Globalizing patterns of natural resource use in relation to human development
Marina Fischer-Kowalski
Institute of Social Ecology, ViennaAlpen Adria University
Presentation to the UN Commission for Sustainable Development
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
4 messages I wish to get across
1. Across the globe, we use ever more resources with the help of ever more energy from fossil fuels, thus exhausting the resource base and destabilizing global geo-biospherical cycles.
2. Global resource use (materials and energy) is driven by population, income, development and constrained by population density.
3. Access to resources, and use of resources, is extremely unequal internationally. Without well designed policies, this will result in severe conflicts.
4. At the same time, improving human quality of life is becoming less resource dependent – we can achieve more with less.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Message 1: Centennial resource use explosion
Definition: sociometabolic scale is the size of the overall annual material or primary energy input of a socio-economic system, measured according to established standards of MEFA analysis. For land use, no standard measure of scale is defined.
The sociometabolic scale of the world economy has been increasing by one order of magnitude during the last century:
• Materials use: From 7 billion tons to over 60 bio t (extraction of primary materials annually).
• Energy use: From 44 EJ primary energy to 480 EJ (TPES, commercial energy only).
• Land use: from 25 mio km2 cropland to 50 mio km2
resource use
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
sociometabolic scale:Global commercial energy supply 1900-2005
-
100
200
300
400
500
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
[EJ
]Hydro/Nuclear/Geoth.
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Biofuels
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009
resource use
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
0
20
40
60
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[bill
ion
to
ns]
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
Metabolic scale:Global materials use 1900 to 2005
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009
resource use
biomass
fossil fuels
ores & ind. minerals
construction materials
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Message 2: Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density
• Population numbers
• Rising income (GDP)
• “Development” in the sense of transition from an agrarian to the industrial regime.
• Human settlement patterns: higher population density allows lower resource use
drivers
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Resource use per person = sociometabolic rates:Transitions between stable levels across 20th century
-
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
TP
ES
[GJ/
cap/
yr]
-
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
DM
C [t
/cap
/yr]
TPES/cap (primary y-axis)
DMC/cap (secondary y-axis)
Energy
Materials
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009
drivers
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
sociometabolic rate (materials) and income: loglinear relation, no sign of a “Kuznets curve”
R2 = 0.64
N = 175 countriesYear 2000
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
drivers
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Global metabolic rates grow slower than income („decoupling“)
Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009
-
3
6
9
12
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
0
1,5
3
4,5
6
DMC GDP (const. 2000 $)0
30
60
90
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
0
2
4
6
TPES GDP (const. 2000 $)
Global DMC, t/cap/yr (left axis)
Global TPES, GJ/cap/yr (left axis)
Global GDP, $/cap*yr (right axis)
Global GDP, $/cap*yr (right axis)
drivers
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Resource consumption per capita by development status and population density
Metab.rates: DMC t/cap in yr 2000
-
5
10
15
20
25
High densityindustrial
Low densityindustrial
High densitydeveloping
Low densitydeveloping (NW)
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil fuels
BiomassShare of world population 13% 6% 62% 6%
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
drivers
industrial developing
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Message 3:Access to resources, and use of resources, is
extremely unequal internationally. Without well designed policies, this will result in severe conflicts.
Interwoven problems:• Unequal distribution of natural resources on earth• Corporate control over resources and the depletion of
countries‘ natural capital for little benefit („resource curse“)• Unequal consumption rates of natural resources• Externalization of environmental cost of resource extraction• Global scarcities accellerating (intergenerational problem)
inequality
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Inequality matters very much for our future resource consumption
• The resource use of the wealthy and wasteful works as a model for the resource use of all
inequality
• While the industrial countries‘ resource use stagnates, many countries of the world have started to catch up with these consumption levels
• This is understandable and fair – but, unfortunately, we have only one earth at our disposal.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Three forced future scenarios of resource use
1. Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their metabolic rates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to same rates
2. Moderate contraction & convergence: industrial countries reduce their metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up
3. Tough contraction & convergence: global resource consumption of the year 2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing countries settle for identical metabolic rates
Built into all scenarios: population (by mean UN projection), development transitions, population density as a constraint, stable composition by material groups
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
transitionsinequality
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Projections of resource use up to 2050 – three forced future scenarios
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
transitions
0
50
100
150
19
00
19
25
19
50
19
75
20
00
20
25
20
50
me
tab
olic
sc
ale
[G
t]
Observed data
Freeze & catching up
Factor 2 & catching up
Freeze global DMC
0
6
12
18
19
00
19
25
19
50
19
75
20
00
20
25
20
50
me
tab
olic
ra
te [
t/c
ap
/yr]
Observed data
Freeze & catching up
Factor 2 & catching up
Freeze global DMC
Global metabolic scale (Gt) Global metabolic rate (t/cap)
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Three forced future scenarios of resource use
1. Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their metabolic rates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to same rates
incompatible with IPCC climate protection targets
2. Moderate contraction & convergence: industrial countries reduce their metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up
compatible with moderate IPCC climate protection targets
3. Tough contraction & convergence: global resource consumption of the year 2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing countries settle for identical metabolic rates
compatible with strict IPCC climate protection targets
Built into all scenarios: population (by mean UN projection), development transitions, population density as a constraint, stable composition by material groups
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
transitionsinequality
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Message 4:
a new transition, to a sustainable industrial metabolism, should be directed at human wellbeing!
human wellbeing
And
YES, WE CAN!
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
• Evtl. preston folie einfügen!
human wellbeing
Life expectancy at birth in relation to national income: In 1960, for same life expectancy less than half the income is required than in 1930!
Source: Preston 1975 (2008)
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Human development vs. Carbon emissions
Source: Steinberger & Roberts 2009
20001995
19901985
19801975
R2 = 0,75 – 0,85
Carbon emissions
HDI
2005
human wellbeing