ENSO in CMIP5and how it relates to the Indian
Summer Monsoon
Rajeev Kurup
&
Krishna AchutaRao
Work in Progress
• Continuation of previous work (AchutaRao & Sperber 2002, 2006)
• New Flavors Modoki CT/EP & WP
• Teleconnections with Indian Monsoon
• Rainfall datasets
Defining ENSO Events
Form DJF seasonal anomalies of NIÑO3 TAS and SOI
Standardize the two time series
IfStandardized NIÑO3 anomaly 0.6
ANDStandard SOI -0.6
IfStandardized NIÑO3 anomaly -0.6
ANDStandardized SOI 0.6
Warm Event Cold Event
From AchutaRao & Spreber (2002, 2006)
Warm Event (Niño3-SOI) DJF SST Composite
El Niño Modoki DJF SST Composite
Cold Tongue El Niño (EP) and Warm Pool El Niño (WP)
• EP events = Standardized SONDJF NINO3 SST anomaly > 1 and should be grater than Standardized NINO4 anomaly.
• WP events = Standardized SONDJF NINO4 SST anomaly > 1 and should be grater than Standardized NINO3 anomaly.
Kug et. al, J. Climate, 2009
East Pacific Event (2N-2S)
Warm Pool Event (2N-2S)
All Events WP EP NINO3 SOI JJAS Anomaly (%)
1877/1878 N Y Y -32%
1888/1889 N Y Y -6%
1896/1897 N Y Y 1%
1899/1900 N Y Y -23%
1902/1903 N Y Y -5%
1904/1905 N N Y -10%
1905/1906 N Y Y -17%
1911/1912 N Y Y -14%
1914/1915 N N Y 7%
1918/1919 N Y Y -27%
1925/1926 N Y Y -4%
1930/1931 N Y N -5%
1939/1940 N N Y -6%
1940/1941 N N Y -1%
1941/1942 Y N Y -13%
1951/1952 N Y Y -15%
1957/1958 Y N Y -6%
1963/1964 N N Y 4%
1965/1966 N Y Y -18%
1968/1969 Y N N -7%
1969/1970 Y N Y 1%
1972/1973 N Y Y -21%
1977/1978 Y N N 5%
1982/1983 N Y Y -12%
1986/1987 Y N Y -13%
1987/1988 Y N N -18%
1990/1991 Y N N 7%
1991/1992 Y N Y -3%
1994/1995 Y N Y 14%
1997/1998 N Y Y 2%
2002/2003 Y N Y -21%
2003/2004 Y N N 2%
2004/2005 Y N N -10%
2006/2007 Y N N 3%
2009/2010 Y N Y NA
Composite JJAS Precipitation (season prior to peak of ENSO)
Niño3-SOI Event East Pacific Event Warm Pool Event
To be continued…..
• Rainfall datasets over India need a more thorough look
• Composite analysis of various “model” flavors of ENSO ongoing
• ENSO-Monsoon relationship in models also being looked at