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Climate Change, Forests, & Fire
What Might We Expect?
Carl N. SkinnerProject Leader
USFS Pacific Southwest Research StationRedding, CA
PSW
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Climate Change?Statistical Proof?
There i s on ly one ea r t h !
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Climate Change?Statistical Proof?
4 x CO2Control .5 x CO2 2 x CO2
Study the Past Monitor the PresentModel the Future
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Piecing Together a Picture ofClimate History
Piecing Together a Picture ofClimate History
Ice CoresGas, Isotopes, Dust Sediment Cores
Pollen, Charcoal, Fossils Pack-rat Middens Tree-rings
Ring width, Ring density,Isotopes, Fire scars
Instrumental Record
Ice CoresGas, Isotopes, Dust Sediment Cores
Pollen, Charcoal, Fossils Pack-rat Middens Tree-rings
Ring width, Ring density,Isotopes, Fire scars
Instrumental Record
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Climate is always
changing.
Just sometimes faster
than at other times.
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380
1960-1990
Ice core data
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Globa l Tem pera t u re Trends
Black = Instrumental Record 1861-1990Others = Reconstructed from tree rings
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Global Temperatures8 warmest yrs on record are since 1998
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Climate ChangeTemperatures
Warming
Night vs. Day
Winter vs. Summer
Elevation
Latitude Poles vs. Equator
Warming
Night vs. Day
Winter vs. Summer
Elevation
Latitude Poles vs. Equator
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Water
Snow melt
Earlier / more rapid Stream flow
Dominated more by rain rather than snowMore rapid rain related peaks
Less summer flows
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Climate Change&
Fire
What might we expect?
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The most potent factor in shaping the forest of the region has been, and still is, fire. The general character of the forest,
... in fact almost every phase of its condition has been determined by ...
fire.
J. B. Leiberg1902
Forest conditions in the northern Sierra Nevada, California.
Professional Paper 8, Series H, Forestry, 5.US Geological Survey, GPO, Washington, D.C.
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Havent Fire Regimes and Forestshad to adjust to a warming climate
before?
Havent Fire Regimes and Forestshad to adjust to a warming climate
before?
Neverwhen accompanied by
nearly a century offire suppression!
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Where are we headed?
Fire season getting longer. Fuels keep growing. Greater probability of intense fires.
H e a t O x y g e n
Fuel
FireTriangle
FireTriangle
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Annual Area BurnedWestern States
0.0
0.51.0
1.5
2.02.5
3.0
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Millions of Hectares
0.0
0.51.0
1.5
2.02.5
3.0
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Millions of Hectares
From: Arno & Allison-Bunnell 2002 (1915 to 2000) &National Interagency Fire Center http://www.nifc.gov/fire_info/fire_stats.htmFrom : Arno & Allison-Bunnell 2002 (1915 to 2000) &National Interagency Fire Center http://www.nifc.gov/fire_info/fire_stats.htm
5 *
2.5 **Millions
of Acres
7.5 *
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Mediterranean Climate
Cool/wet Wintersvegetation/fuel
Warm/dry Summerannual fire season
Lightning
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Fire Climate - Precipitation Patterns
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
NORTH PLATTE, NE
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
FLAGSTAFF, AZ
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
YELLOWSTONE LAKE, WY
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
5
10
15
20
REDDING, CA
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Red dots = Lightning Caused FiresBlue dots = Human Caused Fires
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33 Fire Scars
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Taylor & Skinner 2003
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California ~ 4.5 to 12 million acres/yrStephens et al. 2007 FEM
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Of the hundreds of persons who visit the Pacific slope in California every summer to see the mountains, few see more then theimmediate foreground and a haze of smokewhich even the strongest glass is unable to
penetrate.
C. Hart Merriam1898 Visit to Siskiyou CountyChief, Division of Biological Survey
From: Morford 1984
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Stand Structure & Species CompositionChanges over 20th Century
Stand Structure & Species CompositionChanges over 20th Century
Fire exclusion has helpedlead to increasing stand
density.
Fire exclusion has helpedlead to increasing stand
density.
OriginalStandStructure
OriginalStandStructure
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Forest Restoration? What Time Period?
What is your goal?StructureProcess/FunctionResilience
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From: Jones et al. 2001 Science 292: 662-667
Tree-ring Based Fire HistoriesTree-ring Based Fire Histories
Mostly cover the period of~1600 to 1900
Much colder than 20 th Century.
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Tree-ring Evidence of Fire/Climate RelationshipsSkinner, Taylor, Carleton, Stephens
Regions adapted from
Trouet, Taylor,Carleton, & Skinner 2006 GRL
Since 1600, tree-ringevidence suggests that
average temperatureswere associated with fireactivity the higher the
temperature, the morewidespread were thefires across the study
regions.
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Resilience the capacity of a system toabsorb disturbance and
reorganize w hile undergoingchange so as to retain
essentially the same function,structure, identity, andfeedbacks
Folke, C. and others 2004. Regime shifts, resilience, andbiodiversity in ecosystem management. Annual Review
of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 35: 557-581.
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ResilienceForested systems characterized byfire regimes of frequent, mostly
low-moderate intensity fires,
dominated by large, long-livedtrees, are considered resilient ifthe forested landscape exhibits a
generally forested condition,including larger trees, shortly
following an event such as fire.
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Surface Fuels Ladder Fuels
Crown Fuels Large Fire Resistant
Trees
Agee & Skinner 2005Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments.
Forest Ecology & Management 211: 83-96
Stand ScalePriorities for Fuels Assessments
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19821982
19921992
19941994
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Climate Change, Fire,
&
CarbonZhang, Powers, Skinner
The following slides are based on preliminary,unpublished data. It is subject to further revision
before publication.
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Com ponent s o f C in fo res t ec osys t em s above ground
Deadt r e e sDeadt r e e s
U n d e r s t o r y Do w n w o odDo w n w o od
L i v e t r e e sL i v e t r e e s
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Carbon in fo res t f loor and be low ground .
Forest FloorForest FloorCoarse RootsCoarse Roots
Lateral RootsLateral RootsMineral SoilMineral Soil
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The Whi t m ore Garden o f Eden St udyW.M Beaty & Associates
F
HI
Ctrl
HFI
FI
F
HF
H
F
I
HFI HF HF
H H Ctrl Ctrl
F
HF
H
F
HF
H
H
FCtrl
Ctrl
HF
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F
Destructive
sampling at 21 years
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Whole St and Carbon a t Age 21
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
C F H HF
C
b
(Mg
h
Fores t f l oor U nders t o ry Live t ree
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Message #1:
Managed s t ands s t o r em o re l i ve t r ee c a rb on
t h an u nm a na ge d s t a nd s
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What about climate change?
Pr e c i p i t a t i o n d e c r e as e Tem p e ra t u r e i nc r e as e B o t h
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Cl im at e Change Effec t s on
Aboveground B iom ass a t age 21
C(43.4)
F(89.7)
H(125.2)
HF(148.7)
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
C
(%)
-25% ppt
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Cl im at e Change Effec t s on
Aboveground B iom ass a t age 21
C(43.4)
F(89.7)
H(125.2)
HF(148.7)
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
C
(%)
-25% pp t +2C
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Cl im at e Change Effec t s on
Aboveground B iom ass a t age 21
-1 6
-1 2
-8
-4
0
C
(%)
-25% ppt +2C -25%ppt +2C
C(43.4)
F(89.7)
H(125.2)
HF(148.7)
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Message #2:
Unm anaged s t ands a r em o re s en s i t i ve t o g lo ba lw a rm i ng in t e rm s of l i ve
t r ee c a rb on
Fores t f loor U nders t ory Live t ree
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What about
WholeS tandCarbon
af t e r Fi r e?
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
C F H HF
C
b
(Mgh
U nders t o ry L iv e t ree
2644
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
C F H HF
Cb
(Mgh
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Message #3:
Managed s t ands a r e m orer es i l ie nt t o w i ld f i re int e rm s of t o t a l s t and
c a r b o n
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Conclusions
Managed s t ands w i l l seques t e r m o r e c a r bo n i n t h e t r e esrega rd les s o f s t and ages . Treec a rb on i s m u c h m o re s t a bl e in
r e sp o ns e t o f i r e an d c l i m a t ec hange t han ot he r abovegrounde c o s ys t e m c o m p o ne nt s
Managing fo re s t s appear s t o be ap ar t i c u la r l y i m p or t a nt t o ol t o
m i t i g at e c l i m a t e c h an ge
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Where are we headed?
Fire season getting longer. Fuels keep growing.
Greater probability of intensefires.
C l i m a t
e W e a t h e r
Vegetation
FireTriangle
FireTriangle
Fi
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Fire:A Catalyst
For Change?
From M RitchieFrom M. Ritchie
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Thank You!Thank You!
1 2 i n c h e s
From M. Ritchie& T. Hamilton
From M. Ritchie& T. Hamilton