Budapest 27-29 September 2007 – Retreat on Technology Foresight for high level Decision makers 1
Introduction to Foresight
Retreat on Technology Foresight for High-level Decision MakersBudapest, 27-29 September 2007
Philine Warnke, Cristiano CagninEuropean Commission JRC IPTS
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Outline
Foresight
• what it is• what the benefits are• what it can do for policy• when it is applied• what it does look at• how to get it going
Digging Deeper…Quick tour
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Foresight
• what it is
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Where are we now?
How do we get there? Where do we want to go?
How things may develop?
How can we prepare?
policy makerscompany managers
citizens researchers
NGOs unionsassociations consumers
panelssurveysscenarios roadmaps
StakeholdersStakeholders
debating the Futuredebating the Future
in a structured wayin a structured way
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Examples:
Romanian Researchers, managers, policy makers debating:Knowledge Society 2020 – what does it imply for Romania? What should be Romanian Research priorities? What kind of RDI system do we want to have in 2020? How to overcome skill shortages?
European manufacturing actors debating:Will there be production in Europe in 2020? What if people start fabbingtheir own products? What if nanotechnology allows for manufacturing atom by atom? Will factories be run without people? How will we organise manufacturing if everybody needs to take care of children or elderly half of their time? What if zero waste becomes mandatory? What kind of research do we need now to be prepared?
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Foresight
• benefits
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Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future
Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future
InsightsAbout the future
InsightsAbout the future
RelationsWith respect to future
RelationsWith respect to future
AttitudesTowards the future
AttitudesTowards the future
produces changes
•Networks•Linkages•Common ground•Shared perspectives•Joint visions
•Networks•Linkages•Common ground•Shared perspectives•Joint visions
•Long term thinking•Awareness of challenges•Foresight & learning culture
•Long term thinking•Awareness of challenges•Foresight & learning culture
•Dynamics of change•New perspectives•Future risks & opportunities• Strategic options• System capabilities• Stakeholders views
•Dynamics of change•New perspectives•Future risks & opportunities• Strategic options• System capabilities• Stakeholders views
Being better prepared for the futureBeing better prepared for the future
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Foresight
• what it can do for policy
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Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future
Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future
InsightsAbout the future
InsightsAbout the future
RelationsWith respect to future
RelationsWith respect to future
AttitudesTowards the future
AttitudesTowards the future
produces changes
Strategic intelligence as a base for better decisions and
strategies
Strategic intelligence as a base for better decisions and
strategies
Changes in society for better policy implementationChanges in society for better policy implementation
Changes in policy process for better decision makingChanges in policy process for better decision making
Foresight Policy Benefits
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Actors
Policy
Actors
InsightsInsights
Actors
Better decisions
Foresight DialogueForesight Dialogue
Better decision making
Better implementation due to betterresponsiveness of actors
Foresight policy benefits
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Foresight feeding into policy making stages
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Evaluation
Agenda-setting
FORESIGHT
Policy definition
Learning
Implementation
Understanding of changes
Responsiveness of the system
New ideas
Legitimacy, transparency
VisionsPolicy options
New policy configurations
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Foresight
• when it is applied
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Typical situations of Foresight for policy support
• challenges faced by territories (regions, countries, cities etc.): decline of key industrial sector, relocation, accession to EU, coastal flooding
• decisions that need to be backed up by stakeholders to be successful: priority setting for research, innovation, regional development
• decisions with deep or long-term impact: infrastructure, transport, healthcare reorganisation
• need to prepare for emerging phenomena with disruptive potential & high uncertainty: climate change, knowledge society, globalisation, demographic change, immigration, nanotechnology, hydrogen society
• need for enhancement of innovation capability
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Foresight
• what does it look at?
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Basic types of dialogue in a Foresight exercise
Diagnosis Prognosis Prescription
Understanding where we are…
Exploringwhat could happen…
Debating what we would like to happen …
Deciding what should be done …
Structured stakeholder dialogue
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Society
Economy
Technology
Today
Plausible Future 2
Plausible Future 1
Relevant challenges forarea under consideration
Foresight looks at the interplay of technology, society and economyenquiring how it may lead to differentfutures thatpose differentchallenges and demand differentstrategies to pursuedifferent visions
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Example: Nordic Hydrogen Energy Foresight
Society
Economy
Technology
H2
Political Landscape
Concentration of BusinessPrevailing Mode of innovation
Energy sector developments
Mobility patterns
Lifestyle (housing)
Hydrogen technology
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Digging Deeper: Outline
Foresight basic concept
• Stakeholder dialogue? • why structured dialogue?• how to structure futures dialogue?• Why looking at different futures?
Foresight policy benefitsForesight for Innovation
Quick tour Hold on a minute …Looking a bit deeper …
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Where are we now?
How do we get there? Where do we want to go?
How things may develop?
How can we prepare?
policy makerscompany managers
citizens researchers
NGOs unionsassociations consumers
panelssurveys
scenarios roadmaps
Foresight
StakeholdersStakeholders
debating the Futuredebating the Future
in a structured wayin a structured way
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Digging Deeper
• stakeholder dialogue
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Why involve stakeholders?
• Crucial part of Foresight benefits arise through change of attitudes and relations within the debate
• Collective intelligence needed to envisage possible futures
• Diversity of viewpoints needed for debate on desirable futures
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Digging Deeper
• why structured dialogue?
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Foresight applies formal methods structuring the dialogue on the future in order to:
• create adequate type of insights• bring things together: create collective intelligence out of diversity of
viewpoints & first rate expertise• enforce long-term perspective• break out of the box: avoid extrapolation of present, envisage also
disruptive change• identify relevant changes that it is worth preparing for: capture the
dynamics of a system through rigidity of analysis• foster creativity
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Digging Deeper
• how to structure a futures dialogue
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Basic types of dialogue in a Foresight exercise
Each type of dialogue calls for– specific methods structuring the debate– specific participants in the dialogue
Need to tailor approach to objectives in each phase
DiagnosisUnderstanding where
we are…
PrognosisForesighting
what could happen…
PrescriptionDebating what we would like
to happen
Deciding what should be done …
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Tailoring participation
• Participation takes many forms and shapes such as:• Wide participation of civil society • Involvement of relevant innovation actors• Involvement of high-level representatives from a small number of key
stakeholder groups• Involvement of a key experts with different backgrounds
Need to find adequate expertise and relevant stakeholders in order to fulfil objectives in each phase …
• Also to be considered …• Cultural context• Resources (participation costs time and money !)
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Structuring Future Dialogue
Examples
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Structuring Dialogue on Diagnosis:Assessing key factors influencing manufacturing future
Uncertainty Importance
Stakeholder participation
Mobility
Public attitudes
Cultural diversity
Public concerns (privacy)
Individualisation
New consumer needs
Risk adversity
New skill requirements
Life-long learning
Ageing workforce
Consumer “schizophrenia”
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concerted
SustainableTimes
LocalStandard
GlobalEconomy
Focus Europe
collectiveindividual
loose
public values and consumer behaviour
inte
grat
ion
of S
D-
rele
vant
pol
icie
s
concerted
SustainableTimes
LocalStandard
GlobalEconomy
Focus Europe
collectiveindividual
loose
public values and consumer behaviour
inte
grat
ion
of S
D-
rele
vant
pol
icie
s
Structuring Dialogue on Exploration: Scenario Debate
CitizenLeadership
Chemical industry outlook: RTDdriven by global competition andinternal pressures rather thanregulation. RTD priorities reflectshort- and medium goals sinceconcerted policy support for long-term initiatives is lacking.
Structuring Dialogue on Prescription: Assessment of visions *
*User involvement in furniture industry
Structuring Dialogue on Prescription:Identifying enablers*
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Digging Deeper
• Why looking at different futures?
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(The cost of not) considering alternative futuresfrom Prof. Ron Johnston, Australian Centre for Innovation, Sydney, Australia
•This "telephone" has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us. (Western Union internal memo, 1876)
•The horse is here to stay, the automobile is a novelty. (Michigan Bank manager to Henry Ford, 1908)
•Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? (Jack Warner, 1930)
•There would be a global demand for perhaps five computers. (Thomas Watson, IBM, 1943)
•Guitar music is on the way out. (Decca Records rejecting Beatles, 1962)
•If anything will remain unchanged, it is the role of women (David Riesman, 1967)
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Foresight
• what (else) it can do for policy
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Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future
Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future
InsightsAbout the future
InsightsAbout the future
RelationsWith respect to future
RelationsWith respect to future
AttitudesTowards the future
AttitudesTowards the future
produces changes
Strategic intelligence as a base for better decisions and
robust strategies
Strategic intelligence as a base for better decisions and
robust strategies
Changes in society for better policy implementationChanges in society for better policy implementation
Changes in policy process for better policy makingChanges in policy process for better policy making
Foresight policy benefits
New configurationsNew configurationsEmbedding participationEmbedding participation
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Foresight Policy Benefit: Embedding participation• Increase the transparency of policy-making process• Improve the legitimacy of policy-making process• Building policy on societal debates
“A new infrastructure for participatory democracy”
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Foresight Policy Benefit: Reconfiguration of the policy system
New configurations of policy-making bodies around new conceptualisations of topics– e.g. establishment of linkages between ministries
Better ability to address future challenges
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Digging Deeper
• Foresight for Innovation
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Foresight for Innovation
Rationale: Enhance innovation system quality through Foresight benefitsIn particular:
• New combinations of elements (realms of knowledge etc.)• New (unusual) network links• Trust between IS actors• Knowledge flows within IS• Mediation between users and providers of innovation• Capability to learn and change (=innovate)• Distributed (anticipatory) intelligence
Foresight functions as a systemic innovation policy instrument complementing classical supply or demand oriented steering instruments such as direct R&D support or public procurement. It can be a valuable element of cluster policy or regional innovation system approach
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Thank You!
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Foresight
• how to get it going
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To get it going as a policy maker you need to:
• carefully think what you want to get out of it and whether Foresight is really what you need• find a competent managing team which in turn will get in touch with core stakeholders to kick start the scoping of the Foresight• engage into a dialogue with the team to scope the exercise• provide adequate resources• participate in the exercise as required• support the team in embedding the exercise into decision making process (link with other ministries, planning processes etc.)•back up the team to create legitimacy
•... make use of the outcomes and Enjoy the experience ☺
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Doing Foresight - special challenges
•Designing participation•Choosing methods
Budapest 27-29 September 2007 – Retreat on Technology Foresight for high level Decision makers 45Tailoring Phases to Functions
Type of Dialogue
Type and levelparticipation
A few decision-makers
Wide societal debate
with citizens
Stakeholder
debate
Debating choices Measures, actionsDiagnosis Exploring possible futures
Expertise
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Three major challenges
• Define adequate level of Participation• Identify relevant stakeholder groups• Identify relevant expertise
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Challenge: “relevant” stakeholdersIdeally all actor groups concerned with the issues under debate (i.e.
stakeholders) should be involved but a special effort is needed to identify these groups
Consider not only present but also future stakeholders (e.g. newsector configurations)“Ordinary citizens” may be stakeholders i.e. affected by changePolicy makers are stakeholders but their involvement needs to becarefully considered and designedObjectives (intangible outcomes) may demand certain stakeholders to be included (e.g. citizens, users, policy makers …)
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Challenge: “relevant” expertise
To achieve a holistic perspective in the dialogue expertise is needed in all aspects identified as relevant for change
To be considered:in some cases deep understanding needed in others broad overviewover a field“Ordinary citizens” may be experts (e.g. about use of technology)social scientists needed to understand societyNot every stakeholder is an expert
Budapest 27-29 September 2007 – Retreat on Technology Foresight for high level Decision makers 49General criteria for selection of participants
• Diversity/Balance: professional/institutional background, sector, value chain position, thinker vs. actor, age, gender …
• Commitment: willing to invest time and energy• Open mindedness: able and willing to
– step back from their organisation's viewpoint– consider other standpoints and perspectives– look beyond their own field of expertise– think “out of the box”