ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
RT5: EvaluationAlbert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
RT5: EvaluationAlbert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini
Objective: to perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation/prediction system against observations/analyses
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
Achievements
• All RT5 deliverables and milestones are met
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
Achievements
• All RT5 deliverables and milestones are met
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
• Evaluation of global models used in multidecadal simulations (RT2a stream 1)– D5.5: systematic biases in the mean climate
and seasonal cycle (INGV, UREADMM, IPSL)
– D5.14: impact of model resolution on simulationof ENSO (INGV)
– D5.16: representation of cloud regimes in thetropics (IPSL)
– D5.17: representation of monsoon and itsteleconnection (IPSL)
Achievementsglobal and
multidecadal
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
• Evaluation of forecast quality with global models in s2d simulations (RT2a stream 1)– D5.3: probabilistic forecasts of rare extreme
events, incl. R-software (ECMWF, UREADMM)– D5.4: verification methods for forecasts of
extremeevents (UREADMM), plus websystem (KNMI)
– D5.7: skill in the seasonal prediction of NAO andPNA (ECMWF)
– D5.6: decadal forecast quality in the Indo-Pacificsector, discussion document (INGV, IPSL)
Achievementsglobal and
multidecadalglobal
and s2d
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
• Evaluation of regional models used in multidecadal simulations, with focus on extremes (RT2b and RT3)– D5.8: daily station dataset for gridding
(KNMI, MeteoSwiss)– D5.9: analysis of possible gridding methods
(UOXFDC, CRU)– D5.2: decadal scale variations of precipitation
extremes in ERA40 and Alpine observations
(ETH)
Achievementsglobal and
multidecadalglobal
and s2dregional andmultidecadal
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
• Evaluation of impact models (RT6)– D5.10: workshop “Lessons learned from
seasonalforecasting: health protection”(UNILIV, IRI)
Achievementsglobal and
multidecadalglobal
and s2dregional andmultidecadal
impactmodels
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
• Linkages between the 4 clusters (and gaps) were discussed at Monday’s RT5 meeting
• Coherent evaluation strategy will be outlined in the next PAR and soon available from the updated RT5-website
• Next few example diagrams:
Achievementsglobal and
multidecadalglobal
and s2dregional andmultidecadal
impactmodels
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
global andmultidecadal D5.5: INGV, UREADMM, IPSL
JFM mean precip, 1958-2000
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
global andmultidecadal D5.5: INGV, UREADMM, IPSL
JFM sd of precip, 1958-2000
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
globaland s2d
D5.7: ECMWF1-month lead NAO (DJF) hindcasts
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
regional andmultidecadal
D5.2: ETH
Bias correction of ERA40 precip in 3 Alpine regions, 1979-93
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
impactmodels
UNILIV
Rules based Malaria model run with ERA40 (1958-2001)
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
Plans, 1 of 2
• 8 deliverables and 4 milestones for RT5in next 18 months
• Will see the start of more regional work when gridded observational dataset for Europe and RCM simulations become available
• Stress that good access to all data is essential !
ENSEMBLES General AssemblyLund, Sweden, 22 November 2006
Plans, 2 of 2
• Extremes discussion: mismatch betweenhigh-impact extremes and statistically defined extremes
• Participate in upcoming meetings:– joint RT4/5/8 extremes workshop
Riederalp, 29 Jan- 2 Feb, 2007– 3rd WGNE workshop on systematic errors in climate and
NWP models, San Francisco, Feb 12-16, 2007– joint RT4/5/CFMIP meeting, Paris, Apr 11-13, 2007– EGU, Vienna, 15-20 Apr– …more on ENSEMBLES website…