DOES ”SAFETY IN NUMBERS ” HYPOTHESIS REALLY COME TRUE IN CYCLING?
Kalle VaismaaTampere University of Technology, Finland
Safety in numbers Safety in numbers
= the hypothesis that, by being part of a large physical group or mass, an individual is less likely to be the victim of an accident, attack, or other bad event.
Safety in numbers Safety in numbers
Cycling in the Netherlands. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 2009.
Previous research results Previous research results
Jakobsen (2003):If cycling doubles number of accidents increases only 40 %
Robinson (2005):If cycling doubles risk of accidents increases only 34 %
Stipdonk & Reurings (2010):If cycling substitutes short car trips number of cyclists´ accidents increases
Results are conflicting Results are conflicting
City of Odense:Volume of cycling rose 20 % in 1999-2002 number of accidents fell 20 %
City of Freiburg:Volume of cycling rose 20 % in 2000´s number of accidents rose 20 %
Problems in research Problems in research
• Focus is in a short part of cycle way or in one intersection• Researches are based on statistics
• The quality of cycle circumstances are not taken into account
Safety in numbers
Two points of view Two points of view
Factors influence on cyclists´ safety
Factors influence on cycling volume
Connection
WHICH FACTORS INFLUENCE ON CYCLISTS´ SAFETY?
AwarenessAwarenessModerate
Urban structure and land useUrban structure and land useHighly
significantSignificant
Quality of bicycle infrastructureQuality of bicycle infrastructureHighly
significantHighly
significant
Traffic networkTraffic network Highly significant
Car traffic volumeCar traffic volumeSignificant
Legislation and educationLegislation and educationSignificant Significant
Improvement of bicycle
safety
Improvement of bicycle
safety
Growth of bicycle volume
Growth of bicycle volume
Safety in NumbersSafety in Numbers
Highly significant
Moderate
Moderate
Urban structure and land use Urban structure and land use
Dense city
Short trips
Less car traffic
Better safety
Litman & Fitzroy 2012; Garrick & Marshall 2008
Quality of cycling infrastructure Quality of cycling infrastructure
OR THIS?THIS
WHICH FACTORS INFLUENCE ON CYCLING VOLUME?
Pricing of other traffic modesPricing of other traffic modes Moderate
AwarenessAwarenessModerate
Urban structure and land useUrban structure and land useHighly
significantSignificant
Quality of bicycle infrastructureQuality of bicycle infrastructureHighly
significantHighly
significant
Traffic networkTraffic network Highly significant
Car traffic volumeCar traffic volumeSignificant
Legislation and educationLegislation and educationSignificant Significant
Marketing and facilitiesMarketing and facilities Significant
Improvement of bicycle
safety
Improvement of bicycle
safety
Growth of bicycle volume
Growth of bicycle volume
Safety in NumbersSafety in Numbers
Highly significant
Moderate
Moderate
11,0 km6,0 km
Groningen, the Netherlands
Traffic network Traffic network
Quality of cycling infrastructure
Speed
Smooth flow of cycling Route signage Speed compared
to car
Usability
Evenness Parking Convenience
Safety
Continuity of cycling network Cross-section Intersections
• Average speed• Number of stops
• Number and quality of signposts
• Short cuts• Benefits of a
cyclist
• Surface• Topography
• Quantity and quality• Interchange
• Social safety• Aesthetics
• The feeling of safety on the route• Visual guidance
• Width of the route• Curves, turns• Noise, emissions
• Safety• Directionality• Visibility
Quality of cycling infrastructure
Easy, fast, convenient and relaxing to cycle!
WHICH IS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CYCLING SAFETY AND
VOLUME?
Pricing of other traffic modesPricing of other traffic modes Moderate
AwarenessAwarenessModerate
Urban structure and land useUrban structure and land useHighly
significantSignificant
Quality of bicycle infrastructureQuality of bicycle infrastructureHighly
significantHighly
significant
Traffic networkTraffic network Highly significant
Car traffic volumeCar traffic volumeSignificant
Legislation and educationLegislation and educationSignificant Significant
Marketing and facilitiesMarketing and facilities Significant
Improvement of bicycle
safety
Improvement of bicycle
safety
Growth of bicycle volume
Growth of bicycle volume
Safety in NumbersSafety in Numbers
Highly significant
Moderate
Moderate
Conclusion Conclusion
• The factors that influence on cycling volume and safety are the same for the most part
• The safety of cycling is mostly based on the quality of infrastructure
THANK YOU!
Kalle VaismaaTampere University of TechnologyTransport Research Centre Verne