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Liberia: Inputs to the Energy Access Action Plan, 20122030
Table of Contents
1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 2
1.1. Background ................................................................................................................................... 3
1.2. Looking forward ............................................................................................................................ 4
2. Increasing access to Electricity in Liberia: An Economic and Social Objective ..................................... 4
2.1. National electrification objectives for economic growth and social development ...................... 4
2.2. Key Dimensions of the Strategy .................................................................................................... 5
3. Transmission Infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 10
3.1. General ........................................................................................................................................ 10
3.2. Grid Development Philosophy .................................................................................................... 10
3.3. Transmission Grid Development ................................................................................................. 13
3.4. Implementation Arrangements .................................................................................................. 15
3.5. Transmission Grid Investment Summary .................................................................................... 16
4. Distribution Network .......................................................................................................................... 16
4.1. General ........................................................................................................................................ 17
4.2. Distribution System Development Philosophy ........................................................................... 19
4.3. Phased Development of Distribution Network ........................................................................... 21
4.4. Implementation Arrangements .................................................................................................. 22
4.5. Summary of Distribution Investment requirements ................................................................... 24
5. Demand Supply Balance ..................................................................................................................... 24
5.1. Electricity Demand Projections. .................................................................................................. 24
5.2. Supply projections....................................................................................................................... 26
5.3. Supply Options and Least-cost Generation expansion Plan ....................................................... 27
5.4. Demand-Supply gap .................................................................................................................... 29
5.5. Implementation arrangements for additional generation ......................................................... 31
6. Fuel Supply Infrastructure................................................................................................................... 34
6.1. Supply Price for Grid-Electricity .................................................................................................. 35
6.2. Fuel Pricing .................................................................................................................................. 36
6.3. Fuel supply and Fuel infrastructure for thermal generation ...................................................... 37
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6.4. Fuel requirements and sizing of fuel import infrastructure ....................................................... 38
6.5. Implementation arrangements for development of fuel supply infrastructure ......................... 38
7. Financial performance of the Utility and quality of service for the users .......................................... 39
7.1. Commercial management ........................................................................................................... 39
7.2. Connection cost .......................................................................................................................... 39
7.3. Tariff methodology and principles .............................................................................................. 40
7.4. Customer Mix .............................................................................................................................. 41
7.5. Attention to the Customers and Quality of Service Monitoring ................................................. 41
7.6. Capital and operating cost estimates, and phasing of investments for system improvements . 42
7.7. Implementation arrangements for handling commercial aspects ............................................. 42
7.8. Reducing losses from thefts ........................................................................................................ 43
8. Renewable Energy, Off-grid System, and Rural Electrification ........................................................... 43
8.1. Overview of renewable energy resource resources in Liberia ................................................... 43
8.2. Strategy for Rural Electrification: Policy objectives, and Implementing Framework. ............... 48
8.3. Planning Access Program. ........................................................................................................... 49
8.4. Institutional Options ................................................................................................................... 50
8.5. Pricing and Subsidy Policy ........................................................................................................... 51
8.6. Technical Options for Off-Grid Extension .................................................................................. 52
9. Investment Planning and Financing .................................................................................................... 55
10. Institutional Development and Capacity Development Strategy .................................................. 55
10.1. Clarification of roles and responsibilities ................................................................................ 55
10.2. Skills needed for the energy sector......................................................................................... 57
10.3. Gaps and capacity-building strategies .................................................................................... 57
10.4. Identification of potential sources of financing for institutional development and capacity
building ..57
11. Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................................... 58
1. Introduction
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1.1.Background
Before its civil war (19892003), Liberia had a total installed capacity of 182 MW (64 MW
hydropower, 68 MW gas turbines, 40 MW heavy fuel oil, 10 MW medium speed diesel), 98% of
which was located around Monrovia. The electricity sector had around 35,000 customers at thetime. The hydropower plant at Mount Coffee supplied 64 MW during the wet season and less
than 10 MW during the dry season. Outside Monrovia there were ten small isolated power
systems supplying rural areas.
At the end of the civil war in 2003, the power sector was largely destroyed due to warfare.
Whatever remained was destroyed through looting up to 2005. This included the complete
destruction of the hydropower plant at Mount Coffee as well as all the transmission lines and the
distribution network. The Liberia Electricity Corporation (LEC), the national electricity utility,
ceased operations. Less than 2% of Liberias population had access to electricity.
In order to overcome this critical situation of the electricity sector, the Sirleaf Government has
embraced energy development as a priority and has been working toward the reconstruction of
the electricity sector at the urban, rural, and regional levels. National Energy Policy (NEP),
endorsed in June 2009calls for universal and sustainable access to affordable and reliable energy
supplies to foster the economic, political, and social development of Liberia. The NEP sets four
main pillars to achieve its developmental goals: (i) universal energy access, including the
development of an energy master plan; (ii) least-cost production of energy and protection of the
most vulnerable households; (iii) the adoption of international best practices in the electricity
sector; and (iv) the acceleration of public and private partnership in the sector.
Since the elections in 2006, achievements are clearly visible. As LECs basic functions were
restored a five year Management Contract was signed in July 2010 with Manitoba Hydro
International (MIH) and the support of the international donor community. A small grid was
rebuilt and is supplied with electricity by high-speed diesel generators with a total capacity of 9.6
MW in 2009. Electricity is distributed through four separate sub-stations. Finally, in early 2010
and for the first time in Liberias history, a Rural and Renewable Energy Agency (RREA) has
dedicated its services solely to rural areas, including the rural poor.
More recently, installed generation capacity increased from 9 MW to 22.6 MW of diesel-generatedpower from 2010 to 2012, of which about 16 MW are effectively available. In addition, several donors
are supporting the expansion of generation in the short term (see table below), and the implementation of
a regional transmission network, linking Liberia to the West African Power Pool (WAPP), and
connecting Cte dIvoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea (CSLG). This will make it possible for
Liberia to import cheaper power from other countries, such as Cte dIvoire, and it would also transform
the domestic power system in Liberia-- and Sierra Leoneby building the backbone transmission lines
in those countries, which have very limited electricity infrastructure.
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GoLs efforts to reconstruct and develop the transmission and distribution network and expand
coverage services to the population have benefitted from strong international donor support. US$
55 M of public funding is currently available for the development of the transmission and
distribution network. As the power system improved, peak demand went up from 4 MW to 8.6 MW.
LEC has increased its active customer base from 2,000 to 5,800 customers (less than 1% of the national
population).
In sum, there have been significant progress in rebuilding the power sector from the situation it was left
after the war. Yet, much remains to be done, and the country faces still important challenges to be able to
provide modern electricity services to its population. Lack of basic electricity infrastructure, high costs
reflected in a tariff that is among the highest in the region, low quality of the service that deter
commercial and industrial users from using LECs services instead ofself-generation, a generation mix
based on expensive imported fuel and a lack of a solid pipeline of generation projects that could increase
the electricity available at a lower cost in the medium term are some of the obstacles that will need to be
addressed in order to place Liberias electricity sector on a sustainable development path.
1.2.Looking Forward
Building on results achieved so far, the GOL has adopted an ambitious strategy to expand coverage,
improve the quality of electricity services (summarized in the next section) and reduce the costs of these
services. Reducing the cost of electricity and improving quality and reliability of service will be key to
foster economic activity and facilitate the long term development of the country. It intends to
operationalize this strategy through a detailed action plan for the short term (2012-2015) and a more
indicative plan over a medium term horizon (2012-2030).
The remaining sections of this document elaborate on the GOLs vision and key ideas as communicated
to the World Bank team during the last mission. It also incorporates emerging best practices for the
GOLs consideration. Technical figures and projections are based on the data available to the team, and
will need to be updated based on more recent estimates by LEC and other sources.
2. Increasing Access to Electricity in Liberia: An Economic and Social Objective
2.1.National Electrification Objectives for Economic Growth and Social Development
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Having re-established electricity services to key areas of the capital and having launched an initial
program of connections for poor customers, GOL has now shifted its strategy from crisis management to
the medium and long term development of the electricity sector. This vision, which includes clear
development goals, was outlined in the National Energy Policy (NEP) adopted in 2009. It was further
developed in 2012, when GOL announced an ambitious plan to bring electricity services to a significant
share of the Liberian population (35% countrywide and 70% for Monrovia) by 2030. The plan aims toachieve the quality and reliability of electricity services required to ensure that the electricity sector does
not continue to be a major bottleneck to the countrys economic growth and development. The plan
further aims to expand the economic uses of electricity in urban and rural areas.
2.2.Key Dimensions of the Strategy
An action plan to achieve these ambitious objectives to improve and expand electricity in the country
would require the GoL to take actions on several fronts simultaneously. This section outlines the key
dimensions that are essential to the success of the Governments Energy Access Strategy.
2.2.1. A Transmission and Distribution Led StrategyThe Governments vision for the development of the electricity sector is based on a transmission and
distribution led strategy, and on the expansion of the associated generation capacity to respond to the
expected increase in demand. Given the scant infrastructure, the GOL is aware that accelerating coverage
and offering reliable services will require massive investments in transmission, distribution and metering
equipment. GOLs specific T&D expansion objectives over the short and medium term are examined in
greater detail in section 5 and 6.
Since 2006, LEC has focused on the rehabilitation of the power network and the restoration of services in
the main areas of Monrovia. However, given the envisioned expansion of the transmission and
distribution network, it may be important for the GoL to rethink LECs role as the national utility. The
accelerated expansion will likely require LEC to resume its role as a utility with country-wide
responsibilities. For instance, the GoL has indicated that LEC will be expected to serve a larger customer
base in Greater Monrovia and outside of the capital, such as commercial and industrial users currently
relying on auto-generated supply. Given that the GOL is currently renegotiating the management
contract with Manitoba Hydro International (MIH), this may represent an opportunity to discuss LECs
evolving role in ensuring a successful implementation of the Governments expansion plan.
2.2.2. Reducing Cost of Electricity for Greater affordability and Sustainable Increase inDemand
Electricity tariffs in Liberia are among the highest in the region. Nevertheless, they still fall short of fully
recovering the cost of producing electricity. In part, these tariffs are subsidized by the donors through the
provision of capital at subsidized rates, and by the Government through subsidizing current costs. The
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high electricity cost are due in part to the high cost of generation that is based on diesel-fired generation,
the small scale of the system that prevents the use of larger and more efficient generation units, and to
inefficiencies in transmission and distribution. The reasons for such high costs, and the actions to be
taken to reduce them are discussed in various parts of this document. However, it is important to
highlight from the outset that the high cost of electricity and the low quality of services are a major
obstacle to the success of a strategy aiming to expand access and services to a larger share of thepopulation in Liberia. Unless cost decrease and tariffs follow the lead, poor users will not be able to
afford the services, even if enough resources are secured to expand the network and allow these users to
be connected to the grid. Equally important, unless the utility is able to provide reliable service of high
quality to commercial and industrial users, it may not be able to convince them to give up self generation
and connect to the national grid.
To improve the provision of electricity services, the GoL requested the support of the development
partners, who provided in 2010 emergency funding to the national utility, LEC to procure a management
contractor to improve the utilitys performance and build up its customer base over a five year period.
LECs management contractor Manitoba Hydro International has been in place since July 2010.Operational results have been clearly identified. MHI is expected to establish 33,000 new connections
over a five-year period, resulting in an additional 160,000 people in Monrovia having electricity for the
first time since the war, and to reduce technical and commercial losses from 29 to 12 percent. Also,
capacity building should result in LECs ability to sustain improved operational performance over the
long term (see section 7).
However, the high electricity costs are caused to a substantial part by the predominance of fuel-based
thermal generation. The Government has already decided to shift from diesel to heavy fuel based
thermal plants in the development of new generation in the short term. Further progress in this direction
would require government strategic considerations to focus not only on how to expand generation
capacity, but also on how to shift the energy mix towards sources of energies that would in the mediumterm lead to lower electricity cost. This is an important aspect of the Government Sector Strategy that is
discussed further in sections 3 and 8 of this document.
2.2.3. Expanding Generation CapacityThe need to develop additional generation capacity in the short and medium term is a direct consequence
of the GOLs strategy to rapidly expand services to the population. The expected accelerated demand
growth has to be accommodated and also modulated to smooth out demand peaks and reduce pressure for
additional capacity. Mechanisms such as interruptible tariffs for large customers could be one way of
managing efficiently the demand, but ultimately, the expansion of the system and resulting increase in thedemand from customers will require investing in additional generation capacity. Given the demands on
public funding by the expansion of the transmission and distribution network, GOL aims to develop new
generation capacity mainly through private sector sponsorship. Securing this new generation capacity is a
pressing concern for the Government, since it is expected that the accelerated growth of demand will lead
to generation shortages already by the end of 2013, despite the various thermal plants already in the
pipeline, the rehabilitation of Mt. Coffee and the regional imports from the CLSG.
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The GoL has indicated that the shift from diesel to cleaner and cheaper sources of energy is another driver
of its energy strategy. Alternative energy sources would reduce the cost of electricity to end users -and
would help the Liberian economy to shift onto a path of lower carbon growth and development. In the
short term, this shift requires scaling up the thermal generation capacity based on Heavy Fuel, completing
the rehabilitation of the hydroelectric Mt. Coffee Plant, and exploring additional hydroelectric powerfrom the Saint Paul River. The diversification of energy sources will also be facilitated by the integration
of Liberia into the West African Power Pool through the CLSG regional transmission line. The CLSG
regional transmission line will allow Liberia to import cheaper hydroelectric power from the regional
market, notably from Cte dIvoire. In the medium term, an important part of the strategy to adopt a
cleaner and cheaper energy mix for the country could include further exploring hydroelectric resources
from the Saint Paul River, increasing electricity trade on the regional market, and analyzing options for
diversifying towards wood chip biomass or other biofuels. In the longer term, options such as using gas
could also be considered, perhaps by bundling Liberias demand with that of other neighboring countries,
to achieve economies of scale and hence more favorable prices.
2.2.4. Ensuring Sustainable and Cost Effective Availability of FuelThrough the sector strategys focus on shifting from diesel to Heavy Fuel (HF), the GOL has manifested a
strong commitment to rehabilitate the port facilities (oil jetty, storage terminal, and other facilities) and
the fuel supply system required to bring fuel from the port to the generation plants. The GoL has
initiated the rehabilitation of LECs fuel storage tanks at Bushrod facility with the support of international
donors (under the World Bank financed LESEP project). It also has engaged in discussions with private
oil companies involved in HF trade and transportation. An agreement has been reached to transport HF by
trucks to the new thermal plants as they enter into operation. Simultaneously, the GoL is working todevelop a more comprehensive solution based on the rehabilitation of the pipeline in order to secure a
reliable supply of Heavy Fuel for the additional generation capacity needed to bridge the demand-supply
gap.
The Government has indicated that the shift to HF-based generation would allow for part of the cost-
savings from cheaper fuel to translate into cheaper tariffs for end-users. Reduced tariffsto reflect
reduced costs-- would help remove a major obstacle for increasing effective demand for electricity, and
will help the GoL to achieve the envisaged expansion of coverage and service improvements.
2.2.5. Strengthening the Financial and Operational Sustainability of the SectorThe public sector will always play an important role in the planning and development of the
electricity sector, but ultimately the long term sustainability of the sector will depend on its
capacity to generate internal resources through customer fees and savings from increased
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efficiency, and its ability to attract private sector resources notably in the generation segment.
The extent to which the sector achieves long term sustainability will help lessening the fiscal
burden on the government, and will facilitate economic activity and growth, by releasing one of
the key constraints to private sector development in Liberia1.
2.2.5.1. Improving Financial and Operational Performance of the Utility
A significant part of the commercialization strategy focuses on the operational and financial strengthening
of the public utility, LEC. Measures include all efforts to reduce costs, such as the shift from diesel to
heavy fuel or hydroelectricity and the use of pre-paid meters or of interruptible tariffs for large customers.
The strategy also requires LEC to undertake an active campaign to expand its client base to include a
significant number of commercial and industrial customers. LEC should be willing to shift from self-
generation to grid connections to offer these potential customers the reliable, high quality service at
reasonable prices that they need. Increasing the regular paying customer base, particularly large ones,
together with GPOBAs grant for connecting over 16,000 poor households, should help LEC gain a
stronger financial footing. This will enhance its credibility as the off-taker when new private sector-ledgeneration enters the Liberian energy market.
2.2.5.2. Attracting Private Investment in Generation
Equally important, the GoL has highlighted that it expects the private sector to play a leading role in the
development of the generation capacity of the country, while the Government would focus public
resources on the expansion of the transmission and distribution network. Expanding generation capacity
through private sector initiatives would leverage the use of public resources. Private electricity
generation would also increase the efficiency of the sector through transfer of technical and managerial
expertise.
An approach focused on increasing private participation in the electricity generation in Liberia has thus
many advantages and would complement very well the Governments efforts. At the same time,
attracting private investors on a sustainable basis depends critically on several factors that need to be in
place for this strategy to be successful:
Enabling environment for private sector participation: private investors need an enabling
environment, including but not limited to a clear and predictable legal and regulatory framework
in which contracts can be properly signed, enforced and monitored;
Broad public consensus on the benefits of private sector participation for the country in general,
and service users in particular. This matters as it would facilitate the support of the legislative
branch in ratifying contracts, and avoid any public backlash during the life of the projects;
Solid pipeline of potential projects, based on the GoLs overall sector expansion plan that will
give the Government a credible starting point to discuss with interested sponsors and lenders how
they can participate in the sector.
1 Liberia Investment Climate Policy Note 2010, World Bank publication, cited in Developing Public-PrivatePartnerships in Liberia,, PPIAF-World Bank Study, 2012..
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Institutional capacity within the government to lead the dialogue and engage effectively with the
private sector: this entails the presence of committed key official(s) in charge of bringing the
process from start to finish; the existence of technical expertise about private sector participation
in electricity that can be leveraged (but not substituted) by external consultants, and a strong
inter-institutional coordination among all relevant agencies involved in the process.
Given the interest of the Government to attract private investors to increase generation capacity
in the short term, it may be important to focus (1) on launching some key projects, based on
sound and carefully drafted contracts, and (2) focus on developing the overall legal and
regulatory framework for private sector participation (consistent with the individual contracts) to
facilitate a broader engagement in the sector of private investors. The support of the donor
community with risk mitigation instruments, such as guarantees of different sorts will be critical,
because they will help the government to build up credibility and a track record of its own. A
similar approach could be adopted with the objective of strengthening institutional capacity in
the energy sector for PSP: use one or two transactions as training-on-the-job opportunities for
government officials with the appropriate qualifications (economical, financial, engineering,
legal, etc.) to prepare specific transactions with the support of external consultants. These first
transactions, if successful, will have a demonstration effect beyond the sector, as they will
demonstrate the capacity of Liberia to be a trusted partner for local and international private
investors.
2.2.6. Institutional Development and Capacity BuildingInvestment in human capital and the reconstruction of physical infrastructure are central pillars of the
GoLs development strategy. In the energy sector, the Government Energy Access Strategy includes a
plan for institutional development and capacity building for the institutions involved in the sector,
including the Ministry of Mines, Lands and Energy (MLME), the Rural and Renewable Energy Agency
(RREA), LISGIS, and LEC. The plan will play a key role in strengthening the governance of the sector
and the capacity of the utility to deliver the services.
It is particularly important to rebuild the technical and managerial skills of a population severely affected
by the war. For this reason, it would be important not only to implement the necessary training programs,
but also to ensure that all contracts with experts of all sorts (technical assistance as well as commercial
contracts) include commitments to transfer expertise to local personal, with easily monitorable
performance indicators. This approach has been used already in the management contract with ManitobaInternational Hydro with the support of the international donor community, and could be replicated in
other cases as well.
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3. Transmission Infrastructure
3.1.General
The demand forecast presented in the Electric Master Plan (LEC 2011) for Monrovia as well asthe document Options for the Development of Liberia Energy Sector (World Bank, 2011),
both predicted high levels of demand for Liberia in the years to come compared to the current
situation. The LEC High Case Scenario 3 (unconstraint) predicted demand of 2015 Monrovia
(Est 2015 pop 1.1M ) is 75MW. The High Growth demand forecast in The Options for the
Development of Liberias Energy Sector [AFTEG, 2011] predicts a demand of 150MW for
Monrovia by 2030.2
In this document the LEC forecast is used for Monrovia whilst the forecast in the Options for
the Development ofLiberia Energy Sector (World Bank, 2011) is used for the remainder ofLiberia, as. (The LEC Master Plan forecast only covers Monrovia).
The grid development program presented in this document is largely conceptual and only meant
to be indicative of future requirements. A rigorous technical design involving load flows, short
circuit analysis, and reliability investigations was beyond the scope of this desktop study. Such
an exercise which remains to be done would have to confirm adequacy of the circuits to carry
their expected loads under normal and emergency conditions, and ensure voltage drop and
technical losses fall within acceptable limits and that supply reliability criteria are met.
3.2.Grid Development Philosophy
3.2.1. Voltage LevelsThe Government of Liberia has started the reconstruction of the distribution (22kV) and the sub-
transmission (66kV) lines in Monrovia .The Regional Transmission Line interconnection Cote
dIvoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone; Guinea (CLSG Regional Transmission Line) introduces 225kV
as the extra high voltage for transmission. The CLSG Regional Transmission Line is also
equipped in 3 substations in Liberia with a secondary voltage of 33kV and the substation
2 While currently the economic circumstances of Ghana cannot be compared with those of Liberia, it is believed thatin the long term, once Liberia gets to the development of its vast natural resources that comparison can beworthwhile. In comparison with the demand estimated for Monrovia under LECs high case scenario of (75MW in2015), thedemand for 2011 for Accra (pop 3.5Million) was 443MW; which can be projected at 7% growth rate peryear to 581MW by 2015. Similarly demand forecast for Accra for 2015 amounts to 182. 5 MW for 1.1 M peoplehigher in pro rata terms than the prediction of demand for Monrovia by 2030. Thus, these comparisons ofMonrovias forecast of demand, with the evolution of demand in Accra, show that even the high case demandforecast figures for Monrovia are not overstated.
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connecting Mount Coffee with a secondary voltage of 66kK. This means that the 22kV and 66kV
combination would apply in Monrovia while 33kV would be used for both sub-transmission and
distribution in the rest of the country.
With 33kV as the sub-transmission voltage outside Monrovia, there may be the need to extendthe 225kV grid within the foreseeable future in order to be able to serve some parts of the south
east of the country which are far from the proposed 225kV grid.
3.2.2. Sub transmission Level DevelopmentGiven the high levels of growth expected, it is necessary to size the lines appropriately to be able
to provide for the foreseeable future. The schedule shows the selected line sizes and their thermal
MVA ratings.
Line Type 66kV 33kV
i) 3X265 mm2 AAC [Heavy Gauge] 80 MVA 40MVA
ii) 3X150 mm2 AAC [ Light gauge] 50 MVA 25MVA
The 66kV and 33kV networks should be designed as much as feasible for construction in loops
or rings. Further, such loops and rings would, in turn, be inter-linked. The proposed
arrangements will help improve reliability. Where a ring circuit cannot be justified for cost
reasons radial feeders may be used.
3.2.3. 225kV SubstationsThe CLSG Regional Transmission Line will have a transformational impact on the national
power systems by building the Liberia backbone transmission line that is able to connect the
counties far from Monrovia. However, some counties, for instance Grand Kru, Maryland, Grand
Gedeh and Sinoe, are so far away from any of the current planned substations in the CLSG
Regional Transmission Line that a cost effective connection is not possible. Very long lines
would be required to connect these counties with grid power. This would also present technical
challenges such as high transmission losses and poor voltage regulation.
In order to reach out to the majority of the population in a cost effective way with reliable
power, it is proposed, and included in this plan, to construct a fifth substation of 222/33kV at
Bolata.
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3.2.4. 66kV 33kV and 22kV Substations CharacteristicsThe design and construction of substations involving these voltage levels should be such that
they can be upgraded or expanded to accommodate twin transformers and sectionalized buses.
It is advised that all 66kV and 33kV equipment be of outdoor type to provide for flexibility for
upgrades, replacement etc. 22kV equipment may be indoor type, metal-clad with appropriate
degree of protection eg. IP41
The capacity of 66/22kVsubstation now in use is 1X10/13MVA. Within a few years of robust
load growth this would not be adequate in some locations in Monrovia. For about 15% more
investment such a substation could be provided with a 1X20/26MVA capacity. Therefore, it is
proposed that all future procurement of this type of power transformers should include the larger
20/26MVA units. (Most of the other components of the substations are exactly the same foreither size of transformer, including switchgear).
3.2.5. Control systemSCADA
The CLSG Regional Transmission Line and its substations are to be provided with a SCADA
system under the CLSG project. A primary SCADA system is also proposed for the Monrovia
Mt Coffee area. This will cover the three proposed 66/22kV substations as well as the existing
two at Bushrod and Paynesville.
It is also proposed that two SCADA systems would be provided. First, a SCADA system would
be provided at least for the proposed switching Station at Fish Town. Second, a SCADA system
would be required to control the sub-grids of the various county capitals.
Considering the development of a power network system and how the system would be built in
phases, it is recommended to consider a substation equipment to be SCADA-ready in order to
ensure compatibility and harmonized synchronization and operation.
3.2.6. Rights-of-WayThroughout the development of the power system network, it would be required from LEC, with
the support of the MLML and the GOL, to secure the transmission lines rights-of-way as well as
sites for substations. Best practices indicate that a 30m wide corridor is typical for sub
transmission lines and somewhat less for 22kV lines.
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The rights-of-way must be sufficient to provide safety for persons and for development of future
networks along existing ones.
It may be necessary for LEC with the support of GOL to secure transmission lines rights of way
as well as sites for substations. A 30m wide corridor is typical for sub transmission lines.Somewhat less can be used for 22kV lines.
The rights of way must be sufficient to provide safety for persons and for development of future
networks along existing ones.
3.2.7. SkywireA scheme of Single Wire Earth Return (SWER) would be used utilize the skywire on the
proposed CLSG Regional Transmission Line 225kV to reach communities that come under the
line.
3.3.Transmission Grid Development
This planning exercise recommends the development of the transmission power grid in phases in
order to match the demand forecast, and facilitate the implementation of the reconstruction of the
power sector. Based on the GoL ambitious targets to accelerate the expansion of services to the
population, it is assumed that investments in transmission and distribution would be expanded to
cover 70 percent of the greater Monrovia residents and 35 percent of the population in the
country by 2030.
3.3.1. Development in the Greater Monrovia Area (Phase 1)The first phase for the transmission investments in this plan considers the period from 2012-2015
and is composed of the LECs Master plan for the period of 2012 to 2015 (See Annex 4) with its
geographical limitation, as well as the Greater Monrovia Area. The LECs Master Plan cost
estimations for the period of 2012-2015 indicates an investment requirement ofUS $ 81,583,604.
This phase will also include the three following areas:
i) Paynesville to Airport
ii) Monrovia to Kakata
iii) Monrovia to Bomi Hills/Kle
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This Plan includes a proposal for a heavy gauge 66kV ring around Monrovia to interconnect the
three target locations instead of simply constructing individual radial lines to serve them. This
ring runs from PaynesvilleHarbel (Airport)Kakata - Mt Coffee to Bushrod . In addition a
radial line is proposed to link Bushrod to Bomi Hills.
As part of this rings, it would be required a 66kV/22kV Substations that are proposed to be
located at Harbel/Airport, Kakata and Bomi Hills respectively. 22kV lines would then continue
downstream to serve as the distribution MV network. These proposed lines traverse very fast-
developing suburbs of Greater Monrovia and beyond. The provision of electricity to these areas
is essential since larger loads and economic activities are located in these areas.
An interconnection of 66/33kVsubstation is proposed for Harbel to provide a link between the
66kV Mount Coffee sub-grid and the Buchanan 225kV substation. This will help provide some
emergency grid supply to Monrovia in the event of a contingency at Mount Coffee hydro power
plan.
A conceptual design has been done based on the Transmission Grid Development Philosophy in
Section 5.2. The proposed Grid Layout from this activity is attached as Appendix 2 while the
Grid Single Line Diagram is presented as Appendix 3.
To facilitate future connections to such a system LEC should specify all its proposed substation
equipment to be SCADA-ready. A general provision of $4M is made for this equipment.
The schedule of Transmission Investment Requirements under Phase1 is to be found in
Appendix 1.
3.3.2. Transmission Grid Development: Country wide Phases 2, 3 and 4Phases 2, 3 and 4 of the transmission grid development plan cover all areas outside Monrovia.
However provision is also made for the expansion of the grid in Monrovia beyond 2015 since it
is expected a demand increase in the area. Development in the three phases would involve the
construction of 33kV circuits from the proposed 225/33kV, construction of switching stations,
SCADA and Skywire in order to supply the towns en route the transmission lines. This access
plan considers the connection of 50 communities along the three phases of implementation.
In order to identify the priority to interconnect certain load centers during the three phases, it is
necessary to have a clear and upfront set of criteria for the planning exercise. The following set
of criteria is proposed:
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a) Top Priority: Towns nearest to the proposed 225 Substations Phase 2
b) Second Priority: Other towns but not covered by the Cross-Border project Phase 3
c) Least priority: Counties covered by Cross-border project Phase 4
A conceptual design has been carried out based on the transmission Grid DevelopmentPhilosophy provided in Section 5.2. The proposed Grid Layout from this activity is attached as
Appendix 2 while the Grid Single Line Diagram is presented as Appendix 3. The design
proposals include interconnections between sub-grids of 225 substations.
3.4.Implementation Arrangements
3.4.1. Appraisal Prior to Implementation of Each PhaseAs indicated in the previous sections, this indicative plan should be complemented with more
detail on the economic, financial and technical aspects of the expansion of the electricity sector.Likewise, environmental consideration should be also included.
On the technical aspects, a rigorous Load Flow Analysis would be required in the technicalinvestigation to ensure adequacy of line and substations loading capacity. This Load FlowAnalysis will determinate the beat economical operation for the existing system, so it isnecessary to update this analysis in each of the phases so adjustment can be made to access plan.This analysis is also very valuable since this will identify the proper protection devices to insurethe security of the system.
3.4.2. Project Packaging StrategyFor each phase the procurement may be divided into packages as proposed below:
Package ActivityProcurement
Method
1. Transmission Lines Supply& Erect I C B
2. Substations Supply& Erect I C B
Depending on size the Transmission Lines package may be divided in two Lots for easier
implementation.
3.4.3. Project Management
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It is proposed that LEC capabilities are enhance in order to be able to properly handling of
project procurement from tendering, through evaluation, negotiation and contract signing.
LEC would be responsible for supervision during construction. In Phase 1 the Management
Contract can support the implementation of the investments. For subsequent Phases, therewould be the need for technical assistance in the absence of Manitoba Hydro International
whose current contract would have expired.
3.4.4. Institutional Capacity DevelopmentThe provisions made under Distribution system Development Sub-Section 4.4.4 also cover for
the Transmission Development component. Thus no additional provision is made here.
3.5.Transmission Grid Investment Summary
Phase Description Cost (US $)
Phase 1 Monrovia (2013-2015) Lines and Substations 19,543,045
Phase 1 Monrovia (2013- 2016) As Per LEC Master Plan 81,583,604
Phase 2 All Liberia (2016-2020) Lines and Substations 20,335,612
Phase 3 All Liberia (2021-2025) Lines and Substations 22,991,799
Phase 4 All Liberia (2026-2030) Lines and Substations 34,194,246
Provision for Skywire Supply ($ 15,000 each for 50 Towns) 750,000
SCADA 4,000,000
Total183,398,306
Add 10% Physical and contingencies 18,339,831
Total For Transmission Grid Investment 201,738,137
4. Distribution Network
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4.1.General
Over the plan period it is expected that electricity distribution supply would be expanded to
cover 70% of the greater Monrovia residents and 35 percent of the population elsewhere.
According to the 2008 population the population in Liberia was 3,489,072 people with 1,010,970
people living in Monrovia. These two figures are extrapolated at the compound rate of 2.1percent
per year until to 2030 with a total population of 5,511,581 in Liberia and 1,596,999 in Monrovia.
The difference between the two figures of 3,914,582 is the 2030 projected population for outside
Monrovia
At an average of 5 residents per household we have 782,916 and 319,400 households for the rest
of Liberia and Monrovia respectively, by 2030. (Pop growth rate and # residents /household
obtained from Census Report 2008)
Assuming a target of 70% access to electricity in Monrovia, this would result in 223,580
households in Monrovia. Similarly, achieving 35% access to electricity in the rest of the country,
this would represent 274,020 households. However, it is important to point out that this
indicative planning needs a more detail analysis in order to confirm the population and location.
In order to achieve these targets it is important to consider the expansion the power grid in the
greater Monrovia area with transmission and distribution grids of 66kV and 22kV. For the
remainder of the country it is proposed the following criteria to achieve the national target of
electrification:
i) All County Capitals and Towns of population greater than 5,000.ii) Areas immediately outside Monrovia which are to benefit from extensive
grid extension (e.g. Harbel, Kakata. Bomi Hills)iii) Cross-Border Towns Electrificationiv) Skywire Supply along 225kV lines.
Information received from LEC indicates that there is an ongoing contract with EU support for
the connection of 18 communities in Grand Dedeh, Maryland and Nimba Counties through
cross-border collaboration with the Cote dIvoire. The 9,6Million, which will be completed by
July 2013, would get electricity to 131,000 citizens; or 26,200 using the Census data of average 5
persons per household. LEC is expecting supply from Cote dIvoire of about 8MVA. This is
taken into account in the plan preparation.
The following Schedule shows the towns and county capital, their populations and expected
numbers of customer connections by 2030. The schedule was adapted from the 2008 National
Census. The number of persons/household (5) and the population growth rate (2.1%pa), which
were obtained from the Preliminary Census Report 2008, are used to estimate customer
connections by 2030.
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Schedule of County Capitals and Other Towns For 33/66kV Grid Supply
City County 2008 Pop 2012 Pop
2030
Pop
# Customers
2030
Monrovia Montserrado 1,010,970 1,098,604 1,596,999 319,400
Ganta Nimba 41,106 44,669 64,934 12,987
Buchanan Grand bassa 34,270 37,241 54,135 10,827
Gbarnga Bong 34,046 36,997 53,781 10,756
Kakata Margibi 33,945 36,887 53,622 10,724
Voinjama Lofa 26,594 28,899 42,010 8,402
Zwedru*
Grand
Gedeh 23,903 25,975 37,759 7,552
Harbel Margibi 23,402 25,431 36,967 7,393
Pleebo* Maryland 22,963 24,954 36,274 7,255
Foya Lofa 19,522 21,214 30,838 6,168
Harper* Maryland 17,837 19,383 28,177 5,635
Greenville Sinoe 16,434 17,859 25,960 5,192
Tubmanburg Bomi 13,114 14,251 20,716 4,143
Sacleapea Nimba 12,117 13,167 19,141 3,828
Sanniquellie Nimba 11,415 12,404 18,032 3,606
Karnplay Nimba 7,664 8,328 12,107 2,421
River Gbeh River Gee 7,313 7,947 11,552 2,310
Zorzor Lofa 5,131 5,576 8,105 1,621
Cesstos City Cess River 2,578 2,801 4,072 814
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Fish Town* River Gee 3,328 3,616 5,257 1,051
Bensonville Montserrado 4,089 4,443 6,459 1,292
Robertsport Grand Cape 3,933 4,274 6,213 1,243
Bopolu Gbarpolu 2,908 3,160 4,594 919
Barclayville Grand Kru - -
TOTAL 1,378,582 1,498,082 2,177,704 435,541
*Already included in the Cross-Border Electrification Project.
In this indicative plan, it is proposed to have the following implementation periods for each
phase so a proper implementation would be handled:
Phase 1 2012 2015
Phase 2 2016 2020
Phase 3 2020 2025
Phase 4 2026 2030
4.2.Distribution System Development Philosophy
4.2.1. Medium Voltage for Distribution
The medium voltage for distribution Monrovia is 22kV. LEC has indicated that they intended to
retain this voltage level for the Greater Monrovia and to use 33kV for all other areas in the
country. Also LEC indicated that the 66kV subtransmission voltage would be limited to
Monrovia.
It is not clear why three levels of voltage are chosen within such a close range.
An investigation might be needed to justify another voltage level between the 22kV and 66kV
outside of Monrovia. For this report, the 22kV and 66kV combination is retained for Monrovia
while 33kV is used elsewhere.
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The proposed 22kV and 33kV Medium Voltage (MV) distribution lines would be fed from 66/22kV and 225/33kV CLSG substations respectively. Two capacities of distribution MV lines areproposed:
i) 3x150 AAC, for the main MV distribution linesii) 3x50 AAC, for spur distribution lines.
4.2.2. Low Voltage NetworkIt has been observed that while the low voltage distribution concept is the traditional practice in
the Liberian system, high voltage distribution system (HVDS) is being introduced. HVDS
presents a number of advantages principally in the area of lower technical losses. The downside
of it is that HVDS is more expensive, and therefore less connections could be achieved with the
available resources.
In discussions with LEC they indicated that the stealing of electricity was so rampant that
aggressive measures were being adopted to control it. One of the measures is to have zero LV
network and do all distribution at medium voltage. LEC believe that this approach, while it may
be at least 15% more expensive than the LV distribution, would justify the extra investment
through the curbing of theft and to a lesser extent, reduction of losses.
However it has been noted that the ongoing cross-border electrification project is being done
exclusively with low voltage distribution. Perhaps a HVDS may be used in the urban centers
where there is heavier loads and greater propensity to steal electricity and LV distribution
retained for rural areas. Given the significant additional costs of opting for only HDVS, and the
lesser impact that such approach could have in the rural areas (where other ways to reduce theft
could be used instead) , it would be important assess the alternative approach that is proposed
here before finalizing the plan for expanding the distribution system nation wide. Further
discussion on the strategies adopted in Liberia and in other developing countries can be found in
section 7.8.
High Voltage Distribution System (HVDS) has been used in this indicative plan for the
distribution of electricity throughout the system. It is expected that, by the time of
implementation, the policy direction would become clearer.
4.2.3. Metering and Customers ServiceIn principle, the current practice of split type prepayment metering would be used in the
connection of service to customers. However the specifications of the meters may be reviewed to
ensure the most current anti- tamper features are provided in the meter. Also all meters to be
used for larger customers(e.g. with consumption in excess of 500kWh (or perhaps 1000 kWh)
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per month, may be provided with GPRS modems to enable their remote reading, monitoring and
disconnection, an investment in this feature (about $60 apiece) can be easily justified for such
large customers. This metering system would facilitate the understanding of the load
characteristics and better demand side management measures could be proposed. In turn, this
will facilitate to defer large investments in generation capacity. Given these advantages, this isthe metering system being proposed.
With more and more connection of prepaid meters would come the need to aggressively establish
vending stations as close as possible to the customer. This would be achieved through the use of
third parties, especially operators of small businesses that run beyond normal working hours (e.g.
gas stations, pharmacies). Such vending stations have to be linked by wide area network.
4.3.Phased Development of Distribution Network
4.3.1. Phase 1 (2013- 2015): MonroviaCurrent (2012) demand for Monrovia is 8.7MW whilst the forecast 2015 is 75.1MW. The
incremental demand for T&D provision should be made accordingly so 66.4MW additional
generation can be absorbed and will result in an additional 86,648 customers.
In the LEC master Plan document the average cost for connecting one customer works out to be
$950.65. This was obtained from actual contracts and is considered reasonable to use in
calculating the distribution investment costs in the Plan. The estimated cost for the 86,648
customers is thus, $86,648 x 950,65 = $82.4Million.
4.3.2. Distribution Works Under Phase 2 Through Phase 4 (20162030)Phases 2 through 4 cover the remaining counties outside Monrovia. They also provide for natural
continuous works in Monrovia beyond 2015. It is recognized that implementation of these
Phases is contingent on the realization of the CLSG 225kV line project, complete with five grid
substations (4 confirmed in Project, one additional proposed). Under these phases grid supply is
expected to be extended to all county capitals and other selected towns.
The expected 35% customer coverage outside Monrovia by 2030 is determined as off.
2008 Census Pop of Liberia2008 Census Pop of Monrovia = 2,478,102 (3,489,072 -1,010,970)
Extrapolate by 2,1% p.a to 2030 gives 3,914,583 Divide by 5 persons per household gives 782,917 Multiply by 0.35, gives 274,021Customers to be connected by 2030.
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Deducting an estimated 26,200 (131,000/5) to be provided for in the cross-border electrification,
works out to a deficit of 247,821 customers to be provided for in the Plan outside Monrovia.
By 2030 the potential and existing customer population for Monrovia is similarly determined to
be 319,400. The target is 70% coverage or 223,580. Deducting 86,648 already provided for in
Phase 1works out to be 136,932 additional customers for Monrovia between 2016 and 2030. .
The associated investment costs are:
Monrovia 20162030 $136,932 x 950.65 = $130.2M
Outside Monrovia $247,821 x 950.65 = $ 235.6M
In the absence of any detailed work these costs are for now shared equally among Phases 2, 3
and 4.
Technical Assistance and Institutional capacity Development are provided at 2.5% and 10% ofthese costs respectively.
4.4. Implementation Arrangements
4.4.1. Appraisal Prior to Implementation of Each PhaseAs indicated earlier, no thorough economic, financial and technical appraisal has been done in
this conceptual plan preparation . Thus, as part of the implementation, each phase of the Energy
Access Plan, a full technical, financial, economic and environmental evaluation would have to bedone. This would ensure that the project would remain viable even with changes in variables
such as in consumption per capacity, cost of electricity, macro-economic indicators such as
inflation, GDP etc. Also such appraisals would take into account changes in technology and
construction practice as well as determine more accurate costing for the projects.
4.4.2. Project Packaging
For procurement the distribution component may be divided into packages as proposed below:
Package Activity Procurement Method
22 kV and 33kV lines Supply& Erect ICB
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Distribution Substations Supply& Erect ICB
Metering Hardware Supply ICB
Low voltage lines/service
connect
Installation Only NCB
Restrictions may be applied in the bidding documents to ensure that no bidder is awarded a
combination of Packages that may be considered undesirable. Beyond Phase 1 the projects may
as well be packaged by geographic area for management convenience during construction.
4.4.3. Project ManagementAs for the case of the expansion of the transmission network, it is proposed that LEC capabilitiesare enhance in order to be able to properly handling of project procurement from tendering,
through evaluation, negotiation and contract signing.
LEC would be responsible for supervision during construction. In Phase 1 the Management
Consultant con support the implementation of the investments. For subsequent Phases, there
would be the need for technical assistance in the absence of Manitoba Hydro whose current
Contract would have expired.
4.4.4. Institutional Capacity DevelopmentThe need for extensive re construction of the Liberian electricity supply system has been well-
stated. What would be required to complement any such intervention would be the strengthening
of the LEC as an institution. This has begun with the appointment of a Management Consultant,
and will need to continue with a set of specific measures aimed to strengthen capacity of LECs
personnel and improve the attention to the customers and the quality of the service. These
measures are discussed in greater detail in sections 7.1., 7.5 and 7.6 of this document.
In sum, in further pursuit ofLECs strengthening, the following may be needed:
Staff training and development Improved Work Practices and Procedures
ICT systems (including corporate Wide area Network, CommercialManagement System (CMS) and Incident Resolution and ManagementSystem (IRMS))
Procurement of Construction Equipment, Measuring and Testing Equipment. Modern Offices
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An estimate of 12.5% of the proposed capital investment costs are proposed for this purpose.
4.5.Summary of Distribution Investment requirements
Phase Description
Cost
(Million US $)
Phase 1 Distribution Works Monrovia (20132015) $82.4
Phases 2-4 Distribution works Monrovia (20162023) $130.2
Phase 2: Distribution Works All Liberia (20162020) $78.5
Phase 3: Distribution Works All Liberia (20212025) $78.5
Phase 4: Distribution Works All Liberia (20262030) $78.5
Subtotal $448.1
Add 12.5% Institutional Capacity Development* $56.0
Add 10% for Physical and Financial Contingency $44.8
Total for Distribution Investment requirements $548.9M
*Includes Provision for Transmission as well.
5. Demand Supply Balance
5.1.Electricity Demand Projections.
The post-war power sector of Liberia is effectively divided into two segments; the Monrovia areaand the rest of Liberia. The greater Monrovia area currently has some utility service being
operated under a management contract with Manitoba Hydro International. For this segment
there is some data available from the four years of very limited operations. However, the limited
coverage and nature of power network operations in the greater Monrovia area has meant that
there is inadequate statistical information upon which customer characteristics can be derived as
a firm basis for demand projections. Then there is the rest of Liberia which has not had any
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public electricity supply for about two decades and therefore has neither electricity officials in
the field nor recent real-time data on customer characteristics or profile. Accordingly, all
demand forecasts for Liberia must be viewed to have much larger uncertainty than would
normally have been expected.
In 2008 the International Finance Corporation (IFC) projected, based on their willingness to pay
survey of 1000 households that the demand for electricity in Monrovia would come from 20% of
households being connected to the grid within two years. Thereafter the forecasts anticipated
400 additional connections a year until 2020. Demographic growth was projected to add 1.8%
annually to sector demand and economic growth was expected to add another 1.8% per annum.
In the period after this IFC demand projection was prepared the LEC has used more recent data
from its distribution operations to prepare new forecasts.
While recognizing the fundamental uncertainties of forecasting demand for electricity in Liberia
described above, there has been several recent demand projections for Liberia undertaken by the
Liberia Electricity Corporation (LEC) for the greater Monrovia area (2012), and for Liberia as a
whole, an analysis in the document The Options For The Development Of Liberias Energy
Sector (World Bank, 2011), and most recently a study on supply options by Norconsult (2012).
These forecasts assumed to varying degrees that the increase of demand will come from
increased in households connected but also from the connection to the grid of large commercial
and industrial consumers in and outside Monrovia, notably from the agriculture and mining
sectors. On the other hand, little attention is paid to the increase in demand served by off grid
means, except in the projections of the The Options ForThe Development Of Liberias Energy
Sector (World Bank, 2011). While projections for Monrovia are generally comparable in the
three studies, the projections for demand growth outside of the capital diverge significantly inthose studies, reflecting the differences in the underlying assumptions, especially after 2020.
The next paragraph summarizes the scenarios for demand growth that will be used in the rest of
the document, building on these various studies.
Three scenarios for demand growth associated with the on-grid expansion in the country are
presented here. They have been chosen to reflect the decision of the GoL of adopting an
ambitious plan to increase access that assumes the removal of any physical or financial
constraint. First, a high demand and low demand scenarios are defined, using the projections of
the The Options ForThe Development Of Liberias Energy Sector analysis for high and slow
growth, and then a third, expected scenario is developed, using the projections of Norconsult upto 2015/2016, and the ones from the unconstrained LEC analysis up to 2030.
The high demand scenario portrays a situation where LEC is able to attract all major industrial
and commercial customers into it customers base, where there are electricity is available from
either domestic or regional sources as needed, and the expansion of the network has ben
undertaken as planned. The expected scenario is one where no physical nor financial constraints
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hinder the expansion of the network, and electricity is available to meet the demand as it grows,
but in contrast to the first scenario, the evolution of effective demand although increasing at an
accelerated rate, shows a higher price elasticity, and this is reflect in the growth of effective
demand. Last, the low demand scenario is one where there is a significant growth in the
expansion of demand, but that growth is bounded by some constraints in the system, that couldbe financial or physical in nature, such as the difficulties to securing financing for the expansion
of the grid, or an actual growth of effective demand slower than planned, because high tariffs,
reflecting a fuel-based generation, dampen the growth of effective demand.
Adopted On-Grid Demand Projections
2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030
High demand growth 24 66 108.5 189.7 378.1
Low demand growth 24 30 36.0 103.5 159.2
Expected scenario 24 45.4 66.8 117.5 202.1
5.2.Supply projections
The LEC currently has 22 MW installed capacity, all diesel fueled high speed generators. The
effective supply however is about 16 MW after taking into consideration the non-availability of 1
or 2 MW for maintenance reasons, the operation of the generators at 80-85% of rated capacity
for maximum thermal efficiency and the spinning reserve requirement of 2 MW.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
On-Grid Demand Projection (MW) - (Excluding Off-Grid)
AFTEG
OtherGrids
AFTEG
Monrovia
Pessimistic
Growth
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The effective supply will increase from 16 MW to 24 MW when the World Bank/IDA HFO
project starts operation (3Q of 2014) and will reach 32 MW (dry season) or 76.8 MW (wet
season) when Mount Coffee becomes operational (2Q in 2015). The effective supply capacity
will increase by another 8 MW when the JICA HFO plants starts operation (end of 2015).
Accordingly from 2016 the effective supply would be 40 MW (dry season) and 84.8 MW (wetseason) until the WAPP CLSG interconnection commences operations, in 2018, and 18 MW are
added, bringing the total available capacity to 54.4 MW in the dry season and 99.2 MW in the
wet season .
5.3.Supply Options and Least-cost Generation Expansion Plan
The electricity supply sources available to Liberia to meet the shortfall include hydroelectric,
thermal, biomass and the option of regional interconnections. These options have different costs,
and also different lead times. A review of the most recent assessments of unit costs and relative
ranking of the alternative has been carried out in order to rank the plants by cost and establish an
order of preference, and the results are summarized in the table below.
The ranking of plants indicated by the two sources are consistent with each other except for the
ranking of the biomass plant (wood chips) and for the cost of the HFO plant. With respect to the
plant using wood chips, the figure quoted by the Norconsult study reflects the cost included in a
unsolicited proposal received by the Government, and therefore it needs to be seen an upperbound reference, which could be lower if such a project were tendered competitively. This is
why as a starting point for an estimation of the true levelized cost of this generation option, a
benchmarking cost of this type of technology is adopted for now, as a first estimation of the true
levelized cost. Further work through an independent assessment of the costs and benefits of such
plant is needed to produce a more exact figure. In the case of the HFO plant, the Norconsult
study report of 26 cents/kWh was obtained partly from Singapore prices and partly by applying a
0
20
4060
80
100
120
2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ao
Generation Capacity (MW) 2012-2018
Dry season Wet season
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rule-of-thumb approximation; energy costs from HFO plants are about 50% of the costs from a
high speed diesel plant considering the Singapore reference. In contrast, the second column uses
the most recent estimation from HFO, as reported by LEC based on its interaction with private
firms providers of HFO in Liberia: it is expected that the cost of HFO would lead to 25% savings
compared to the cost of the diesel. Using the latest report of fuel cost for generation in the Aprilmonthly report of LEC, the cost for diesel based generation is 42.03 cents/kWh, which thus will
yield a cost of 31cents/kwH for HFO.
The ranking of the plants based on levelized cost having been established in principle, the least-
cost generation expansion plan for Liberia is to seek to exploit these resources in the order of
preference recognizing the capacity available from that source and the realistic lead time for
bringing that source into actual production. Because of this dual dimension of any supply
option, it is recommended that an action plan for the short term includes not only the preparation
of those projects that will be implemented first, but also -- and with the same order of priority--
actions needed to assess or prepare generation options that would come on stream at a later date.
Preparing an achievable least-cost generation expansion plan for Liberia requires an estimate of
the realistic total lead time required for each plant as indicated on the table above. This must
consider the realistic duration for completing the following sets of activities: a) Studies(Financial
Study, EIA etc), project definition, design and documentation, b) engagement with private
sector if the Government wants to develop generation capacity led by private sector to leverage
public resources and use private sector expertise to improve sector performance; c) securing
financing, executive & legislative approvals, d) Off-shore Manufacturing, e) Shipment &
Delivery, and f) Erection/Installation.
The following table shows the summarized order of preference which is based solely on the total
generation levelized cost of the various plants and indicating their estimated lead times.
Supply Source Total Levelised
generation CostInstalled Capacity
Total Est.
Lead-Time
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(US Cents.kWh) (MW) (Months)
Norconsult
Update
as of
June
2012
Mount Coffee (Hydro) 11 16 10 66 36 54
WAPP-CLSG 11 80 60
BRE Wood Chips (Biomass) 24 11-13 20-36 18
SP-1B & 2 (Hydro) 16 23 16 23 198 72
Mano (Hydro) 16 23 90 (50) 84
HFO Plants (WB, JICA,
Government)26 31 30 24
High Speed Diesel (Existing) (LEC
April 2012)42 42.03 22
Diesel (Leasing) (Additional cost
due to premium mobility and
operation)
>42.03 12
Source: Based on Geoscience (1998); Ciampiatti (2009); Stanley Consultants (2008); ESMAP (2007); LECs
Monthly Report (April 2012).
5.4.Demand-Supply gap
Looking at supply demand graphs, one will notice there is a gap of 8 MW from the 2013, which
increases in 2014 to 21.4 MW. Once the Mount Coffee plant becomes operational in 2015, there
is no supply gap during the wet season except for a small one2.3MW-- in 2017, but the gap
continues to increase during the dry season, until it reaches a peak of 47 MW in 2017, and
persists still in 2018 with a gap of 42.8MW, despite the electricity imported from WAPP. This
supply deficit is finally removed in 2019 when the other hydro plants (eg SP-1B &2) commenceoperation.
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The lead time comparison on the above table shows that the leasing or rental of diesel generators
is the quickest way to address any demand-supply gaps. This option is however expensive and
has already been discarded by the Minister as contradicting the decision of Government to avoid
diesel based alternatives.
The ranking of supply options shows that hydroplants in Liberias resource portfolio, the CLSG
regional transmission line, and the options to develop biomass plants using domestic inputs are a
major part ofthe countrys electricity supply strategy, both to expand the electricity available to
the population and as a mean to bring down the cost of generation, and thus of tariffs to endusers. Some of these projects are already under way, ie. the rehabilitation of Mount Coffee and
the connection to the CLSG regional transmission line, but given the potential benefits for the
country, it is recommended to give a strong priority to launch the preparatory work needed to
assess and develop the other projects listed in the table.
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This said, given the lead time for the least cost options to come on stream, it is necessary in the
short term, whilst these preferred supply options are being developed, to consider the next best
options to address the supply gaps that will emerge as early as 2013.
A first step to reduce the supply gap could be the introduction of interruptible tariffs as an option
for commercial and industrial customers who probably have self generation capacity. They will
be offered electricity services at a discount on the understanding that their supply can be
interrupted during peak demand periods or when needed to prevent system overload. This
arrangement has two advantages; it gives the utility the means to reduce peak demand, thereby
postponing the need to invest into new generation capacity, and it also provide economic
incentives to medium and large users to connect to the national grid, helping to increase LECs
customer base. Based on preliminary estimation of the amount of electricity currently self-
generated in Liberia, it is estimated that such a strategy could help reducing the peak demand
between 2013 and 2015 by about 15-20 MW. This is particularly important in 2013, since short
of using leased generation (which has been discarded by the Government), no new generationcan be made available so quickly. To be successful, this approach to manage demand to address
the issue of a supply gap would need to be grounded on a pro-active and clear outreach to clients,
and on a good forecast of the timing when there will be capacity constraints.
Turning now again to the least cost options analysis for generation, HFO plants appear as the
next best option to address the supply gap in the short term, in addition to the management of
demand discussed in the previous paragraph. In this specific case, a faster than usual turnaround
could be achieved by piggy backing on all preparation studies already done for the 10MW WB
project. It will be necessary to update the studies if additional plants are brought into stream, but
this could be done in about 2 months time. Using the expected scenario for demand projections,the supply gap to be closed amounts ranges from about 21.4 MW in 2014 up to 47 MW of
effective supply during the dry season in 2017. Taking into account the need for reserves and the
capacity factor, this mean that about about 30 to 60 MW of additional capacity would be needed
between 2014 and 2017. These additional capacity is needed to complement the dry season
production of the Mount Coffee plant at least until the Via reservoir is constructed to enable the
firming up of the Mount Coffee generation.
5.5.Implementation arrangements for additional generation
The least-cost generation addition plan outlined above, that will enable Liberia meet its
electricity demand comprises the following plants: Mount Coffee hydro, WAPP-CLSG, St. Paul
hydro, Mano River hydro, WAPP Cross-border supply and HFO plants, of which three have
already been identified (Government; WB-LESEP Ad.Fin, and JICA). The recommended
implementation actions in respect of these projects are discussed below.
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i. Mount Coffee Hydro
The reconstruction of the Mount Coffee hydro plant is considered the least cost source
among all the supply options. Rehabilitation is currently underway with the financial
support of various donors including Norway, KfW, EIB and of the Government ofLiberia. This plant was originally commissioned to come on stream in 2016, but it
appears that the GoL is committed to accelerate the process and have the plant back into
operation in 2015. It is recommended that the study of the possible development of the
Via storage reservoir which will mitigate the drop in generation from Mount Coffee
during the dry season, should proceed at the same time but as a separate exercise so that
the construction of the reservoir, if found economically viable, could start as soon as
possible, but that this analysis does not further delay the reconstruction of the Mount
Coffee plant.
ii. St. Paul Hydro
The size of the power plants proposed for construction on the Saint Paul river are such
that this project, if implemented, would have a significant and positive impact on the long
term energy supply capability and security of supply especially in the period from 2020
to 2030. It is therefore recommended that the Government of Liberia commissions the
feasibility and other studies required to inform the decision on its future development. In
addition, the GOL may wish to consider taking the proactive steps needed to reserve or
acquire the target reservoir area in order to limit the disruption, obstacles and challenges
to the future development of these projects.
iii. Mano River Hydro
The Mano River is one of the hydroelectric power prospects included in the least-csot
plan. Although the generation facility associated with this hydro development would not
have as significant an impact as the developments on the St. Paul River, the Mano power
plant will make a contribution. The GOL should therefore work with the other members
of the Mano River Union to advance the preparation and development of the project.
iv. Biomass generation (Wood Chips)Based on the least cost analysis, it would be important for the Government to assess and
conduct a due diligence to determine whether or not there is enough availability of wood
chips in Liberia, whether and how could such plant become a viable proposal and at what
cost, and finally if the answers to the above are positive, to examine the potential to
tender competitively a biomass project to attract private investors with a project that
would be bankable and would be beneficial for the country as well as environmentally
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sustainable. At this point, there are more questions than answers, but given the
uncertainties on the fundamental of the projects, it is difficult to see that biomass
generation would take place in Liberia, unless the Government takes the lead in the
preparatory work to determine its viability.
v. WAPP-CLSG Regional Transmission Line
The WAPP-CLSG regional transmission line, which is under development has a major
and long term role to play in the provision of electricity services to the citizens of Liberia.
The facility will provide Liberian consumers with access to the more competitively
priced generation that is available from some of the other states in the sub-region. It is
also noted that without this facility, the growth of the power sector in Liberia will be
limited by either its indigenous energy sources or by the continued dependence on
expensive imported petroleum products for the generation of electricity.
The WAPP CLSG regional transmission line is also important for Liberia, to the extent
that it includes the construction of the Mount Coffee substation and of the line between
this substation and Monrovia. The Mount Coffee substation is a key element for the
Liberia power system and the CLSG transmission line since this will be the
interconnection point of the regional network with the Monrovia system, and it will
allow to evacuate the power from Mt. Coffee. This interconnection point will allow to
Monrovia, the largest load center, to meet its demand through power exchange with
neighboring countries in the short-term and also to absorb the potential domestic supply
that is generated outside of Monrovia. It is therefore important to ensure that the
substation in Mount Coffee is designed in order to accommodate (i) the reception of theCLSG regional transmission line, (ii) the connection with Mount Coffee hydro plant, and
(iii) the interconnection with the Monrovia power system.
The initial power technical power transfer is up to 149 MW and the available supply
generation in the line will depend on the Purchase Power Agreement that each
government negotiated. In the first phase, Cte dIvoire has already committed to make
available 83MW to the CLSG Transmission Line, Cte dIvoire has already committed to
put 83MW at the disposal of the CLSG, but the allocation among the three countries,
including Liberia will need to be negotiated. For reasons of supply security and minimumcost therefore, it is in the best interest of Liberia to enter into long term supply contracts
for supply over the CLSG. Fortunately, the lead time to the commissioning of the CLSG
is long enough for an interested power provider to make arrangements for an increased
level of supply. It is therefore recommended that the GoL and LEC begin discussions
with credible prospective suppliers, starting with those in Cote dIvoire, to explore
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opportunities for the purchase of additional power and seek commitments for long term
supply at the most competitive price.
vi. WAPP Cross-border
The ongoing WAPP cross-border project will provide electricity supply from Core
dIvoire to several Liberian towns and communities that are close to the border between
the two countries. The authorities in Liberia are encouraged to monitor the progress of
this work and take all actions necessary to ensure the timely execution of these works.
vii. HFO Plants
Of all the plants included in the least-cost expansion plan, the HFO plants are the ones
with the shortest lead time, and the lower up-front capital cost. So these are the plants
being relied upon to bring the quickest relief to the supply shortfall situation that is
foreseen. An analysis of the demand-supply gap has indicated that there would be a gap
of 30 to 60 MW between 2014 and 2017, and there has been an initial analysis of how to
bring in additional 30 MW, either at once or sequentially. This additional generation
capacity could benefit from the preparatory work that is being done now for the 10 MW
WB-HFO plant. It could be undertaken as an IPP led by the private sector, thereby
freeing public resources to be made available for investment in transmission and
distribution. Alternatively, this additional capacity could be procured by scaling up the
current publicly financed project, but this option will give up the possibility of tapping on
to private sector financing, and will use instead public resources with a high opportunity
cost. Both options are currently being analyzed by the Government.
6. Fuel Supply Infrastructure
Given the contribution of the fuel to the cost of electricity and given the decision of the GoL to
develop additional thermal generation capacity in the near future to meet the increasing demand
for electricity that is expected to increase at an accelerated pace over the next decades, it
becomes critical for the Government to secure reliable supply of fuel in sufficient quantities, at
the more competitive price than what is available today in Liberia. These efforts of the
Government in the short term complement the longer term agenda of shifting the generation mix
towards other more cost efficient sources of Energy.
Achieving this objective would require addressing several issues, notably:
Fuel pricing
Commercial arrangements for importing, storing and transporting the fuel
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Infrastructure for importing, storing and transporting the fuel
Role of the Government to lead this process, and ensure that the final solutions adopted
will enlist an active private participation, while avoiding the creation of monopolies in
the commercialization of such a critical input and associated infrastructure.
The paragraphs below give an overview of some of the elements that need to be considered to
address each of these aspects, and a more detailed analysis of possible solutions can be found in
a review of the fuel delivery infrastructure undertaken by OPTEC Energy Services of Canada in
March 2011 as part of a feasibility study for the supply of HFO to Monrovia for electricity
generation.
6.1.Supply Price for Grid-Electricity
The electricity price build-up as reported by LEC (ref. LEC Business Plan, March 2011 and
financial results for Jul2010-Jun2011) and summarized on the table below indicates that fuel
costs were initially expected to contribute about 78% of the total cost of supply excluding
depreciation charges.
Description of Cost Component
Business Plan (March2011)
Actuals
c/kWh
% of Budget
(excl. Dep.)
% of
Actuals
Jul10-Jun11
Depreciation Charge 7 - -
Fuel Cost 32 78% 80%
O&M Costs 5 12% 9%
Administrative Charge 4 10 11%
Total 48 100% 100%
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The financial results for July2010June2011 show that actual fuel costs for the period
contributed 80% of total. The current price for grid-supplied electricity in Liberia is reported t