ABDIB � ABIEC � ABIOVE � APEX � Aracruz Celulose � AVIC II � Banco do Brasil � Bank of China � Baosteel � Barbosa, Müssnich &
Aragão Advogados � Benxi � BM&F � Bradesco � Câmara Chinesa de Máquinas e Eletrônicos � Câmara Chinesa de Têxteis � Caramuru �
CBMM � CCECC � Cenibra � Chalco � China Aluminium Group � China Harbour Engineering � China International Forestry Group � China
National Machinery & Equipment Imp/Exp � Chinatex � CITIC � COFCO � Comexport � Construtora Odebrecht � Cooxupé � CREC �
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce � Embraco � Embraer � FIEMG � FIRJAN � Fundação Dom Cabral � Genertech � Gree � Huawei � Itaú BBA
� Jiangyin Chengxin � KPMG � Maeda Agroindustrial � Minmetals � Norinco � Nuctech � Petrobras � Pinheiro Neto Advogados � Politec �
PriceWaterhouseCoopers do Brasil � Sadia � Shanghai Anxin Flooring � Shanxi Dajin International � Shanxi Foreign Investment & Trade � Sab
Company � Shanxi Dajin International � Shunye Iron & Steel � Sinopec � Suzano � SVA � Tozzini, Freire, Teixeira e Silva Advogados �
Trench, Rossi e Watanabe Advogados � Usiminas � Veirano Advogados � Votorantim � Weg Indústrias � Yankuang � ZTE � ABDIB �
ABIEC � ABIOVE � APEX � Aracruz Celulose � AVIC II � Banco do Brasil � Bank of China � Baosteel � Barbosa, Müssnich & Aragão
Advogados � Benxi � BM&F � Bradesco � Câmara Chinesa de Máquinas e Eletrônicos � Câmara Chinesa de Têxteis � Caramuru � CBMM �
CCECC � Cenibra � Chalco � China Aluminium Group � China Harbour Engineering � China International Forestry Group � China National
Machinery & Equipment Imp/Exp � Chinatex � CITIC � COFCO � Comexport � Construtora Odebrecht � Cooxupé � CREC � Companhia
Vale do Rio Doce � Embraco � Embraer � FIEMG � FIRJAN � Fundação Dom Cabral � Genertech � Gree � Huawei � Itaú BBA � Jiangyin
Chengxin � KPMG � Maeda Agroindustrial � Minmetals � Norinco � Nuctech � Petrobras � Pinheiro Neto Advogados � Politec �
PriceWaterhouseCoopers do Brasil � Sadia � Shanghai Anxin Flooring � Shanxi Dajin International � Shanxi Foreign Investment & Trade � Sab
Company � Shanxi Dajin International � Shunye Iron & Steel � Sinopec � Suzano � SVA � Tozzini, Freire, Teixeira e Silva Advogados �
Trench, Rossi e Watanabe Advogados � Usiminas � Veirano Advogados � Votorantim � Weg Indústrias � Yankuang � ZTE � ABDIB � AB
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
February 2006
We will define a new geography of trade.President Lula, shortly before his visit to China in May 2004
Brazil and China are materializing theirstrategic leadership.
Senior diplomat, April 2004
Billions in Chinese invesment!Press headline, May 2004
China is an unfair competitor.Representative of the machinery industry, March 2005
Safeguards must be applied to shield ourindustries against Chinese competition.
Speech by the chairman of a major business organization, June 2005
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
2000-2005
China-Brazil Business CouncilOttawa, 10 February 2006
www.cebc.org.br
1. The trade axis
Sino-Brazilian trade (US$ millions)
676 1.0851.902
2.520
4.5325.444
6.833
8651.222
1.328
1.554
2.147
3.700
5.353
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Exports Imports Balance
-24
9
-13
7
57
4 96
6
23
85
17
44
14
80
100%
75
50
25
Brazil
China
Source: Ministry of Industry, Development and Trade - SECEX / Preparation: China-Brazil Business Council
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Trends in China’s agricultural trade (US$ millions)
Source: Dr. Huang Jikun, China Centre for Agricultural Policy, CAAS
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Land intensive Labor intensive
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%So
ybea
ns
Soy
oil
Soy
mea
l
Ora
nges
Cotto
n
Beef
Pork
Poul
try
Suga
r
Corn
Appl
es
Rice
Whe
at
Toba
cco
China Brazil
high median lowChinese dynamism:
Consumption of chosen agricultural productsAnnual average growth (1995-2003)
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Source: Mario Jales - Instituto ICONE, SECEX, China Customs
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Orangejuice
Soybeans Pork Cotton
Brazil Others
61 33 31 26 2,8 1,5 1,0 0,001
Brazil’s participation in China’s agricultural imports - 2003
Source: Mario Jales - Instituto ICONE, SECEX, China Customs
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Impact on metal marketsCopper Demand by Decade
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
'000
tonn
es
ChinaOther
Aluminium Demand by Decade
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
'000
tonn
es
ChinaOther
Nickel Demand by Decade
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
'000
tonn
es
ChinaOther
Zinc Demand by Decade
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
'000
tonn
esChinaOther
Source: Jim Lennon, MacQuarie Bank
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Is Sino-Brazilian trade unbalanced?Argentina US
World EU
China
ManufacturesSemi-manufactures
Base products
71,1%
19,0%
9,3%
92,0%
4,6%3,0%
40,7%
11,7%
47,4%
16,7%
14,7%
68,4%
55,1%
13,5%
29,3%
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Source: SECEX / Elaboration: China-Brazil Business Council
Mechanicalmachinery andEquipment
Electricalequipment andparts
Imports from chosen countries World imports and country participation
OthersArgentinaEUUS
ChinaWorld
Data-processingequipment
Source: SECEX / Elaboration: China-Brazil Business Council
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2003 20050
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
US$
milh
ões
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2003 20050
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
US$
milh
ões
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2003 20050
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
US$
milh
ões
0
750
1500
2250
3000
3750
4500
5250
2000 2003 2005U
S$ m
ilhõe
s
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2003 2005
US$
milh
ões
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
2000 2003 2005
US
$ m
ilhõe
s
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Textile and apparel
Footwear
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2003 20050
200400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
16001800
US$
milh
ões
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2003 2005
US$
milh
ões
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2003 2005
U$
milh
ões
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2003 20050
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
US$
milh
ões
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Imports from chosen countries World imports and country participation
OthersArgentinaEUUS
ChinaWorld
Source: SECEX / Elaboration: China-Brazil Business Council
19781985
1990
20002005
Technologicalintensity
Evolution of technological sophistication of Chinese exports
PetroleumCoal
Simple manufactures
TextilesGarments
Electrical parts
Electronics,Naval ind. Appliances
Pharmaceuticals
Audio &video Telecom
Dataprocessing
Biotech.
Nano
Aerospace
Autos
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
FDI/GDP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
57,0%
43,0%
Industrial goods
85,0%
15,0%Hightech
Chinese exports x
capital source
National
Foreign
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
ExportExport partnerspartners measuredmeasured by by marketmarket sizesize andand importimport dynamismdynamism
Import market sizeImport growth rate 2003/04 & 1997/98
> US$ 100m/year US$ 20 toUS$ 100 m/year
< US$ 20m/year
> 100% South Korea; Mexico; China
India; S. Africa; Russia; Thailand
Algeria, Costa Rica,Iran
63% < t < 100%US; Canada Saudi Arabia Chile; Colombia
< 63% EU; Japan Morrocco; Venezuela; Argentina
Source: CNI
Market access importance and negotiation priorities
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
2. …and billions in investment
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Chinese investment in South America – 2004 announcements
• Brazil – railways, transportation infrastructure, steel, gas, alumina, ,mining, farming
• Argentina – Treasury bonds (?), gas, farming• Chile – copper• Peru – mining, gas (?)• Venezuela – oil (long-term supply contracts)
Imports are growing at a staggering pace in both value and market share
China is replacing more traditional suppliers of manufactures
Investments announced in 2004 failed to materialize. But a second, more modest wave of investments is likely.
Conclusions
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Thanks!
谢谢
Obrigado!
www.cebc.org.br
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Divergencia estadística Productos importados por Brasil de China (US$ millones)
Fuente: SECEX y China Customs Statistic Yearbook / Elaboración: Consejo Empresarial Brasil-China
Datos Brasil (SECEX)Datos China (China National Customs)
Productos químicos orgánicos
Confeccionesde malla
Confeccionesexcepto de malla
Calzados Autos y partes
Aparatosde óptica
48,5
37,3
16,2
26,5 25,9
51,8
31,9
23,320,7
36,1
133,7
40,0
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Appendices
100 100 100 100 100 100
76,9
163,5
200,0
73,0
174,3
29,9
Divergencia estadística Productos importados por Brasil de China (%)
Fuente: SECEX y China Customs Statistic Yearbook / Elaboración: Consejo Empresarial Brasil-China
Datos Brasil (SECEX)Datos China (China National Customs)
Productos químicos orgánicos
Confeccionesde malla
Confeccionesexcepto de malla
Calzados Autos y partes
Aparatosde óptica
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Appendices
Hacia la apertura - productos con fuerte desempeño en 2005 (US$ MM)
Petróleo y derivados Cueros y pieles
Productos químicos orgánicos e inorgánicos
Máquinas, herramientas e aparatos mecánicos
Tabaco Carnes y lácteos
Enero a julio de 2005
Enero a julio de 2004
57,8
19,2
48,2
2,3
68,757,2
137,8113,0
164,3
99,9
270,5
55,1
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Appendices
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Mai
z
Arro
z
Trig
o
Alg
odón
Taba
co
Azú
car
Soj
a gr
ano
Soj
a ac
eite
Soj
a sa
lvad
o
Man
zana
s
Nar
anja
s
Car
ne g
anad
o
Car
ne p
ollo
Car
ne p
orci
na
Brasil China
Fuente: ICONE, USDA
471% 216% 262%
Consumo agrícola - productos seleccionados Tajas promedias de auto-suministro en Brasil y China, 2001-2003
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Appendices
15,6
690
108
182
37
India
0,4
959
4
55
10
Brasil
12,5
1044
130
71
18
China3012Arancel promedio (%)
277350Arancel máximo (%)
633167No. De líneas > 30% (1)
30,39,1Relación (1) / (2)
20911829Total de líneas arancelarias (2)
UE 15EEUU
Niveles de protección: aranceles agrícolas (2004)
Apuntes- aranceles convertidos en equivalentes ad valorem- en el caso de China, fueron considerados los aranceles al final del período de transición de las reglas de la OMC
Fuente: Instituto ICONE
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Appendices
Proyectos estratégicos chinos – minería
Cu, Au
Mn, Fe
Zn, Ni
Cu
Fe, CuCu, Zn, Au
Au
Cu, Fe
Cu
Ni
Cu, Co
Ni
CuCu
Fe, Zn
Zn
Ni, Co
Ni
Ni
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Appendices
Conocimiento y preparación: inserción creciente del “factor China” en el planeamiento estratégico empresarial
El ascenso Chino es un hecho – no desaparecerá con defensa comercial
Principal riesgo de corto plazo: pérdida de participación en terceros mercados
Promoción de ventajas competitivas nacionales
Políticas públicas más favorables a la inversión nacional y extranjera
Desarrollo de nichos competitivos
Inserción competitiva en el mercado chino: promoción comercial e inversiones
Qué estrategias empresariales adoptar frente al ascenso Chino?
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations
Appendices
Proyectos estratégicos chinos – petróleo y gas
The new geography of trade?An overview of Sino-Brazilian economic relations