David WoodPrincipal, Delta Wisdom
H+UK meetings secretaryBlog: http://dw2blog.com
Twitter: @dw2
Far Beyond Smartphones:Lessons From Disruptive Technology,
Open collaboration, andBreakthrough mobile products
intelligence for profound change
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Q: How quickly can technology progress?
A: If we’re not careful,not quickly enough
We need to be aware ofdeep impediments to technological progress, as well as its deep drivers
In principle,we can solve these impediments...
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If we’re not quick enough
Environmental disaster
Economic disintegration
Extreme terrorism (WMD)
Individual alienation
Radically uncertain
future
Cut backsDisruption
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Convergence of computing & telecommsVision: 1998
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New functionality in smartphones• Colour screens• Cameras – and video recorders• Messaging: SMS, simple email, rich email• Web browsing: Google, Wikipedia, News...• Social networking: Facebook, Twitter, blogs...• Games – including multiplayer games• Maps and location-based services• Buying and selling (tickets, vouchers, cash)• What about the next 3, 5, 10 years?
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Progress accelerators Progress inhibitorsDecreasing price
Increasing reliability
Increasing stylishness
Increasing word of mouth recommendations
Increasing number of useful and/or entertaining mobile services
Increasing ecosystem maturity (virtuous cycle)
Unexpectedly hardtechnical problems
“Chicken-and-egg” coordination problems
Conflicting business models
Platform fragmentation
Poor usability design
Accelerating complexity
?
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Progress (Log)
Time
Core technology (potential)
?
?
Useful applications
Weak environment
Productive environment
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Expertise needed !
TechnologyEcosystem
design
Business models
System integration
Lean processes
Agile project management
User experience
Community engagement
Platform
MotivationExecution
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Turning expertise into action
Knowing DoingGap!
Leaders with a profound hands-on knowledge of the work domain
Bias for plain language & simple conceptsEncourage solutions rather than
inaction: Ask “how”, not just “why”
Ensure actions are completed(rather than being forgotten,or excuses being accepted)
Willing to “learn by doing”:avoid analysis paralysis
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Next generation handheld devices
devices that makeall users smarter:
IQ+=20
+5 yearsx10 raw capability
devices that make society smarter:
GDP+=20%
connectivity++awareness++
interactivity++intelligence++
The mobile devices of the near future will be much more powerful and much more useful than even the best mobile devices of today
?media, health, education, science, government...
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The mobile devices of the near future will be much more powerful and much more useful than even the best mobile devices of today
Next generation handheld devices
?media, health, education, science, government...
Individually targeted content
e-learning materials
Augmented realityDiscover local treasure
Cognitive enhancementTrusted advice, based on observing the user
Huge variety of different apps (“long tail”)
Apps much more numerous than songs
Devices much more numerous than people (50B - 1T...)
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David Wood, Delta WisdomTwitter: @dw2Blog: http://dw2blog.comBook: http://dw2blog.com/the-hplus-agenda/Chapter 3:http://dw2blog.com/the-hplus-agenda/my-personal-journey/
Far Beyond Smartphones:Lessons From Disruptive Technology,
Open collaboration, andBreakthrough mobile products
Some further reading