Photo: Jake Davis
Frank T. van Manen U.S. Geological Survey Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team
Overview
• Background
• Bigger picture
• The bear part
Photos: Jake Davis Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Background
• IGBC winter meeting 2018
• IGBC Advisors formed a working group • Reviewed 2009 Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team
report (detailed assessment of conflicts/mortalities and recommendations)
• IGBC Chair requested subcommittees conduct similar reviews
• Identify priority issues, develop strategies and implementation plan
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Time line
• Summer 2019 IGBC: preliminary list of priority issues
• Winter 2019 IGBC: recommendations to address priorities
• Summer 2020 IGBC: final implementation strategies
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Source: IGBC
North Cascades
Yellowstone
Northern Continental
Divide
Bitterroot
Selkirk
Cabinet-Yaak
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Working Across Ecosystems
Selkirk and Cabinet-Yaak
1) defense of life or property
2) management related
3) mistaken ID
4) poaching/malicious killing
5) train/auto collisions
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Northern Continental Divide
1) shooting related
2) automobile strikes
3) train strikes
4) site-related conflicts
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Yellowstone
1) hunters and backcountry users
2) front country and community planning
3) efficacy of education and outreach
4) livestock producer outreach
5) targeted community outreach
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Big Picture:
Convergence of factors
Photo: Jessica Hadley/NPS Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
The degree of one's emotions varies inversely with one's knowledge of the facts. --Bertrand Russell
Photo: Jake Davis
Photo: F. van Manen/IGBST Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Factor #1:
Recovery
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Occupied Range
• 68,736 km2
• 98% of DMA occupied
• 30% outside DMA
• ~12,000 km2 private land
GYE: Occupied range
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution Source: IGBST
2004-2018
Factor #2:
Socioeconomic Trends
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Northwest: economic growth, 2001-2010
Source: Headwaters Economics
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Northwest: change in residential area, 2001-2010
Source: Headwaters Economics
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Source: Headwaters Economics Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
New homes, 1990-2016
80 km (50 miles)
Current occupied
range
&
Observations beyond
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Sources: IGBST, NCDE, CY/S technical teams
Factor #3:
Outdoor Recreation Trends
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Northwest: recreation counties, since 2010
Source: Headwaters Economics
Source: Headwaters Economics
Trail and pathway use, summer 2017, Flathead Co., MT
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Photo: Jessica Hadley/NPS Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Understanding
the Bear Part
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Human Caused AgencyRemoval
Natural Undetermined
1999-2008 2009-2018
NCDE: proportion of grizzly bear mortalities 1999-2008 vs. 2009-2018
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution Source: NCDE Technical Team
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
AnthropogenicFood
Augmentation LivestockDepredation
Other PropertyDamage
1999-2008 2009-2018
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
NCDE: proportion of agency grizzly bear removals 1999-2008 vs. 2009-2018
Source: NCDE Technical Team
GYE: Documented mortalities 2009-2018
• 26 natural
• 299 human-caused • 24 undetermined
• 349 total
Source: IGBST
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
GYE: estimated % total mortality of independent (≥2 yrs) grizzly bears 2002‒2018 (DMA only)
0
20
40
60
80
10020
02
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Perc
en
t m
ort
ality
Year
Independent females
Independent males
Female average = 7.0% Male average = 9.7% Source: IGBST Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
71% male
67% male
61% male
GYE: human-caused mortalities by category and sex 2009-2018
Source: IGBST Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
34% subadult, mean age = 8
24% subadult, mean age = 9
GYE: human-caused mortalities by category and age 2009-2018
21% subadult, mean age = 12
Source: IGBST Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Photo: Jake Davis
• Conflict trends likely here to stay
• Grizzly bear populations not in a crisis
• Issues are real - balancing act
• Strategic, multi-ecosystem & science-based approach
• Key role of IGBC and partner agencies
The Take-Aways
Preliminary Information-Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution