International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Kosi Basin ProgrammeDeveloping an evidence base in the transboundary Koshi river basin to address impacts from climatic and socio-economic drivers
Garrett Kilroy, Arun Shrestha, Sagar Bajracharya, Kiran Hunzai
Overview
• Context and planning• Preparatory phase• Characteristics and Issues in basin• Koshi programme outline• Next steps
Context of Koshi Basin
On-going relevant activities
• Third Pole Environment• Geo-PACC (CAS)• Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment (World Bank)• Ganges River Basin Management Plan (India)• Koshi basin river basin management (WECS and
WWF-Nepal)• Sacred Himalayan Landscape Strategic Plan 2006-
2016• PAPRIKA – Agence Nationale de la Research (French)• Water storage – IWMI and University of British
Columbia
Koshi River Basin
Preparatory Phase Partners
China
• Institute of Mountain Hazard & Environment (Chinese Academy of Sciences & CN-ICIMOD)
• IGNSRR (GEO-PACC), CAREERI, CIB
Nepal
• Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS)
• Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
• Tribhuvan University
Regional:
• ICIMOD
Preparatory phase: planning
1. Vision
For Koshi Basin by
ICIMOD and Partners
2. Situation Analysis
Characteristics of the Koshi, Key
Issues, & Gaps
3. Programme Choice
Priorities identified
4. Draft Programme Plan
Stakeholder and Partner Approval
6. Implementation
of Programme Plan
7. Monitoring and
Evaluation
Assess Progress Revise
Programme
5. Proposal Development
e.g. ESPA
Preparatory Phase
Fully Fledged Programme
Preparatory phase: activities
• Develop partnerships• Workshops and field mission• Identify key issues and areas for collaboration
– Glaciers, glacial lakes, water resources & hazards; – Biodiversity;– Land use and land cover change;– Socio-economic development and regional development.
• Collate previous and on-going work in the Koshi Basin• Develop programme in the Koshi basin• Explore funding opportunities, e.g. UK-funded ESPA: wider
partnerships, IIT-Delhi
Key Issues – (1) glaciers/water/storage/hazards
No. of Glacial lakes in Koshi(Nepal)2001 20091062 599
Change between 2001 and 2009Nos. Area-44% 3%
Source:
Ives, Shrestha &
Mool, 2010
Different hydrological systems
1
10
100
1000
10000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Percent of time specified discharge was
equalled or exceeded
Disc
harg
e (c
ubic
met
res/
sec)
Sun Koshi Arun Tamur Bagmati
1
10
100
1000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Percent of time specified discharge was equalled
or exceeded
Disc
harg
e as
pro
porti
on o
f bas
in a
rea
X 10
00
Sun Koshi Arun Tamur Bagmati
Data: 1962-1995, Department of Hydrology & Meteorology
Average monthly water yieldat Chatara (Saptakoshi)SWAT modelling, PRECIS
• General increase in water yield
• More increase in wet season
• Possible shift in peak month
• Large uncertainties:– Global datasets– No consideration of
future LU change– Limited hydromet
data
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Wat
erYi
eld
(mm
)
B2 scenario A2 scena
Source: Gosain, Shrestha & Rao (2010)
Groundwater inputs
Data: www.whymap.org
Sediments
Key Issues – (2) Biodiversity and land use/cover
Protected Areas
Hands Around Everest Project, 2003
Key Issues – (3) Socio-economic / development
Socio-economic Indicators in Nepal
Population below
Total Poverty Line
0
10
20
30
40
50
Upper KoshiDistricts
Nepal
Pop
. und
er th
e To
tal P
over
ty L
ine
(%)
1996 2003
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Upper KoshiDistricts
Nepal
Pop
. und
er th
e N
on-fo
od P
over
ty L
ine
(%)
1996 2003
0
10
20
30
40
50
Upper KoshiDistricts
Nepal
Pop
. und
er th
e Fo
od P
over
ty L
ine
(%)
1996 2003
Population below
Food Poverty Line
Population below
Non-Food Poverty Line
National Living Standards Survey, 2003 and 2006
Draft Koshi Programme
Overall Goal:• To contribute to an evidence base on
how climatic and socio-economic drivers impact on the inter-relationships between natural and human systems to allow for the development of integrated responses to protect ecosystems and reduce poverty.
Draft Conceptual Framework
Draft Programme Work Areas
1. Coordination, integration and data management2. Climatic, cryospheric and hydrological characterization, monitoring and
modeling3. Basin wide socio-economic sectoral analysis of water and land use:
baseline and future projections4. Water related hazard assessment and management; including sediments,
GLOF, flash floods, landslide and drought5. Biodiversity and ecosystem services; status characterization and
degradation assessment6. Evaluation of different water storage components (natural and man-made)7. Water availability and efficiency in the agricultural sector 8. Adaptation and livelihood strategy development for impacts from climatic
and socio-economic drivers9. Development of integrated policies and strategies for governments,
international donor community, NGOs and CBOs
Next Steps
• Conclusion of preparatory phase:– Final workshop Spring 2011– Joint reports– Koshi basin information system– Koshi programme finalised
• Partnership Development:– Consolidation of Chinese and Nepali partners– Development of new partners, especially India
• Exploration of funding opportunities:– UK Environmental Services for Poverty Alleviation– Research Consortium developed, Write-Shop December 2010
• Third Pole Environment: – Koshi River Basin programme will be a beneficiary and contributor
Thank you