1
Cabinet Meeting Document on Monthly Economic Reports, etc. (21 July & 10 Aug 2010, Cabinet Office )
Industrial Production decreased in June
2007 2008 2009 2010
Stock
inventory rate
Production
Shipment
Production growth becoming moderate
Transition of major industries
electric parts/devices
ITmachinery
General machinery
% vs previous year
Steel
Planned business investment in increase trend for the first time in 3 years
Transport machinery
Production industry
1st half 2nd half 1st half 2nd half
Rates of production, shipment and inventory (2005 =100)
Trends of Domestic Production
2
Compared to 2007, production volume in 2009 was -19%, and shipment volume was –18%; which were –8% respectively compared with 2008.
2) Paint Shipment
FY2006
FY2007
FY 2008
FY2009
1. Japan (domestic market)
Production Volume Shipment VolumeThousand ton Thousand ton
FY2006
FY2007
FY 2008
FY2009
3
Shipment Value of FY2009 was –15% against FY2007.
=> It was –9% against FY2008. Quantity of inventory was unable to be adjusted at steep fall in 2008, but now, it is within normal range.
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
Shipment Value Quantity of inventory
FY2006
FY2007
FY 2008
FY2009
4
(1) JPMA Paint Shipment Vol. forecast and actual figure
JPMA Forecast
Actual Figure/ Chemical Industry Statistics
JPM
A F
orecast
2007 shipment volume = 100.
With the cooperation of JPMA member companies, JPMA forecasted shipment volume.FY2008 forecast of –8% against 2007 resulted –11%, and FY2009 forecast of –15% against FY2007 resulted in –18%.
4) Future Paint Demand Forecast
JPM
A F
orecast
JPM
A F
orecast
Actual F
igure
Actual F
igure
5
(2) FY2010 Paint Demand Forecast (JPMA, March 2010)
JPMA Paint Demand Forecast (issued on March 2010, by the effort of JPMA members) stated 101.1% of FY2009 expected actual figure.
JPMA forecast of paint production volume for FY2010 is 1.434 million tons (101.1% vs FY2009, and 83.1% vs FY2007,) based on various economic forecast issued by government and private bodies, trends of major user industries, and JPMA members' industrial condition perspectives.
DemandCategory
Volume Forecast(1000tons)
vs Priviousyear (%) Basis of calculation
Buildings 364 99.2Slow recovery trend. Private demand is still sluggish, butactivation of re-painting market is expected.
ConstructionMaterials
72 100Slow recovery trend. No-tax cases increasing, housingfinancial benefits, housing eco-points.
Structuress 76 98.7Continous declining trend due to reduced publicconstructions. Private plant refinish is expected.
Marine Use 111 92.5Sluggish due to decrease of new ship construction andcontinuous shrinking trend of the domestic demand.
Motor Vehicles New
226 109.7Compared to worst period of last FY, demand increasedowing to gradual recovery of Auto sales environment.
Refinish 51 100 Slow recovery base, but starting to level.ElectricalAppliances
67 106.3It will be better than last FY, but no great increase.
IndustrialMchinery
58 118.4Demand of construction machinery has increasedmainly in China.
MetallicProducts
97 105.4Slight increase of demand owign to recovery of corporateprofit.
Woodenproducts
26 92.9Further decline of demand due to pull back trend ofconsumers.
DIY Use 25 92.6Further decline of demand due to pull back trend ofconsumers.
Exports 84 101.2 Oversea demand is increasing, especially in AsiaRoad Marking 73 93.6 Less demand due to smaller budget for road works.Others 104 98.1 Gradual recovery in each area.Total 1434 101.1 As a whole, gradual recovery trend.
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(3) Forecast of this year and the next year (Monthly Cabinet Report)
Growth rate of developed areas are expected to be 1-3%, Emerging / Developing areas: 4-10 %
Economic perspective of Developed Areas
USA Japan Euro area UK
AprilApril
JulyJuly
Economic perspective of Emerging/ Developing Areas
China India Brazil Russia
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B) Near Future Paint Production Forecast (Private Opinion)
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2030
Production Volume(Million ton)
Recovery/Development 2% per year
Recovery/Development 1% per year
Decline
2.43 Mil. ton
1.47 Mil ton
2 Mil. ton
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Global situationGlobal situation
Situation in JapanSituation in Japan
Paint IndustryPaint Industry
Secure Global Environment and
Economic Development
-Global Financial Crisis-Dealing with post crisis economy
Prevent Global Warming
New Law on public-service
corporation JPMA projects
Statistics
Technical
Safety
Environment
Int'l
colors
Standardization
Public Relation
Globalization
Product Liability
(fire fighting law)
Chemical Management-Formaldehyde-VOC-AF-GHS*Laws on Chemical Management
REACHHazardous Waste Treatment / Basel
Convention
Consolidation of JIS
Waste Management
Labor Safety
International Standard ISO - JIS
-Global Financial Crisis, Post economic crisis-Adoption to globalization-Global Environmental issues -Chemical Management
(9) Issues facing paint industry and its surroundings