NOTTINGHAM TRENT UNIVERSITY
School of Arts and Humanities
LITHUANIAN ENERGY SECURITY: CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES
by
Aiste KeselyteN0050763
2010
This dissertation is submitted in part-fulfilment of the requirements for the BA (Hons) in International Relations at The Nottingham Trent University. In submitting it the author undertakes that it is substantially the result of work undertaken exclusively for this specific project, and that it is the result of their own endeavour except where indicated through references and footnotes. All other help, material or argument used, other than of the supervisory tutor, is fully acknowledged in the text.
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Table of Contents
Abstract
Chapter One: Introduction 1.1 Introduction to the Area of Study
1.2 Research Goals
1.3 Significance of the Research
1.4 Dissertation Contents
Chapter Two: Theory and Methodology (Literature Review) 2.1. Core Questions and Aims of the Research
2.2. Theoretical Approach
2.3. Methodology
2.4. Concluding Remarks
Chapter Three: Historical Background: Price of Small Country Energy Dependence 3.1. Problem of Energy dependence in Lithuania (dependence in the oil sector; dependence in the gas sector;)
3.2. Russia’s Use of Energy as a Political Weapon
Chapter Four: Thoughts what to do about it 4.1. Lithuanians view on NEGP (North European Gas Pipeline) deal between Germany and Russia – now- NSGP- Nord Strean Gas Pipeline.
4.2. Deepening Regional Cooperation
4.3. Creation of EU Common Energy Policy
Chapter Five: Analysis – Institutions managing energy security 5.1. Is the EU Waking Up?
5.2. US Policy
5.3. NATO (Expert study group report- Madlen Obrait report)
Chapter Six: Conclusion 1500 zodziu6.1. Future of Lithuania’s Energy Security
Bibliography
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Abstract
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Acknowledgements
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CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction to the area of study (separately paged.)
Until the 1970’s and particularly, the oil embargo in 1973 impelled the
Lithuanian Government to realize that dependency on foreign energy suppliers
may have a damaging on the national economy as well as on Lithuanian national
security in the wider context of Foreign Affairs. Therefore the impact of global
energy crises raised a wave of academic research on economic and energy
security. The very concept of “energy security” was linked with protection of
national interests. Energy security is, at its essence, an issue of national security.
National energy security was for the most part defined as adequate energy
supply for a nation and its economy1. Due to the power that energy-producing
states have relative to transit and consumer countries, energy security must be
understood in terms of geopolitics.
After more than 50 years of occupation, Lithuania restored its independence on
March 11, 1990. Since than, it has taken steps to distance itself both politically
and economically from Russia. It has embraced market reforms and, in 2004,
became a member of both NATO and the EU. Yet, Lithuania remains
overwhelmingly dependant on Russia for both oil and natural gas. As Lithuania is
still an “energy island” in the EU system, Russia’s increasingly aggressive energy
policy, and dependence Lithuania’s dependence on Russia as the only supplier of
the energy sources Lithuania requires, represents a huge energy security risk.
Energy security is, at its essence, an issue of national security.
The gas cut off to Ukraine on January 1, 2006 is often called a “wake-up moment”
for Europe. Europeans become aware of their over-dependence on Russian gas.
Since the first days of Lithuania’s independence, energy security has been one of
1 Tatyana A. Mitrova, Global Energy Security, Moscow, 2006, p.4.http://en.g8russia.ru/agenda/nrgsafety/opinion/1.htmt [accessed 2010 07 03]
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the most sensitive issues of economic and political survival of the state, as owing
to its history of Soviet occupation, Lithuania’s energy infrastructure is oriented
eastward. Its main oil and gas pipelines must travel from Russia through
neighbouring Belarus before they enter Lithuania. Lithuania is wholly dependant
on Russia, as it has no pipeline connections with the European Union.
Whilst Russia has historically been a reliable energy supplier to Western Europe,
it has often used strong-arm tactics in Eastern Europe. Lithuania, in particular,
has had direct experience with Russia’s use of energy as a political weapon. Of all
EU and NATO members, the Republic of Lithuania, finds itself in a particularly
difficult situation with regards to energy security. It has no domestic natural gas
reserves, and its limited oil reserves are estimated at only 1.63 million tons2.
Bordering Latvia in the north, Belarus to the south and east, and Poland and the
Kaliningrad region of Russia in the south and southwest, Lithuania relies on
Russia for 90% of its oil and 100% of its natural gas supply.
2 Zeyno Baran, white paper, p.1.
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1.2 Research goals
This dissertation will first discuss Russia’s use of energy as a political tool,
providing the context for Lithuania’s energy “insecurity”. It will then briefly
discuss US and EU efforts to develop policies toward improving the situation.
This study will next outline recent developments regarding Nord Stream, the
Mažeikių refinery, and the Ignalina reactor. Finally, this dissertation will
concentrate on Lithuania’s options for achieving energy security: connecting
with Europe, constructing a new nuclear plant, and accessing new sources of oil
and natural gas, including LNG.
The dissertation research goals are:
1. Describe Lithuania’s energy security dilemma.
2. To set Lithuania’s energy security in the institutional context including EU
and NATO.
3. Analyze and evaluate Lithuanian energy security.
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1.3 Significance of the research
National security, energy security, and cooperation in the energy sector between
Russia and the West have become a-popular subject. Lithuania has witnessed
that its energy security is impaired by not only Russian, but also their Western
partners’ unfriendly policies. Unfortunately, from back in the times of the
industrial revolution energy security has been a national matter, often much
dearer than “friendship”3. The period 2006-2007 could possibly mark the
beginning of a new stage in the development of international relations and the
international energy supply system. On January 1, the day Russia took over the
G8 presidency, Russian state-owned gas monopoly “Gazprom” cut off gas
supplies to the Ukraine. The Ukrainian incident was only another step in former
President Vladimir Putin’s strategy to strengthen Russia’s already strong
position in the Eurasian and European energy markets. This was a bold move
given that G8’s key issue that year was energy security. The Ukrainian incident
was a “wake-up call” for many people and Governments in Western Europe.
Today an ever-increasing role is played by threats to energy security. In recent
years, this problem has become particularly urgent in Europe because of the
change in the policies of the Russian Government. Russia’s conflicts with its
nearest neighbours, Belarus and Ukraine, over gas and oil prices, show its
aspirations to eliminate transit countries from participating in oil and gas
processing and transportation4. According to Gediminas Vitkus Russia’s attempts
to hinder, in every way possible, the implementation of alternative pipeline
projects, which circumvent Russia, the development of a more uniform European
Union energy policy, testify that energy issues in modern Europe are becoming a
part of their new agenda5. Recognizing energy security risk, US Vice President
Dick Cheney underlined on May 4 at the 2006 Vilnius Conference that “No
legitimate interest is served when oil and gas become tools of intimidation or
3 Kęstutis Budrys, EU- Russia Energy Dialogue and Lithuania’s Energy Security, Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review, Iss: 18, 2006, p: 1-48, on www.ceeol.com p.1.4 Gediminas Vitkus, p. 25.5 Gediminas Vitkus p. 25.
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blackmail, either by supply manipulation or attempts to monopolize
transportation”6.
A separate discussion could be held on the causes and the probable
consequences of such changes in the policies of the Russian Government.
However, I will not discuss this, since the primary objective of this dissertation is
not Russia, but Lithuania and its response to the current reality. This dissertation
intends to highlight Lithuanian interests and show that Lithuanian and Western
policy makers have to come to take action against Russian political and economic
aggression, because if the virtual Russian monopoly increases any further, then
Western European countries will have difficulty resisting Russian political and
economic pressure. Bullshit
6 Vice President’s Remarks at the 2006 Vilnius Conference, May 4, 2006, p. 6. http://merln.ndu.edu/archivepdf/russia/WH/20060504-1.pdf [accessed 30/07/2010]
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1.4 Dissertation contents…… describe dissertation plan. Good idea
At the beginning of the dissertation, a brief overview of the significance of energy issues on the global scale will be provided. A deeper analysis of the impact that energy issues have on Lithuanian energy security will follow.
In order to provide a full picture of the situation under investigation for the reader, a description of the context and origins of Lithuanian energy dependence and insecurity in the energy sector follows. (Where is it?)
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CHAPTER TWO
THEORY AND METHODOLOGY
Understanding the connection between a theoretical framework and the
research topic is a crucial aspect of any academic research. This chapter presents
the theoretical framework of the project and describes the methods employed in
the research. It explains the techniques, concepts and tools used for collecting
and analysing the data. It also provides a concise review of how research was
conducted.
2.1. Core Questions and aims of the research
This dissertation will first discuss Russia’s use of energy as a political tool,
providing the context for Lithuania’s energy “insecurity”. It will then briefly
discuss US and EU efforts to develop policies towards improving the situation.
This study will next outline recent developments regarding Nord Stream, the
Mažeikių refinery, and Ignalina reactor. Finally, this dissertation will discuss
Lithuania’s options for achieving energy security: connecting with Europe,
constructing a new nuclear plant, and accessing new sources of oil and natural gas,
including LNG.
The project also aims to analyze the direction and intensity of the energy geopolitics
played between Russia, Lithuania and European Union. Utilizing an analytical
framework based on liberal institutionalist thinking, this paper seeks to uncover and
analyze Lithuania’s energy security dilemma. Moreover, this paper tries to analyze
the basic theoretical framework of liberal institutionalism and the way in which
elements of this perspective can be applied to set Lithuania’s energy security in the
institutional context including EU and NATO.
Hypothesis
Lithuania is stuck between Western Europe and Russia with all the resulting
effects on its energy security, and none of the parties are interested in changing
this situation. At present, there have been signs of developing the measures,
which could neutralise Lithuania’s vulnerabilities in the energy sector. However,
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many of them are beyond the means for a small state or even a group of states.
This dissertation states that the development of a new order enables Lithuania to
substantially improve its security status. That is based on the theory of the
formation of international regimes. This change lies in presenting European
Commission as a common focal point for energy policy, including security.
2.2. Theoretical Approach
As mentioned on the previous page, the research has been conducted within
Liberal Institutionalist theoretical framework, which is based on the premise
that institutions are an important mechanism of achieving international security.
Its core idea consists to demonstrate that institutions (stemming from norms
and regular practices) build a basis for stability and security of economic
relations. The process of legalization of international relations stems from the
juridical ideology: respect for law leads to a better security7. Liberal
Institutionalism largely operates within the Realist framework, but argues that
international institutions are much more important in helping to achieve
cooperation and stability. According to Robert O. Ethane, a leading liberal
institutionalist and Lisa L. Martin, “institutions can provide information, reduce
transaction cost, make commitments more credible, establish focal points for
coordination and, in general, facilitate the operation of reciprocity”8. Liberal
Institutionalist helps to overcome the problem of anarchy. This theory is drawing
on theoretical ideas developed outside international relations to explain why
anarchy inhibits collaboration and how to promote regime formation9. According
to John Baylis, international institutions themselves are unlikely to eradicate war
from the international system but they can play a part in helping to achieve
greater cooperation between states10.
One of the main characteristics of the neo-realist approach to international
security is the belief that international institutions do not have a very important
7 Reader IR theories. 2.8 Keohane and Martin, 1995: 429 John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owes, The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations, 4ed, p. 303.10 Baylis, p. 233.
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part to play in the prevention of conflict. Institutions are seen as being the
product of state interests and the constraints, which are imposed by the
international system itself. According to neo-realists, it is these interests and
constraints, which shape the decisions on whether to cooperate or compete
rather than institutions to which they belong11. These views have been
challenged by number of international relations specialists and states people. For
example, the British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd made the case in June 1992
that institutions themselves had played, and continued to play, a crucial role in
enhancing security, particularly in Europe12. This view is also shared by a
distinctive group of academic writers, which developed since the 1980s and
early 1990s. These writers share a conviction that the developing pattern of
institutionalized cooperation between states opens up unprecedented
opportunities to achieve greater international security and cooperation.
More than a decade ago, realists and neo-liberal scholars collided over the
efficiency of institutions to initiate and sustain cooperation among states. Johns J.
Meaesheimer’s article “The False Promise of International Institutions” in
1994/95 issues of International Security13 attempted to represent the inherent
weaknesses of institutionalist theories, particularly liberal institutionalism. He
strongly argued that institutionalist theories were defective and had minimal
influence on state behavior14. In response to Mearsheimer’s critique, Robert O.
Ethane and Lisa L. Martin claimed that institutions mattered in the conduct of
state behavior and the task was to “discover how, and under what conditions”15.
Because according to the authors, international institutions play the main
mediating role and act as the principal means to achieve and maintain
cooperation between states, as mutual interests of the states minimize
differences, pave the avenues for cooperation16. Liberal scholars such as
11 Baylis, p. 232.12 Baylis, p. 233.13 Johns J. Meaesheimer “The False Promise of International Institutions” in 1994/95 issues of International Security14 Mohammed Nuruzzaman “Liberal Institutionalism and Cooperation in the Post- 9/11 World”, p. 1. Emeile detales.15 Keohane and Martin, 1995: 40.16 Mohammed Nuruzzaman “Liberal Institutionalism and Cooperation in the Post- 9/11 World”, p. 2. Emeile detales.
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Ethane17, Nye18, Axelrod19, Haas20, Levy, Lipson21 and Milner22 states that, states
become willing to cooperate once institutions are seen as beneficial.
There are two contending research/theoretical approaches within political
science, which identify themselves as Institutionalist today: Rational Choice
Institutionalist and Historical Institutionalist (is it Liberal Institutionalist?). The
role institutions play in these two analytic traditions overlaps in many ways. In
both schools, institutions are important for politics because they structure
political behavior. However, theoretical, particularly, epistemological goals of
scholars in these two schools separate them in some rather fundamental way.
Analyst Douglass North has provided a crucial contribution to institutional
analysis. According to his definition, institutions are “the rules of a game in
society or, more formally, are the humanly devised constraints that shape human
interaction”23. North suggests that institutions provide the constraints under
which decisions are made but that individuals and organizations can alter those
constraints24. North belongs to the Rational Choice perspective of institutional
analysis, which believes that institutions are created purely out of the goals they
are attempting to reach. For Rationalist scholars, as for a highly regarded
Rational Choice Institutionalist scholar at Harvard, Morris Fiorina the central
goal is to uncover the Laws of political behavior and action, as she believes that
once these laws are discovered, models can be constructed that will help us
understand and predict political behavior25.
Historical Institutionalist are primary interested in understanding and
explaining specific real world political outcomes. They do not argue that
17 Keohane 1984, 1989……18 Keohane and Nye, 2000…..19 Axelrod and Keohane, 1985….20 Haas, Keohane and Levy, 1993….21 Lipson, 1984….22 Milner, 1992….23 Douglass North, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance: Political Economy of Institutions and Decisions, 1990, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 3.24 Douglass North, “North’s institutionalism and the prospect of combining theoretical approaches”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 26, Nr. 2, p. 217-235.25 Morris Fiorina…..
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institutions are the only important variables for understanding political
outcomes. Quite the contrary, these scholars generally see institutions as
intervening variables through which battles over interest, ideas and power are
fought26. According to Steven Steimo, institutions are important both because
they are the focal points of much political activity and because they provide
incentives and constraints for political actors and thus structure that activity.
Rather than being neutral boxes in which political fights take place, institutions
actually according to the author, structure the political struggle itself27.
Different institutions deal differently with energy security problems. In this
dissertation I will analyze European Unions (EU) and NATO capability to deal
with energy security problems facing not jus Lithuania but Europe as well. The
issue of energy security becomes particularly important since the energy shocks
of the 1970s, when present asymmetries between the geographical distribution
of resources and energy consumers had been consolidated by oil shortages in the
petroleum-dependent countries. Since then, the energy security has been
integrated into the debates of the IR theories. I will use liberal institutionalism
theory in my dissertation. I will argue that institutions can create peace and
cooperation out of international anarchy, and that international institutions are
important in helping to achieve grater cooperation and stability between states.
Epistemological and ontological foundations
Knowing about ontology and epistemology is important as it helps us be aware
of the biases and limitations of our chosen research strategies. The general
epistemological viewpoint of this dissertation is interpretive, the view that all
knowledge is a matter of interpretation. Truth is not absolute, but decided by
human judgement. It’s about understanding ‘meaning’ of action from actor’s
perspective28. Thus, one of the main objectives of this research will be to explore
the ways in which Lithuania make sense of they world29. According to
26 Reader 3.27 S Steimo, “The new Institutionalism” Barry Clark and Joe Foweraker (eds.) The Encyclopedia of Democratic Thought, London: Routlege, July 2001.28 Judith L. Green and Gregory Camilli, Handbook of Complementary Methods and Education Research, look at amazon.29 Williams, 1996 dissertation.
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interpretivist epistemology, knowledge is “derived from day-to-day concepts and
meanings”30. The emphasis of this epistemological approach is on understanding
what is happening in the given context, not explanation.
Interpretivist positions of the research are based on anti-fundationalist
ontology. The world is viewed as socially constructed and cannot be accessed
directly31. From this perspective, knowledge is theoretically and discursively
laden, and therefore, value-free analysis is impossible. This ontological position
also entails the axiological attitude of the project, which adheres to the belief that
‘knowledge is information in action’32.
2.3. Methodology
This study seeks to explore Lithuania’s energy dependence on Russia as one of
the most problematic threats for economical security of Lithuania. Given the
nature of enquiry, Qualitative approach seems particularly appropriate for this
project. Qualitative methods deliver more in-depth understanding of the social
and political processes and are especially good in situations, which are complex
and involve a number of different issues. Moreover, Qualitative research seeks to
understand phenomena in context-specific settings and aims to provide
illumination of multiple perspectives33.
Nonetheless, the research involves the integration of quantitative and qualitative
method tools. The information analyzed in the dissertation is presented in both
narrative and numerical/graphical forms, as a combination of quantitative and
qualitative methods can be highly effective in making the most of the strengths of
the research. The quantitative data includes gas prices, volume of export,
expenses, maps and other relevant variables.
In order to assess energy security of Lithuania the notion has to be precisely
defined. What is energy security? Energy security is a complex definition.
30 Kirk at al… dissertation, 200631 Cruickshank, 2003.32 Nordin et al 2008.33 Hoepfl, M.C. 1997. Choosing qualitative research: A primer for technology education researchers. Published by: Journal of Technology education 9 (1).
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President of CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Association, Inc) – one of the
most famous think-thanks in energy politics – Daniel Yergin gives the following
definition of energy security: “the aim of energy security is to ensure adequate,
reliable energy supplies at reasonable price and so as not to jeopardize the main
national values and objectives”34. In a similar way the European Commission and
the International Energy Agency define it as the provision of reasonably priced,
reliable and environmentally friendly energy35. The World Energy Council in
1992 defined a national energy security as “a state of protection of individual
citizens, society, economy and nation from threats to reliable fuel and energy
supply”36.
The particular definition of energy security may depend on specific interests of
national states. There could be specified several groups of countries, where
different interpretations of energy security could apply. Characteristics of
Lithuanian economy and energy sector, given in Tomas Janeliūnas and Arūnas
Molis article at Research Journal of International Studies indicates that Lithuania
should be put among the countries of the first and fourth group (see table 1.
Approaches to energy security in different groups of countries). Therefore in this
dissertation we will define energy security following priorities of Lithuanian
energy security for the most part not very different from West European
countries.
Three main tasks for ensuring energy security of Lithuania:
1. Ensuring reliable energy supply and functionality of energy
infrastructure;
2. Diversification of energy supply sources;
3. Reduction of dependence on energy sources import (by reducing energy
intensity and switching to alternative or renewable energy sources)37.
Literature reviewIn order to analyze and investigate Lithuanian energy security challenges and
perspectives I analyzed Dr. Tomas Janeliūnas, Dr. Arūnas Molis, Dr. Zeyno Baran,
34 D. Yergin, “Energy Security in the 1990s”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 67, No. 1, Fall 1988, p.111.35 Sascha Muller-Kraenner, Energy Security (London: Earthscan, 2008) p. xi.36 Russia’s Security. Legal, Social, Economic, Scientific and Technical Aspects. Energy Security (Energy Industry and State). Moscow: MGF Znanie, 200, p. 304. Article molis.37 Janeliunas and Molis, p. 14-15.
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Gediminas Vitkus, Kęstutis Burdys, Keith C. Smith, Tom Rostoks, Arianna Checchi,
Arno Behrens and Christian Egenhofer and many other author works to be able
give good Lithuanian energy security analysis.
Dr. Tomas Janeliūnas, an associate professor at the Institute of International Relations
and Political Science of Vilnius University and the Editor of the Lithuanian Foreign
Policy Review, former States Security Department officer and analytic, indicates that
Lithuania has faced many challenges on energy security, however the situation in the
energy sector has not undergone much change. Lithuania is still rather isolated
regarding energy infrastructure. Author states that solution for this difficult situation
requires strong regional cooperation, as political initiatives are not sufficient to initiate
development in energy sector. Dr. Arūnas Molis, who’s academic interests include
EU foreign, security and defence policy, NATO transformation, political and
economic processes of the Central and Eastern European States, Russian foreign
policy, energy security supports the same views as Tomas Janeliūnas on Lithuanian
energy security. According to both authors problem of Lithuanian energy security and
dependence on Russia is acute from the restoration of the independence and that this
problem is not solved yet. According to the authors the main structural changes in
Lithuania’s energy security sector could take place only if EU will consolidate its
Common Energy Policy38.
Authors state that energy dependence on Russia is one of the most problematic threats
for the economical security of Lithuania. Dr. Gediminas Vitkus, professor of the
Political Science Department at the Lithuanian Military Academy, supports Dr.
Tomas Janeliūnas and Dr. Arūnas Molis position. Author indicates that as
Lithuanian energy structure was essentially established in the ‘60s, ‘70s, and ‘80s
of the last century and this infrastructure creates serious problems to Lithuanian
energy security. It creates gas dependence on Russia’s supply, the absence of
electricity network links with other European countries. Author indicates that as
gas sector remains completely dependant on the Russian Gazprom’s supplies
situation of Lithuanian energy security remains unfavourable. According to the
38 Tomas janeliunas and molis, p. 31.
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author, Lithuania cannot solve its own energy problems without the
participation of its neighbours and the European Union39.
Kęstutis Budrys, adviser to the Lithuanian President, is not so pessimistic about
Lithuania’s energy security. Author indicates that January of 2006 Russia’s cut off
of natural gas supplies to Ukraine was a turning point to Lithuanian energy
security, as this blockade destroyed the regime of energy relations between the
Western Europe consumption zone and the Russian production zone, which
formed a unique situation requiring the development of a new regime that must
meet the interests of Lithuania, among others40. Author indicates that there have
been signs of developing measures, which could neutralise Lithuania’s
vulnerabilities in the energy sector. However, many of them are beyond the
means of small country or even a group of states. According to the author, that
not before the energy sector becomes a “normal” business submitting only to the
laws of economy will it submit to other, geoenergetic, laws41.
Zeyno Baran, director of the Centre for Eurasian Policy and a Senior Fellow at the
Hudson Institute located in Washington D.C, interested on issues ranging from
US-Turkey relations to Islamist ideology to energy security in Europe and Asia is
one of the authors who helped me to highlight Lithuanian energy security
problems. According to the author the lack of reliable and sustainable access to
energy is a clear threat to European security, therefore enhancing EU energy
security cooperation is essential to withstand Russian pressure42. Author’s views
contribute to Kęstutis Budrys indications on energy security problems facing
Lithuania, and that institutional helps is required.
Keith C. Smith currently a senior associate in the CSIS New European
Democracies Project, former U.S. ambassador to Lithuania, in CSIS report
“Russian Energy Politics in the Baltics, Poland, and Ukraine: A New Stealth
39 Gediminas Vitkus, Russian pipeline diplomacy, p. 46.40 Kestutis Budrys “EU- Russia energy dialogue and Lithuanian’s Energy security” P.4641 Kestutis budrys, p. 2.42 Zeyno Baran, “EU Energy Security: Time to End Russian Leverage”, The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2007, p. 133.
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Imperialism?” highlights special relationship between Russian energy companies
and influential business leaders in Central Europe, Baltic States, Poland, and
Ukraine. In his monograph author attempted to create as accurate picture as
possible of Russia’s use of its energy power and the political and security risks
that this substantial power, if unchecked, poses for the creation of a Europe
whole and free43. Author indicates that energy dependence in and of itself not
poses a serious threat to a country’s political or security system. The key is,
according to Keith C. Smith, is to limit an energy supplier’s influence, that means,
recipient country’s ability to diversify its sources of energy imports44. However
we will see that Lithuania has difficulties in doing so, as Lithuania become locked
into a Moscow- direct energy supply network during the 70 years of the Soviet
Union’s existence.
Toms Rostoks concentrates on regional energy security problems, and helps to
identify that EU that wields considerable potential for improving energy security
of the member states, among them and Lithuania45. In his the article based on the
results of the research project “Energy: pulling the Baltic Sea region together or
apart?” carried out by the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA) author
also indicates that security and business interests may cause friction in the
energy debate, as security interests force governments to be more influential in
the energy sphere while commercial interests point in the opposite direction and
suggests that energy sphere should be not become the battle ground between
national governments and should instead be left to business interests. Toms
Rostoks aims to outline the main reasons that facilitate and those that hamper
energy cooperation thus pushing countries toward finding individual solutions
to their energy problems46.
2.4. Concluding remarks
Most of the current literature on Lithuania’s energy security focuses on
Lithuania’s energy dependence on Russia. Authors indicate that Lithuania has
43 Keith C. Smith. P. vi44 Keith Smith, p. 27.45 Toms Rostoks, 150.46 Tom Rostoks, p. 144.
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faced many challenges on energy security, and the situation in the energy sector
has not much change. Lithuania is still rather isolated regarding energy
infrastructure. As a result of this, many commentators tend to exaggerate
Russia’s ability to use oil and gas as “weapons” to augment Russian influence
over its neighbors and on the world state.
The findings of the literature review also indicate that regional cooperation and
EU could change current unfavorable energy security situation in Lithuania. As
enhancing EU energy security cooperation is essential to withstand Russian
pressure, not just in Europe, but in Lithuania as well.
CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION: In Pursuit of Energy Security
CONCLUSIONS: FURURE OF LITHUANIA’S ENERGY SECURITY
The Lithuanian energy infrastructure was essentially established in the ‘60s,
‘70s, and ‘80s of the last century. This infrastructure was meant to serve the
interests of the Soviet Union and not those of Lithuania. The problem of
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Lithuania’s dependence on Russia is dire from the restoration of the
independence. That problem is not solved yet. Even more – after Russian
government started to use energy companies as instruments of its foreign policy,
threats to Lithuania’s energy security have grown.
In Kęstutis Budrys words, Lithuania has witnessed that its energy security is
impaired by not only Russia’s, but also Western partners unfriendly policy47.
However, there have been signs of developing the measures, which could
neutralise Lithuania’s vulnerabilities in the energy sector. It is clear that
Lithuania cannot solve its own energy security problems without the
participation of its neighbours and the EU. The main structural changes in
Lithuania’s energy security sector according to Tomas Janelūnas and Arūnas
Molis, could take place only if EU will consolidate its Common Energy Policy48.
This task is very complicated keeping in mind those EU members has different
energy security priorities because of different energy sources and energy import
routes. Diversification of energy supply sources for biggest EU countries is
secondary or even thirdly task in energy policy. Most of the old EU countries give
priority to bilateral dialog with energy suppliers and speak for more effective
usage of the existing instruments. It is clear that Lithuania needs to take a very
proactive position in its EU policy to ensure the security interest in energy
sector. With some help from others new members of EU it is possible to avoid
bilateral deals beneficial only for some national states but not for the whole EU49.
This dissertation presented detailed information on Lithuanian energy security
challenges and perspectives. However there are some limitations of the research
as the sources used in the project present a distorted view of the problem of
energy security of Lithuania due to personal bias of the author.
It is clear that the greatest progress in Lithuanian energy infrastructure has been
made by the oil sector. This sector, in spite of the undeclared blockade pursued
by Russia, is continuing to successfully function due to the Būtingė marine oil
47 Kestutis budrys, p. 1.48 Janeliunas and molis, . 30. 49 Janeliunas and molis, p. 31.
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import and export terminal build in 1995-199850. Būtingė marine investment today
has proven to be success from both the financial and geopolitical standpoints as it
guarantees to some degree Lithuanian energy security. Electric energy sector have
made some progress. The building of electric networks links in 2006 and 2007
between Baltic States, Scandinavia, and Poland should be considered a substantial
achievement. However gas sector remains one of the most political problems in
Lithuania energy sector. A complete dependence on Russia’s state owned company
Gazprom’s supplies is the weakest link of the Lithuanian energy security.
Energy security issues in modern Europe are becoming a part of their new
addenda, because of a change in the policy of Russia. Russia’s conflicts with its
nearest neighbours, Belarus and Ukraine, over gas and oil prices, show its
aspirations to eliminate transit countries51. While many European countries still
foster certain illusions about Russia, the Lithuanian politicians do not. Lithuanian
politicians and general public do not hide any doubts that Russia will make
attempts to employ its new advantages that have emerged because of
considerable increase in energy source prises. Consequently, the energy and
pipeline business developed by Russia during recent years is seen in quite
different context.
Lithuania plays no role in the transit of natural gas to other European nations. A
hypothetical cut off of supplies to Lithuania would therefore not attract much
attention in Western Europe. NEGP is only one of the projects, which indicates
Russian desire to create favourable conditions for resource supply, to decrease
dependence on transit countries and to make considerable influence on energy
importing countries. This project also will increase Lithuania’s energy insecurity.
Even though NEGP reduces possibilities of the Baltic States and Poland to resist
one-sided Russian energy policy, it also gives new impulse for solving the energy
security problems by common efforts. Baltic and Central European countries
have got a chance to strengthen regional cooperation in the energy sector.
Besides that, they have attracted the attention of the EU member states on
50 Gediminas vitkes, p. 45.51 Gediminas vitkus, p. 25.
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threats, which may arise from dependence on one energy supplier. There are
already actions taken while trying to build alternative pipelines of gas and oil
supply. Even NATO joined the discussions on state energy supply.
The research has been conducted within Liberal Institutionalist theoretical
framework, which is based on the premise that institutions are an important
mechanism of achieving international security. My dissertation presented a
liberal institutionalist explanation of Lithuanian energy security. By applying the
elements of liberal institutionalism, such as relative gains problem, we could
identify issues facing Lithuanian energy security. According to John Baylis,
international institutions themselves are unlikely to eradicate conflict from the
international system but they can play a part in helping to achieve greater
cooperation between states52. Liberal scholars such as Keohane, Nye, Axelrod,
Haas, Levy, Lipson and Milner states that, states become willing to cooperate
once institutions are seen as beneficial. We could see that progress has been
done. Lithuania together with other states, EU and NATO institutions stated to
cooperate in energy security sector.
Liberal institutionalist approach has proved to be useful research model for
describing Lithuanian energy security problems. The study achieved its goals of
developing a better understanding of Lithuanian energy security challenges and
perspectives, and presented plausible explanations of the issue. The research has
shown that although Lithuania is still facing energy security risks, institutions
play an important role in Lithuanian energy security sector.
The research suggests that the Russia may have a powerful position as a major
energy supplier, but it cannot dictate terms in its relations with the rest of the
world. As Rutland indicates, no single country or company is capable of exerting
decisive influence over the energy market. Trade is a relationship of mutual
benefit and dependence between buyer and seller, and use of trade as a
“weapon” can hurt the supplier as much as the customer53. This dissertation
52 Baylis, p. 233.53 Rutland, P. “Russia as an Energy Superpower”, New Political Economy, Vol. 13, Nr. 2, June 2008. dissertation
24
demonstrated that not before the energy sector becomes a “normal” business
submitting only to laws of economy would it submit to other, geoenergetic,
laws54.
54 Kestutis budrys, p. 2.
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