Is Sustainable Development Feasible? including (maybe)
Hurricane Katrina: a development failure?
Dr John C Mutter
The world is "The world is "on an on an unsustainableunsustainable trajectorytrajectory. . Politics is centralPolitics is central but we but we have almost no politics on this issue. have almost no politics on this issue. We're fighting all the wrong wars. We We're fighting all the wrong wars. We haven't even started to fight the wars on haven't even started to fight the wars on poverty, disease, and environmental poverty, disease, and environmental degradation”degradation”
J.D. Sachs 2006J.D. Sachs 2006
the “the “gap between science and society is gap between science and society is profound and extraordinarily dangerous profound and extraordinarily dangerous ... ... These [issues of sustainability] are scientific These [issues of sustainability] are scientific problems first and foremost. We will require problems first and foremost. We will require massive improvements in science and massive improvements in science and technology and their applications, if nine technology and their applications, if nine billion people are to live better lives. billion people are to live better lives.
Without improvements, we'll have war and Without improvements, we'll have war and violence and benighted global disarrayviolence and benighted global disarray ."."
By By developmentdevelopment we mean we mean
….the challenge of spreading social, political and economic opportunity to the entire global community, particularly the poorest of the poor.
By By sustainablesustainable we mean …. we mean ….
……managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate.
The divide The divide todaytoday
richrich poorpoor
GNP PPP/personGNP PPP/person $26,320$26,320 $4,450$4,450
population population (billion)(billion)
1.21.2 5.35.3
% increase/year% increase/year 0.10.1 1.51.5
% with HIV/AIDS% with HIV/AIDS 0.50.5 1.41.4
infant mortality infant mortality raterate
6/10006/1000 59/100059/1000
children/womanchildren/woman 1.61.6 3.03.0
life expectancylife expectancy 7676 6565
% urban% urban 7676 4141
people/kmpeople/km22 2424 6464
Global GDP per capita for the last 3000 yrs
Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted
Territory displayed in proportion to GDP
GDP Wealth
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
China’s wealth doubles every 7 yrsIndia’s wealth doubles every 10 yrs
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
Wealth increases
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
China’s wealth doubles every 7 yrsIndia’s wealth doubles every 10 yrs
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
Wealth decreases
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
Living on less $10 a day
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
Living on less $1 a day
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
Disasters and the poorest
Does this have to be?
Kararo Ethiopia
Collecting water Collecting water near Kararo near Kararo EthiopiaEthiopia
Disasters and the poorest
Does this have to be?
Can our science help people like Can our science help people like this ……this ……
Kararo Kararo Village Village Ethiopia Ethiopia
Can our science help people like Can our science help people like this ……this ……
A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: three basic aspects of human development:
LONGEVITYLONGEVITY -- life expectancy at birth; -- life expectancy at birth;
KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;
STANDARD of LIVINGSTANDARD of LIVING -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, in US$).Parity, PPP, in US$).
HDIHDI is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income. is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income.
The UNDP Human Development Index (HDI)
Young female illiteracy
Growth in tertiary education
Scientific research output (publications)
Life expectancy at birth
Infant MortalityInfant Mortality
Infant mortality
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
Maternal mortality
HDI World distribution
Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate
Development decreases
(Source: www.worldmapper.org)
Territory displayed in proportion to wealth
GDP vs HDI
GDP
HDI
GDP per capita as a function of latitude.
Poverty has a latitudinal dependence
(J. Sachs)
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
HDI (1980-2000)
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
HDI lowest 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
HDI versus latitude
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
HDI (1980-2000)
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
HDI lowest 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
HDI versus latitude
Why th
is
slope?
What causes this development gap?
No chance correlationEnvironment mattersto human well being
Malthus was not entirely right
Malaria mortality
Regions burdened by malaria cannot achieve development
Bad governance is only part of the problem
Most conflict regions today are poor
Some corrupt countries do develop
CORRUPTION LEVELS COMPARABLE TO ASIA
Increasing Corruption Decreasing Corruption
Economic Growth1990-2003
Africa
Asia
Gha
naC
hina
Sen
egal
Rw
anda
Indi
aM
ali
Tan
zani
aM
alaw
i
Vie
tnam
Uga
nda
Cam
bodi
a
Eth
iopi
a
Indo
nesi
a
Ken
ya Pak
ista
n
Nig
eria
Ban
glad
esh
8.0
4.0
2.0
Post-cold war conflicts wrt GDP as of 2004
Most conflict regions today are poor
Conflict-related mortality
Regions in conflict cannot achieve development of any kind
Drought mortality
Africa remains almost the only place where drought kills
Drought in the Sahal
More than a decade of persistent drought in area like HoA
Climate variability and Malaria risk in Botswana
Conflict and Drought
Environmental stress > Scarcity > Conflict
Simple growth models
Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development
From Kiminori Matsuyama
Simple growth models
Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development
Richer countries
Poor countries
Poverty traps
Growth
Poverty TrapPoverty Trap
A self perpetuating condition in the economy of a country in which poverty becomes the driver of further poverty
Considered to be a low level equilibrium condition - a trap
Many environmental factors can lead to the creation of poverty traps
Poor countries are NOT embryonic rich countries waiting their turn; they have fundamentally different characteristics and must be treated differently
Poverty trap causesPoverty trap causes• Family child labor• Illiteracy• Debt bondage• Under-nutrition/illness• Low skill• High fertility• Subsistence• Farm erosion (soil depletion)• Common property mismanagement• Crime• Working capital• Mental health• Conflict• Gender inequality
Basic questions
Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development
Can growth be sustained ?
Can growth be achieved?
Can development be
achieved? Can development be sustained?
Can development be sustained?
By prefacing with By prefacing with sustainablesustainable,, we refer to the objective of we refer to the objective of managing the world’s development managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate. atmosphere and climate.
To do nothing more than close To do nothing more than close the development gap between the the development gap between the top and the bottom (no growth at top and the bottom (no growth at the top and no population the top and no population increase) would mean a increase) would mean a
4-fold4-fold increase in world economic increase in world economic output. output.
Add 1.5 billion people (3 Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and billion is more likely) and allow the top to continue to allow the top to continue to grow and prosper at current grow and prosper at current rates, then closing the rates, then closing the development gap requires a development gap requires a
6 -Fold6 -Fold
increase in world economic increase in world economic output. output.
BUT ……BUT ……
Economic optimists note that since the Economic optimists note that since the industrial revolution the world economic industrial revolution the world economic output has increased output has increased
40 Fold40 Fold (some say 50) (some say 50)
and population has increased only 4 Fold. and population has increased only 4 Fold.
So, on average, we are 10 times better off So, on average, we are 10 times better off than we were before the industrial than we were before the industrial revolution. revolution.
No problem!No problem!
But ……. the industrial era growth in But ……. the industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the great prosperity has been very uneven (the great divergence) and was achieved at a time divergence) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were when resources needed for growth were essentially limitless. essentially limitless.
Ample evidence now suggests that limits Ample evidence now suggests that limits are being approached and the ideal world are being approached and the ideal world
development may be unattainable.development may be unattainable.
Sustainability issuesSustainability issues
Hitting environmental boundary conditions that can turn off growth, perhaps very suddenly.
System is deeply interconnected and non-linear and likely has cascading multipliers -- tipping points
Limits may not signal their arrival -- collapse can be rapid with no precursor
Climate Change, Water, Food and Agriculture, Biodiversity
Energy, Urbanization, Population,
Ecological debtors and creditors
>50% in debt
> 50% in credit
Ecological footprint by region
Neutral
Water stress indicator
Carbon dioxide per capita 2002
Carbon dioxide emissions per capita 2002
Carbon dioxide per capita by country
Many measures of this sort abound in Many measures of this sort abound in the literature all of which imply the literature all of which imply that the developing world cannot that the developing world cannot catch up to the top billion along catch up to the top billion along the pathway that got us here without the pathway that got us here without very alarming consequences for the very alarming consequences for the
future of the planet.future of the planet.
Basic questions
Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development
Can growth be sustained ?
Can growth be achieved?
Can development be
achieved? Can development be sustained?
Can development be sustained?
1. Disease Ecology Depends on Economics
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
2. Economics Depends on Disease Ecology
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
PovertyTrap
Economic Growth
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
PovertyTrap
Economic Growth
Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases
… forms poverty trap
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
The human health poverty trapThe human health poverty trap
Poor people are at greater risk of ill healthand …
… poor health increases the likelihood of becoming poor.
Establishes a self-perpetuating state that differs from health issue for the rich