I ti fInnovating from a Legacy Platform
Jack Shaw (@jackshaw)(@j )April 17, 2012
A View of the Future
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The Queen Elizabeth
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Boeing 707
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A Valuable Legacy, but…
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An Extinct Species?
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Homo COBOLProgrammerensis as spotted on a System 390 in 1999.
The First Four Waves of Business Technologygy
Mainframe Internet
2000s
PC Client/Server
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60s – 70s 2000s80s 90s
Each Wave of Business Technologygy
• Requires deployment of a critical mass of its predecessor wave to achieve rapid growth and broad acceptance.
• Has an exponentially greater impact on business and society than its predecessor.
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20th Century Computing
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21st Century Computing
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Something Remarkable in 2011
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The Worst Technology PredictionsThe Worst Technology Predictions…
EVER!EVER!
No Need for Phones
"Th A i h"The Americans have need of the t l h b t dtelephone, but we do not. We have plenty
f b "of messenger boys." – Sir William P hi fPreece, chief engineer, British P t Offi 1876
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Post Office, 1876
Global Internet Users will Double –and most will be Mobile
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Explosive Growth of Tablets
• 2011 Worldwide tablet sales were about 63.6 million units, a63.6 million units, a
• 261.4% increase from 2010 sales of 17.6 million units, according to Gartner, Inc. , g ,
• Tablet sales will experience strong growth through 2015 when sales are forecast to reach 326.3 million units.
• 2015 PC market will be only just ahead at 535 million units.
• Tablets alone are going to have effective
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parity with PCs within 4 – 5 years.
Consumerization of IT
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Ubiquitous Computing
“Ubiquitous computing is inevitable.” Within the next few years, you won't be anywhere that
hyou won't have access to any data plus massive computational capabilities ”computational capabilities.
— Bill Wulf, President
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US National Academy of Engineering, 2002
Cloud Computing
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$11B $30B in 5 Years!
• Market research firm IDC• Market for public cloud IT servicep• Expected to grow at an average rate of
21.6% between 2009 and 201421.6% between 2009 and 2014• Reaching almost $30 billion.
Th t t f b t• That compares to revenue of about $11 billion in 2009.
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6 Ways Cloud Computing Will Change Businessg
• A new generation of products and services.
• More tolerance for innovation and
i t ti f• The rise of new industry leaders and IT vendors.
experimentation from businesses.Th l i• Reconciliation of SOA
with the cloud and other • The slow-moving,
dinosaur firms will h t bl k inew IT models.
• More self-service IT
have trouble keeping up with more nimble adopters and fast
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from the business-side. adopters and fast-followers.
Breakthrough Technologies Timeline
MobileCloud
InternetWWW
Cloud
Past Recent Past Immediate Future Intermediate Future
WWWe-Commerce
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2000 2010 – 2011 2012 – 2013 2015
Fasten Your Seatbelts
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No Future In Television
"Television won't be able to hold onto any market it capturesmarket it captures after the first six months. People will
t ti d fsoon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." --y gDaryl Zanuck, film producer, co-founder of 20th Century Fox
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of 20th Century Fox
The Fifth Wave
Mainframe Intelligent SystemsInternetPC Client/Server
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60s – 70s 2010s2000s80s 90s
Big data—a growing torrent
• $600 to buy a disk drive that can store all of the world’s music
• 5 billion mobile phones in use in 2010 • 30 billion pieces of content shared on Facebook every30 billion pieces of content shared on Facebook every
month • 40% projected growth in global data generated per year
vs.vs. • 5% growth in global IT spending • 235 terabytes data collected by the US Library of
Congress by April 2011Congress by April 2011 • 15 out of 17 sectors in the United States have more data
stored per company than the US Library of Congress
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Source: McKinsey Global Institute, “Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity”
Big Data
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Business Decisions
"Most discussions of decision making assume that only senior executives make d i i h l idecisions or that only senior executives' decisions matter. This is a dangerous mistake ”This is a dangerous mistake.— Peter Drucker
Peter Drucker, "What Makes an Effective Executive," Harvard Business Review Vol 82 No 6
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Business Review, Vol. 82, No. 6, June 2004
Decision Management
Decision Management (DM) is a systematic approach to automateDecision Management (DM) is a systematic approach to automate and improve decisions across the enterprise.
It allows businesses to:
Make more profitable and targeted
decisions
In the same way, over and over again
While being able to adapt “on-the-fly”
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PRECISION CONSISTENCY AGILITYFAST LOW COST
Beyond BI & Data Warehousing
“B i I t lli ” i t ti• “Business Intelligence” is retrospective.– Looking at historical data for trends– BI systems designed for:y g
• Occasional• Low volume • Manual use
T i d• Trained experts• Decision Management is forward looking.
– Continuous– Real-time– High Volume– Operational decisions
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Operational decisions– Existing staff
The Limits Of PC Memory
"No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody."
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computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody. –Bill Gates, co-founder and Chairman of Microsoft
Breakthrough Technologies Timeline
“Big Data”Decision Management
CloudMobile
g
InternetWWW
Mobile
WWWe-Commerce
Past Recent Past Immediate Future Intermediate Future
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2000 2010 – 2011 2012 – 2013 2015
DM and Intelligent Systems
• Implementing DM means automating (some) decisions, BUT
• Gaining the full benefits of DM means automating many decisions.
• While some decisions can be automated using just simple, “If, Then, Else” program logic,just simple, If, Then, Else program logic,
• Many more decisions can be automated by using intelligent systems technologies
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using intelligent systems technologies.
Intelligent Systems Technologies
B i R l M t S t• Business Rules Management Systems• Constraint Programming• Optimization Algorithms• Pattern RecognitionPattern Recognition• Predictive Analytics
B i B li f N t k• Bayesian Belief Networks• Case Based Reasoning
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• Cognitive Systems
What Cognitive Systems Do
• Capture the Knowledge of Human Experts in Knowledge Bases
• Uses Knowledge in Knowledge Bases to – Reason about information flowing through the system
h h b i il– In the same ways that experts reason about similar information.
• Works 24 X 7• Works 24 X 7• Never forgets anything relevant• Can “think” 10 000 times faster than people
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• Can think 10,000 times faster than people.
Autonomous Systems
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Watson –and the Jeopardy Challenge p y g
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Business Impact of Cognitive Systemsg y
• Expert analysts assessed the threat risks of certain individualsthe threat risks of certain individuals based a few dozen queries in an average of one hour
• Now Cognitive System makes the same assessmentsb d 10 000 ibased on over 10,000 queries in an average of one minute.
• Result:• Result:• Higher Accuracy
Fewer False Positives or Negatives
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– Fewer False Positives or Negatives • Productivity of Analysts increased 50 Times!
Inevitable Surprises
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Breakthrough Technologies Timeline
Probabilistic Reasoning
“Big Data”Intelligent
Cognitive Systems
CloudMobile
gDecision Management
InternetWWW
Mobile
WWWe-Commerce
Past Recent Past Immediate Future Intermediate Future
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2000 2010 – 2011 2012 – 2013 2015
Burj Khalifa – Dubai
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A Valuable Legacy – Modernized!
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Last Mainframe Unplugged?
“The last mainframe“The last mainframe will be unplugged by 1996 "by 1996." – 1991
Stewart AlsopEdit i Chi f
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Editor-in-ChiefInfoWorld
Homo COBOLProgrammerensis
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Homo COBOLProgrammerensis as spotted on a System 390 in 1999.
The Natural Environment forH. Cobolprogrammerensis
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H. Cobolprogrammerensis toH. Generalprogrammerensisp g
• COBOL developers can no longer be ONLY COBOL developersCOBOL i l d i• COBOL programming roles tend to require business awareness skills as well as programming language expertiselanguage expertise.
• MUST separate presentation logic (UI) and business codeand business code.
• Integration is a major strength of COBOLComposite Applications: Java XML SOA
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– Composite Applications: Java, XML, SOA
Why Modernize?
I di l ld d• Immediate access to real world data• To integrate with third parties web applications• To interface with Mobile apps• To interface with Cloud• To integrate with packages for Data Analytics,
BI, and Decision ManagementThe Result:• Significant reduction in mainframe costs
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Significant reduction in mainframe costs • Soaring customer satisfaction levels
New Pastures for Hunting Its Natural Prey*y
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*The Bug
Time for Change
• It’s not enough to accept changeaccept change
• It’s not even enough to embrace change
You’ve got to SEEK OUT change.
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g g
Change & Progress
“Change does not necessarily yassure progress, but progressbut progress implacably
i h ”requires change.”
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Historian Henry Steele Commager
Follow Up
• Jack Shaw, PresidentBreakthrough Business Technologies
• M: 770-910-5969M: 770 910 5969• [email protected]• www.e-com.com• www gplus to/JackShaw• www.gplus.to/JackShaw• www.Twitter.com/JackShaw• www.YouTube.com/user/JackShaw4728• www facebook com/JackShawTechnology• www.facebook.com/JackShawTechnology• www.LinkedIn.com/in/JackShawTechnology• www.BusinessTechnologyFuturist.WordPress.com
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