© OECD/IEA 2012
Global Energy Outlook and the implications for Africa
Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief Economist International Energy Agency
18th Meeting of the Africa Partnership Forum
Paris, 25 April 2012
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The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends
Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy & limited the means of intervention
High oil prices – a major risk for the global economy
Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty
CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high
Durban was a step forward, but is yet to make a noticeable impact on investment
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High oil prices put a particular strain on the Least Developed Countries
The oil import burden of sub-Saharan Africa countries rose to $18 billion in 2011, swamping their ODA by around 40%; the situation may worsen in 2012 if prices stay at current levels
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
2009 2010 2011
$ b
illion Oil imports Bill
ODA
© OECD/IEA 2011
Africa: 15% of the world's population consuming around 5% of its energy
Africa’s share of the global population increases from 15% in 2009 to 20% in 2035, but its share of global energy demand declines fractionally to 5.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2010 2035 2010 2035
Share of global population
Share of global energy demand
Africa OECD
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Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important
Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035
Additional to 2035
2010
World primary energy demand
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear
Mto
e
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Existing and announced policies will not halt the rise in CO2 emissions
World energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario
If governments follow through on their policy commitments, the temperature rise will be 3.5 ⁰C; otherwise we are on an even more dangerous track, for an increase of 6°C or more
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Current Policies Scenario
New Policies Scenario
20
25
30
35
40
45
Gt
6⁰ C
3.5⁰ C
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Not all regions are major contributors to CO2 emissions
Africa constitutes 15% of the global population, but just 3% of global CO2-emissions
China
26%
US
18%
EU
12% India + other
dev Asia 9%
Russia
5%
Japan
4%
Latin
America 4%
Africa
3%
Rest of the
World 19%
2010 30.4 Gt CO2
© OECD/IEA 2011
0
3
6
9
12
OECD China Latin America India Africa
Tonnes
Per capita CO2 emissions fail to converge
Africa’s low per capita emissions (just 10% of the OECD average) reflects its low per capita energy consumption, and heavy reliance on traditional biomass
2035
2010
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Energy poverty is widespread
31
8
85
653
836
423
661
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa China
India
Rest of developing
Asia
289 379
585
In Sub-Saharan Africa only 30% of the population has access to electricity,
in rural areas the share drops to 14%
Million people without electricity
Million people without clean cooking facilities
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Modern energy brings health benefits
Clean cooking facilities would prevent the majority of deaths attributable
to indoor air pollution from burning biomass
Premature annual deaths from household air pollution and selected diseases
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2008 2030
Malaria
2008 2030
Tuberculosis
2008 2030
Smoke from biomass
2008 2030
HIV/AIDS
Mill
ion
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Investment today is far from enough
To achieve Energy for All, investment needs to grow more than five-times to $48 billion a year – half of which in sub-Saharan Africa
$9.1 billion was invested in energy access in 2009
Bilateral Official Development Assistance
Multilateral organisations
Developing country governments
14%
34%
31%
22%
Private sector finance
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Annual investment needed to address energy poverty
Sub-Saharan Africa
Additional investment of $18.5 billion needed yearly up to 2030, to provide electricity to almost 600 million people currently without access
Electricity Access
Isolated off-grid and mini-grid On-grid
0
5
10
15
20
$18.5 billion
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Implications of modern energy for all
Achieving modern energy for all would not have significant negative effects on energy security or climate change
0
5
10
15
20
World energy demand
2030
Bill
ion
to
nn
es o
f o
il eq
uiv
alen
t
0
10
20
30
40
Gig
ato
nn
es
World CO2
emissions 2030
1.1% 0.7% Additional energy demand in the
Energy for All Case
Additional CO2 emissions in the Energy for All Case
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All fuels have a role to play
A range of technical solutions using different sources of energy is required
62%
38%
On-grid 226 TWh
Fossil fuels
Renewables
9%
91%
Mini-grid & off-grid
278 TWh
Generation mix for universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa
© OECD/IEA 2011
Concluding remarks
Development in the “rich” economies came on the back of oil prices that averaged just $13 per barrel
Efforts to catch-up by the Least Developed Countries are being hamstrung by prices some 10-times higher
Providing modern energy access for all is achievable & would have only a minor impact on global energy demand & emissions
Africa needs investment of $18.5 billion per year to 2030 to bring electricity to the 600 million people that currently lack access
All sources & forms of investment need to grow considerably to meet target
The World Energy Outlook has highlighted energy access for a decade & will continue to do so