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Appendix D
Health consequences of exposures of British
personnel to radioactivity whilst serving in
areas where atomic bomb tests were conducted
Alpha emitters in the fallout and estimated dosimetry for
the Christmas Island Tests; evidence from the secret
documents.
Chris Busby PhD
Castle Cottage, Sea View Place
Aberystwyth, SY23 1DZ UKFeb 10th 2012
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1. Scope
I employ the 2nd Gisted secret document table provided by Bevis Parker, DCDS
PERS-PCV-COMP LEGACY AHD (hereafter BP) to calculate the maximum activity
and mass of the alpha emitter components of the Grapple shots on Christmas Island. Ithen calculate the committed effective doses received over a 1 year duty period by a
veteran from reasonable assessed quantities of dispersed alpha emitting fallout on the
island from Grapple Y alone. I employ the conventional method of the International
Commission on Radiological Protection and also modify this using the recommended
dose coefficients of the European Committee on Radiation Risk.
2. Calculating the yields of alpha emitters
The declassified data given by BP states that the numbers represent an upper limit of
alpha activity for the uranium and plutonium components of the fallout. The data are
given in the unusual form of Becquerels per fission. However, in the first gisteddocument (p6 No 022840) it is stated that from U238/f and assuming 1.0Mt (56kg of
fissions) we can calculate the total U238 in the sample. This key statement enables
me to use the fact that one Gram Mole of U238 (238g) contains 6.0 x 1023 atoms
(Avogadro’s Number) to calculate the quantities of material in the fallout tables of BP
on the basis of the Mt test yields of the various bombs. This gives 1.4 x 1026 fissions
per Mt ((5600/ 238) x 6 x 1023). I use this value for all the alpha emitters since they all
have approximately the same atomic mass. I have already carried out some
calculations in my 2nd supplementary report to the tribunal but extend this approach
here to all the alpha emitters and all the Grapple tests. Results are in Tables 1 to 5 for
the different alpha emitters listed in BP.
Table 1 Uranium 238. (Half life 1.41 x 1017s); Specific activity 12.4MBq/kg
Test Bq/fission
(BP)
Yield
Mta
Bq yield Mass
yield tons
(000kg)
Note/
design altitude
G1 5.5E-16 0.3 2.3E+10 1.85 Malden Is
G2 3.6E-16 0.7 3.3E+10 2.67 Malden Is
G3 5.7E-17 0.22 1.7E+9 0.14 Malden Is
GX 1.8 E-16 1.9 4.8E+10 3.87 CI; 2250m
GY 9.5E-17 3.4 4.5E+10 3.63 CI; 2600/1800(?)mGZ-1 2.7E-19 0.023 869E+3 Grams?? CI; 460m balloon
GZ-2 2.0E-17 1.2 3.3E+9 0.27 CI; 2890m
GZ-3 7.6 E-17 0.8 8.5E+9 0.68 CI; 2660m
GZ-4 1.9E-19 0.024 638E+3 Grams ?? CI; 460m balloon
All 13000kg
a Lloyd DE and Belcher BE (1977) Source Book of Optical and Thermal Data from
Major Trials AWRE Report T4/77 and other reports
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Table 2 Uranium 235. (Half life 2.22 x1016); Specific activity 80MBq/kg
Test Bq/fission
(BP)
Yield
Mta
Bq yield Mass
yield (kg)
Note/
design altitudeG1 2.5E-16 0.3 1.0E+10 125 Malden Is
G2 3.5E-16 0.7 3.4E+10 425 Malden Is
G3 3.7E-16 0.22 1.1E+9 14 Malden Is
GX 3.1 E-17 1.9 8.2E+9 103 CI; 2250m
GY 2.8E-17 3.4 1.3E+10 163 CI; 2600/1800(?)m
GZ-1 5.5E-18 0.023 17.7E+6 0.22 CI; 460m balloon
GZ-2 5.6E-17 1.2 9.4E+9 117 CI; 2890m
GZ-3 4.8 E-17 0.8 5.3E+9 66 CI; 2660m
GZ-4 7.0E-18 0.024 23E+6 0.3 CI; 460m balloon
All 1013kga Lloyd DE and Belcher BE (1977) Source Book of Optical and Thermal Data from
Major Trials AWRE Report T4/77 and other reports
Table 3 Uranium 234. (Half life 7.76 x 1012); Specific activity 230GBq/kg
Test Bq/fission
(BP)
Yield
Mta
Bq yield Mass
yield (kg)
Note/
design altitude
G1 4.7E-15 0.3 1.97E+11 0.85 Malden Is
G2 1.5E-14 0.7 1.47E+12 6.4 Malden Is
G3 5.8E-15 0.22 1.8E+11 0.8 Malden IsGX 3.9 E-15 1.9 1.0E+12 4.4 CI; 2250m
GY 1.6E-15 3.4 7.6E+11 3.3 CI; 2600/1800(?)m
GZ-1 8.6E-17 0.023 276E+6 Grams CI; 460m balloon
GZ-2 6.2E-16 1.2 1.0E+11 0.4 CI; 2890m
GZ-3 6.3E-15 0.8 7.0E+11 3.0 CI; 2660m
GZ-4 1.2E-15 0.024 4.0E+9 0.02 CI; 460m balloon
All 19.2kg
a Lloyd DE and Belcher BE (1977) Source Book of Optical and Thermal Data from
Major Trials AWRE Report T4/77 and other reports
From the tables we see that considerable quantities of alpha emitters were produced
by the various tests at Christmas Island. From considerations of the properties of the
explosions we can say with some certainty that the Uranium and Plutonium
dispersions from the explosions will have condensed early on in the fireball cloud
owing to their high boiling points relative to both the noble gas precursor nuclides for
the longer lived beta gamma emitters Cs-137 and Sr-90. The Uraniums and
Plutoniums will exist as insoluble respirable ceramic sub micron particles and will
descend to ground more locally than the low melting point fallout residues (Glasstone
1957, Eisenbud and Gesell 1997). Furthermore, they will be washed out of the cloud
locally by any water vapour or seawater drawn into the cloud. I return to this belowwhen I consider Grapple Y.
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Table 4 Uranium 240/Plutonium 240. (Half life Pu240 2.07 E+11); Specific activity
Pu-240 8.6E+12Bq/kg
Test Bq/fission
(BP)
Yield
Mta
Bq yield Mass
yield (kg)
Note/
design altitude
G1 1.7E-13 0.3 7.1E+12 0.82 Malden Is
G2 3.9E-14 0.7 3.8E+12 0.44 Malden Is
G3 8.8E-14 0.22 2.7E+12 0.3 Malden Is
GX 6.2E-13 1.9 1.6E+14 18.6 CI; 2250m
GY 1.4E-12 3.4 6.7E+14 78 CI; 2600/1800(?)m
GZ-1 3.2E-17 0.023 103E+6 Grams CI; 460m balloon
GZ-2 3.3E-13 1.2 5.5E+13 6.4 CI; 2890m
GZ-3 1.7E-13 0.8 1.9E+13 2.2 CI; 2660m
GZ-4 2.1E-16 0.024 705E+6 grams CI; 460m balloon
All 106.8kg
a Lloyd DE and Belcher BE (1977) Source Book of Optical and Thermal Data from
Major Trials AWRE Report T4/77 and other reports
Table 5 Plutonium 239. (Half life Pu239 7.6 E+11); Specific activity Pu-240
2.3E+12Bq/kg
Test Bq/fission(BP)
YieldMt
a
Bq yield Massyield (kg)
Note/design altitude
G1 7.4E-13 0.3 3.1E+13 13.5 Malden Is
G2 9.3E-13 0.7 9.1E+13 39.5 Malden Is
G3 9.8E-13 0.22 3.0E+13 13.0 Malden Is
GX 1.5E-12 1.9 4.0E+14 174 CI; 2250m
GY 1.3E-12 3.4 6.2E+14 270 CI; 2600/1800(?)m
GZ-1 1.4E-12 0.023 4.5E+12 1.9 CI; 460m balloon
GZ-2 6.3E-14 1.2 1.0E+13 4.3 CI; 2890m
GZ-3 8.1E-13 0.8 9.1E+13 40 CI; 2660m
GZ-4 3.0E-12 0.024 1.0E+13 4.3 CI; 460m balloon
All 560.5kg
a Lloyd DE and Belcher BE (1977) Source Book of Optical and Thermal Data from
Major Trials AWRE Report T4/77 and other reports
It is clear from the tables that the cumulative test fallout alpha emitting material is a
very large amount. I particularly draw attention to U-234 which I will consider
separately below. Table 6 gives the activity yield and mass yield of Grapple Y and of
the total UK Christmas Island shots.
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Table 6 Alpha Fallout yield of Grapple Y and total cumulative yields of all the CI
tests
U238 U-235 U-234 Pu239+240
Grapple Y 4.5E+10 1.3E+10 7.6E+11 1.3E+15All CI tests 1.0E+11 3.6E+10 2.6E+12 2.0E+15
Table 7 Maximum mass (kg) of alpha emitters in yields from Grapple Y and all tests
on Christmas Island
U238 U-235 U-234 Pu239+240
Grapple Y 3630 163 3.3 348
All CI tests 8450 449 11.1 599
It should be particularly noted that these nuclides have virtually no gamma emissions
and will not be detected by Geiger counters. U-238 and U-235 have beta emitting
daughters in secular equilibrium as shown in Table 7. Therefore any device measuring
betas (a scintillation counter) will detect U-238 and U-235. I have employed this
method personally in Iraq and Kosovo to track Depleted Uranium residues. For each
alpha decay of U-238 there will be two beta decays. Note also that in the BP gist table
U-234 activity is between 50 and 70 times the U-235 activity and 19 to 26 times the
U-238 activity. This high activity from U-234 in fallout was noted as a warning to the
UK teams by Karl Z Morgan which was responsible for the health aspects of post shotexposures in the USA n a meeting at Aldermaston in 1952. It arises because of the
separation process for U-235 which also separates U-234. The theoretical ratio U-
234/U235 is 23.6 which is also the activity ratio of U-238/U-235 in natural Uranium
ores where the U234/U238 ratio is 1.0.
Table 7 Uranium beta daughters (fast decay means that the half life is short enough to
expect secular equilibrium).
U-238 U-235 U-234
Th-234 beta fast Th-231 beta fast Th-239 alpha
Pa234m beta fast Pa-231 alpha slowU-234 alpha slow
3. Calculating the mean surface contamination from Grapple Y and the
resuspension inhalation doses from the alpha emitters.
I begin by discounting all of the reported measurements of fallout on Christmas Island
after the tests. First because these were gamma measurements and will not have
detected alpha emitters. Second because they were based upon sticky papers and as I
have reported, these were either brought in during rain or were destroyed by rain, so
even the gamma measurements are unsafe.
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Second, for at least Grapple Y there are good reasons to believe that significant
quantities of water were drawn into the cloud from the sea and that rain fell
immediately after the test. This rain derived from the water drawn into the fireball and
also from the tropical moist air. It will have contained the alpha emitting glassy sub
micron particles. As I pointed out in my 2nd and 3rd supplement report, the upper wind
will have drawn the cloud to the east of CI and any rain will have then been driven back over the island by the lower SE wind.
To give an idea of the range of contamination, I will begin by assuming that from 5 to
20% of the alpha emitter yield uniformly contaminated the island area which I model
as 50 x 20km = 1.0 x 109 m2. The resultant area activities are given in Table 8.
Table 8 Calculated area contamination Bqm-2 from Grapple Y with air concentration
at a resuspension factor (dusty island) of 1 x 10 -5.
Nuclide Contamination
@5%
Contamination
@ 20%
Range of air concentrations
Bq/m-3 U-238 2.25 9 2.25E-5 to 9E-5
U-235 6.5 26 6.5E-5 to 26E-5
U-234 38 152 38E-5 to 152E-5
Pu239 31000 124000 3.1 to 12.4
Pu240 33500 134000 3.35 to 13.4
In Table 9 I give the ICRP72 inhalation dose coefficients Sv/Bq for these alpha
emitters. It is clear that the main hazard is from inhalation. There is also an ingestion
dose but this is second order. Dose coefficients for ingestion are given in Table 10.
Table 9 ICRP and ECRR2010 dose coefficients for inhalation of alpha emitters in the
form of particulates fallout
Nuclide ICRP72 inhalation
(refractory, type S)
ECRR2010 inhalation
(particulates)
U-238 8.0E-6 8.4E-3
U-235 8.5E-6 9.0E-3
U-234 9.4E-6 1.0E-2
Pu-239 1.6E-5 7.5E-5
Pu-240 1.6E-5 7.5E-5
Table 10 ICRP and ECRR2010 dose coefficients for ingestion of alpha emitters in the
form of particulate fallout
Nuclide ICRP72 ingestion
(refractory, type S)
ECRR2010 ingestion
(particulates)
U-238 4.5E-8 4.5 E-6
U-235 4.7E-8 4.7 E-6
U-234 4.5E-8 4.5E-6
Pu-239 2.5E-7 1.2E-6Pu-240 2.5E-7 1.2E-6
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ICRP reference man (ICRP 23 1975) inhales 23m3 of air per day, so over a period of 1
year an individual inhales 8395m3. The annual doses from inhalation of the
resuspended alpha emitters on CI are given in Table 11.
Table 11 ICRP and ECRR2010 annual committed effective doses from inhalation ofalpha emitters resuspended in air on Christmas Island due to Grapple Y alone. Ranges
based on 5% to 20% fallout.
Nuclide ICRP72 inhalation
(refractory, type S)
ECRR2010 inhalation
(particulates)
U-238 1.5uSv 6.4uSv 1.6mSv 6.3mSv
U-235 4.6uSv 18uSv 4.8mSv 19.5mSv
U-234 30uSv 120uSv 32mSv 127mSv
Pu-239 420mSv 1660mSv 1960mSv 7840mSv
Pu-240 459mSv 1836mSv 2151mSv 8606mSv
These appear to be very large doses, and they are. However, it should be noted that
these are committed effective dose equivalents, which means that the doses are those
that will be received over the period in which these particles remain in the body,
which for the insoluble Type S particles modeled can be up to 20 years. If we take the
high end ICRP Pu-240 committed effective dose equivalent of 1836mSv this will be
delivered over perhaps 10 years. If we assume 25% of this is in the first year, the dose
per week is 1/52 of this i.e 8.8mSv. This is below the threshold for clinical
deterministic effects though we might expect skin rashes, nose bleeding and upper
respiratory problems, coughs, bronchitis etc, (and upset stomachs from particlesswallowed) immediately after exposure since the doses are, of course, not in reality
averaged over kilograms of tissue but are located near the particles, the point made by
the ECRR analysis. From this point of view, the Uranium particles are perhaps more
dangerous as a long term genotoxic hazard since the plutonium “hot particles” will
kill cells rather than mutate them. This will be “wasted energy”. All of these
symptoms were reported by Christmas Island veterans in my BNTVA Children’s
study. In other words, these are chronic low doses over a long period of time. Their
effects would be observable objectively through biological markers such as
chromosome defects like those found in the New Zealand veterans by Al Rowland’s
studies and many of the exposed individuals will have suffered general ill health and
perhaps died early. The genetic transgenerational effects would also show as they didin Fallujah Iraq.
4. Grapple Y: Seawater source of rainfall
In my 2nd Supplementary report, Jan 2012, I employed a report released under the
Freedom of Information requests to re-analyse the fallout and rainout from the
Grapple Y test which was carried out over the sea in the SW corner of the island. I
argued that heavy rain occurred after this test and assumed that this rain resulted from
the drawing into the mushroom cloud the moist tropical air from sea level. However
information has come available since then which throws new light on the issue.
Photographs and films taken by the Canberra aircraft of the development ofthe mushroom cloud show what seems to be an object being drawn into the mushroom
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cloud. I append the photograph and a cropped section in Figs 1 and 2. Close
examination of the cloud development shows a large mass (or more than one)
apparently being drawn up from the surface into the fireball. As this mass enters the
fireball, a skirt of what seems to be water vapour is thrown down from the mushroom,
and this is followed by a second skirt in the last frame. Thus we are left with what
looks like two “petticoats” of vapour below the mushroom head, with a gap betweenthem. This seems to be a property of air bursts over the sea. In Fig 3 I show a photo of
a USA air burst Truckee (210kT) over the sea near Christmas Island (Light 2007). The
“petticoats” are clearly apparent. These are not seen in any photos of air burst devices
over the land (in 100 photographs of atomic explosions I have examined (Light 2007)
but I cannot say they do not exist.
I have used a laboratory travelling microscope to determine the dimensions of
the labeled object seen flying upwards into the Grapple Y mushroom. If we take the
Mushroom head diameter to be 8 miles diameter (13km) which is based on the Sniff
measurements and speeds (given in my 2nd Supplement) then the dimension of this
object modeled as a cylinder are L = 1.77km; D = 0.59km. The volume of this is thus
484 million cubic metres. We do not know what this object is. If sea water this isabout half a billion tons of sea water splashed up and drawn into the fireball. If water
vapour as a cloud at formation it is about ten million cubic metres of water. I believe
this is caused by the blast driving a hemispherical depression in the sea and the filling
of the depression and recovery from hydrostatic pressure resulting in the explosive
meeting in the centre of the water rushing in to replace the displaced water. Anyone
who has dropped a large rock in a pond knows that a vertical mass of water is ejected
following the closure of the temporary hole in the water surface. What would happen
when this was lifted into and hit the hot centre? It would explode into water vapour
which would be driven outwards radially and would condense where it met the
extremely cold air existing at that altitude. This would create the petticoat. Further
separated similar water elements would create further petticoats separated by the gaps
in their arriving at the hot centre. However speculative this description of the petticoat
effect is, there is no doubt that a very large object, is clearly seen apparently moving
upwards into the centre of the fireball.
There is a different possible interpretation. The object might be a condensation
phenomenon resulting from water drawn into the fireball from the sea condensing out
as the air cools and the fireball rises. In this case there would only be 10 million cubic
metres of water in the object (based on mean water vapour density in a cloud).
The impact of the blast on the sea surface is large. Using the relationships in
Glasstone 1957 it can be shown that the overpressure at the blast front of a 3Mton
device is roughly 3 atmospheres (50psi) at a distance from the centre of 1800m. Thisrepresents the pressure exerted by column of water of 32m. The effect of this and its
magnitude depend on the position of the Grapple Y burst and its height. In Fig 4 I
show a map which shows sea depths between two positions given in different
documents for the burst. The height of the burst was intended to be about 2500m but
John Large has analysed the situation and is of the opinion that the detonation
occurred far lower than this at about 1500m (Large 2010). He also believes that large
amounts of surface material were drawn into the cloud, indeed as I argue here and as
the photographs show. The depth of the sea at the referenced location of Grapple Y
was between 1m and 60m (see Fig 4). Whatever the position, the shock wave at the
surface will have been formidable. The blast will have pushed aside the water and hit
the sea bed over perhaps one third of the hemispherical shock wave radius at sea levelof several kilometers. The material will have been incorporated into the rapidly rising
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Fig 1. The Canberra photos of the Grapple Y development. These are
sequential (top left to bottom right).
5. Discussion
The data provided in the unclassified Gist by (BP) is of maximum levels of alpha
materials in the cloud sampling data. The activities are stated to be up to 10 times thereal values, data which we are not allowed to see. Since I assume the purpose of the
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secrecy is to ensure that we do not see the true nuclide ratios, this 10-fold will not be
uniform across the nuclides. Therefore we cannot claim that the inhalation doses are
accurate. But it does seem that we can say that they are not in error by more than a
factor of ten. There are some interesting results from this exercise. First, it seems that
U-234 is a far greater hazard in terms of effective dose than U-235 or U-238. Second
it seems that the Plutoniums are greater hazards than the Uraniums even if we employthe ECRR weighting factors. The quantities of plutonium in the fallout are very great,
even allowing for the factor of ten included in the gisting process. The baseline is that
it is quite clear that the alpha emitter contamination represented a serious hazard, and
even if only a fraction of the material came to earth in the rainout, it will have
constituted the source of significant internal doses. If only 1% of the plutoniums from
the Grapple Y test came to earth the committed effective doses over one year will
have been of the order of 100s of mSv and these doses will have been delivered to
veterans who did not experience any tests and will have not been issued with any
badges. As I have pointed out above, these are committed effective doses and the first
year dose will perhaps by 25% of the overall lifetime committed does given by the
ICRP and ECRR dose coefficients. Their effects will; also have been largely chronic.Do we have any independent evidence for these contaminations? We do. First,
we have a report from the New Zealand Department of Health survey stating clearly
that Uranium was found in many samples. In any case by the time of the New Zealand
survey the glassy alpha particulates will have been washed into the porous coral soil.
Second, we have more contemporaneous evidence in the anomalous beta gamma
ratios reported by AE Oldbury in the 1963 and 1962 decontamination reports which I
have discussed in my earlier supplements. These flag up far greater contamination by
Uranium than I have calculated from the gisted data.
The quantities of Uranium and Plutonium calculated for the various bombs
seem reasonable in terms of mass, particularly for the U-238. These calculations show
what enormous amounts of radioactivity were involved in these nuclear tests, and in
my expert opinion, it is inconceivable that the veterans will have been adequately
protected from exposure to the contamination given the combination of poor
measurement routines and the magnitude of the explosions relative to the size of the
island. The mechanisms for contamination are clearly apparent.
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Fig 2. The mysterious object in the Grapple Y cloud (indicated). See also the
“petticoats” of water vapour below the mushroom cap..
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Fig 3. Truckee the US 210kT nuclear test at Christmas island 1962 and the
petticoats (Light 2007)
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Fig 4 Depths of the sea at point lying between two different reported positions
of the Grapple Y test A and K. Note that the radius of the fireball at sea level was
about 10km and so the actual position is of second order importance relative to the
diameter of the fireball and ultimate cloud.
Refs:
Clare PM, Grinstead KH and Saxby WN (1987) Annual Background Radiation: UK
and Christmas island 1956-64. SFS/MOD (PE) AWRE 1986 amended 1987; AWESTDN 14/87. Aldermaston
CRC (1981) Handbook of Chemistry and Physics Boca Raton USA: CRC Press
Eisenbud M and Gesell T (1997) Environmental Radioactivity San Diego, USA:
Academic Press
Light M (2007) 100 Solar 1945-1962 Stockholm: Bokforlaget Max Strom
McEwan AC, Matthews KM, Gregory LP (1981) An Environmental radiation survey
on Christmas Island, Kiribati: Department of Health. New Zealand National Radiation
Laboratory No 1981/9.
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ICRP23 (1975) Report of the task Group on Reference Man. ICRP23 Oxford:
Pergamon Press
Oldbury AE (1963) SSCTD Technical Memorandum No 6/63 Operation DOMINICDecontamination Group Report AWRE SSCTD 6/63
Oldbury AE (1962) Decontamination of Cloud Sampling Aircraft AWRE report T
16/62
UNSCEAR (2000) Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation Vol 1 Sources. New
York: UN.