Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
GROWTH & INCLUSION: The path to shared
prosperityMichael Green, World Bank, 23rd March 2015
#wblive
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
Economic
Development
GDP
Social
Progress
2
WHEN AND HOW DOES ECONOMIC GROWTH LEAD TO
SOCIAL PROGRESS?
THE DUAL CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPMENT
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOMETIMES THAT LINK IS MISSING.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT ALWAYS LEAD TO SOCIAL
PROGRESS…
Economic
Development
GDP
Social
Progress
3
THE DUAL CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPMENT
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
…AND SOMETIMES SOCIAL PROGRESS INFLUENCES ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT.
4
Economic
Development
GDP
Social
Progress
THE DUAL CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPMENT
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
TO UNDERSTAND THIS RELATIONSHIP WE NEED TO MEASURE
SOCIAL PROGRESS DIRECTLY
Social
Progress
?
5
THE DUAL CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPMENT
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX: ADVISORY BOARD
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Scott Stern
School of Management Distinguished Professor of
Technological Innovation, Entrepreneurship and
Strategic Management, MIT
Judith Rodin
President, The Rockefeller Foundation
Professor Michael E. Porter, Chair
Bishop William Lawrence University Professor
at the Harvard Business School.
Matthew Bishop
The Economist
Hernando de Soto
President, Institute for Liberty and Democracy
Ngaire Woods
Dean, Blavatnik School of Government,
University of Oxford
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
GROWING MOMENTUM FOR BETTER MEASUREMENT
“In an increasingly performance-oriented society, metrics matter. What we measure affects what we do. If we have the wrong metrics, we will strive for the wrong things.”
Joseph Stiglitz, Amartya Sen, Jean-Paul Fitoussi
Mismeasuring Our Lives
7
Amartya SenJoseph Stiglitz Jean-Paul Fitoussi
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX: DESIGN PRINCIPLES
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Exclusively social and
environmental indicators
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX: DESIGN PRINCIPLES
9
Outcomes – not inputs
Exclusively social and
environmental indicators
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX: DESIGN PRINCIPLES
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Outcomes – not inputs
Relevant to all countries
Exclusively social and
environmental indicators
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX: DESIGN PRINCIPLES
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Outcomes – not inputs
Actionability
Relevant to all countries
Exclusively social and
environmental indicators
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
WHAT IS SOCIAL PROGRESS?
Social progress is the capacity of a society to meet the basic human needs of its citizens, establish the building blocks that allow citizens and communities to enhance and sustain the quality of their lives, and create the conditions for all individuals to reach
their full potential.
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress13
Social Progress Index
OpportunityFoundations of WellbeingBasic Human Needs
Nutrition and Basic Medical Care
Water and Sanitation
Shelter
Personal Safety
Access to Basic Knowledge
Access to Information and
Communications
Health and Wellness
Ecosystem Sustainability
Personal Rights
Access to Advanced Education
Personal Freedom and Choice
Tolerance and Inclusion
SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX FRAMEWORK
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX FRAMEWORK INDICATORS 2014
14
Basic Human Needs Opportunity
Nutrition and Basic Medical Care Undernourishment
Depth of food deficit
Maternal mortality rate
Stillbirth rate
Child mortality rate
Deaths from infectious diseases
Water and Sanitation Access to piped water
Rural vs. urban access to improved water source
Access to improved sanitation facilities
Shelter Availability of affordable housing
Access to electricity
Quality of electricity supply
Indoor air pollution attributable deaths
Personal Safety Homicide rate
Level of violent crime
Perceived criminality
Political terror
Traffic deaths
Access to Basic Knowledge Adult literacy rate
Primary school enrollment
Lower secondary school enrollment
Upper secondary school enrollment
Gender parity in secondary enrollment
Access to Information and Communications Mobile telephone subscriptions
Internet users
Press Freedom Index
Health and Wellness Life expectancy
Non-communicable disease deaths between the ages of 30 and 70
Obesity rate
Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths
Suicide rate
Ecosystem Sustainability Greenhouse gas emissions
Water withdrawals as a percent of resources
Biodiversity and habitat
Personal Rights Political rights
Freedom of speech
Freedom of assembly/association
Freedom of movement
Private property rights
Personal Freedom and Choice Freedom over life choices
Freedom of religion
Modern slavery, human trafficking and child marriage
Satisfied demand for contraception
Corruption
Tolerance and Inclusion Women treated with respect
Tolerance for immigrants
Tolerance for homosexuals
Discrimination and violence against minorities
Religious tolerance
Community safety net
Access to Advanced Education Years of tertiary schooling
Women’s average years in school
Inequality in the attainment of education
Number of globally ranked universities
Social Progress Index
Foundations of Wellbeing
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress15
Basic Human Needs Opportunity
Nutrition and Basic Medical Care Undernourishment Depth of food deficit Maternal mortality rate Stillbirth rate Child mortality rate Deaths from infectious diseases
Water and Sanitation Access to piped water Rural vs. urban access to improved water
source Access to improved sanitation facilities
Shelter Availability of affordable housing Access to electricity Quality of electricity supply Indoor air pollution attributable deaths
Personal Safety Homicide rate Level of violent crime Perceived criminality Political terror Traffic deaths
Access to Basic Knowledge Adult literacy rate Primary school enrollment Lower secondary school enrollment Upper secondary school enrollment Gender parity in secondary enrollment
Access to Information and Communications Mobile telephone subscriptions Internet users Press Freedom Index
Health and Wellness Life expectancy Non-communicable disease deaths between
the ages of 30 and 70 Obesity rate Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths Suicide rate
Ecosystem Sustainability Greenhouse gas emissions Water withdrawals as a percent of
resources Biodiversity and habitat
Personal Rights Political rights Freedom of speech Freedom of assembly/association Freedom of movement Private property rights
Personal Freedom and Choice Freedom over life choices Freedom of religion Modern slavery, human trafficking and child
marriage Satisfied demand for contraception Corruption
Tolerance and Inclusion Women treated with respect Tolerance for immigrants Tolerance for homosexuals Discrimination and violence against minorities Religious tolerance Community safety net
Access to Advanced Education Years of tertiary schooling Women’s average years in school Inequality in the attainment of education Number of globally ranked universities
Social Progress Index
Foundations of Wellbeing
2014 SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX: OVERLAP WITH MILLENNIUM
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
COMPONENT METHODOLOGY
• Each component is calculated as the weighted sum of the individual indicators, where the weights are determined by factor analysis
16
𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑐 =
𝑖
(𝑤i ∗ 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟i)
Component values are then translated to a 0 to 100
scale by comparing country scores to the theoretical best
and worst score possible
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
CALCULATING THE INDEX
• For each dimension, we calculate the sum of each of the components:
• The Social Progress Index is the sum across the three dimensions:
17
𝑆𝑃𝐼 =1
3
𝑑
𝐷𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑑
𝐷𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑑 =1
4
𝑐
𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑐
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX 2014 RESULTS
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Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX VS. GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)*
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* (constant 2011 international $)
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:
KEY FINDING
Economic development alone is not sufficient to explain social progress outcomes.
GDP per capita is an incomplete measure of a country's overall performance:
• There is a non-linear relationship between Social Progress Index scores and GDP per capita.
• Social Progress Index scores display significant deviation from the GDP per capita regression line.
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Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
KEY FINDING #2
Some aspects of social progress are more correlated with GDP than others.
This is a complex relationship where causation may go in both directions.
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Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX DIMENSIONS VS. GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)
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BASIC HUMAN NEEDS VS GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)
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r2 = 0.8376
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FOUNDATIONS OF WELLBEING VS GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)
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r2 = 0.704
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DISTRIBUTION OF SCORES FOR FOUNDATIONS OF WELLBEING
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OPPORTUNITY VS GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)
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r2 = 0.5998
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
OPPORTUNITY VS GDP PER CAPITA (PPP): MENA
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Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
DEFINING RELATIVE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
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• We define a country’s economic peers as the 15 countries closest in
GDP PPP per capita.
• Once the peer group is defined, a country’s performance is
compared to the median performance of countries within the peer
cohort.
• If a country’s indicator score is greater than (or less than) the
average absolute deviation from the median of the comparator
group, it is considered a strength (or weakness). Scores within one
average absolute deviation are considered neither strengths nor
weaknesses (neutral) within the cohort.
www.socialprogressimperative.org
Relative Strength Neutral Relative Weakness
Strengths and weaknesses are relative to 15 countries of similar GDP:
n/a – no data available
Social Progress Index rank: 16/132GDP per capita rank: 5/132 UNITED STATES
Saudi Arabia; Switzerland; United Arab Emirates; Austria; Ireland; Netherlands; Australia; Germany; Sweden; Denmark; Canada;
Belgium; Norway; Iceland; and Finland
Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank
BASIC HUMAN NEEDS 89.82 23 W- FOUNDATIONS OF WELLBEING 75.96 36 W OPPORTUNITY 82.54 5 N
Nutrition and Basic Medical Care 97.82 24 N Access to Basic Knowledge 95.10 39 W Personal Rights 82.28 22 N
Undernourishment <5.0 1 N Adult literacy rate 99.0 21 N Political rights 1.0 1 N
Depth of food deficit 1 1 N Primary school enrollment 91.9 77 W- Freedom of speech 2.0 1 S+
Maternal mortality rate 21 40 W- Lower secondary school enrollment 97.9 56 W- Freedom of assembly/association 1.0 48 W-
Stillbirth rate 3 6 N Upper secondary school enrollment 89.4 46 W- Freedom of movement 3.0 67 W
Child mortality rate 7 36 W- Gender parity in secondary enrollment 1.0 1 N Private property rights 80.0 17 W
Deaths from infectious diseases 34 35 N
Water and Sanitation 95.77 34 W- Access to Information and Communications 81.33 23 W Personal Freedom and Choice 84.29 15 N
Access to piped water n/a n/a Mobile telephone subscriptions 95.4 83 W- Freedom over life choices 82.0 33 W
Rural vs. urban access to improved water source 5.7 58 W- Internet users 81.0 17 N Freedom of religion 3.0 56 N
Access to improved sanitation facilities 99.6 28 W Press Freedom Index 18.2 21 W Modern slavery, human trafficking, child marriage 2.8 25 W
Satisfied demand for contraception 92.9 8 N
Corruption 73.0 15 N
Shelter 87.99 9 N Health and Wellness 73.61 70 W- Tolerance and Inclusion 74.22 13 N
Availability of affordable housing 67 6 S Life expectancy 78.6 29 W Women treated with respect 75.0 35 W
Access to electricity 100.0 1 N Non-communicable disease deaths between 30 and 70 15.0 32 W Tolerance for immigrants 82.0 7 N
Quality of electricity supply 6.2 21 W Obesity rate 31.8 125 W- Tolerance for homosexuals 70.0 9 N
Indoor air pollution attributable deaths 0.0 1 N Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths 18.0 95 W Discrimination and violence against minorities 4.2 29 N
Suicide rate 10.7 78 N Religious tolerance 3.0 38 N
Community safety net 90.0 26 W
Personal Safety 77.70 31 W- Ecosystem Sustainability 53.78 69 N Access to Advanced Education 89.37 1 S+
Homicide rate 2.0 41 W- Greenhouse gas emissions 528.6 2 N Years of tertiary schooling 1.7 1 S+
Level of violent crime 1.0 1 N Water withdrawals as a percent of resources 2.9 85 W Women's average years in school 13.9 4 N
Perceived criminality 2.0 2 N Biodiversity and habitat 63.4 67 N Inequality in the attainment of education 0.1 24 W
Political terror 3.0 80 W- Number of globally ranked universities 5.0 1 S+
Traffic deaths 11.4 37 W-
www.socialprogressimperative.org
Relative Strength Neutral Relative Weakness
Strengths and weaknesses are relative to 15 countries of similar GDP:
n/a – no data available
Social Progress Index rank: 69/132GDP per capita rank: 61/132 SOUTH AFRICA
Macedonia; Colombia; Peru; Serbia; Jordan; Algeria; Dominican Republic; Costa Rica; China; Egypt; Tunisia; Thailand; Montenegro;
Ecuador; and Brazil
Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank
BASIC HUMAN NEEDS 60.20 94 W- FOUNDATIONS OF WELLBEING 67.49 71 N OPPORTUNITY 61.19 40 S
Nutrition and Basic Medical Care 75.90 95 W- Access to Basic Knowledge 92.85 59 N Personal Rights 74.94 32 S
Undernourishment <5.0 1 N Adult literacy rate 93.0 71 N Political rights 2.0 37 N
Depth of food deficit 16 42 N Primary school enrollment 85.0 104 W- Freedom of speech 1.0 14 N
Maternal mortality rate 300 104 W- Lower secondary school enrollment 111.0 1 N Freedom of assembly/association 2.0 1 S
Stillbirth rate 20 97 W- Upper secondary school enrollment 96.0 34 S+ Freedom of movement 4.0 1 N
Child mortality rate 45 97 W- Gender parity in secondary enrollment 1.0 1 N Private property rights 50.0 36 S
Deaths from infectious diseases 983 127 W-
Water and Sanitation 69.80 85 W Access to Information and Communications 70.52 41 S Personal Freedom and Choice 70.82 50 N
Access to piped water 69 73 W Mobile telephone subscriptions 130.6 1 N Freedom over life choices 58.0 96 N
Rural vs. urban access to improved water source 19.7 98 W Internet users 41.0 69 N Freedom of religion 4.0 1 S
Access to improved sanitation facilities 74.0 80 W- Press Freedom Index 24.6 21 S Modern slavery, human trafficking, child marriage 5.0 42 S
Satisfied demand for contraception 83.4 61 N
Corruption 42.0 53 N
Shelter 64.20 71 W Health and Wellness 62.36 121 W- Tolerance and Inclusion 58.35 42 S
Availability of affordable housing 40 85 N Life expectancy 55.3 120 W- Women treated with respect 54.0 88 N
Access to electricity 83.0 89 W- Non-communicable disease deaths between 30 and 70 27.0 90 W Tolerance for immigrants 56.0 66 N
Quality of electricity supply 3.8 82 W Obesity rate 33.5 127 W- Tolerance for homosexuals 47.0 31 S
Indoor air pollution attributable deaths 22.2 1 N Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths 15.0 79 N Discrimination and violence against minorities 5.7 54 S
Suicide rate 3.5 26 N Religious tolerance 3.0 38 N
Community safety net 90.0 26 S
Personal Safety 30.90 128 W- Ecosystem Sustainability 44.21 92 W Access to Advanced Education 40.66 71 N
Homicide rate 5.0 109 W Greenhouse gas emissions 1176.4 96 W- Years of tertiary schooling 0.2 83 W
Level of violent crime 5.0 123 W- Water withdrawals as a percent of resources 3.0 90 N Women's average years in school 10.4 66 N
Perceived criminality 4.0 91 N Biodiversity and habitat 64.0 65 N Inequality in the attainment of education 0.2 64 N
Political terror 3.0 80 N Number of globally ranked universities 2.0 22 S+
Traffic deaths 31.9 126 W
www.socialprogressimperative.org
Relative Strength Neutral Relative Weakness
Strengths and weaknesses are relative to 15 countries of similar GDP:
n/a – no data available
Social Progress Index rank: 84/132GDP per capita rank: 69/132 EGYPT
Tunisia; China; Dominican Republic; Jordan; Ecuador; Serbia; Peru; Colombia; Macedonia; South Africa; Albania; Bosnia and
Herzegovina; Namibia; Sri Lanka; and Indonesia
Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank
BASIC HUMAN NEEDS 76.77 58 N FOUNDATIONS OF WELLBEING 68.98 66 N OPPORTUNITY 34.17 119 W-
Nutrition and Basic Medical Care 92.30 62 N Access to Basic Knowledge 84.33 89 W Personal Rights 28.21 111 W
Undernourishment <5.0 1 N Adult literacy rate 73.9 99 W- Political rights 6.0 105 W-
Depth of food deficit 9 33 N Primary school enrollment 95.6 51 N Freedom of speech 1.0 14 N
Maternal mortality rate 66 71 N Lower secondary school enrollment 100.8 1 N Freedom of assembly/association 0.0 95 W
Stillbirth rate 13 77 N Upper secondary school enrollment 52.9 94 W- Freedom of movement 2.0 92 N
Child mortality rate 21 76 N Gender parity in secondary enrollment 1.0 85 W- Private property rights 20.0 106 W
Deaths from infectious diseases 76 59 N
Water and Sanitation 96.39 32 S Access to Information and Communications 60.31 72 N Personal Freedom and Choice 57.07 109 W-
Access to piped water 96 30 S Mobile telephone subscriptions 119.9 1 N Freedom over life choices 44.0 125 W
Rural vs. urban access to improved water source 1.2 39 N Internet users 44.1 63 N Freedom of religion 1.0 117 W-
Access to improved sanitation facilities 95.0 45 N Press Freedom Index 48.7 95 W Modern slavery, human trafficking, child marriage 5.1 44 S
Satisfied demand for contraception 84.3 57 N
Corruption 32.0 90 W
Shelter 61.12 79 N Health and Wellness 69.77 89 N Tolerance and Inclusion 24.67 129 W-
Availability of affordable housing 17 130 W- Life expectancy 70.7 78 W Women treated with respect 69.0 44 N
Access to electricity 100.0 1 N Non-communicable disease deaths between 30 and 70 22.0 62 N Tolerance for immigrants 25.0 127 W-
Quality of electricity supply 3.4 87 W- Obesity rate 34.6 130 W Tolerance for homosexuals n/a n/a
Indoor air pollution attributable deaths 5.9 1 N Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths 17.0 88 N Discrimination and violence against minorities 8.5 117 W
Suicide rate 2.3 7 N Religious tolerance 1.0 118 W
Community safety net 73.0 98 W
Personal Safety 57.25 78 N Ecosystem Sustainability 61.50 47 N Access to Advanced Education 26.72 92 W-
Homicide rate 1.0 1 N Greenhouse gas emissions 639.2 2 N Years of tertiary schooling 0.3 69 N
Level of violent crime 4.0 103 W Water withdrawals as a percent of resources 1.3 60 S Women's average years in school 8.4 88 W
Perceived criminality 3.0 35 N Biodiversity and habitat 65.3 62 N Inequality in the attainment of education 0.4 101 W-
Political terror 4.0 117 W Number of globally ranked universities 1.0 35 S
Traffic deaths 13.2 51 N
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
EXTENSIVE MEDIA COVERAGE FOR SPI 2014: 450+ PLACEMENTS IN
70+ COUNTRIES
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Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
FROM INDEX TO ACTION
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Innovative Tools
A New Definition of
Development
Action Networks
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress34
SOCIAL PROGRESS FRAMEWORK IN ACTION
• In 2013, Paraguay became the firstcountry in the world to officiallyadopt the Social Progress Index as ametric of national performance.
• This year, Paraguay presented itsNational Development plan, agovernmental strategy aligned toSocial Progress Indicators.
• As a result, the budget allocation fornutrition programs has doubled andParaguay has set a target of 2% orless for child malnutrition by 2018.
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
IPS AMAZONIA – SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX FOR THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON
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Developed to measure levels of social progress
in an area of 1.2 million square kilometers of
highly dense forest – home to more than 24
million Brazilians living in an ecosystem of
global importance.
MAJOR FINDINGS INCLUDE:
• Maternal mortality rate is 298.21 per 100,000 people.
• Child mortality rate is 27.8 per 100,000 people.
• Infectious diseases (malaria, HIV, dengue and tuberculosis) kill 49.5 per
100,000 people.
• 80% of these populations have no clean water to drink.
• Nearly 30% of people age 15+ living in these municipalities are illiterate.
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
Nutrition and Basic Medical Care Undernourishment Morbidity due to under nutrition Maternal mortality rate Child mortality rate Mortality due to infectious diseases
Water and Sanitation Access to piped water Access to improved sanitation facilities Rural access to improved water facilities
Shelter Availability of affordable housing Access to electricity Trash collection
Personal Safety Homicide rate Traffic deaths Violence exposure
Access to Basic Knowledge Adult Literacy rate Primary school enrollment Secondary school enrollment Quality of education
Access to Information and Communications Mobile telephone subscriptions Mobile internet users
Health and Wellness Life expectancy Deaths from cancer, cardiovascular diseases,
and diabetes Obesity rate Morbidity due to respiratory diseases Suicide rate
Ecosystem Sustainability Forest coverage Deforestation rate Protected areas Degraded areas Hydric Stress
Personal Rights Political pluralism Mobility Property rights over land
Personal Freedom and Choice Child labor Children and teen pregnancies Access to culture and recreation Familiar vulnerability
Tolerance and Inclusion Violence against women Violence against indigenous Inequality between whites and blacks
Access to Advanced Education Tertiary school enrollment Women’s mean years in school Young people studying college degrees
Basic Human Needs Opportunity
Social Progress Index
Foundations of Wellbeing
Same indicator
Close definitiion
Best available proxy
New indicator
2014 MUNICIPAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON(COLOR CODED BY LEVEL OF MATCHING WITH THE 2014 GLOBAL FRAMEWORK)
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
BRAZIL: A POWERFUL NETWORK
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EFFECTIVE AND SUSTAINABLE governance structure - a convening of local leaders
that garners legitimacy.
GUARANTEED AND PROVEN COMMITMENT to social causes.
DYNAMIC CROSS-SECTORAL COLLABORATION with financial sustainability.
Executive Secretariat
(Sao Paulo)
www.progressosocial.org.br
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
SOCIAL PROGRESS NETWORK: LATIN AMERICA
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• 107 organizations from the government, private sector and civil society.
• 21 initiatives
• 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries
• Brazil
• Chile
• Colombia
• Costa Rica
• El Salvador
• Guatemala
• Panama
• Paraguay
• Peru
• Trinidad and Tobago
Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress
THE EXPANDING SOCIAL PROGRESS NETWORK IN 2015
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• Canada
• United States
• South Africa
• Tanzania
• European Union
• Malaysia
• Latin America
and Caribbean
• Japan