Global WarmingGlobal Warmingand Scienceand Science
April 21, 2008April 21, 2008
Dr. Nicholas DrapelaDr. Nicholas DrapelaDepartment of Chemistry,Department of Chemistry,Oregon State UniversityOregon State University
Who Am I?Who Am I?
Current Faculty, OSU Chemistry DepartmentCurrent Faculty, OSU Chemistry Department EducationEducation
– B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and PhysicsB.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics– Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product
SynthesisSynthesis Not a RepublicanNot a Republican Own no stocks in oil companies (or any Own no stocks in oil companies (or any
other companies)other companies) Love the outdoors and the environmentLove the outdoors and the environment Love polar bears and clean air and waterLove polar bears and clean air and water
Why This Talk?Why This Talk?
The Global Warming social The Global Warming social phenomenonphenomenon
The Global Warming mysteryThe Global Warming mystery– Scientific perspectivesScientific perspectives– Journalistic perspectivesJournalistic perspectives
A story of discoveryA story of discovery
Truth – Some thoughtsTruth – Some thoughts
The truth has no agendaThe truth has no agenda The truth is not dependent on The truth is not dependent on
consensus, real or artificialconsensus, real or artificial The challenge of finding the truthThe challenge of finding the truth
Science – The FocusScience – The Focus
This talk focuses on the This talk focuses on the sciencescience behind Global Warmingbehind Global Warming
Next week’s talk: Sociopolitical Next week’s talk: Sociopolitical aspectsaspects
These talks are intended for These talks are intended for general audiencesgeneral audiences
Introductory PointsIntroductory Points
Successful societal endeavors Successful societal endeavors must be based on factual must be based on factual information, not popularityinformation, not popularity
Any new theory bears the burden Any new theory bears the burden of proof, not the other way of proof, not the other way aroundaround
Part 1Part 1
What is global warming?What is global warming?
Global WarmingGlobal Warming
The The unnaturalunnatural warming of the warming of the entire earth, caused by increases entire earth, caused by increases in in carbon dioxidecarbon dioxide due to due to human human activitiesactivities, which is a , which is a threat to life threat to life on earthon earth as we know it. as we know it.
Key points:Key points:– Caused by COCaused by CO22
– produced by human activityproduced by human activity– represents serious threat to the represents serious threat to the
earthearth
http://www.ems.psu.edu/~fraser/Bad/BadGreenhouse.html
What Makes Up This What Makes Up This Greenhouse?Greenhouse?
Gases in our atmosphere which Gases in our atmosphere which absorb IR waves and radiate absorb IR waves and radiate some of the heat back toward the some of the heat back toward the earthearth– MethaneMethane– Nitrous oxideNitrous oxide– ChlorofluorocarbonsChlorofluorocarbons
– Carbon dioxide (COCarbon dioxide (CO22))
Global Warming Global Warming DoctrineDoctrine
Modern society burns fossil fuels such asModern society burns fossil fuels such as– Gasoline, natural gas, coalGasoline, natural gas, coal
All of these give off COAll of these give off CO22 as they burn as they burn
The added COThe added CO22 in the atmosphere increases in the atmosphere increases the greenhouse effect on the earththe greenhouse effect on the earth
This is increasing the temperature of the This is increasing the temperature of the earth beyond its normal rangeearth beyond its normal range
Soon, this will result in disastrous Soon, this will result in disastrous consequences for life on earthconsequences for life on earth
The only way to avoid this is to reduce world The only way to avoid this is to reduce world COCO22 emissions emissions
Predictions From Predictions From Global WarmingGlobal Warming
Rising sea levelsRising sea levels Massive droughtMassive drought Food shortagesFood shortages Species extinctionSpecies extinction Severe natural Severe natural
disastersdisasters Disease, famine, Disease, famine,
deathdeath
http://climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/global_warming_predictions
http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/science/arcticReport.cfm
Global Warming Global Warming PhilosophyPhilosophy
This is an This is an existential existential world world crisiscrisis
We are We are running running out of out of timetime
Part 2Part 2
None of this is trueNone of this is true
PreviewPreview
There is no factual evidence to show There is no factual evidence to show that the earth is now above its that the earth is now above its normal, historical temperature range.normal, historical temperature range.
There is no factual evidence to show There is no factual evidence to show that it soon will be, or ever will be.that it soon will be, or ever will be.
Even if it were, COEven if it were, CO22 could not be could not be causing it.causing it.
COCO22 Is Not a Pollutant Is Not a Pollutant
It is a critical part of the biosphereIt is a critical part of the biosphere Without COWithout CO22, life could not exist, life could not exist Asbestos, dioxin, chlorofluorocarbons, Asbestos, dioxin, chlorofluorocarbons,
heavy metal ions, organomercury heavy metal ions, organomercury compounds…these are pollutantscompounds…these are pollutants
=
Fact #1Fact #1 There is indeed a greenhouse effect There is indeed a greenhouse effect
on the earth; and that is goodon the earth; and that is good If there were not, the earth’s If there were not, the earth’s
temperature would drop by roughly temperature would drop by roughly 6060°F, ending life as we know it on °F, ending life as we know it on earthearth
Fact #2Fact #2
Global Warming theory is based on Global Warming theory is based on modelsmodels, not on evidence, not on evidence
These computer models are made These computer models are made up by people, and are limited byup by people, and are limited by– the programmerthe programmer– our scientific knowledgeour scientific knowledge– the ethics of the people who invent the ethics of the people who invent
themthemhttp://www.physorg.com/news593.html
The The Famous Famous Hockey Hockey StickStick
The only The only irregular irregular part of the part of the graph is the graph is the model, not model, not the datathe data
McIntyre, Stephen; Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters 2005, 2, 32
Fact #3Fact #3 These models have These models have
already shown to be already shown to be incorrectincorrect
Model prediction: Model prediction: Troposphere warmingTroposphere warming
Actual fact: No Actual fact: No significant troposphere significant troposphere warming is occurringwarming is occurring– Balloon and satellite Balloon and satellite
data agree on this data agree on this independentlyindependentlyhttp://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200205/NAT20020514b.html
HurricanesHurricanes Model prediction: 2006 Model prediction: 2006
worst hurricane year on worst hurricane year on recordrecord
Actual fact: 2006, Actual fact: 2006, 2007 two of the 2007 two of the calmest hurricane calmest hurricane seasons in historyseasons in history
Many other model Many other model failures existfailures exist
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/11/30/hurricanes/index.html
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-11-30-hurricane-cycle_x.htm
Past PredictionsPast Predictions ““In ten years all important In ten years all important
animal life in the sea will be animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be coastline will have to be evacuated because of the evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.”stench of dead fish.”– Paul Ehrlich, Center for Paul Ehrlich, Center for
Conservation Biology, Conservation Biology, Stanford UniversityStanford University
– Predicted in 1970Predicted in 1970
Fact #4Fact #4
Global warming predictions Global warming predictions commonly change to fit whatever commonly change to fit whatever data is most recently discovereddata is most recently discovered– More rain, then less rainMore rain, then less rain– Ice cap melting, then ice cap growingIce cap melting, then ice cap growing– Drought, then floodingDrought, then flooding
No piece of information can be used No piece of information can be used to disprove the doctrineto disprove the doctrine
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070531_gw_rainfall.html
Fact #5Fact #5 Weather records show that increased Weather records show that increased
human COhuman CO22 emissions have been emissions have been linked to linked to decreaseddecreased earth earth temperatures from 1940-1980temperatures from 1940-1980
Fact #6Fact #6 The amount of COThe amount of CO22 released and absorbed released and absorbed
by oceans each year dwarfs the amount by oceans each year dwarfs the amount emitted by humansemitted by humans
93% of all CO93% of all CO22 in the earth and its in the earth and its atmosphere is contained in the oceanatmosphere is contained in the ocean
http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Dioxide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html
Fact #7Fact #7
When oceans When oceans warm, they warm, they release COrelease CO22
This is why This is why [CO[CO22] has ] has increased and increased and decreased decreased over timeover time
Inconveniently Inconveniently SeparatedSeparated
TemperatureTemperature/CO/CO22 correlation in correlation in ice core ice core records from records from “An “An Inconvenient Inconvenient Truth”Truth”
Why are the Why are the graphs graphs separated?separated?
COCO22 Levels Follow Temp Levels Follow Temp ChangesChanges
Note on close inspection that CONote on close inspection that CO22 lags lags behindbehind temperature, not the reverse temperature, not the reverse
(Also note that CO(Also note that CO22 levels have been levels have been naturally varying for eons w/o human naturally varying for eons w/o human fossil fuel emissions)fossil fuel emissions)
Fact #8Fact #8 The most abundant greenhouse gas in the The most abundant greenhouse gas in the
atmosphere, by far,…is water vaporatmosphere, by far,…is water vapor 95% of heat trapped in the troposphere is 95% of heat trapped in the troposphere is
due to water vapordue to water vapor
http://www.geyserlandobservatory.org/atmosphere/atmosphere.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/environment/appd_d.html
Fact #9Fact #9 Other planets in our solar system are Other planets in our solar system are
warming as wellwarming as well Numerous studies are showing that Numerous studies are showing that
Mars, Jupiter, Neptune, and the moon Mars, Jupiter, Neptune, and the moon Triton are all warmingTriton are all warming
http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global-warming-on-jupiter.html
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-05-04-jupiter-jr-spot_x.htm?POE=TECISVA
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml
http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtml
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton.html
Martian IcecapsMartian Icecaps The icecaps on Mars are meltingThe icecaps on Mars are melting If COIf CO22 is the culprit, why is Mars also is the culprit, why is Mars also
warming?warming?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html
Martian WarmingMartian Warming "Mars has global warming, "Mars has global warming,
but without a greenhouse but without a greenhouse and without the and without the participation of Martians.”participation of Martians.”– Dr. Habibullo AbdussamatovDr. Habibullo Abdussamatov
Director, Space Research Director, Space Research LaboratoryLaboratoryPulkovo Astronomical Pulkovo Astronomical ObservatoryObservatoryRussian Academy of ScienceRussian Academy of Science
http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0
Fact #10Fact #10 In the last 4 months, almost all “lost” In the last 4 months, almost all “lost”
polar ice has returnedpolar ice has returned This fact is reported by the National This fact is reported by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Administration (NOAA)
http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/global_warming_or_cooling/2008/02/19/73798.html
Growing Growing Ice CapsIce Caps
““The ice between Canada and southwestern The ice between Canada and southwestern Greenland has reached its highest level in 15 Greenland has reached its highest level in 15 years.”years.”– Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008
Levels of Antarctic ice are also increased—one Levels of Antarctic ice are also increased—one third higher than normal for this time of yearthird higher than normal for this time of year
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/lynn-davidson/2008/02/16/western-greenland-ice-growing-still-global-warming
Polar Bear PartyPolar Bear Party Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear
numbers are increasingnumbers are increasing Canadian government survey: Polar bear Canadian government survey: Polar bear
population has increased 250% in last 20 population has increased 250% in last 20 yearsyears
The indigenous Inuit people report the sameThe indigenous Inuit people report the same
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1ea8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868
Fact #11Fact #11 When compared with larger-When compared with larger-
timeframe historical temperatures, timeframe historical temperatures, current earth temperatures are in the current earth temperatures are in the normal rangenormal range
Poor Sample of Poor Sample of History?History? ““We have made ourselves a very We have made ourselves a very
poor experiment, because poor experiment, because instrumental meteorological instrumental meteorological observations started precisely at the observations started precisely at the lowest temperature observed in the lowest temperature observed in the past 10,000 years.”past 10,000 years.”– JJørgen Peder Steffensen,ørgen Peder Steffensen,
Curator Geophysics,Curator Geophysics,
Niels Bohr InstituteNiels Bohr Institute
Confirming DataConfirming Data
C-14 samples from tree rings and C-14 samples from tree rings and peat bogs confirm this historical peat bogs confirm this historical temperature patterntemperature pattern
So do data from stalactite caves So do data from stalactite caves in China and North Africain China and North Africa
Fact #12Fact #12 Global Warming Theory arose Global Warming Theory arose
essentially overnight, as a political essentially overnight, as a political product of the United Nations, with product of the United Nations, with little or no scientific scrutinylittle or no scientific scrutiny
Graphic from 1990 report by International Panel on Climate Change
Historical Records and Historical Records and AccountsAccounts Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1100-Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1100-
1400 AD)1400 AD) Little Ice Age (ca. 1600-1800 AD)Little Ice Age (ca. 1600-1800 AD)
Mann’s Hockey Stick, Mann’s Hockey Stick, 19981998 Dr. Michael Mann, Adjunct Asst. Dr. Michael Mann, Adjunct Asst.
Professor, University of MassachusettsProfessor, University of Massachusetts
A Memory Hole?A Memory Hole?
In Mann’s paper, the Medieval Warm In Mann’s paper, the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age became non-Period and Little Ice Age became non-eventsevents
Selective data is chosen and displayed Selective data is chosen and displayed alongside speculative statistical dataalongside speculative statistical data
““An increasing body of observations gives a An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system.”other changes in the climate system.”– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), 2001, Lead Author – Michael Mann(IPCC), 2001, Lead Author – Michael Mann
The IPCCThe IPCC
The International Panel on Climate The International Panel on Climate Change is a body of the United Change is a body of the United NationsNations
It is not a scientific body; it is a It is not a scientific body; it is a politicalpolitical body body
Climate Change Climate Change AuthorityAuthority The IPCC is a self-appointed world The IPCC is a self-appointed world
authority on climate changeauthority on climate change The structure of the IPCC, 1990The structure of the IPCC, 1990
– Working Group 1 (Science)Working Group 1 (Science)– Working Group 2 (Sociology, Working Group 2 (Sociology,
Economics)Economics)– Working Group 3 (Public Policy)Working Group 3 (Public Policy)
The curious role of scientists in the The curious role of scientists in the IPCCIPCC
IPCC on ItselfIPCC on Itself
““The IPCC work aims at the The IPCC work aims at the promotion of the United Nations promotion of the United Nations goals.”goals.”
““When governments accept IPCC When governments accept IPCC reports, they acknowledge their reports, they acknowledge their legitimacy.”legitimacy.”
““The IPCC produces regular reports The IPCC produces regular reports which immediately become which immediately become standard works of reference.”standard works of reference.”
http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm
Global Warming in the Global Warming in the MediaMedia20062006
Fact #13Fact #13
Despite strenuous and expensive Despite strenuous and expensive propaganda attempts to claim propaganda attempts to claim consensus and the end of debate, consensus and the end of debate, Global Warming theory is becoming Global Warming theory is becoming less scientifically accepted each yearless scientifically accepted each year
2008 International Conference on 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, New YorkClimate Change, New York– March 2-4, 2008March 2-4, 2008
Non-BelieversNon-Believers
John Coleman, Founder of the John Coleman, Founder of the Weather ChannelWeather Channel
Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of GreenpeaceGreenpeace
Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Meteorology and climate expertMeteorology and climate expert
Dr. Willile Soon, Harvard PhysicistDr. Willile Soon, Harvard Physicisthttp://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/comments_about_global_warming/
http://www.basinelectric.com/NewsCenter/News/FeaturedArticles/Greenpeace_founder_d.html
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=16260
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/26945
Weather Channel Weather Channel FounderFounder
““It is the greatest scam It is the greatest scam in history. I am in history. I am amazed, appalled, and amazed, appalled, and highly offended by it. highly offended by it. Global Warming; it is a Global Warming; it is a scam.”scam.”– John ColemanJohn Coleman
MIT MeteorologistMIT Meteorologist
““(The IPCC) has decided (The IPCC) has decided that they have to that they have to convince other people convince other people that since no scientist that since no scientist disagrees you shouldn’t disagrees you shouldn’t disagree either. disagree either. Whenever you hear that Whenever you hear that in science, it’s pure in science, it’s pure propaganda.”propaganda.”– Prof. Richard LindzenProf. Richard Lindzen
Geodynamics Geodynamics ProfessorProfessor
““In my position, I can hardly find In my position, I can hardly find anyone who would subscribe to anyone who would subscribe to the IPCC scenario.”the IPCC scenario.”– Prof. Nils-Axel MProf. Nils-Axel Mörner,örner,
Dept. of PaleogeophysicsDept. of Paleogeophysics
and Geodynamics,and Geodynamics,
Stockholm UniversityStockholm University
Harvard AstrophysicistHarvard Astrophysicist
““The question is why are flawed The question is why are flawed models used as a basis for models used as a basis for enormously expensive policy enormously expensive policy decisions, far-reaching policy decisions, far-reaching policy decisions. They shouldn’t be.”decisions. They shouldn’t be.”– Dr. Sallie Baliunas,Dr. Sallie Baliunas,
Astrophysics,Astrophysics,
Harvard UniversityHarvard University
World Climate ExpertWorld Climate Expert
““The science we’re being told by The science we’re being told by the IPCC is really incorrect the IPCC is really incorrect science. Somehow the IPCC has science. Somehow the IPCC has become a global warming Bible, if become a global warming Bible, if you will. You can’t disagree.”you will. You can’t disagree.”– Dr. David LeGatesDr. David LeGates
Center for Climatic ResearchCenter for Climatic Research
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware
Fact #14Fact #14
Your observations are validYour observations are valid Facts surround usFacts surround us
– Deep freeze over US and southern Asia Deep freeze over US and southern Asia set records the past few Wintersset records the past few Winters
– Much of citrus crop in California and Much of citrus crop in California and Florida was destroyed by iceFlorida was destroyed by ice
– Record lows have been observed world-Record lows have been observed world-wide in the last few yearswide in the last few years
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/02/11/minnesota.cold.ap/
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/news/April7thwinterwx.html
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/02/brrrr-260-dead-in-south-asia-pakistan.html
Part 3Part 3
Where does this leave us?Where does this leave us?
So it’s wrong…so So it’s wrong…so what?what? Trillions of dollars, and billions of hours Trillions of dollars, and billions of hours
of labor and effort are being squanderedof labor and effort are being squandered This money and effort could be used forThis money and effort could be used for
– Reducing Reducing realreal pollutants pollutants– Fighting povertyFighting poverty– Treating AIDS and malariaTreating AIDS and malaria– Providing adequate drinking water and Providing adequate drinking water and
medical treatmentmedical treatment Public policy which attempts to correct Public policy which attempts to correct
this non-existent problem could literally this non-existent problem could literally cause millions of people to diecause millions of people to die
Social ReactionSocial Reaction
Cognitive dissonanceCognitive dissonance Stages of reaction:Stages of reaction: 1. Anger1. Anger 2. Bigotry2. Bigotry 3. Resentment3. Resentment 4. Frustration4. Frustration 5. Re-evaluation5. Re-evaluation 6. Self-education6. Self-education 7. Activism7. Activism
Concluding Points Concluding Points
1. Time is the best friend of the truth1. Time is the best friend of the truth 2. No cause is served well by misinformation2. No cause is served well by misinformation 3. Do not throw out the baby with the 3. Do not throw out the baby with the
bathwater:bathwater:– The environment is importantThe environment is important– Climate science is important, useful, and Climate science is important, useful, and
fascinatingfascinating– Global Warming claims are fraudulentGlobal Warming claims are fraudulent– COCO22 is a political tool, not a pollutant is a political tool, not a pollutant
There are many worthy causes. Choose There are many worthy causes. Choose one, research it, and take it up, and make a one, research it, and take it up, and make a realreal difference difference
World Malaria Day, April World Malaria Day, April 2525
Malaria kills more Malaria kills more than 1 million than 1 million innocent lives each innocent lives each yearyear
A child dies every 30 A child dies every 30 seconds from malariaseconds from malaria
It is preventable and It is preventable and treatabletreatable
http://www.worldvision.org/donate.nsf/child/sg_march08_pharm?Open&campaign=1038070&cmp=EMC-1038070&ppi=30433669
Next Monday’s TalkNext Monday’s Talk
““Global Warming Cracked Open: Global Warming Cracked Open: A Peek Inside”A Peek Inside”
7pm, here in this room7pm, here in this room Talk will address:Talk will address:
– Who would want us to believe this Who would want us to believe this and why?and why?
– Who benefits from global warming?Who benefits from global warming?– What are some of the motivations What are some of the motivations
and tactics used to push this story?and tactics used to push this story?
Thank YouThank You
Questions?Questions?