N O E S TA D O D E G O IÁ S
C I C L O : P R E C O C E S O L O : T IP O 3 S E M E A D U R A : 0 1 /1 0 a 1 0 /1 0
M A A /F IN AT E C /E M B R A PA -C N P S o/D N A E E /IN M E T
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Soybean
Early Cultivar
Clay Soil
Dekad: Nov, 1st
Goiás (341.000km2)
F AV O R Á V E L
D E S F AV O R Á V E L
I N T E R M E D I Á R I A
5 0 k m
|
_
_
|||
Z O N E A M E N T O A G R O C L IM Á T IC O D A C U LT U R A D A SO JA N O E S TA D O D E G O IÁ S
C I C L O : P R E C O C E S O L O : T IP O 3 S E M E A D U R A : 0 1 /11 a 1 0 /11
M A A /F IN AT E C /E M B R A PA -C N PS o/D N A E E /IN M E T
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Soybean
Early Cultivar
Clay Soil
Dekad: Dec, 1st
Goiás (341.000km2)
F AV O R Á V E L
D E S F AV O R Á V E L
I N T E R M E D I Á R I A
5 0 k m
|
_
_
||
|
Z O N E A M E N T O A G R O C L IM Á T IC O D A C U LT U R A D A SO JA N O E S TA D O D E G O IÁ S
C I C L O : P R E C O C E S O L O : T IP O 3 S E M E A D U R A : 0 1 /1 2 a 1 0 /1 2
M A A /F IN AT E C /E M B R A PA -C N P S o/D N A E E /IN E M E T
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Soybean
Early Cultivar
Clay Soil
Dekad: Nov, 1st
Minas Gerais (588.000km2)
-
-
- - -
- -
-
-
-
-
50º 18 ' 44º 57 ' 39º 37 '
21º 55 '
18º 02 '
14º 10 '
40 km
C IC L O : P R E C O C E S O L O : T IP O 3 S E M EA D U R A : 01 /11 a 10 /11
M AA/FINATE C/EM B RAPA-CNPSo-CPAC/DNAEE /INM ET
F A V O R Á V E L
D E S F A V O R Á V E L
ZO NEAMENTO AG RO C LIMÁTIC O DA C ULTURA DA SO J ANO ESTADO DE MINAS G ERAIS
Soybean
Early Cultivar
Clay Soil
Dekad: Dec, 1st
Minas Gerais (588.000km2)
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
-
-
- - -
- -
-
-
-
-
50º 18 ' 44º 57 ' 39º 37 '
21º 55 '
18º 02 '
14º 10 '
40 km
C IC L O : P R E C O C E S O L O : T IP O 3 S E M EA D U R A : 01 /1 2 a 1 0/12
M AA/FINATE C/EM B RAPA-CNPSo-CPAC/DNAEE /INM ET
F A V O R Á V E L
D E S F A V O R Á V E L
ZO NEAMENTO AG RO C LIMÁTIC O DA C ULTURA DA SO J ANO ESTADO DE MINAS G ERAIS
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
www.inmet.gov.brwww.inmet.gov.br
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
www.agritempo.gov.www.agritempo.gov.brbr
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Soil Water Content – São Paulo – Sep/16 – Soil Water Content – São Paulo – Sep/16 – 20/200420/2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Soil Water Content – São Paulo – Oct/15 – Soil Water Content – São Paulo – Oct/15 – 19/200419/2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Maximum Temperature – São Maximum Temperature – São PauloPaulo
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Rainfall – São PauloRainfall – São Paulo
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Frost Risk – Frost Risk – ParanáParaná
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
www.cpa.unicampwww.cpa.unicamp.br.br
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Results
Organization of federal farm credit policy and
insurance
Decrease of agricultural losses due to climate events
(Insurance debt = US$ 637 million accumulated in 5
years)
Even self-financed farmers are using the zoning
Increase: productivity, production and use of
technology
Losses of US$ 33 millions in 2002: farmers growing
corn during fall and winter in unsuitable (high risk)
areas
Frauds decrease and inhibition
Availability of data for agricultural planning
Demand for new crops, regions and periods
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Questions
What can happen to agricultural zoning in next decades ?
Will the suitable areas change in the case of new climate conditions ? (decrease ?, increase ?, migrate ?)
Methodology
Prepare new zonings simulating different climate conditions according to IPCC report (2001)
Climate scenarios: Current, Increase of 1°C, 3°C and 5.8°C in Temperature and Increase of 15% in precipitation
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Climate Conditions Suitable for Coffee Production
Average Annual Temperature: 18°C to 22°C (up to 23°C)
Annual Water Deficit: 0mm to 100mm (up to 150mm)
Absolute Minimum Temperature: > 1°C (Frost Risk)
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Total Area: 249.000km2
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Total Area: 249.000km2
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Total Area: 249.000km2
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Total Area: 249.000km2
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Further Works
Simulations for other crops
Simulations for other states
Use of other models and analysis of climate
change
Assessment of climate change
Jurandir ZULLO JuniorJurandir ZULLO Junior [email protected]@cpa.unicamp.br
Effective use of agrometeorological Effective use of agrometeorological systems and informationsystems and information
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 200418, 2004
Agricultural Losses - Seasons 91/92 and 92/93Crop S. PAULO BAHIA NORTHEAST
Rice 30% 34% 47%
Beans 21% 34% 41%
Corn 16% 37% 71%
Soybean 16% 29% -
I rrigated Soybean
- - 32%
Cotton 22% 22% 81%
Factors / causes:
Dry spells during reproductive stage (flowering and grain-filling) - 60%
Excessive rain during harvest - 30%
(Planting after the first rainfalls of spring)
Recommended