GRAIN OUTLOOKGRAIN OUTLOOK
Agricultural Lender’s Conference Agricultural Lender’s Conference 20062006
Mike WoolvertonMike Woolverton
Kansas State UniversityKansas State [email protected]@agecon.ksu.edu
WHEATWHEAT
Wheat Estimates, USDA, Wheat Estimates, USDA, Oct. 2006Oct. 2006
YieldYield ProductionProduction
U.S.U.S. 38.338.31.812 bil.1.812 bil.
KansasKansas 32.032.0 300.8 mil. 300.8 mil.(40.0)(40.0) (380.0 mil.) (380.0 mil.)
PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS, PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS, U.S., 2006/07U.S., 2006/07
All Wheat – 1.812 bil. Bu. – down 14%All Wheat – 1.812 bil. Bu. – down 14%
Hard Winter – 682 mil. Bu. – down 27%Hard Winter – 682 mil. Bu. – down 27% Hard Spring – 432 mil. Bu. – down 7%Hard Spring – 432 mil. Bu. – down 7% Soft Red – 390 mil. Bu. – up 26%Soft Red – 390 mil. Bu. – up 26% White – 254 mil. Bu. – down 15%White – 254 mil. Bu. – down 15% Durum – 53 mil. Bu. - down 48%Durum – 53 mil. Bu. - down 48%
2006 - 2005 HRW Wheat Quality 2006 - 2005 HRW Wheat Quality 11
20062006 20052005
Test Weight lbs/bu Test Weight lbs/bu 60.7 60.7 60.0 60.0
Wheat Protein %Wheat Protein % 13.9 13.9 12.1 12.1
Flour YieldFlour Yield 71.0 71.0 69.0 69.0
Wet Gluten %Wet Gluten % 33.8 33.8 29.5 29.5
11 Kansas State University harvest survey of Wheat Sheds in Kansas, Kansas State University harvest survey of Wheat Sheds in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, Summer 2006, preliminary results.Oklahoma, and Texas, Summer 2006, preliminary results.
PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS, PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS, MAJOR WHEAT EXPORTERS, MAJOR WHEAT EXPORTERS,
2006/07 2006/07 (MMT)(MMT)
2006/072006/07 2005/062005/06 EU-25EU-25 117.89 117.89 (-4%)(-4%) 122.59 122.59 United StatesUnited States 49.32 49.32 (-14%)(-14%) 57.28 57.28 CanadaCanada 26.3 26.3 (+1%)(+1%) 25.98 25.98 AustraliaAustralia 11.0 11.0 (-55%)(-55%) 24.5 24.5 ArgentinaArgentina 13.25 13.25 (+6%)(+6%) 12.5 12.5
Total World Prod.Total World Prod. 585.14 585.14 (-6%)(-6%) 621.86621.86
WORLD WHEAT CARRYOVER 2002 TO 2007 est. (MMT)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 est
YEAR
MM
T
Wheat Balance SheetWheat Balance Sheet04-05 04-05 05-06 05-06 06-0706-07
Plant A. (mil.)Plant A. (mil.) 59.7 59.7 57.2 57.2 57.3 57.3
Harvest A. (mil.)Harvest A. (mil.) 50.0 50.0 50.1 50.1 46.8 46.8
Bu./A. Bu./A. 43.2 43.2 42.0 42.0 38.7 38.7
ProductionProduction 2,158 2,158 2,105 2,105 1,8121,812
ImportsImports 71 71 82 82 105 105
Carryover Carryover 546 546 540 540 571 571
Total Supply Total Supply 2,775 2,775 2,727 2,727 2,4882,488
Utilization:Utilization:
Feed and ResidualFeed and Residual 201 201 200 200 145 145
FoodFood 895 895 915 915 920 920
Seed Seed 79 79 78 78 80 80
ExportsExports 1,060 1,060 1,009 1,009 925 925
Total UtilizationTotal Utilization 2,235 2,235 2,155 2,155 2,0702,070CarryoverCarryover 540 540 (24%)(24%) 571 571 (26%)(26%) 418 418
(20%)(20%)
U.S. Farm PriceU.S. Farm Price $3.40 $3.42 $4.10-$4.60 $3.40 $3.42 $4.10-$4.60
Current Market Influences - WheatCurrent Market Influences - Wheat
Australian Drought Australian Drought (-55%)(-55%)
Low Carryover Low Carryover U.S. HRW QualityU.S. HRW Quality Winter Wheat PlantingsWinter Wheat Plantings
CORNCORN
Corn Estimates, USDA, Corn Estimates, USDA, Oct. 2006Oct. 2006
YieldYield BushelsBushels
U.S.U.S. 153.5153.5 10.9 bil.10.9 bil.
KansasKansas 125.0125.0 394 mil.394 mil. (135.0)(135.0) (465.8 mil.)(465.8 mil.)
Corn Balance SheetCorn Balance Sheet04-05 04-05 05-06 05-06 06-0706-07
Plant A. (mil.)Plant A. (mil.) 80.9 80.9 81.8 81.8 78.6 78.6
Harvest A. (mil.)Harvest A. (mil.) 73.6 73.6 75.1 75.1 71.0 71.0
Bu./A. Bu./A. 160.4 160.4 147.9 147.9 153.5 153.5
Production 11,807Production 11,807 11,112 11,112 10,905 10,905
ImportsImports 11 11 11 11 10 10
Beginning Carryover Beginning Carryover 958 958 2,114 2,114 1,971 1,971
Total Supply Total Supply 12,776 12,776 13,23713,237 12,886 12,886
Utilization:Utilization:
Feed and ResidualFeed and Residual 6,162 6,141 6,162 6,141 6,100 6,100 Food, seed, industrialFood, seed, industrial 2,686 2,686 2,975 2,975 3,540 3,540 Ethanol Ethanol
for fuelfor fuel 1,323 1,323 (11%) (11%) 1,600 1,600 (14%)(14%) 2,150 2,150 (20%)(20%)
ExportsExports 1,814 1,814 2,150 2,150 2,250 2,250
Total UtilizationTotal Utilization 10,662 10,662 11,26611,266 11,890 11,890
Ending CarryoverEnding Carryover 2,114 2,114 (20%)(20%) 1,971 1,971 (17%)(17%) 996 996 (8%)(8%)
U.S. Farm PriceU.S. Farm Price $2.06 $2.00 $2.40-$2.80 $2.06 $2.00 $2.40-$2.80
Current Market Influences - CornCurrent Market Influences - Corn
Wet Harvest Conditions in Wet Harvest Conditions in Southern and Eastern Corn Southern and Eastern Corn BeltBelt
Demand from ethanol Demand from ethanol producersproducers
Strong export demandStrong export demand Carryover stocksCarryover stocks
GRAIN SORGHUMGRAIN SORGHUM
Sorghum Estimates, USDA, Sorghum Estimates, USDA, Oct. 2006Oct. 2006
YieldYield ProductionProduction
U.S.U.S. 56.656.6301.0 mil.301.0 mil.
KansasKansas 60.060.0138.0 mil.138.0 mil.(75.0)(75.0) (195.0 mil.) (195.0 mil.)
Sorghum Balance SheetSorghum Balance Sheet04-05 04-05 05-06 05-06 06-0706-07
Plant A. (mil.)Plant A. (mil.) 7.5 7.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3
Harvest A. (mil.)Harvest A. (mil.) 6.5 6.5 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.3
Bu./A. Bu./A. 69.9 69.9 68.7 68.7 56.6 56.6
Production 454 Production 454 394 394 301 301
ImportsImports 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Carryover Beginning Carryover 34 34 57 57 65 65
Total Supply Total Supply 487 487 451 451 366 366
Utilization:Utilization:
Feed and ResidualFeed and Residual 191 141 191 141 100 100
Food, seed, industrialFood, seed, industrial 55 55 50 50 55 55
ExportsExports 184 184 195 195 165 165
Total UtilizationTotal Utilization 430 430 386 386 320 320
Ending CarryoverEnding Carryover 57 57 (13%)(13%) 65 65 (17%)(17%) 46 46 (14%)(14%)
U.S. Farm PriceU.S. Farm Price $1.79 $1.86 $2.20-$2.60 $1.79 $1.86 $2.20-$2.60
SOYBEANSSOYBEANS
Soybean Estimates, USDA, Soybean Estimates, USDA, Oct. 2006Oct. 2006
YieldYield ProductionProduction
U.S.U.S. 42.842.83.189 bil.3.189 bil.
KansasKansas 31.031.093 mil.93 mil.(37.0)(37.0) (105.5 mil.)(105.5 mil.)
Soybean Balance SheetSoybean Balance Sheet04-05 04-05 05-06 05-06 06-0706-07
Plant A. (mil.)Plant A. (mil.) 75.2 75.2 72.0 72.0 75.6 75.6 Harvest A. (mil.)Harvest A. (mil.) 74.0 74.0 71.3 71.3 74.5 74.5Bu./A. Bu./A. 42.2 42.2 43.0 43.0 42.8 42.8ProductionProduction 3,124 3,124 3,063 3,063
3,1893,189 ImportsImports 6 6 4 4 4 4 Beginning Carryover Beginning Carryover 112 112 256 256 449 449
Total Supply Total Supply 3,242 3,242 3,323 3,323 3,6413,641
Utilization:Utilization: Crushings Crushings 1,696 1,696 1,739 1,739
1,7751,775 Seed Seed 88 88 93 91 93 91 ExportsExports 1,103 1,103 948 948 1,145 Residual 1,145 Residual
99 99 95 95 75 75 Total UtilizationTotal Utilization 2,986 2,986 2,874 2,874 3,086 3,086
Ending CarryoverEnding Carryover 256 256 (9%)(9%) 449 449 (16%)(16%) 555 555 (18%)(18%)
U.S. Farm PriceU.S. Farm Price $5.74 $5.74 5.66 $4.90-$5.90 5.66 $4.90-$5.90
Current Market Influences - Current Market Influences - SoybeansSoybeans
Higher than expected Higher than expected yields due to August rainsyields due to August rains
Large CarryoverLarge Carryover Bio-diesel potentialBio-diesel potential Brazilian plantingsBrazilian plantings
Production of Major Crops, Production of Major Crops, United States and Former Soviet Union, United States and Former Soviet Union, Percentage Change, 2001/02 to 2004/05Percentage Change, 2001/02 to 2004/05
U.S.U.S. F.S.U.F.S.U.
WheatWheat 11%11% 6% 6%
CornCorn 24%24%125%125%
SoybeansSoybeans 9% 9%117%117%
Source: USDA Agricultural Statistics, 2006Source: USDA Agricultural Statistics, 2006
Former Soviet Union, Production, Former Soviet Union, Production, 2004/05, KMT 2004/05, KMT
CountryCountry WheatWheat CornCorn SoybeansSoybeansRussiaRussia 45,300 3,450 45,300 3,450 .56 .56UkraineUkraine 17,500 8,800 17,500 8,800 .36 .36KazakhstanKazakhstan 9,950 - 9,950 - - - MoldovaMoldova - - 1,500 1,500 - -
For Comparison:For Comparison:United States 58,738 299,917 85,484United States 58,738 299,917 85,484
Source: USDA, Agricultural Statistics, 2006.Source: USDA, Agricultural Statistics, 2006.