8/6/2019 Forex Market Insight 28 July 2011
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Market Insights 28 July 2011
USD higher, equities sold, as risk aversion finally kicks in
AUD, NZD both make new record highs before late reversal; BNZ keeps rates on hold
EUR sharply lower as German finance minister warns ‘no blank cheque’
BoJ board member Kamezaki warns Japan will take ‘proactive’ action on yen gains
US share markets hit by heavy selling, Dow falls 1.6%
US employment numbers due at 10.30pm likely to take back seat to debt negotiations
Headlines
AUD/USD
XAU/USD
Resistance
1.1080
Support
1.1010Market Sentiment
Bullish
The Aussie surged to new post-float highs after yesterday’s higher-than-expected CPI numbers. The market has since pulledback to support at 1.1010 and traders will be looking to take new longs while we trade above 1.1010. A break below 1.1010sets up a move to 1.0950.
Gold produced a false break above 1625 overnight and this sets up a move back to the lower end of the trading range at1610. Traders will continue to focus on building new longs above that level, but with the market now apparently becomingmore concerned about the US debt situation, the negative correlation between gold and the USD could be beginning to break
Resistance
1625
Support
1610Market Sentiment
Bullish
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EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
The dollar-yen’s move lower continues with the recent move to 78.00 seen as an opportunity to take new shorts. Yesterday’warning from the BoJ that they are considering policy move to intervene in the market might keep the market cautious.
Unsurprisingly, the pound is in a similar position to the Euro, with last night’s selldown seen as a warning that the pair mightbe due to reverse. That said, the market will remain bullish while the pair trades above 1.6260, but a break below that levelwill be bearish.
Despite last night’s heavy selldown on the Euro, traders are likely to give the pair the benefit of the doubt and continue tofavour longs while we trade above 1.4325. A clear break of 1.4325, however, will be seen as bearish.
Resistance
1.4530
Support
1.4325Market Sentiment
Bullish (while above 1.4325)
Resistance
1.6440
Support
1.6260Market Sentiment
Bullish (while above 1.6260)
Resistance
78.00
Support
77.60Market Sentiment
Bearish
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SILVER
USD/CHF
GBP/JPY
No real change with the ascending triangle formation dominating the price action. Traders will continue to take shorts aroun128.20 until we see a clear break above this level while a break below 127.00 will also see further selling.
The USD/CHF continues to be hit by the USD weakness and we didn’t see the same kind of greenback reversal as we saw inother markets. Traders will be waiting for a move back to resistance at 80.80 or a break below 80.00 for new shorts.
As per most other markets, the overnight reversal has seen silver sent back to support at 40.00/20. Traders will be looking fonew longs around this level, but a continuation of the USD strength could see silver break below lower support on thascending triangle.
Resistance
41.00
Support
40.00/20Market Sentiment
Bullish
Resistance
80.80
Support
80.00Market Sentiment
Bearish
Resistance
128.20
Support
127.00Market Sentiment
Bearish
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AUD/JPY
OIL
Economic Calendar
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F/Cast Last F/Cast Last
» JPY: Retail Sales -0.6% -1.3% » USD: Unemployment Claims 413k 418k
» EUR: German Unemployment -15k -8k » USD: Pending Home Sales m/m -1.5% 8.2%
» GBP: CBI Realized Sales 1 -2 » USD: Natural Gas Storage 38B 60B
» » » » »
Crude has clearly broken lower and this now puts the ball in the bears’ court. Traders will be waiting for a move back to
97.00 in order to take new shorts.
The market looks to be still bullish on the AUD/JPY and waiting for a clear break above 86.00. A pullback to 85.20 will also beseen as a buying opportunity.
Resistance
97.00Support
96.00Market Sentiment
Bearish
Resistance
86.00Support
85.20Market Sentiment
Bullish