Download pdf - ECONOMIC AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROWTHindonesiangassociety.com/storage/2016/06/Keynote-3-Harjanto.pdf · 7 east kalimantan 505 523 523 526 8 east sulawesi 0 0 0 0 9 central sulawesi

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ECONOMIC AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROWTH

Source: BPS, processed by MoI 2014

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SECTORS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TW I 2013

TW I 2014

1). Foods, Beverages and Tobacco 11,22 2,78 9,14 7,57 3,34 1,75 9,47 2). Textiles, Leather products and Footwears 0,60 1,77 7,52 4,27 6,06 5,00 3,72 3). Wood & Forest Products -1,38 -3,47 0,35 -3,14 6,18 7,67 5,17 4). Paper and Moulded products 6,34 1,67 1,40 -4,75 4,45 0,64 0,31 5). Fertilizers, Chemical & Rubber Products 1,64 4,70 3,95 10,50 2,21 11,41 -0,07 6). Cement & Non-metallic mineral products -0,51 2,18 7,19 7,80 3,00 3,34 3,93 7). Basic Ferrous Metal & Steel -4,26 2,38 13,06 5,86 6,93 13,14 0,30 8). Vehicles, Machinery & Tools -2,87 10,38 6,81 7,03 10,54 10,51 6,03

9). Other products 3,19 3,00 1,82 -1,13 -0,70 -11,00 18,35

Manufacturing Industry 2,56 5,12 6,74 6,42 6,10 6,69 5,56 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 4,63 6,22 6,49 6,26 5,78 6,02 5,21

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROWTH BY SECTORS


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19,43

25,61

38,53

49,89 51,17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

DOMEST IC INVESTMENT ( IDR TR IL LION )

3,83 3,36

6,79

11,77

15,86

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FOREIGN INVESTMENT(USD BIL L ION )

In 2013, domestic investment increase 2,57% while foreign investment increase 34,74%.

INVESTMENT FIGURES


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73,43

98,01

122,18116,12 113,03

72,39

101,11

126,09139,73 131,4

1,04

-‐3,1 -‐3,91-‐23,61 -‐18,37

-‐40

-‐20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Export Import Balance

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY TRADE BALANCE

In billion USD


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Global Competitiv

eness

World Economic

Forum (The

Global Competitiveness Report, 2013-20

14)

5

Logistic

World Bank (The

Logistics Performance Index and Its

Indicators (2012)

6

Tax

ASEAN Tax

Guide, KPMG (2013)

8

Productivity

APO

Productivity

Database (2013)

5

Electrici

ty

The 23rd Survey of Investment Related

Costs in Asia

and Oceania,

Jetro (2013)

2

Interest

Rate

Trading Economics (2014)

9

Investmen

t Rating

Trading Economics (2014)

5

Legal Minimum

Wage

The 23rd Survey of Investment Related Costs in Asia and Oceania,

Jetro (2013)

7

Ease of doing

business

Doing Business (2014)

7 Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank

INDONESIA IN ASEAN

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IMPORT OF PETROCHEMICAL PRODUCT

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Methanol Ammonia Ethylene Propylene Polyethylene Polypropylene

Value (US$ M

illions)

Petrochemical Products

2010 2011 2012 2013 (s.d. Agustus)


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IMPORT OF CHEMICAL PRODUCTS ABOVE US$ 100 MILLIONS

No HS Code Description 2012 1 3104.20.00.00 Potassium chloride 1,240,580,000 2 2902.43.00.00 P-xylene 959,504,634 3 2901.21.00.00 Ethylene 879,736,575 4 3902.10.90.20 Polypropylene in granule form 783,504,624 5 2905.31.00.00 Ethylene glycol (ethanediol) 457,241,093 6 3901.10.99.10 Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) 455,414,871 7 3902.30.90.10 Propylene copolymers in granule 400,202,444 8 4002.19.90.00 Styrene-butadiene, butadiene rubber 377,091,344 9 2901.22.00.00 Propene (propylene) 375,869,312

10 3901.20.00.00 High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) 368,506,858 11 2809.20.99.00 Phosphoric acids, hypophoric acids 294,193,934 12 2902.20.00.00 Benzene 252,520,360 13 3901.90.90.00 Oth polymers of ethylene in oth form 195,604,290 14 3906.90.99.00 Oth sodium polyacrylate 192,198,520 15 3903.30.90.00 Acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene copolymers 165,270,873 16 3907.60.90.00 Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) 161,971,233 17 2902.30.00.00 Toluene 148,778,946 18 2803.00.40.10 Rubber grade of other carbon black 147,832,536 19 2903.21.00.00 Vinyl chloride (chloroethylene) 114,076,959 20 2901.24.00.00 Buta-1, 3-diene and isoprene 113,907,638 21 3909.50.00.00 Polyurethanes 109,271,537 22 2501.00.90.10 Salt (NaCl >94,7%) 106,999,336 23 2905.11.00.00 Methanol (methyl alcohol) 103,477,092 24 3907.99.90.00 Oth polyesters saturated in oth form 103,247,425 25 3907.40.00.90 Other polycarbonates 102,937,959

TOTAL 8,609,940,393


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Additional Gas Demand For New Fertilizer Industry

Plant Capacity (Tons)

Gas Demand (mmscfd)

Kaltim-5 1,155,000 80

Pusri IIB 907,500 62

Pusri IIIB 907,500 86

Ammonia Urea II PT. PKG

570,000 85

Kujang IC 907,500 86

Total 4,447,500 399

GAS DEMAND FOR INDUSTRY AS RAW MATERIAL

Source: National Gas Balance 2013-2030

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No. Industry 2013 2014 2020 2030

1 Raw Material 1,068 1,068 1,736 1,739

2 Energy Sources 1,091 1,133 1,257 1,279

a. Direct contact with product 485 485 513 514

b. Utilities 606 648 744 765

Total 2,159 2,201 2,993 3,018

in mmscfd

GAS DEMAND FOR INDUSTRY


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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Pupuk Petrokimia

Keramik Kaca

Glassware Semen Logam

Makanan dan Logam Tekstil

Petrokimia Kertas

Lain-lain

797.00 295.00

123.88 81.19

25.30 8.00

80.00 63.66

153.59

35.57 168.54

270.32

129.90

GAS DEMAND FOR INDUSTRY 2013

Others Paper

Petrochemical Textiles

Metal Food & Beverages

Metal Cement

Glassware Glass

Ceramic Petrohemical

Fertilizers

Raw Material Energy (Direct Contact) Energy (Utilities)


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NO REGION 2013 2014 2020 2030 1 ACEH 130 130 130 130

2 NORTH SUMATERA 44 45 49 49

3 SOUTH AND CENTRAL SUMATERA

257 257 278 283

4 WEST JAVA 835 839 919 934

5 CENTRAL 21 21 22 22

6 EAST JAVA 236 254 394 396

7 EAST KALIMANTAN 505 523 523 526

8 EAST SULAWESI 0 0 0 0

9 CENTRAL SULAWESI 70 70 70 70

10 PAPUA 0 0 535 535

11 RIAU 61 61 72 72

12 SOUTH MALUKU 0 0 0 0

Total 2,159 2,201 2,993 3,018

GAS DEMAND PER REGION (MMSCFD)


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GAS DEMAND PER SECTOR (MMSCFD) NO. INDUSTRY 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030

RAW MATERIAL 1.068,22 1.068,22 1.086,22 1.736,22 1.739,32 1.739,32 1 Fertilizers 773,22 773,22 791,22 1.028,22 1.028,22 1.028,22 2 Petrochemicals 295,00 295,00 295,00 708,00 711,10 711,10

ENERGY 1.090,90 1.132,54 1.194,71 1.257,01 1.278,13 1.278,83 a. Direct contact 335,88 336,03 337,18 379,17 379,41 379,41

1 Ceramics 133,70 133,82 133,95 134,68 134,68 134,68 2 Glass 81,19 81,19 81,19 81,19 81,19 81,19 3 Glassware 28,36 28,38 28,38 28,60 28,83 28,83 4 Cements 8,00 8,00 9,00 10,00 10,00 10,00 5 Metals 80,00 80,00 80,00 120,00 120,00 120,00 6 Rubber gloves 4,63 4,65 4,67 4,70 4,70 4,70

b. Utilities 755,02 796,51 857,53 877,84 898,72 899,42 1 Foods & Beverages 54,17 57,72 62,96 68,25 75,11 75,81 2 Metals 148,79 148,88 148,98 134,34 134,63 134,63 3 Textiles 35,89 36,01 36,16 36,98 37,89 37,89 4 Petrochemicals 125,46 157,96 169,96 170,86 170,86 170,86 5 Papers 270,32 270,32 301,92 307,92 319,92 319,92 6 Tires 51,57 51,57 53,30 55,45 55,45 55,45 7 Vehicles 4,50 4,89 4,89 4,89 4,89 4,89 8 Vehicle spare parts 7,57 7,75 7,59 8,26 8,99 8,99 9 Carbides 2,30 2,30 2,47 3,07 3,07 3,07

10 MSG 8,27 8,27 8,27 13,27 13,27 13,27 11 Cocoa 0,57 0,59 0,62 0,68 0,68 0,68 12 CPO dan derivatives 28,32 29,82 39,07 39,07 39,07 39,07 13 Animal feed 2,94 4,03 4,34 5,17 5,17 5,17 14 Basic inorganic chemicals 2,23 2,25 2,34 7,44 7,54 7,54 15 Sorbitol 0,11 0,11 0,11 5,11 5,11 5,11 16 Industrial gas 2,88 2,88 2,88 2,88 2,88 2,88 17 Electronics 6,32 8,35 8,86 11,39 11,39 11,39 18 Other downstream chemicals 2,81 2,81 2,81 2,81 2,81 2,81

TOTAL 2.159,12 2.200,76 2.280,93 2.993,23 3.017,45 3.018,15


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NATURAL GAS UTILIZATION

Source: Indonesia Energy Outlook 2013, BPPT

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1.  There are still export oriented mindset of natural resources and energy such as oil and gas.

2.  The upstream chemical industry are not integrated yet with its downstream industry as well as the oil and gas industry.

3.  The flood of importation petrochemical products coming from ASEAN, China and the Middle East, with the competitive price and the same quality.

4.  Inadequate infrastructure support, for example ports, access roads, power plants, limited of pipelines, and others.

5.  Inadequate of R & D of petrochemical industry both product and process technology.

6.  Some business climate policy need to be adjusted in order to create attractive investment condition.

CHALLENGES

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1.  Develop petrochemical industry by implementing cluster system and Master Plan of Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesian Economy (MP3EI) 2011-2025 through 6 National Economy Corridor.

2.  Support petrochemical cluster development across the nation. •  Sumatera: Lhoksoumawe (PT PIM), Plaju-Musi (PT Pusri and PT Pertamina), •  Java: Banten (PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical), Tuban-Gresik (PT TPPI dan PT

Petrokimia Gresik), Balongan (PT Pertamina and PT Polytama Propindo), Cepu (Pertamina), Cilacap (PT Pertamina).

•  Kalimantan dan Sulawesi: Bontang (PT Pupuk Kaltim), Donggi Senoro (potential gas reserves).

•  Papua: Teluk Bintuni (potential gas reserves).

STRATEGIC POLICIES

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3.  Improving industry competitiveness through creating value added of various raw material (multiple feedstock/ horizontal differentiation) : •  Condensate production: 36 million barrels/year •  Natural Gas Reserves: 153 TSCF •  Coal Bed Methane (CBM) Reserves : 453 TSCF •  Shale Gas Reserves : 574 TSCF •  Coal Reserves : 21 billion tons

4.  Controlling export of raw material by implementing Domestic Market Obligation for a certain commodity (such as naphtha, condensate, LPG, coal, CPO)

5.  Maintaining condusive investment and business climate, through: a.  Tax allowance (PP No. 52/2011). b.  Tax holiday (PMK No. 130/2011). e.  Providing import duties and taxes exemption for raw material and capital goods. f.  Government Borne Duties (BMDTP) for raw and supporting material that is not yet

produced domestically. e.  Government Borne Taxes (PPNDTP) for waste treatment facilities. f.  Harmonizing upstream to downstream import duties.

STRATEGIC POLICIES (CONT’D)

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6.  Develop infrastructure through coordination with other line government institution.

7.  Improving industrial competitiveness by encouraging the utilization of local content in engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) service, plant maintenance service, etc.

8.  Promoting development of methane-based petrochemical (C1). 9.  R&D in gasification technology to produce alternative resources substituting

oil and gas. 10.  Implementating efficient and clean technology.

STRATEGIC POLICIES (CONT’D)

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MASTER PLAN OF ACCELERATION AND EXPANSION OF INDONESIAN ECONOMY

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CENTERS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY

NO. LOCATION GROUP PRODUCT

1. Cilegon, Banten Olefins Ethylene, Propylene, PP, PE

2. Bontang, East Kalimantan

Methane Methanol, Ammonia, Urea

3. Tuban, Gresik, East Java

Aromatics C1

Benzene, Toluene, P-xylene, Ammonia, Urea

4. Muara Enim, South Sumatera

Coal-bed-methane

Ammonia, Urea

5. Teluk Bintuni, West Papua

Methane Methanol, Ammonia, Urea, Polyethylene, Polypropylene

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BANTEN, WEST JAVA

EAST KALIMANTAN

WEST PAPUA

EAST JAVA

SOUTH SUMATERA

CENTERS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY

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METHANE BASED PETROCHEMICAL COMPLEX IN TELUK BINTUNI, WEST PAPUA

Phase I

Phase II

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CLOSING REMARK

1.  As stated into Law No. 3 / 2014 regarding Industry, Government of Indonesia have to secure the availibility of energy and raw material supply.

2.  Industrial sector by 2030 projected to consume gas as raw material and energy sources, approximately 3.018 mmscfd.

3.  Pricing policy set by Government is a key point for industrial sectors to strengthen its competitiveness in confronting ASEAN Economic Community 2015 and other international market.

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