Indian School of BusinessGroup F13Kyungmin ParkRahul GuptaShikhar AngraSriram GovindrajanYasharth Mishra
• Key Terms– TFR, ASFR, CEB, CBR, etc.
• Statistics as per NFHS 3.
• Fertility trends in India from 1991-92 to 2005-06.
• Variations in fertility parameters across states andurban-rural differentials.
• Factors affecting fertility rates.
• World view - association between population andeconomic growth, poverty, environment, humandevelopment.
• divide the number of births to women in that age group during the period 1-36 months preceding the survey by the number of woman years lived by women in that age group during the same three-year time period.
Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR)
• Average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime, and she were to survive from birth through the end of her reproductive life.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• The replacement rate is the number of children each woman needs to have tomaintain current population levels or what is known as zero populationgrowth.
Replacement Level Fertility Rate
• the annual number of births per 1,000 populationCrude Birth Rate (CBR)
• the number of children a woman has ever borneChild Ever Born (CEB)
• percentage of currently married women age 15-49 years who are currently using a contraceptive method or whose husbands are using a contraceptive method
Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR)
Objective of National Population Policy, 2000:
• “to address the unmet needs for contraception, health care infrastructure,and health personnel, and to provide integrated service delivery for basicreproductive and child health care. The medium-term objective is to bringthe TFR to replacement levels by 2010”
• Achieve population stabilization by 2045 i.e. population to stabilize into astationary population, with no year-to-year changes in age-specific rates or intotal population.
Age Urban Rural Total
15-19 0.057 0.105 0.09
20-24 0.166 0.231 0.209
25-39 0.184 0.246 0.226
40-49 0.005 0.013 0.01
Urban Rural Total
TFR 15-49 2.06 2.98 2.68
Urban Rural Total
CBR 18.8 25 23.1
Mean No. of CEBMean No. of
living children
Age -- --
15-19 0.15 0.14
20-24 1.15 1.06
25-39 2.95 2.65
40-49 4 3.41
Source: http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2012/world-population-data-sheet/world-map.aspx#/map/births
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total
NFHS3 NFHS2 NFHS1
2.06
2.98
2.68
2.27
3.062.84
2.68
3.64
3.36
TFR
Trends in TFR
NFHS3 – 2003-05, NFHS2 – 1996-98, NFHS1 – 1990-92.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
15-19 20-24 25-39 40-49
Trends in Total ASFR
NFHS3
NFHS2
NFHS1
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
15-19 20-24 25-39 40-49
ASFR Trends - Urban and Rural
NFHS3-Urban
NFHS3-Rural
NFHS2-Urban
NFHS2-Rural
NFHS1-Urban
NFHS1-Rural
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total
NFHS3 NFHS2 NFHS1
18.8
2523.1
20.9
26.224.8 24.1
30.428.7
CB
R
Trends in CBR
NFHS3 – 2003-05, NFHS2 – 1996-98, NFHS1 – 1990-92.
Kerala Tamil NaduIndia
Urban RuralUttar
PradeshBihar
TFR1.93 1.8 2.06 2.98 3.82 4.0
CBR16.4 16.4 18.8 25 29.1 32.4
Median numberof months sincepreceding birth
41.2 31.4 31.1 29.8 29.9
%of women age 15-19 who have had a live birth or who are pregnant with their first child
5.8 7.7 16.0 14.3 25.0
Wanted Fertility RateActual Fertility Rate 1.8/1.9 1.4/1.8 1.9/2.7 2.3/3.8 2.4/4.0
Percentage who wantmore sons than Daughters (Women/Men)
11/11.8 5.7/7.9 22.4/20.0 33.5/27.8 39.2/38.5
Five key proximate determinants
Marriage
Sexual Intercourse
Postpartum Amenorrhea
Postpartum Abstinence
Menopause
Contraceptive Use
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Never married
Currently Married
Married gauna not performed
Widowed
Divorced
Separated
%age Married
0
5
10
15
20
25Median Age at First Marriage
0
5
10
15
20
25Median Age at first sexual intercourse
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Knowledge of at least one contraceptive method
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
%
Ever use of contraception
CURRENTLY MARRIED WOMEN - TOTAL
UNMARRIED WOMEN WHO EVER HAD SEX -TOTAL
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Fem
ale
Ster
iliza
tio
n
Fem
ale
Pill
Fem
ale
IUD
Fem
ale
Inje
ctab
les
Fem
ale
Co
nd
om
/Nir
od
h
Mal
e St
erili
zati
on
Mal
e C
on
do
m/N
iro
dh
Cost of Modern Methods
Percentage free
Percentage who donot know cost
Median cost ($)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Not having sex/infrequent sex
Menopausal/had hysterectomy
Subfecund/infecund
Fatalistic
Wants as many children as possible
Respondent opposed
Husband opposed
Others opposed
Religious prohibition
Knows no method
Knows no source
Health concerns
Fear of side effects
Lack of access/too far
Costs too much
Inconvenient to use
Interferes with body’s normal processes
Other
Don’t know
Missing
%
Reason for not intending to use contraceptive in future
68.2, 3.9 Bihar
54.9, 3.9 Uttar Pradesh
24.5, 1.5 A & N
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
TFR
Percentage of women between age 20-24 married before the age of 18(by state)
TFR v/s Early marriage4
3.6 Bihar
1.7T.N.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
TFR
Literacy rate (in %)
TFR v/s Literacy Rate (2011) 5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
TFR
Any method of contraceptive use (%)
TFR v/s Use of contraceptives
R² = 0.003
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 0.5 1 1.5
Billions
Poverty head count ratio below $1.5
R² = 0.476
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 0.5 1 1.5Billions
CO2 emissions(million tones)
R² = 0.013
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.5 1 1.5
Billions
HDI
R² = 0.127
0
4
8
12
16
0 0.5 1 1.5
Billions
GDP, PPP (current international
tn $)
• Top 10 populous countries in decreasing order: •China•India•United States•Indonesia•Brazil•Pakistan•Nigeria•Bangladesh•Russian Federation•Japan
•Little or no correlation exists between population with poverty head count ratio, and HDI
•Strong correlations between population with GDP (PPP adjusted) and CO2 emissions
• Population and per capita income are the major contributors of CO2 emissions (but vary across time and region)– research paper by R. Shanthini
•Source: World Bank databases 6
• Here are the statistics are per the SRS Statistical Report 2011 3
– TFR: 2.4, Urban: 1.9, Rural: 2.7
– CBR: 21.8, Urban: 17.6, Rural: 23.3
– Proportion of females getting married before legal age of marriage: 3.7%
– Sex Ratio: 906, Urban: 900, Rural: 907
• NPP, 2000 stated that if its strategies arefollowed then India’s population could becapped at 1.1 billion in 2010.
• In reality India’s population in 2010 was 1.15billion and approximately 1.24 billion today.
• Union Health and Family Welfare Ministry haspushed back the target date for achievingpopulation stabilization to 2070 from 2045.Projected population in 2070 - 170 crore1
• Should government rethink its population controlpolicy?
• At the time when most of the developed world andeven developing world countries such as China andKorea are starting to age should India really try anddrastically control its population growth?
• What is the real problem - population or theunderlying factors?
• Demographic dividend – All hype or is there somesubstance in it?
1. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/population-stabilisation-target-date-pushed-back-to-2070/article843432.ece
2. All statistics sourced from - http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/FRIND3/00FrontMatter00.pdf
3. http://www.censusindia.gov.in/vital_statistics/SRS_Reports.html
4. http://www.unicef.org/india/Child_Marriage_Fact_Sheet_Nov2011_final.pdf
5. http://censusindia.gov.in/2011-Common/srs.html
6. World Bank databases - http://datacatalog.worldbank.org/
• In the 1950s, TFR exceeded six children per woman.
• In 1962, South Korea began its national familyplanning campaign to reduce women's unwantedbirths through a program of information and theprovision of family planning supplies and services.
• The program was seen as essential if the goals ofeconomic growth and modernization were to beachieved. -> The public responded well to the ideaof a “small and prosperous family.”
• By 1970, the TFR had fallen to 4.5
• A 1974 poster (see figure's top image)exhorted, “Sons or daughters, let's havetwo children and raise them well.”
• In 1981, the government, buoyed by itssuccess up to that point, set a target of atwo-child, "replacement" level fertility by1988 with a program of economicincentives.
• There was even some mention of a one-child family: "Even two children per familyare too many for our crowded country"(see bottom image).
• The TFR was down to 1.74 by 1984.