Flood Risk AssessmentStandard tools for DM and CCA
Hitoshi BABAHitoshi BABAPh.D. Environment and Resource Engineering
Senior AdvisorJapan International Cooperation Agencyp p g y
Standard Tools for Disaster Management d Cli Ch Ad iand Climate Change Adaptation
Need to be capable for monitoring and analyzingNeed to be capable for monitoring and analyzing• Increasing Risk of Water Disasters
k i bli ili i i• Weakening Public Resilience against Disasters• Current Capacity of Disaster Management• Strategy of adapting DM to Changing Environment
20042004
• China• India• Philippine
20052005
• Pakistan• China• USA
(Hurricane(HurricaneKatrina)
20062006
• Philippine• China• Ethiopia• IndonesiaIndonesia
• East Africa(Drought)(Drought)
20072007
• India• China• UK• BangladeshBangladesh
(cyclone Sidr)• Indonesia
20082008
• Myanmar (cyclone Nargis)
• Australia (drought)
20092009
• Pakistan• Taipei, Taiwan• Philippine• UlaanbaatarUlaanbaatar,
Mongolia
20102010• Latin America• Brazil
• Colombia Fuente: El HeraldoColombia Fuente: El Heraldo
20112011
• East Africa (Drought)
• USA (Flood, Drought, Tornado)
Global trend of Flood and DroughtGlobal trend of Flood and Drought
Number of natural disasters registered in EMDAT, 1970 – 2009,
htt // d t b /d t bhttp://www.emdat.be/database
ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:
• Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive, g– Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.
Standard for …..Flood risk assessment in Jakarta
Inundation Simulation in Ciliwung and West Floodway
Flood risk assessment in Jakarta
WBC
K.Cideng
Pluit Pump Station
Standard for …..Flood risk assessment in the PhilippinesFlood risk assessment in the Philippines
Standard for …..Flood risk assessment in ThailandFlood risk assessment in Thailand
Standard for …..Flood risk Assessment in the PhilippinesFlood risk Assessment in the Philippinesconsidering Climate Change Adaptation
Standard for …..Earthquake risk assessment in Metro ManilaEarthquake risk assessment in Metro Manila
ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:
• Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive, g– Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.
• Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning– Hydro-meteorological observation Social and economic stats etc– Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats, etc.
To tackle against increasing Flood Risks,To tackle against increasing Flood Risks,
• Need risk assessment, using appropriate Flood Models, g pp p• IFAS (Integrated Flood Analysis System)
Flood Forecasting System Using Global Satellite Rainfall1. Utilization of satellite-based rainfall as an input dataz f f p2. Implementation of Distributed run-off analysis engines3. Function of creating run-off model4. Visualization of flood modeling/forecasting results5 Free distribution5. Free distribution
• Developed by ICHARM (International Center for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the Auspices of UNESCO)
• A concise flood-runoff analysis system for developing countries• A concise flood-runoff analysis system for developing countries• ICHARM conducts training seminars for users to utilize IFAS
Factors affecting to the increasing riskFactors affecting to the increasing risk
of water disasters, including flood and drought, g g– Changing climate pattern
– Precipitation– Sea level
1980’ Urbanization28.8% Jakarta
200850.8% Future
– Changing watershed condition– Forest and vegetation cover– Urbanization
Prospect75.8%
– Changing vulnerability of people– Moving population– livelihood
Damage potential and DM StrategyDamage potential and DM Strategy• Damage Potential analysis
– Intensity and frequency– Public Resilience against Disasters – Damage assumption– Needs of emergency response– Needs of recovery and reconstructionNeeds of recovery and reconstruction
• Disaster Management Strategy– Risk identification, assessment
• Monitoring, forecasting, hazard and risk mapping, information systems, individual and societal surveysand societal surveys
– Risk reduction• Land use and spatial planning, river basin management, legislation and regulation,
building codes, disaster information, public awareness and education, resettlement• Integrated flood control preventive measures structural improvementIntegrated flood control, preventive measures, structural improvement,
infrastructure reinforcement, – Financial protection
• Insurance, reinsurance, disaster funds– Emergency preparedness and responseEmergency preparedness and response
• Early warning, emergency and contingency recovery, response, training– Post disaster recovery and reconstruction
Need DRR to sustainable developmentNeed DRR to sustainable development
Number of people reported killed and total amount of reported i d b ll l di 1970 2009economic damages by all natural disasters, 1970-2009
http://www emdat be/databasehttp://www.emdat.be/database
ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:
• Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive, g– Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.
• Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning– Hydro-meteorological observation Social and economic stats etc– Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats, etc.
• Tools for Risk analysis, for identifying risks and places– Flood and Inundation analysis, Affecting factors, etc.
The Disaster Management CycleThe Disaster Management Cycle
Disaster occurrence
&Mitigation
Defense
Emergency Response, Recovery
Prevention
DMC
y
Rehabilitation,
Reconstruction
Japan’s disaster management relevant national laws surrounding Disaster Management Cycleg g y
Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake Law
Mega Scale
Meteorological Service Law
Volcanic Disaster
Flood Defense LawOil Incident Law
Nuclear Incident Law
Disaster occurrence
&Mitigation
Mega Scale Earthquake Law
Volcanic Disaster Prevention Law
Sabo Law
River Law
Law for Disaster Management
People Protection Law
c
Defense
U b Fl d L
Sediment Disaster Law
Sabo Law
Disaster Rescue Law
Law of Self D f F
Emergency Response, Recovery
Prevention
DMCUrban Planning Law
Sewerage Law
Urban Flood Law
Fire Fighting Law
Fire Fighting
Defense Force
y
Rehabilitation,
Building Codes
F t L
Coast Law
Organization Law
Victims Rehabilitation Support Law
Reconstruction
Special Law for Severe Damage
Infrastructure Rehabilitation Law
Forest Conservation Law
Forest Law Disaster Condolence Fund Law
ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:
• Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive, g– Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.
• Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning– Hydro-meteorological observation Social and economic stats etc– Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats, etc.
• Tools for Risk analysis, for identifying risks and places– Flood and Inundation analysis, Damage and Impact assessment, etc.
• Capacity Evaluation, for improving DRR strategically– Legal and institutional fundamentals, communications, etc.
Climate Change Adaptation in Water Sector
Handbook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector
A Resilient approach that Integrates Water Management and Community
lDevelopment
June 2011, JICA Global Environment Department
CC adaptive Flood Management
Record of hydro-metrological data Climate Change Projection
CC adaptive Flood Management
Flood probability analysis
Runoff and Inundation analysis
Impact Evaluation on Extreme Events by Climate Change
Coping strategy
Target setting: 1) Strategic Area Protection by Multiple Measures2) Land Use Regulation n Watershed Measures
Runoff and Inundation analysis Coping strategy
) g3) Community-based Disaster Management
IWRM capacity development, Legal and Institutional fundamentalsp y p , g fFlood control,Reservoir, dikes,Flood ways,Protection wall,
Risk assessment, Early warning, Evacuation,Flood proofing,
Flood fighting,Community Based Disaster Management
Land use control, Storm Retention,Water Infiltration,Runoff control,Pr
ogra
m
Monitoring, O/M Poverty n Vulnerability Alleviation, Gender, Disability
Changing hydrology and water resourcesChanging hydrology and water resources
• Models for downscaling CCgA) AGCM20B) GCM dynamic downscalingC) GCM ensembleC) GCM ensembleD) Simple statistical downscalingE) Others
• Uncertainty b d lby models,by climatology,by CO2 projection,and by mitigations
Damage potential and impact assessment, followed by Adaptive Planning
Magnitude Damage potential and Strategy Selectable Measures to be
followed by Adaptive Planning
Magnitude of flood
Damage potential and impact
Small Little damage, avoidable
Strategy in case of
Selectable Measures to be taken
Small Preventive strategy mainly by infrastructure
Medium Damage on livelihood, no casualty
Large Heavy damage, must be
yMedium Preventive strategy with
some response measures
Large Combination of designed controlled
Extreme Severe damage, need comprehensive works
g gprevention and response
Extreme More emphasis on response side measures
Impact assess based on wide range of hazard projections
adaptive planning with multiple scenario selections
(a sample concept )(a sample concept )
ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:
• Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive, g– Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.
• Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning– Hydro-meteorological observation Social and economic stats etc– Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats, etc.
• Tools for Risk analysis, for identifying risks and places– Flood and Inundation analysis, Damage and Impact assessment, etc.
• Capacity Evaluation, for improving DRR strategically– Legal and institutional fundamentals, communications, etc.
• Climate Change Adaptation, for coping with global issuesg p , p g g– Models for downscaling CC, Analytical method, Planning, etc.
Japan’s support to ASEAN Disaster Management
1 AHA Center Establishment1. AHA Center Establishment 2. Supporting Study
3. Joint Research
Hitoshi BABAHitoshi BABAPh.D. Environment and Resource Engineering
Senior AdvisorJapan International Cooperation Agency
JAPAN-ASEAN Cooperation for Disaster Risk Reduction
ASEAN ACDM
Other Regional
Examples of Actions
IndonesiaIndonesia
PhilippinesPhilippines
MalaysiaMalaysia
AADMERDisaster risk identification,Disaster risk identification,
ACDM
AHA CenterAPEC
Framework
Regional Disaster Risk Assessment program, technical guidelines
& Output
MalaysiaMalaysia
ThailandThailand
VietnamVietnam
MyanmarMyanmar
identification, assessment and monitoring
identification, assessment and monitoring
Disaster prevention and mitigationDisaster prevention and mitigation
Di dDi d
WORK PROGRAMME 2010‐2015Risk Assessment, Early Warning and Monitoring
Prevention and MitigationPrevention and Mitigation
PartnershipPartnership
Resource mobilizationResource mobilization
ADPC Regional Early warning program and
operation systems, training program
Regional monitoring guidelines,
UNISDR‐WB‐ASEAN yy
CambodiaCambodia
LaosLaos
BruneiBrunei
Disaster preparednessDisaster preparedness
Emergency responseEmergency response
Technical cooperation and scientific researchTechnical cooperation and scientific research
Preparedness and ResponsePreparedness and Response
RecoveryRecovery
InstitutionalizationInstitutionalization
Outreach and MainstreamingOutreach and Mainstreaming
Training and Knowledge Management
Training and Knowledge Management
Information Management and C i i T h lInformation Management and C i i T h l
UN‐ESCAP Expert Group,
Satellite‐base disaster monitoring system
Regional training
Database and InformationSystem
project
SingaporeSingaporeRehabilitationRehabilitation
InstitutionalizationInstitutionalization Communication TechnologyCommunication TechnologyUNESCAP Committee on Disaster Risk
Research activities
All JAPANJICA Adviser to formulate
Cooperation Activities and to support AHA Center
Study to profile available resources of DRR and to formulate Cooperation Activities
Joint Research for reducing disaster risks and vulnerability in ASEAN countries
Technology, Knowledge & Satellite data
ADRC DRH Asia ICHARM JAXASupporting Initiatives
JMA
SENTINEL Asia, GFAS, IFAS, GEOSS, ALOS, MTSAT, etc.EORC
ConsiderationConsideration
Various initiatives surrounding ASEAN DRRgCollaborate with UNISDR, WB and other partnersConsider Asian-monsoon characteristicUtilize resourceful technology and experiences in this regionD l t h i l t d dDevelop technical standard
Japan’s Support to ASEAN DRRJapan s Support to ASEAN DRR
1. Support AHA Center Establishment– Adviser to help AHA Center implementing action plans and operating
programs and to formulate Cooperation Activities– Information and communication facilities of the Center
2 Study to support AADMER Work Program2. Study to support AADMER Work Program– Profiling available resources and information of DRR in ASEAN member
countries in order to enrich the AHA Center Database– Formulating Cooperation Activitiesg p– Developing regional standard for flood risk assessment
3. Joint Research (subjects candidate to be discussed further)– Research on Disaster-proof Infrastructure optimized with cost and benefit– Comprehensive Disaster Risk Assessment of Mega-Cities in ASEAN– Disaster Vulnerability Assessment and Business Continuity Plan of Major
Industrial Areas in ASEANW t i i l ti l i f G t E t J E th k– Worst case scenario simulation, learning from Great East Japan Earthquake
Subject matters of the supporting study1. Profiling available resources and information of DRR in ASEAN member countries in order
to enrich the AHA Center Database• Progress and plans of regional activities/projects under existing initiatives of many supporting entities
addressing disaster management in ASEAN, based on previous initiative*.• Existing plans of disaster risk assessment and outputs (hazard map, risk map) in each member country• Available data base and software which are operational to disaster risk management in each member country• Present capacity of disaster risk monitoring on hydrology, meteorology, seismology and damage assessment• Present capacity of disaster response concerning organizational structure, command system and laws andPresent capacity of disaster response concerning organizational structure, command system and laws and
regulations
2. Formulating candidate Japan -ASEAN cooperation activities/projects on disaster risk reduction
• Regional Disaster risk assessment Program, technical guidelinesg g g• Regional Early Warning Program and Operation Systems, training program• Regional Monitoring Guidelines, Satellite-base disaster monitoring system • Regional Training• Database and Information System
3. Developing regional standard for flood risk assessment• Collation of existing practices for assessing catastrophic risks that have been applied in ASEAN countries
including JICA bilateral projects • Promote joint learning and knowledge sharing • Develop and build consensus on regional standard approach(es) for catastrophic flood risks assessment inDevelop and build consensus on regional standard approach(es) for catastrophic flood risks assessment in
ASEAN• Develop capacities of ASEAN countries and the AHA Centre in flood risk assessment
* Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN Countries Disaster Risks Assessment, ASEAN Disaster Risk Management Initiative. December 2010
‘Way forward’Source: Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN CountriesSource: Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN Countries Disaster Risks Assessment. ASEAN Disaster Risk
Management Initiative, December 2010
Additional analyses on the most damaging quick onset of Disasters (floods, storms (typhoons and cyclones), earthquakes and Tsunamis.
• Level 1: An analysis of risk aggregation by hazard type and area at a higher level of resolution (for example a 100‐km grid).
• Level 2: Worst‐case scenarios for the highly populated cities with quantification of losses, estimating the range of probability of occurrence of the scenarios.
• Level 3: Fully probabilistic analysis containing all the elements of standard risk analysis.
Required ASEAN standardRequired ASEAN standard
• To secure minimum requirement of risk assessment– Information to be retrieved quickly through cool interface– Methodology that could be commonly used by partners when needed to
implement analysis effectively • To compare risks by country or region based on common criteria• To conduct real time risk assessment effectively in emergency• To match with various conditions, such as budget constrain, geologicalTo match with various conditions, such as budget constrain, geological
conditions, socio-economic conditions• To develop outcomes of partners support to regional level
ASEAN Standard classification by:ASEAN Standard classification by:
• Terminology T f di• Type of disaster– Flood, Drought, Storm (Inc. Typhoon, Cyclone), Earthquake, Tsunami, Landslide,
Volcano, Wildfire (Inc. Forest fire), Epidemic, Human Induced (Inc. Industrial Incident, Nuclear Accident)
S l f hi f• Scale of geographic focus– Regional, National, Sub-National
• Database – Disaster profile, loss, provability, studies, etc.p , , p y, ,– Database system, index model,
• Methodologies and tools– Type of analysis
• Analysis for each disaster type analysis for multi hazardAnalysis for each disaster type, analysis for multi hazard• Analysis for hazard, vulnerability, risk, coping capacity
– Required data (ground observation, satellite, etc.)– Resolution levels by disaster type and analysis type– Accuracy interface etc– Accuracy, interface, etc.
Schedule
2011 Nov: preparation of Activitiesp pDec: mobilization of Advisor
2012 Apr: Inception of StudyMay: Regional workshop on FRA