Extremist Network Interdiction

LCDR Michael Albrecht

LCDR Brian Colburn

LT Michael Wiederholt

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Current Captured US POWs

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Warren Weinstein Caitlan Coleman

Sgt Bowe Bergdahl

Initial Problem Statement

• How do we rescue our American captives?

• Options:– Department of Defense

• Holding location is believed in the vicinity of Miramshah, Pakistan

• Intractable option due to geo-political boundaries and sensitivities

– State Department• Negotiations

• Prisoner Swap

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Roadblock to Negotiations?

Drone Strikes

•5 Nov 2013, Hakimullah Meshud was killed by a suspected drone strike.

– Claimed to be the reason the Taliban left the peace table.

•Double-Edged Sword

– Significantly degrades the ability, and influence, of our enemies.

– Possibility of severing the ties between the Islamic Emirate and the insurgents who are directly in control of the American captives.

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New Problem Statement

With continued drone strikes, how resilient is the terrorist network

communication?

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Intel Center - Unclassified

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Dirt Bag But not necessarily “terrorist”

Question: How to connect the all the dots?

Associate the connection between the Islamic Emirate to the captives

Mullah Omar

Compress Chart to Excel

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Name id Within Connections Province strength Attackable

AnwarDangar ANW_DAN PeshawarShura KabulAttackNetwork Parwan$Kapisa 50 1

JalaluddinHaqqani JAL_HAQ HaqqaniNetwork CAPTIVES 1000 1

Dawood DA_W KabulAttackNetwork 1 1

… … … … … ..

.. … … … … .. …

The Area of Responsibility

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Shura & Province Nodes

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Insurgent Nodes

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The Network

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Shortest-Path

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50

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GAMS Formulation

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Shortest Path Objective

GAMS Formulation

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Interdiction Dual

Resilience Curve

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Order of Attack:1. Sirajuddin Haqqani2. Taj Mir Jawad 3. Mullah Omar

Attack Results

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Resilience Curve

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Order of Attack:1. Ahmed Taha Khalid 2. Badruddin Haqqani 3. Jalaluddin Haqqani 4. Maulawi Sangin Zadran 5. Mohammed Nasir 6. Sirajuddin Haqqani

Omar not attacked

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Resilience Curve

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Order of Attack:1. Ahmed Taha Khalid 2. Eid Mohammed 3. Hamid Dullah 4. Maulawi Mohammed Ahmed 5. Maulawi Sangin Zadran 6. Sarwar Khan 7. Sirajuddin Haqqani 8. Taj Mir Jawad

Omar and Jalaluddin not attacked

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Measure of Effectiveness

• Results list– Ahmed Taha Khalid – Eid Mohammed – Hamid Dullah – Maulawi Mohammed Ahmed – Maulawi Sangin Zadran – Sarwar Khan – Sirajuddin Haqqani – Taj Mir Jawad

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Uses of Model

• Identify critical nodes– Sever communications between insurgent entities– Fracture any two insurgent networks

• Modify the start and end nodes

• Prevent unwanted results– Conflicting directives between agencies

• DPMO / State Department work to negotiate release

vs

• DoD strikes to degrade insurgent capabilities

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Limitations / Follow-On Work

• The list is roughly “all or nothing”– Many multiple paths

• Does not detail the significance of any one individual– Higher fidelity influence information is required

• Run model on CLASSIFIED Network– Unknown networks or individuals?

• Other Networks other than Islamic Emirate to negotiate with Haqqani

• Unknown Networks that could influence Haqqani

• Purchase a license through Intel Center (NPS Investment)– Just need $3K-$100k no big deal

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Resources

• Intelcenter.com– Network graph

• Gams code by Dr. Ned Dimitrov– Modified spstop.gms

• Various news articles– www.longwarjournal.com

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Questions?

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QUESTIONS?

COMMENTS?

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