Macro-Economic Aspects Of People’s MobilityHow to Improve Intra-European Mobility and Circular Migration? Fostering Diaspora Engagement
Jonathan ChaloffInternational Migration Division
OECDRiga, 11 May 2015
• The role of migration to respond to the business cycle
• Structural aspects notably in line with population ageing
Structure of the presentation
No surprise that free mobility responds to economic conditions in destination country…
OECD (2014), International Migration Outlook 2014, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/migr_outlook-2014-en
Permanent immigration in OECD countries by category of entry, standardised statistics, 2007-12
Work Accompanying family of workers
Family Humanitarian Other Free movements0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1. The role of migration to respond to the business cycle
Working-age citizens living in another EU country as a percentage of the population (15-64) of the country of citizenship, 2013
..and a large share of the mobile migrants left their home only following EU membership…
RO PT HR LT LV BG IE LU PL EL EE SK AT NL HU IT BE DK FI CZ UK SE FR ES DE0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
More than 10 years 5 to 10 years Less than 5 years
Source: OECD/European Union (2014), Matching Economic Migration with Labour Market Needs, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264216501-en
1. The role of migration to respond to the business cycle
Return migration from the EU-27/EFTA and labour market conditions in selected European OECD countries, 2005-2010
…while return migration depends on the conditions in the origin country
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.18
Czech Republic
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
0.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91Lithuania
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35Latvia
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18Poland
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25Romania
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09Germany
Chaloff, J., et al. (2012), "Free labour mobility and economic shocks: the experience of the crisis", in OECD, Free Movement of Workers and Labour Market Adjustment: Recent Experiences from OECD Countries and the European Union, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264177185-5-en
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em
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Retu
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(% o
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-born
pop
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wh
ich
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turn
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the p
ast ye
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1. The role of migration to respond to the business cycle
• Wide and increasing variation in unemployment rates among countries of the Eurozone since the beginning of the crisis (in 2012, 25% in Spain, 24% in Greece, 4% in Austria and 6% in Germany)
• Two questions:
Is free labour mobility reducing labour market disparities in Europe, in the Eurozone and in the United States?
Did the crisis lead to a change in the migratory response to regional disparities?
Labour Market Adjustment in the Eurozone
1. The role of migration to respond to the business cycle
Migration as an Adjustment Mechanism in the Crisis
• Labour mobility contributed to reducing regional unemployment and non-employment disparities in Europe and in the United States
• In both Europe and in the United States, up to a quarter of a shock to unemployment or non-employment may be accommodated within a year’s time
• During the crisis, Europe, unlike the United States, exhibited a stronger migratory reaction to labour market shocks, although cross-state mobility in the U.S. is still larger than in Europe
• Labour market adjustment in Europe has primarily been driven by citizens from outside the Eurozone, such as the recent EU accession countries or non-EU-27/EFTA countries
Jauer, J., et al. (2014), "Migration as an Adjustment Mechanism in the Crisis? A Comparison of Europe and the United States", OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 155, OECD Publishing, Paris.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jzb8p51gvhl-en
1. The role of migration to respond to the business cycle
• Population Aging• Compositional effects
2. Structural aspects of migration
Percentage change of the working age population, 2010-2020 (%)
Without migration, the working age population would be falling in most OECD countries
Bulgaria
Latvia
Russian
Federa
tionMalt
aEU
12
Hungary
German
y
Icelan
d
Slove
niaEU
27
Portuga
l
Denmark EU
15
Austria
Irelan
dIta
ly
United Kingd
om
Canad
a
United St
ates
New Ze
aland
Norway
Australi
aBraz
il
Indonesia
Turke
yIndia
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Percentage change of 15-64 population (%, 2010-2020)Percentage change of 15-64 population (%, 2010-2020), assuming zero net migration
Source: OECD/European Union (2014), Matching Economic Migration with Labour Market Needs, OECD Publishing, Paris.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264216501-en
2. Structural aspects of migration
Composition of the change in the labour force, by education level and demographic group, 2010-20
-90%
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Young workers (new entrants) Older workers (retirees) Prime-age workers
New immigrants Growth in tertiary-educated labour force 2010-20 (right-hand scale)
Tertiary educated
assumes progress in education attainment of cohorts aged 35-64, already in the labour market in 2010, but no educational upgrade for those aged 15-34 in 2020 (compared to 2010)
-90%
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Less than upper secondary education
2. Structural aspects of migration
Importance of medium-educated workforce
-90%
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Young workers (new entrants) Older workers (retirees) Prime-age workers
New immigrants Growth in labour force with upper secondary 2010-20 (right-hand scale)
Upper secondary education: Scenario 1
-90%-70%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%90%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%Upper secondary education: Scenario 2
2. Structural aspects of migration Scenario 1 assumes progress in education attainment of cohorts aged 35-64, already in the labour market in 2010, but no educational upgrade for those aged 15-34 in 2020 (compared to 2010). Scenario 2 assumes progress in education attainment for all cohorts in 2020
Strengthen mobility
• Increase take-up rates for assessment and recognition of foreign qualifications
• Activate migrants’ skills through mainstream and flexible specific programmes
• Put immigrants in contact with employers
Better use of existing skills
• Grant children of immigrants better access to early childhood education and care
• Language training should be adapted to migrants’ skills in destination country
• Strengthen anti-discrimination policy
What can be done?
Recruiting new skills
• Better balance between reliance on employer demand and safeguard mechanisms
• Tools to match employers and potential immigrants, including foreign students
• Promote learning of EU languages abroad
2. Structural aspects of migration
Develop strategies for interacting with these new Diaspora populations
• Some OECD countries have experience of how to benefit from large Diaspora communities, and these should be examples
• Promising paths to pursue include brain circulation, diaspora engagement, language support and reinforcement of networks
What role for the diaspora?
But,
• the longer the stay abroad, the less likely the return - many countries should not expect large scale returns
• those who return may have a wage premium for their work experience abroad, but they face a higher risk of unemployment
2. Structural aspects of migration
For further information:
www.oecd.org/migration [email protected]
14/11
Thank you for your attention
Free mobility entries in the United Kingdom and Ireland, national data (in thousands)
No surprise that free mobility responds to economic conditions in destination country…
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q22006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Other EU-8 countries Poland
Ireland:Personal Public Service (PPS) numbers issued to EU-8 citizens
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Other A-8 countries Poland
United Kingdom:Applications for the Worker RegistrationScheme (WRS) by EU-8
citizens
Note: PPS numbers are issued to anyone in Ireland accessing social benefits, public services and certain other public services. Changes in PPS numbers are therefore only a proxy for changes in labour-related flows, as they are issued to children and inactive immigrants.Chaloff, J., et al. (2012), "Free labour mobility and economic shocks: the experience of the crisis", inOECD, Free Movement of Workers and Labour Market Adjustment: Recent Experiences from OECD Countries and the European Union, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264177185-5-en